NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[WelshBloke]

Well... in all honesty... with how quickly these are being rushed out (vs. previous vaccines that take literally years to develop)... Do you want to be first in line? Or wait it out another month if you don't have anywhere to go anyhow?

A combination of antibody testing and a vaccine would be an absolute game changer. I'd be at the front of the queue for one!

 

[Ichinisan]

Are you asserting that covid does not mutate?

No.

Coronavirus doesn't seem to mutate and recombine / adapt as quickly as influenza. SARS and MERS burned out before a vaccine could be developed. SARS, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2 are all separate zoonotic transfers that did not come from a previous human coronavirus.

 

[Ichinisan]

If the phase 3 safety and efficacy data looks good, yes. I'd be at the head of the line.

Even if something is approved in the last few months of the year they've been putting it in arms since the spring so another month or even a few probably isn't going to tell you anything about the safety profile that isn't already known. Most of the time savings is being realized by not pausing between trial phases, manufacturing at risk, and throwing a ton of cash at the effort.

Well, the hypothetical "front of the line" being discussed would make you one of the data points for determining the safety and efficacy. If you wait for safety + efficacy to be determined, you aren't really at the front of the line.

With that said, I'm willing to be a data point.

 

[gill77]

No.

Coronavirus doesn't seem to mutate and recombine / adapt as quickly as influenza. SARS and MERS burned out before a vaccine could be developed. SARS, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2 are all separate zoonotic transfers that did not come from a previous human coronavirus.

So what efficacy are you expecting for any vaccine that is months away?

 

[zinfamous]

Am I understanding you correctly?

How could you personally know "400" people who died from it? That would mean you personally know thousands or millions of people who recovered from it.

I only know ONE person who was confirmed to have it. A sister of my friend. I haven't seen her in 15+ years. She got it from church and recovered months ago.

...it's Dave.

 

[Ichinisan]

So what efficacy are you expecting for any vaccine that is months away?

If a future vaccine has any efficacy at all, it will probably be near 100% effective.

Flu shot is not one vaccine. It is multiple vaccines for multiple. The yearly flu shot's effectiveness for the targeted strains is closer to 100% than "40%"

 

[CZroe]

So what efficacy are you expecting for any vaccine that is months away?

I think he made that clear originally when he said that the flu vaccine is nearly 100% effective for the strains it targets. I don't know if that's true but he's saying that is a better comparison and, thus, what he bases his expectations on.

I feel that there are enough endemic Coronaviruses already out there for this to have a recombination event and create new yearly strains just like flu does but it will be relatively easy to make a vaccine that covers them all if this happens and we may be able to stop it anyway since spread will be slowed as we continue to take the measures we are already taking.

 

[zinfamous]

If a future vaccine has any efficacy at all, it will probably be near 100% effective.

Flu shot is not one vaccine. It is multiple. It is closer to 100% effective for the targeted strains in a yearly flu shot.

As I understand it, the various Covid vaccinations will cover the, I think ~3 more prominent strains. Yes, it doesn't mutate as quickly as Flu, but there are primary strains that will all be included in the vaccine(s)

 

[mopardude87]

I keep seeing the slang " Herd immunity" then decided to google it up and found this, whats the take on this? Its interesting, but were people really that crazy to attempt being deliberately infected so then they could be immune?

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Protecting Health, Saving Lives—Millions at a Time.

www.jhsph.edu

 

[Ichinisan]

I keep seeing the slang " Herd immunity" then decided to google it up and found this, whats the take on this? Its interesting, but were people really that crazy to attempt being deliberately infected so then they could be immune?

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Protecting Health, Saving Lives—Millions at a Time.

www.jhsph.edu

It's not really "crazy" to let healthy people develop an immunity by deliberate infection if there was no other way. Not specifically talking about coronavirus.

Anyway, I'd be willing to let myself get deliberately infected for scientific analysis because I don't have any health complications. Of course I would need to completely isolate myself.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

It's not really "crazy" to let healthy people develop an immunity by deliberate infection if there was no other way.

Especially if you can do so without all the financial implications that we are going through now (that will continue for the next 2 years)

What we continue to not talk about with this whole outbreak is
#1: The death rate for healthy and young individuals is really incredibly small.
#2: The amount of deaths we have that are significantly contributed to because of general american unhealthiness is staggering. No one wants to discuss this.

