NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

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local

Golden Member
Jun 28, 2011
1,851
515
136
If we exclude Iran, the global morality rate outside of China is now below 1%. There are about 100 people in serious condition, but, for now, confirmed cases are outpacing deaths by at least a factor of 100.

And I expect that to continue right up until the point where the healthcare system gets overwhelmed like Wuhan.
 

Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
4,107
6,137
136
And I expect that to continue right up until the point where the healthcare system gets overwhelmed like Wuhan.

Most likely, yes. It could drop substantially below .75% or something, and then balloon back up. There are too many unknown factors to really determine where it's going to end up, and it's going to vary wildly from country to country.
 

Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
30,316
10,814
136
Unfortunately about the only thing we can do is wait and watch. I wouldn't panic though and aside from avoiding big crowds I won't be changing my daily routine beyond using copious amounts of hand-sanitizer when I handle my drivers paperwork after airport pickups.
 

Scarpozzi

Lifer
Jun 13, 2000
26,389
1,778
126
as far as covid19 goes: From the choice of aspirin,ibuprofen,tylenol what is most effective to giving some relief from fever,discomfort associated with the flu like symptoms?
I mix Acetaminophen and Ibuprofen (Tylenol/Advil)...they are processed by liver/kidneys, respectively and can be mixed. Advil is a fever reducer, but will do more to help reduce inflammation. Tylenol is much better at reducing fever.
 

Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
30,316
10,814
136
I mix Acetaminophen and Ibuprofen (Tylenol/Advil)...they are processed by liver/kidneys, respectively and can be mixed. Advil is a fever reducer, but will do more to help reduce inflammation. Tylenol is much better at reducing fever.


Oddly I find Acetaminophen more effective at relieving sore throat pain too. For me Naproxen is more effective then Ibuprofen though especially for muscle pain.
 
Nov 17, 2019
12,127
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I have water available at my taps just for the opening that I pay for every month whether I use it or not. No reason to buy something else to throw away.

Plus, do you know where those bottles have been or if anybody with cooties has touched them?
 
Reactions: Captante

MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
8,938
8,144
136
Currently, in the US the flu is worse. Will it stay that way? I don't know.
That is only a talking point and is a false dichotomy.

It is true that more people have the flu than Covid-19, however Covid-19 is 20 to 40 times more lethal.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
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Just went to the grocery store, still plenty of food and water available, so everyone hasn't gone batshit crazy yet.

Bought a handful of frozen pizzas for extra preserved meals just in case, and a couple of large bags of dry rice + dry beans just in case I need some down the line. Should be pretty set, can't think of much else I'll need since we don't plan to go anywhere.
 

TheVrolok

Lifer
Dec 11, 2000
24,254
4,090
136
Covid-19 is 20 to 40 times more lethal.

All really early data so far, so we don't really KNOW that yet. The false dichotomy is comparing the early and loose data on Covid-19 with the old and significant data we have on seasonal flu.

If I had to speculate, I would say that Covid-19 will likely have a higher CFR, but that's just speculation.
 

MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
8,938
8,144
136
All really early data so far, so we don't really KNOW that yet. The false dichotomy is comparing the early and loose data on Covid-19 with the old and significant data we have on seasonal flu.

If I had to speculate, I would say that Covid-19 will likely have a higher CFR, but that's just speculation.
The CDC and many other people that are experts in the field of communicable diseases say it has a higher mortality rate. The factor is debatable due to limited data at this point, but many times more lethal.

But what the hell do doctors know? Would you base your personal health care on witch doctors, faith healers, or Karen on facebook, or those that have spent a decade studying medical science?
 
Reactions: Captante

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,986
1,388
126
Latest news - WHO is saying this is highest level of alert/risk - https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/...0-intl-hnk/h_27a7eeed180e54e7ff3f59f4db825053

Uh oh. Dow is down over 1K points (for now) and S&P 500 is going down fast. The markets around the world are in the red 7 days in a row. About $3.4 Trillion USD from the stock market (S&P 500) has been wiped out in a week.

Beside Nestle, L'Oreal is cancelling all business trip, Unilever is restricting business trips to/from Italy and other affected countries. Many large business events/conventions are cancelled. Airlines, hotels, convention centers, car rental companies, catering services, etc, are in deep financial trouble.
 
