NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,833
8,302
136
Hey, this is NY, NYC actually? Density defined in the USA. It's analogous to a nuclear reaction. Get it under control quick or you have a disaster. I wouldn't second guess them, I'm sure Cuomo is conferring with a team of experts. NYC was IIRC the worst situation we've had in the USA so far with this.
From NYTimes article in today's online edition:


ALBANY, N.Y. — Michigan shut down indoor dining and in-person classes at high schools and colleges. Washington banned indoor gatherings with anyone outside your household without a weeklong quarantine. And officials in Oregon closed offices to the public and are limiting the number of people in grocery stores.

As record numbers of virus cases emerge across the United States, major cities and states are implementing tough new restrictions. But in New York State, once the epicenter of the pandemic, the response to a second wave has been far more measured, with officials banking on a variety of less disruptive, targeted actions, often reliant on voluntary compliance.

Ominous signs are everywhere: In New York City, Mayor Bill de Blasio closed in-person classes at the city’s schools starting Thursday when the seven-day positivity rate rose above 3 percent on Wednesday. Thousands of new cases are emerging every day statewide, and hospitalizations have more than quintupled since early September, topping 2,200 on Wednesday. Deaths have also been trending upward, with the state reporting nearly 200 deaths in the last week, and 35 just on Wednesday, the highest one-day total since mid-June.

The numbers are also spiking in some areas that were spared the worst in the spring: Western New York has seen about 3,700 new cases in the last week alone, with rates of positive test results running above 5 percent.

ImageTourism is down in New York City, but officials fear that the holidays could spark a resurgence in the virus, as many people return to or visit the city.
Tourism is down in New York City, but officials fear that the holidays could spark a resurgence in the virus, as many people return to or visit the city.Credit...Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times
All told, 12 counties around the state are seeing significant outbreaks, from Brooklyn to Buffalo.

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo says his response to the pandemic continues to be aggressive and highlights his state’s achievements: New York is still seeing much lower rates of infection than most states. And the number of daily deaths and hospitalizations pales in comparison to the spring, when thousands died for several weeks running, and tens of thousands were sickened.

Still, some public health experts and officials worry that without a broader shutdown, the state might not be able to limit the virus’s spread, particularly as residents tire of restrictions and the holidays near.

“The odds are against us at this stage in terms of keeping it under control,” said Dr. Isaac Weisfuse, a former New York City deputy health commissioner.

On Wednesday, during an unusually combative news conference with reporters in Albany, Mr. Cuomo displayed a slide that ranked New York among the states with the lowest positivity rates in the country.

“The whole world is going up,” Mr. Cuomo said, adding, “Every state is the nation is going up, right? So success becomes what? How you’re doing relative to everybody else.”

But when asked if the rising rates meant his current targeted approach was falling short, Mr. Cuomo took offense and, raising his voice, chided the reporter: “New Yorkers are doing a great job, and don’t demean them.”

The defensive posture from Mr. Cuomo, a third-term Democrat, is striking considering the confident air he’s projected since the early days of the pandemic.

For three months, the governor held daily news conferences, providing hard data and reassurance to the country, even as thousands died in New York. He closed schools and nonessential businesses, required masks and social distancing and ramped up testing and contact tracing.

The measures made New York’s approach a model for flattening the curve, but it also had a devastating effect on the economy: More than one million New Yorkers lost their jobs, and the city and state were saddled with multibillion-dollar budget deficits.

Now, as the virus has shown clear signs of a resurgence, Mayor de Blasio has closed school buildings and voiced concern about indoor dining, which resumed in limited fashion in the city at the end of September. But Mr. Cuomo, who has ultimate authority over closing restaurants and schools statewide, has not pushed for either.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,833
8,302
136
With I think every state having increased confirmed cases and TG one week away and Xmas on the horizon, plus colder weather coming on I think conservative actions/pronouncements by public figures are very much in order.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,420
7,335
136
What's better: wait for cases to climb to higher than 5% positivity and THEN close for a big time interval while waiting for cases to return to a "more manageable level", or close now while the case numbers are getting high already but still under the 5% threshold so that the closure period isn't as long because it's much easier to get to a "more manageable level" starting from a lower "baseline"?
I would think the current issue is that officials are being somewhat arbitrary: closing schools where there isn't substantial evidence of spread, at least at lower grade levels, while leaving gyms and restaurants open.
 
