meh, you already declared in May the pandemic was over. Since then, only 200k Americans have died of COVID-19.
meh, you already declared in May the pandemic was over. Since then, only 200k Americans have died of COVID-19.This IMO is the game changer, and I'm ready to declare this covid pandemic over once we get large enough supply of this drug which should be sometime next year. This drug combined with the vaccine should be enough to return our overworked ER to normal. This should allow US and other first world countries to adopt "live with covid" policies.
Let's see if the governments and politicians will readily give up their new found powers which they obtained under the pretense of not to overwhelm the ER and have available hospital beds.
You could very well be correct that Omicron may blow through much of the world before an Omicron variant vaccine booster is widely available. But that doesn't mean that it is a bad idea. Multivalent vaccines in initial studies seem to help our bodies form a much more generic immune response. Thus, while it may be too late for Omicron, it might help prevent the next Omicron-like strain.Omicron is so much more transmissible and spreading rapidly that I really doubt a strain specific or multivalent vaccine can be deployed in time to do much about it. Boosting everybody you can get your hands on with the existing vaccine stock immediately seems like the best bet.
You could very well be correct that Omicron may blow through much of the world before an Omicron variant vaccine booster is widely available. But that doesn't mean that it is a bad idea. Multivalent vaccines in initial studies seem to help our bodies form a much more generic immune response. Thus, while it may be too late for Omicron, it might help prevent the next Omicron-like strain.
Really fast spreading diseases tend to leave large swaths of people missed. It is like a fire going through a field too-quickly, many plants end up being spared as it is just a large flash and then the fire is gone. Whereas a long slow burn in a field will torch everything. So, there will be large pockets of people that did not get Omicron in the first wave.I didn't mean for my comment to preclude this. Just that given the doubling time a strain specific or multivalent, optimistically, 60 days out from deployment is going to be of limited utility to the US. We also still have a ton of Delta circulating which we know existing vaccines can handle too. I think longer term a multivalent formulation is likely.
Really fast spreading diseases tend to leave large swaths of people missed. It is like a fire going through a field too-quickly, many plants end up being spared as it is just a large flash and then the fire is gone. Whereas a long slow burn in a field will torch everything. So, there will be large pockets of people that did not get Omicron in the first wave.
meh, you already declared in May the pandemic was over. Since then, only 200k Americans have died of COVID-19.
That sounds about right, and that's the exponential nature of extremely infectious diseases. (shamelessly stolen) Consider one variant, let’s call it A, in which each person infects two others on average, and which causes serious illness in 1% of cases. After ten iterations of transmission, you’ll have about 1,000 cases, and 10 instances of serious illness. Now consider variant B, which is twice as infectious, so each person infects four others on average, but which causes serious illness only one-tenth as often, i.e., in only 0.1% of cases. Unchecked, over the same ten iterations of transmission, with variant B you’ll have more than a million cases, and about 1,000 individuals with serious illness.Am I misunderstanding something about this, or is the covid situation really this bad in Norway?
The Norwegian health authorities have forecast that with omicron growing as it is, within 3 weeks they'll be seeing between 90,000 and 300,000 new infections a day.
Updated risk assessment about omicron variant
The omicron variant is becoming established in Norway and will soon dominate. This will significantly increase transmission, according to an updated risk assessment of the omicron variant from the NIPH.www.fhi.no
"In a preliminary scenario, we estimate that in three weeks there could be up to 90,000 and 300,000 cases per day and 50 to 200 admissions per day if the measures do not slow the epidemic significantly."
Currently, according to worldometers, they are recording about 6,000 a day, and that's the highest its been the whole pandemic.
I'm wondering if perhaps those figures are only those tested and officially registered, and are only a small proportion the true total number of current daily new infections - whereas the forecast is about all cases, and that therefore it's not a comparable quantity?
Going to 90,000, yet alone 300,000, cases a day, would mean completely rescaling the graph. 300,000 would mean equaling the total infections recorded so far for the country since the pandemic started - per day! And at that rate the entire population of the country would have been infected within a few weeks. No wonder Norway are going for a lockdown.
Or am I misunderstanding what these numbers mean?
I can't find equivalent forecasts for the UK, but it's reported that modelling suggests 200,000 people are currently being infected every day.
That sounds about right, and that's the exponential nature of extremely infectious diseases. (shamelessly stolen) Consider one variant, let’s call it A, in which each person infects two others on average, and which causes serious illness in 1% of cases. After ten iterations of transmission, you’ll have about 1,000 cases, and 10 instances of serious illness. Now consider variant B, which is twice as infectious, so each person infects four others on average, but which causes serious illness only one-tenth as often, i.e., in only 0.1% of cases. Unchecked, over the same ten iterations of transmission, with variant B you’ll have more than a million cases, and about 1,000 individuals with serious illness.
Last I heard it has approximately double the r0 value, so yeah it is that bad. This is what fatigue looks like. I'm really, really nervous for the first two weeks of JAN.If Omicron really is that much worse, in terms of speed of spread, I have to say I don't understand why there isn't a bit more urgency being shown by the UK government. I guess they are putting a lot of effort into trying to get everyone booster jabbed, to be fair, but if it's set to infect entire populations of countries within weeks, I'd have assumed they'd be doing a bit more than just that. It seems, for example, that mask-mandates on public transport are simply not being enforced at all.
Basically, the duration of infection, so if the average person is infected for 2 weeks, they'll infect X people, X being the r0 value. There may be more nuance to that for things like lifetime infections or whatever.What I don't understand about the R number is, what time-scale is it supposed to apply over?
Simple version: https://globalhealth.harvard.edu/understanding-predictions-what-is-r-naught/What I don't understand about the R number is, what time-scale is it supposed to apply over?
What Does This All Mean?
This highlights the inherent complexity and variability of outbreaks. R0 values can be helpful in gauging outbreak severity, but a high R0 value does not guarantee a world-wide spread, or a pandemic. It is a calculation of an average value that is based on estimates of averages. When early R0 values are produced, they should be circulated with care and guidance on how to interpret them. We have seen public alarm around R0 estimates with this current outbreak, which is exactly what we should aim to avoid.
meh, you already declared in May the pandemic was over. Since then, only 200k Americans have died of COVID-19.
This article is pretty much my sentiment at this point.
EDITORIAL: It's time for Canadians to just say no
Governments across Canada have announced the return of various COVID-19 restrictions, this time to fight what appears to be the more transmissible Omicron variant.torontosun.com
Until more people rise up though, this is just going to keep going.
We've done a pretty good job making this an informative thread about developments in medical science wrt to Covid and current recommendation by infectious disease professionals. I'd like to keep it this way.
If the average infected person will infect 2 more people per day and is infectious for an average 3 days, then R0 = [(2 people / day) * (3 days)] / [1 starting infected person] = 6.Basically, the duration of infection, so if the average person is infected for 2 weeks, they'll infect X people, X being the r0 value.
Well, we gotta use something to estimate how infectious something is. Until someone comes up with something better than an R0 value, we're gonna use that.If the average infected person will infect 2 more people per day and is infectious for an average 3 days, then R0 = [(2 people / day) * (3 days)] / [1 starting infected person] = 6.
The difficulty with R0 values is the words "average" and the "0" in R0. There is no average person. If the first person infected in your community is an extravert it will be a lot different than if that first person is a hermit. Also, the "0" means that we assume this is the first person ever infected and no one has any form of immunity. With Omicron, this assumption is not true. Many others are at least partly immune. Therefore, the R0 value is technically not applicable.