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MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
8,938
8,144
136
If we exclude Iran, the global morality rate outside of China is now below 1%. There are about 100 people in serious condition, but, for now, confirmed cases are outpacing deaths by at least a factor of 100.
According the the CDC, 8% of the US population contract the flu each year. Assuming 8% of Americans contract COVID-19, with a mortality rate of 1%, that would mean 264,800 deaths. What if the morality rate is closer to 2%, now we are talking half a million.

How many people can your local hospital keep in quarantine and treat at one time. If the hospital is full of quarantine patients where will accident, stroke, heart attack, and other life threatening patients be treated?
 
Reactions: DarthKyrie

DarthKyrie

Golden Member
Jul 11, 2016
1,544
1,304
146
According the the CDC, 8% of the US population contract the flu each year. Assuming 8% of Americans contract COVID-19, with a mortality rate of 1%, that would mean 264,800 deaths. What if the morality rate is closer to 2%, now we are talking half a million.

How many people can your local hospital keep in quarantine and treat at one time. If the hospital is full of quarantine patients where will accident, stroke, heart attack, and other life threatening patients be treated?

Most people don't feel comfortable talking about such things, so they avoid even thinking about it. I know New Hampshire hospitals couldn't handle it, I'm pretty sure the rest of New England is in the same boat.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,810
126
Iceland ... now a member of covid19 confirmed cases club
I was considering going to Iceland in June for the Tesla Investors Club world gathering. But this coronavirus is the reason I didn't book the trip last month.

lol of all places....

Now we just need Antarctica.
Iceland is really beautiful. I really want to visit. There are lot of cheap flights all over Europe to Iceland because of the discount airlines. Plus direct fight from New York to Iceland is cheap and popular. I'm not surprised coronavirus is in Iceland. It's pretty much everywhere in the world at this point. They just don't know it or hiding it.
 
Reactions: DarthKyrie

TheVrolok

Lifer
Dec 11, 2000
24,254
4,090
136
The CDC and many other people that are experts in the field of communicable diseases say it has a higher mortality rate. The factor is debatable due to limited data at this point, but many times more lethal.

You may want to revisit what the CDC and other people are saying. Much of it is using couched language, "We anticipate" "we suspect" "we fear" whatever the case may be, this is speculation. That's all I'm saying.

This week's MMWR published today:
Areas for additional COVID-19 investigation include 1) further clarifying the incubation period and duration of virus shedding, which have implications for duration of quarantine and other mitigation measures; 2) studying the relative importance of various modes of transmission, including the role of droplets, aerosols, and fomites; understanding these transmission modes has major implications for infection control and prevention, including the use of personal protective equipment; 3) determining the severity and case-fatality rate of COVD-19 among cases in the U.S. health care system, as well as more fully describing the spectrum of illness and risk factors for infection and severe disease; 4) determining the role of asymptomatic infection in ongoing transmission; and 5) assessing the immunologic response to infection to aid in the development of vaccines and therapeutics. Public health authorities are monitoring the situation closely. As more is learned about this novel virus and this outbreak, CDC will rapidly incorporate new knowledge into guidance for action.

We. Do. Not. Know.

Will the CFR mirror that of China's? Maybe? I suspect it'll be slightly less but probably still well above seasonal flu, but as I have said that's speculation.

I have made essentially the same point over and over and over again, and all I have been saying is that I think sensationalism is bad, preparation is good, and that using PRECISE language is very important at times like this because people like to interpret things themselves and that should be kept to a minimum when things are more nuanced than first glance (like epidemiology of a young and active outbreak).

But what the hell do doctors know? Would you base your personal health care on witch doctors, faith healers, or Karen on facebook, or those that have spent well over a decade studying medical science?
I'm still young, so I don't have decades of experience, but I've spent over a decade now studying medical science. I'm very pedantic about it, because I think it's incredibly important.[/QUOTE]

Edit:
I haven't actually had a chance to sit down and really read through this article yet, although I will tonight/tomorrow, but JAMA has a nice article based on the data from the Chinese CDC.