We should be advocating during this time to stop staying home and drinking all day. We should be advocating that half of Americans are deficient with Vitamin D. All of these are things that contribute to your chance of dieing with COVID.

 

[gill77]

I am not sure how you can divorce your ability to choose the right target from efficacy. It's like a doc telling you that you would be cured if he had not given you the right drug, but ok.

The idea that there is going to be a vaccine with a zero percent efficacy that would be administered seems a bit crazy. Maybe it is just me.

Assuming that is not going to happen, we are to reasonably expect a 100% effective vaccine within months? Or if we do see one, it will be near perfect?

 

[CZroe]

I am not sure how you can divorce your ability to choose the right target from efficacy. It's like a doc telling you that you would be cured if he had not given you the right drug, but ok.

The idea that there is going to be a vaccine with a zero percent efficacy that would be administered seems a bit crazy. Maybe it is just me.

Assuming that is not going to happen, we are to reasonably expect a 100% effective vaccine within months? Or if we do see one, it will be near perfect?

I think they are more concerned with severe side effects from a rushed vaccine. Efficacy is not their only concern. I expect it to be very effective. Many are concerned simply because it was rushed and they expect unforeseen consequences (sickness, reactions, long-term effect, etc). I think it's an unreasonable concern myself since anything beyond acceptable risk would likely be detected earlier even with the fast-tracked vaccine.

 

[Svnla]

I went to fill up gas late last night (around 11:30 p.m.) and at the gas station, there was a SUV right next to my pump with 5 girls (2 front, 3 back) and they were in skimpy dresses (tight pants/halter tops) and none of them had any mask on.

 

[mopardude87]

It's not really "crazy" to let healthy people develop an immunity by deliberate infection if there was no other way. Not specifically talking about coronavirus.

Anyway, I'd be willing to let myself get deliberately infected for scientific analysis because I don't have any health complications. Of course I would need to completely isolate myself.

True if its in a controlled environment, i am more worried if people at home got the idea and go for it . I thought about perhaps offering myself as a test subject for the vaccine, but i intake a particular herb of sorts on the daily for various reasons. It may alter any tests, even if studies suggest this herb can help calm down Covid. Don't even think that study has been confirmed nor denied, its currently being worked on.

Maybe if its confirmed, then perhaps i will give it more consideration. I know a few people who do this herb and donate blood a few times a week. Maybe its not that big of a deal? With science things need to be exact or damn close, i would hate any tampering with results due to what i do.

 

[gill77]

I think they are more concerned with severe side effects from a rushed vaccine. Efficacy is not their only concern.

That really is the key. I remember one expert saying that if you want a vaccine, he could have one for you in the morning. You need something ready to take to market.

I understand they thought they had a SARS vaccine, but it turned out to give people heart attacks.

 

[Ichinisan]

I am not sure how you can divorce your ability to choose the right target from efficacy. It's like a doc telling you that you would be cured if he had not given you the right drug, but ok.

The idea that there is going to be a vaccine with a zero percent efficacy that would be administered seems a bit crazy. Maybe it is just me.

Assuming that is not going to happen, we are to reasonably expect a 100% effective vaccine within months? Or if we do see one, it will be near perfect?

While there's some expected variation in the SARS-CoV-2 viruses, determining what constitutes a new "strain" is not an exact science [more specifically: there is no definition to define what constitutes a distinct strain]. Some people are already trying to say there are multiple "strains" of SARS-CoV-2, but it doesn't really have any differentiating properties other than slightly different genes that can be identified via sequencing. Probably just propagations from a few early super-spread events and not worthy of being identified as their own "strains" when their genetic differentiation isn't much different than what you see between two individuals.

Basically we currently have no reason to believe that SARS-CoV-2 will need to target multiple strains. We can't really even act like multiple "strains" exist until we see some differentiating property.

 

[gill77]

While there's some expected variation in the SARS-CoV-2 viruses, determining what constitutes a new "strain" is not an exact science. Some people are already trying to say there are multiple "strains" of SARS-CoV-2, but it doesn't really have any differentiating properties other than slightly different genes that can be identified via sequencing. Probably just propagations from a few early super-spread events and not worthy of being identified as their own "strains" when their genetic differentiation isn't much different than what you see between two individuals.