Reactions: K1052

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,806
29,557
146
Ah. So they are racists who fail to consider Americans as individuals each with their own merit and don't trust their screening and mandatory isolation processes. Got it.

nationality is a race? who knew?

But no, that's a ridiculous argument. population-wide as I explicitly said, is how you have to make decisions. It's part of triage. In a situation like this, you make the best guess over what you expect the average outcome to be. Plainly and inarguably, the American population is vastly more dangerous when it comes to virus spread that any currently known national population. This is completely indisputable based on data. Especially considering, over the summer, when much of the world and certain parts of the country saw a steady decline, only the US stood alone! in a patriotic display of ignorance and irresponsibility, by displaying massive spikes and infections in order to insure the virus kept it's wonderful foothold on the human population.

Any respectable national governing body would look at the population data, and rightfully decide that this population is a clear threat to the rest of humanity. It is no other way.

But please, find another way to quibble with proper epidemiological containment strategies.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,806
29,557
146
Test positivity for students and staff at NYC schools was like 0.25% even as the city itself breached the 3% limit. The problem isn't the schools, at least not below HS level. Europe has largely kept their schools open as restrictions went back into place and they're seeing cases decline.

I think as has been mentioned before, if you are just looking at within schools, and ignoring the vast infrastructure that requires schools to be open and active--transporting your kids, increased grocery shopping and other shopping....so, more adults and kids interacting with more adults and kids throughout the city, then you aren't really getting an honest number on the actual impact of what it means to keep schools open.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,831
34,771
136
I think as has been mentioned before, if you are just looking at within schools, and ignoring the vast infrastructure that requires schools to be open and active--transporting your kids, increased grocery shopping and other shopping....so, more adults and kids interacting with more adults and kids throughout the city, then you aren't really getting an honest number on the actual impact of what it means to keep schools open.

Probably less of an impact than keeping the restaurants and gyms open, which they still are. Seeing the case declines in Belgium and France who kept their schools open during new rounds of confinement would lead me to believe this is much less of a problem than other activities.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,833
8,302
136
The positivity rate in my county is now over 20%. Our hospitals are now at maximum capacity.
Really a bad time to come down with it. I think we're at 40-50% capacity here and it has doubled in the last few weeks. I don't see how it's not going to spike in mid-December with TG one week away.
 
Reactions: Captante

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,898
12,365
126
www.anyf.ca
My city had talked about implementing a curfew, but it would screw over lot of shift workers and being a mining town there is lot of people who work shifts... Not sure how it helps anything really, does the virus only come out at night? lol.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,831
34,771
136
I think the virus can spread at any hour. Curfew seems silly.

Well it is less tight than a lot of countries did where you could not leave your home period or do so without government permission.

Anything that cuts movement and interaction is probably going to be somewhat effective. I kind of thought the 10PM thing was strange too but apparently states have consulted with restaurants and the late crowd follows the rules less which after a previous life in customer service does comport with my experience.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,833
8,302
136
I think it was Michael Osterholm who said a 6 week lockdown would throw a blanket over this thing. A 10-5 curfew, well, it would at least bend people's minds, and that's a big part of getting them to take it seriously. I think we really need that right now. You're gonna hear a lot over the next week about people wearing masks, SD, and keeping in their bubbles as much as possible. Probably to continue for 2-3 months, and not stop until 2nd quarter 2021 at least.
 

sactoking

Diamond Member
Sep 24, 2007
7,547
2,759
136
What are people most likely to do after 5pm? Go to restaurants and bars.

Where are you most likely to contract COVID in general? In restaurants and bars.
 
Reactions: Captante

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Lockdowns are stupid. I'm with Elon Musk. "Give people back their goddamn freedom."

Wear a mask and go about your business. Lockdown hurt the poor the most.
 
Reactions: ultimatebob
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
What are people most likely to do after 5pm? Go to restaurants and bars.

