NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[s0me0nesmind1]

I’m no expert but I cannot imagine how a quarantine would be effective in the modern world. We all travel and interact with far too many people on a daily basis.
If we went into the grim possibilities I could imagine a virus that let’s say takes 2 weeks to recover from maybe you are contagious for 3-4 weeks total. Let’s also say the virus is very deadly Black Plague type deadly.
I could see a huge quarantine working as in everyone stay in your home for 4 weeks food and supplies will be dropped off at you home or Street.
Use this app to notify if someone died and needs to be picked up.
Not a full solution but I’m sure that would greatly slow the spread.

Yeah that's pretty much my thoughts -

Though sadly I have to travel in early February for work that (at this point) I won't be able to cancel.


But if I wasn't already scheduled and there was a severe outbreak I would likely try to just pickup a shitload of groceries that don't go bad (e.g. rice + beans) and try to wait it out. The problem is how do you gauge if you have "waited it out" long enough? If it's constantly spreading (new batch gets it the next day, next batch gets it the next day, etc.) then it sounds like stuff that can take months overall?

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Yeah that's pretty much my thoughts -

Though sadly I have to travel in early February for work that (at this point) I won't be able to cancel.


But if I wasn't already scheduled and there was a severe outbreak I would likely try to just pickup a shitload of groceries that don't go bad (e.g. rice + beans) and try to wait it out. The problem is how do you gauge if you have "waited it out" long enough? If it's constantly spreading (new batch gets it the next day, next batch gets it the next day, etc.) then it sounds like stuff that can take months overall?

Work travel is a tough one. I wouldn’t be afraid to ask (ASAP) if the trip can be delayed just to ensure this virus can be dealt with.
Likely one of those things that is on everyone’s mind but nobody has spoken up.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Work travel is a tough one. I wouldn’t be afraid to ask (ASAP) if the trip can be delayed just to ensure this virus can be dealt with.
Likely one of those things that is on everyone’s mind but nobody has spoken up.

It's an annual conference, so there will be lots of free booze. I think based on that it's worth the risk.

Just kidding, it's probably not - but at this point cancelling travel is non-refundable regardless of if I cancel now or 1 day before the flight... so we will see if the outbreak explodes between now and then.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

It's an annual conference, so there will be lots of free booze. I think based on that it's worth the risk.

Just kidding, it's probably not - but at this point cancelling travel is non-refundable regardless of if I cancel now or 1 day before the flight... so we will see if the outbreak explodes between now and then.

Wash your hands frequently like a maniac and don’t touch your face until you wash
Carry something with you if you have an itch that must be scratched
Take some rubbing alcohol pads in the small sealed packages and wipe you phone and/or tablet/keyboard down a few times per day.
I made a change about 10 years ago that seems to keep me healthy. Don’t touch door handles in public places. Use you sleeve or put your arm in them to open if you have a hat take it off and use it as a “glove”. Sounds weird but really easy to do.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Wash your hands frequently like a maniac and don’t touch your face until you wash
Carry something with you if you have an itch that must be scratched
Take some rubbing alcohol pads in the small sealed packages and wipe you phone and/or tablet/keyboard down a few times per day.

Awww, I love you too.

/hugs

Thank you for the suggestions though. My wife will be sure to remind me of most of these anyhow since we will be traveling with our newborn.

 

[local]

Where did you hear it was infectious during the incubation period? Hopefully it is just someone's runaway assumption. That was still the question last I checked.

Grain of salt but...

China says coronavirus can spread before symptoms show -- calling into question US containment strategy | CNN

China's health minister Ma Xiaowei made a startling statement Sunday about the Wuhan coronavirus: He said people can spread it before they become symptomatic.

www.cnn.com

 

[ponyo]

Where did you hear it was infectious during the incubation period? Hopefully it is just someone's runaway assumption. That was still the question last I checked.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/third-us-coronavirus-case-confirmed-orange-county

On Sunday, Ma Xiaowei, China's National Health Commission, revealed that the incubation period for the virus is around 10 days - though the shortest case was 1 day, and longest 14 - and, more importantly, that those who have contracted the virus might be contagious before symptoms emerge. That wasn't the case for the SARS outbreak in 2003, and it will make the virus much more difficult to contain. Ma added that there are signs the virus is adapting to spread even more quickly from human to human, per the SCMP.