As of the end of February 18, 2020, China has reported 72 528 confirmed cases (98.9% of the global total) and 1870 deaths (99.8% of the global total). This translates to a current crude CFR of 2.6%. However, the total number of COVID-19 cases is likely higher due to inherent difficulties in identifying and counting mild and asymptomatic cases. Furthermore, the still-insufficient testing capacity for COVID-19 in China means that many suspected and clinically diagnosed cases are not yet counted in the denominator.2 This uncertainty in the CFR may be reflected by the important difference between the CFR in Hubei (2.9%) compared with outside Hubei (0.4%).1,2 Nevertheless, all CFRs still need to be interpreted with caution and more research is required.

This furthers my point. Even in China there is a significant debate about the actual CFR. Will see see a CFR similar to what is current being observed outside of Hubei? Or one closer to what's being seen within Hubei? Don't know yet. Sitting there and pretend there is certainly in a time of uncertainty is dangerous.
 
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Reactions: Captante
Feb 4, 2009
35,209
16,667
136
Say you spray an object (door handle,cell phone) with lysol or give it wipe with something like a clorox wipe exactly how long you need to wait before its safe to handle? a couple secs or a minute?

Per Clorox’s influenza instructions 15 minutes (I think) for 99.9% clean.
 

Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
4,107
6,137
136
According the the CDC, 8% of the US population contract the flu each year. Assuming 8% of Americans contract COVID-19, with a mortality rate of 1%, that would mean 264,800 deaths. What if the morality rate is closer to 2%, now we are talking half a million.

How many people can your local hospital keep in quarantine and treat at one time. If the hospital is full of quarantine patients where will accident, stroke, heart attack, and other life threatening patients be treated?

I don't disagree with your concerns. I'm just stating the facts as they are being reported. Just a 1% mortality rate will indeed be terrible, and I find it pretty probable that more than 8% will get infected.

HOWEVER, what we don't know is how many people are infected and are not being reported. We are in the middle of cold and flu season, and I can easily see many people simply writing their symptoms off as standard cold season sickness, which is almost certainly contributing to the rapid spread of covid-19. People with little-to-no symptoms are much more likely to fly under the radar than moderate-to-severe people, which could contribute to an inflated mortality rate.
 
Reactions: DarthKyrie and pmv

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
38,350
8,660
136
I wouldn't say that picking up a small supply of non-perishables is overreacting, just being prudent. If supply lines go to shit, I don't wanna be the one wiping my ass with pine cones, literally and figuratively speaking.
Doh! You mean I gotta add ass-wipe to my shopping list?
 

MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
8,938
8,144
136
HOWEVER, what we don't know is how many people are infected and are not being reported.
And it is very likely that 8% figure for the flu reflects only those diagnosed/treated within the medical system. My grandson had the flu a couple of weeks ago. He just stayed home and felt miserable for 4 - 5 days.
 

TheVrolok

Lifer
Dec 11, 2000
24,254
4,090
136
And it is very likely that 8% figure for the flu reflects only those diagnosed/treated within the medical system. My grandson had the flu a couple of weeks ago. He just stayed home and felt miserable for 4 - 5 days.

He was tested flu positive?
 

echo4747

Golden Member
Jun 22, 2005
1,979
156
106
I was considering going to Iceland in June for the Tesla Investors Club world gathering. But this coronavirus is the reason I didn't book the trip last month.


Iceland is really beautiful. I really want to visit. There are lot of cheap flights all over Europe to Iceland because of the discount airlines. Plus direct fight from New York to Iceland is cheap and popular. I'm not surprised coronavirus is in Iceland. It's pretty much everywhere in the world at this point. They just don't know it or hiding it.

I wouldn't cancel the trip due to just a single case in Iceland ( definitely would wait it out for 2-3 weeks to make sure cases arent multiplying) Iceland is a place I'd really like to visit one day as well. OTOH If I won a contest for an all expense paid trip to Italy right now; I would decline it. Honestly, If Italy had 50 cases or less I'd probably take it
 
Nov 17, 2019
12,127
7,303
136
How many gun deaths are there annually?

Traffic deaths?

Heart Disease?

Cancer?

Stroke?

Drowning?

People need to get a grip.

The Marketeers need to grow up.
 
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