Where are you most likely to contract COVID in general? In restaurants and bars.
Has that really been factually proven yet?

Vs. being surrounded by people outside at an event?

I just haven't seen facts yet that sitting at distanced tables has been a major contribution in the slightest.

Maybe bars that are more of the standup / dance variety, but not general restaurants.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,445
126
Well it is less tight than a lot of countries did where you could not leave your home period or do so without government permission.

Anything that cuts movement and interaction is probably going to be somewhat effective. I kind of thought the 10PM thing was strange too but apparently states have consulted with restaurants and the late crowd follows the rules less which after a previous life in customer service does comport with my experience.

While I hate the idea of curfews, it kinda makes sense for bars and restaurants. Drunk people aren't good about wearing masks, and simply don't do social distancing. Touchy-feely close talking drunk folks are COVID spreading machines!
 
Reactions: K1052

H T C

Senior member
Nov 7, 2018
566
407
136
Lockdowns are stupid. I'm with Elon Musk. "Give people back their goddamn freedom."

Wear a mask and go about your business. Lockdown hurt the poor the most.

They ARE NOT: the problem with lockdowns is their cost to both the public AND the country enforcing it.

If governments had the funds to PAY ALL THOSE that are forced to NOT work during lockdowns @ least ... say ... 66% of their normal salary (layoff??) to try and make sure they don't lose their jobs, lockdowns would be mandated much sooner than they actually were.

Think about it:

- those that are forced to stop, they lose their income
- governments, not only they have a lot more expenses than normal with healthcare (PPE, Ventilators, etc), but they also lose A LOT of income in the form of taxes, so they are actually hit TWICE

Simply put, no government can afford "proper" lockdowns for a long enough period, such as one required to battle this pandemic. All you need to do is look @ ANY country that enacted a lockdown and check how much GDP they are expected to lose THIS YEAR because of it.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,833
8,302
136
6 weeks. Then pandemic under control, and testing, monitoring, contact tracing, but economy revved up. Yeah, finance it, gotta pay people, ban evictions, firing, etc. during those 6 weeks. Osterholm didn't just pull this out of his ass, he's one of the nation's top epidemiologists.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,833
8,302
136
Lockdowns are stupid. I'm with Elon Musk. "Give people back their goddamn freedom."

Wear a mask and go about your business. Lockdown hurt the poor the most.
People who base their policy on concepts like give people their freedom are fools and in denial. We know that Musk isn't particularly smart in terms of politics. He's a gung ho businessman who's into certain areas of science, not others.
 

CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,195
856
126
Well it is less tight than a lot of countries did where you could not leave your home period or do so without government permission.

Anything that cuts movement and interaction is probably going to be somewhat effective. I kind of thought the 10PM thing was strange too but apparently states have consulted with restaurants and the late crowd follows the rules less which after a previous life in customer service does comport with my experience.
Depends. In many cases it might concentrate people who otherwise would've spread out over the course of the day.
 

sactoking

Diamond Member
Sep 24, 2007
7,547
2,759
136
Has that really been factually proven yet?

Vs. being surrounded by people outside at an event?

I just haven't seen facts yet that sitting at distanced tables has been a major contribution in the slightest.

Maybe bars that are more of the standup / dance variety, but not general restaurants.
Just Google it and you can find dozens, even hundreds of articles talking about the riskiest activities and bars and restaurants are at the top of pretty much every one.

Link
 
Reactions: Muse
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
Just Google it and you can find dozens, even hundreds of articles talking about the riskiest activities and bars and restaurants are at the top of pretty much every one.

Link

The absolute last thing I care about is what journalist think of a scientific question. Nor do I really care what someone like Fauci says unless it's in the context of an actual study with specifics mentioned.

Like - the concept of saying a restaurant is ok - but a bar is BAAAAAAAD is quite hilarious. One simply serves food and the other one doesn't. I suspect what they are referring to are certain types of bars that are more club-ish and not just a bar that serves alcohol.

A lot of these types of questions require a variety of questions to be answered in order to study - but it seems like people are generalizing and fear-mongering instead of sticking to facts.
 
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