Ma Xiaowei, the minister in charge of China’s National Health Commission (NHC), told a press conference that battling the outbreak was complicated, particularly as it had been discovered that the new virus could be transmitted even during incubation period, which did not happen with Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome).
"From observations, the virus is capable of transmission even during incubation period,” Ma said, adding that the incubation period lasted from one to 14 days.
"Some patients have normal temperatures and there are many milder cases. There are hidden carriers," he said.
Ma said also that the virus had adapted to humans and appeared to have become more transmissible.
"There are signs showing the virus is becoming more transmissible. These walking ‘contagious agents’ [hidden carriers] make controlling the outbreak a lot more difficult."
The authorities had also not ruled out the possibility of the virus mutating in the future, he said, which meant it could spread to different age groups.
To date, most of the people infected are in the 40-60 age range, health officials said earlier.

SARS had an incubation period of 2-7 days, and was not infectious during that time. And it still killed more than 800 people after infecting more than 8,000 around the world.

 

[DigDog]

on one side it's scary that carriers are infectuous even when asymptomatic, but on the other we are already working on a vaccine, and the mortality rate is at about 3% which although significant, is not high enough to imagine this weill be a end-of-the-world scenario.

 

[someone16]

on one side it's scary that carriers are infectuous even when asymptomatic, but on the other we are already working on a vaccine, and the mortality rate is at about 3% which although significant, is not high enough to imagine this weill be a end-of-the-world scenario.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but from the cases in US, it doesn't seem like it can make you seriously sick from what I last looked at.

And people should be practicing good hygiene anyways even before this whole virus thing. I'm always amazed at the amount of people that don't even wash their hands after going to the washroom.

 

[WelshBloke]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but from the cases in US, it doesn't seem like it can make you seriously sick from what I last looked at.

And people should be practicing good hygiene anyways even before this whole virus thing. I'm always amazed at the amount of people that don't even wash their hands after going to the washroom.

I mean it can make you dead, which is pretty sick.
Its unlikely to make you ill as you are unlikely to catch it and if you do its likely that itll be a bad to mild cold. And unless you live where it's hot you are unlikely to encounter it.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but from the cases in US, it doesn't seem like it can make you seriously sick from what I last looked at.

And people should be practicing good hygiene anyways even before this whole virus thing. I'm always amazed at the amount of people that don't even wash their hands after going to the washroom.

Here’s a scenario. Last week a young girl died from the flu in a town next to my city. Normal healthy young girl.
People do die from the regular flu viruses but it is certainly possible she died from this flu.
I think the virus needs to be identified before anyone can say who has or has not died from it.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

5 US coronavirus cases now confirmed; infection can spread before symptoms show

A fifth U.S. case of the new coronavirus that has killed more than 50 people in China has been confirmed in Southern California.

www.usatoday.com

 

[WelshBloke]

Here’s a scenario. Last week a young girl died from the flu in a town next to my city. Normal healthy young girl.
People do die from the regular flu viruses but it is certainly possible she died from this flu.
I think the virus needs to be identified before anyone can say who has or has not died from it.

This virus has been identified. It's a coronavirus, it's not an influenza virus.

 

[ponyo]

This statistic should give you chills. SARS reportedly had mortality rate of 15%. But that's including China's fake statistic. We all know China lies when it involves government reporting of something they don't want the world to know to save face. SARS mortality rate outside of China was around 30%. So if we go by all other world government figures and exclude the bogus China mortality rate, SARS had 30% mortality rate.