Basically we currently have no reason to believe that SARS-CoV-2 will need to target multiple strains. We can't really even act like multiple "strains" exist until we see some differentiating property.

So do you expect a 100% effective vaccine within months?

 

[nakedfrog]

I went to fill up gas late last night (around 11:30 p.m.) and at the gas station, there was a SUV right next to my pump with 5 girls (2 front, 3 back) and they were in skimpy dresses (tight pants/halter tops) and none of them had any mask on.

Well, which is it, skimpy dresses or tight pants/halter tops?

And naturally, this being ATOT, PODNH.

 

[Svnla]

Well, which is it, skimpy dresses or tight pants/halter tops?

And naturally, this being ATOT, PODNH.

I think 3 in tight pants/tops and 2 in short dresses. I think they were heading to clubs but did not ask.

And no pic because a) they were a bit young and b) not my type (not much on tops - almost flat but good size bottoms). One of them was very cute and nice but the others were alright but nothing spectacular.

 

[gill77]

While there's some expected variation in the SARS-CoV-2 viruses, determining what constitutes a new "strain" is not an exact science. Some people are already trying to say there are multiple "strains" of SARS-CoV-2, but it doesn't really have any differentiating properties other than slightly different genes that can be identified via sequencing. Probably just propagations from a few early super-spread events and not worthy of being identified as their own "strains" when their genetic differentiation isn't much different than what you see between two individuals.

Basically we currently have no reason to believe that SARS-CoV-2 will need to target multiple strains. We can't really even act like multiple "strains" exist until we see some differentiating property.

Mutation is the game that is fundamental to the success of viruses. They use host cells and don't have to worry about a mutation being detrimental to cells, since they have none.

It was probably over a month ago that someone released a study which tracked the spread of the virus worldwide. He produced a diagram similar to the tree of life which showed the different "strains" throughout the world. His contention was that there were six identifiable strains. The criticism was whether it was was six or sixty different strains one could identify on the diagram. It is more semantics than anything else.

Identifying mutations is now a precise and computer driven exercise, but implementing vaccines is far more complex. There is tremendous variability among humans, so finding a vaccine that will be effective for them and not harm them is problematic, especially when the virus is a moving target.

 

[nakedfrog]

I think 3 in tight pants/tops and 2 in short dresses. I think they were heading to clubs but did not ask.

And no pic because a) they were a bit young and b) not my type (not much on tops - almost flat but good size bottoms). One of them was very cute and nice but the others were alright but nothing spectacular.

Fair enough, it's just one of those ATOT things

 

[dmcowen674]

Am I understanding you correctly?

How could you personally know "400" people who died from it? That would mean you personally know thousands or millions of people who recovered from it.

I only know ONE person who was confirmed to have it. A sister of my friend. I haven't seen her in 15+ years. She got it from church and recovered months ago.

The little town area I grew up on Long Island was the highest number of cases and deaths in the Country. It killed Teachers I had in School, Police, Firemen, neighbors and their kids, just on and on. I grew weary from asking if they got any drugs to combat the cytokine storm while on ventilator. Only one person recently got Remdisver and looks like will make it. The rest got nothing so they all died. It was a horrible couple of months.

 

[dmcowen674]

Dave is special. He even has to show ID to buy vinegar from supermarkets.

It was Balsamic Vinegar from Italy, that must have made it special.

 

[dmcowen674]

Edit: sorry for all the lost you dealt with

My small group here in Indianapolis we went through before they were calling it Covid-19. My friend Jim went in the hospital 3rd week of January and had to go on the ventilator for 6 days. The admin at his job came back from Seattle at a convention and she was sick the next day at work. She went to the hospital and put on a Ventilator. They announced her as the first death in the state from Covid-19 on Feb 6th. 5 more people from his job died, one as late as 2 weeks ago. I took a charger and cable to his bedside when he first went in. His wife was sent home and I had to stop at CVS to get her Tamiflu prescription because she was too weak to get out of bed. About a week later I had a fever for a week and felt like crap and tightness in my chest but did not require any hospilization, didn't even go to the doctor. Other friends had various symtoms like the worst case of diareahea ever for a week. So I'm sure we all had it but it wasn't know as the Covid virus yet. Was not fun.