30% mortality rate for SARS makes sense because MERS outbreak in 2015 had around 35% mortality rate. MERS virus is very similar to SARS but was started in the Middle East in Saudi Arabia and spread to South Korea. While it spread little bit to other countries, MERS was mainly contained to Saudi Arabia and South Korea. South Korea got MERS from businessmen who had traveled to Saudi Arabia and returned ill with the virus and spread it to others in Korea. It caused great panic in South Korea and the country suffered like half a point drop in GDP because of MERS. South Korea was able to quarantine and contain MERS but the final mortality rate of MERS was shockingly high 35%. Any virus that kills 1 in 3 infected even with treatment is crazy scary.

So forget the bogus 3% mortality rate that's being reported for coronavirus. I bet that shit is also in the 30% mortality rate range. But the scary thing is this shit will transfer and infect others while the supercarrier is showing zero symptoms.

I just came back from my local Home Depot and bought box of 3M N95 face masks. I wanted to have some cheap insurance. I have no idea how bad this will get. The mask section was almost cleaned out and nearly empty of mask by the time I got there. I think if you wait another week, you won't be able to find any masks in stores.

 

[ponyo]

on one side it's scary that carriers are infectuous even when asymptomatic, but on the other we are already working on a vaccine, and the mortality rate is at about 3% which although significant, is not high enough to imagine this weill be a end-of-the-world scenario.

That's if you believe the reported 3% mortality rate. There's no way in hell it's only 3%. Coronavirus is SARS and MERS on steroid. If you multiply 3% by 10 to get 30% or above, that's going to be closer to the real rate. China is not panicking over 3%.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

This virus has been identified. It's a coronavirus, it's not an influenza virus.

I mean someone who died from a flu 2 weeks ago, would they have been tested?

 

[WelshBloke]

I mean someone who died from a flu 2 weeks ago, would they have been tested?

Its usual over here to do an autopsy if someone dies unexpectedly, also I'd assume that they would have done a bunch of tests when she was Ill. We routinely swab for seasonal flu in symptomatic patients.

 

[WelshBloke]

If you multiply 3% by 10 to get 30% or above, that's going to be closer to the real rate.

We dont calculate mortality rates for diseases by multiplying rates from other diseases.

 

[lxskllr]

We dont calculate mortality rates for diseases by multiplying rates from other diseases.

I think ponyo's overall point is valid though. We don't know what the mortality rate is. It's *at least* 3%, but there isn't an upward limit, and China can't be trusted for truthful data. If China said the sky was blue, I'd look out the window to see for myself.

 

[WelshBloke]

I think ponyo's overall point is valid though. We don't know what the mortality rate is. It's *at least* 3%, but there isn't an upward limit, and China can't be trusted for truthful data. If China said the sky was blue, I'd look out the window to see for myself.

Yeah but then you just say that you dont know what the mortality rate is. You dont then make one up because you are panicking.

 

[sdifox]

oh fuck it is contagious while incubating, much worse than SARS.

 

[ponyo]

Yeah but then you just say that you dont know what the mortality rate is. You dont then make one up because you are panicking.

China is making up numbers. So I can make one up too. Coronavirus is in the same family as SARS and MERS. Both of those had 30%+ mortality rate.

 

[DigDog]

No, it's a virus that, at worst, causes respiratory failure. A ventilator is a cheap and efficient machine. It doesnt cause your capillaries to explode, against whcih there are zero machines that can help. In other words, it's not ebola.
Let me be clear, 3% mortality is not low. 0.1% is low mortality, 3% is significant. But, it should be fairly easy to care for those affected. The concern is that it could plausibly infect enough people to strain our infrastructure.

My guess, is that china is dealing so strongly with it not because it's highly infectuous (and it is), but because it's a political maneuver, they want their dictatorship to be seen as efficient and useful. Which is not.

 

[WelshBloke]

China is making up numbers. So I can make one up too. Coronavirus is in the same family as SARS and MERS. Both of those had 30%+ mortality rate.

Coronavirus also causes a lot of cases of the cold. I'm assuming that you arent claiming that the common cold had a mortality rate of 30%?

 

[WelshBloke]

No, it's a virus that, at worst, causes respiratory failure. A ventilator is a cheap and efficient machine.

If you're getting intubated and put on a ventilator then your own person shit has hit the fan!