NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

Page 27 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

Ichinisan

Lifer
Oct 9, 2002
28,298
1,234
136
Uh, the Corona Virus is clearly a incredibly lousy bioweapon by any practical standard unless you're talking about some general death cult who does not care who they kill. (In which case it is still not remotely as lethal as desirable.)

Basically being overtly easy to spread and having a fairly long symptom free incubation period are terrible traits for a nation state because it makes it vastly too likely the virus is going to end up spreading to your country as well and hit everyone close to equally. The evidence is also it is not as deadly as desirable in terms of the percentage of people who die from it versus the number who get infected. (The long incubation period also means if you're trying to use it on troops in a conventional conflict by major powers, the war may be effectively over before that many troops become significantly ill among other problems.)

A plausibly useful bioweapon does not spread easily beyond a limited area and potentially kills a high number of people infected by it like anthrax.

In other words conspiracy theories about the coronavirus being part of a bioweapons research effort which accidentally escaped simply do not make sense because any theoretical state government research program would almost immediately conclude something like this coronavirus is simply worthless for their particular needs.
Well they might plan to develop a vaccine for themselves before intentionally releasing it.

Or intentionally release it as a last resort with certain individuals remaining in prepared isolation until the disease goes extinct.

Still not an ideal virus for that because the symptom-free incubation period isn't nearly long enough to be that effective.
 

Aegeon

Golden Member
Nov 2, 2004
1,809
125
106
Well they might plan to develop a vaccine for themselves before intentionally releasing it.

Or intentionally release it as a last resort with certain individuals remaining in prepared isolation until the disease goes extinct.

Still not an ideal virus for that because the symptom-free incubation period isn't nearly long enough to be that effective.
Uh, trying to vaccinate over a billion people in secret (or even creating the stockpiles to do this) is not exactly vaguely practical...

More to the point the actual death total vs the number of people infected is clearly not truly that high percentage wise, making the rest of your idea utterly pointless. Even versions of the flu in the past have had a higher lethality rate than the virus. There is zero value in messing around what you are apparently talking about for a country like China compared to just using nukes. (Furthermore on top of the virus not being even vaguely lethal enough, even if you were talking about a virus that was that lethal, realistically killing almost everyone in your country means your country no longer effectively exists regardless, and other countries are likely to nuke you in retaliation anyways when they figure out you used a bioweapon against them which killed most of their population.)
 
Last edited:

Ichinisan

Lifer
Oct 9, 2002
28,298
1,234
136
Uh, trying to vaccinate over a billion people in secret (or even creating the stockpiles to do this) is not exactly vaguely practical...
Nobody said it was practical. Nobody said they would try to save that many with a last-resort bio weapon.


More to the point the actual death total vs the number of people infected is clearly not truly that high percentage wise,

Can't rule out the possibility of an accidental release before it was fully developed.

making the rest of your idea utterly pointless.

LOL! My idea?! Sorry. No.

I'm just replying and participating in a discussion.

Even versions of the flu in the past have had a higher lethality rate than the virus.

We don't really have useful information from China at this point. Everything is based on bad assumptions. Still, we can't yet rule out the possibility that a bio-weapon was accidentally released before development / engineering was anywhere close to being complete

There is zero value in messing around what you are apparently talking about for a country like China compared to just using nukes. (Furthermore on top of the virus not being even vaguely lethal enough, even if you were talking about a virus that was that lethal, realistically killing almost everyone in your country means your country no longer effectively exists

Or utilize the absurdly high population as a weapon - for elites to take out the rest of the world in a desperate last-resort move. Anyway, that would never work with the virus in its current form (obviously).

regardless, and other countries are likely to nuke you in retaliation anyways when they figure out you used a bioweapon against them which killed most of their population.)

If it was properly engineered you could infect the whole planet before anyone became symptomatic.

Just throwing out possibilities. Feel free to discuss / dispute / disprove them. I don't want to completely dismiss the possibility of a prematurely released in-development bio weapon. Certainly seems possible (but improbable).
 

Aegeon

Golden Member
Nov 2, 2004
1,809
125
106
If it was properly engineered you could infect the whole planet before anyone became symptomatic.
Not in actual real life in a sufficiently effective way you would not.

On top of inefficiencies with respect to a virus spreading in general (you are not going to infect everyone in a timely enough manner and realistically would get no-where close) there is the reality that the US for example has its SSBNs engage in patrols which regularly last 70 days with no heading to port or resupply. The only real limitation on patrol length is the food supply which is for longer than 70 days and could potentially be extended for even longer in a real emergency with rationing. (Even if the virus was starting to spread in the country when they left port, it is unlikely to have spread enough to have actually infected any of the crew yet.) Outside China, the UK, France, and Russia in particular have similar SSBNs right now.

Even with respect to land based ICBMs and the like, a hypothetical really long incubation period means a large portion of the crews have plenty of time they are completely capable of launching the nuclear weapons before they are killed or disabled by the virus, and in the meantime plenty of other people who caught the virus first would have made it very obvious how severe the situation is. In other words, a long enough incubation period would do zero to prevent a bunch of countries presumably deciding to nuke you if the virus is actually lethal enough, so your whole concept makes almost zero sense. (Maybe you could argue theoretically for a very weak but ruthless country as a doomsday weapon, but the problems would include somehow being in a position to sufficiently effectively spread it while making sure everyone knows you have this well in advance, and limiting the timing to a specific hypothetical desired moment.)

The underlying reality is virtually everything about the coronavirus makes it worthless as a bioweapon for a state actor, so the idea it escaped from a Chinese military biolab simply does not make sense.
 
Last edited:
Reactions: pmv
Nov 17, 2019
11,285
6,708
136
China knows they have too many people for their resources. Losing a few (thousand, million, whatever) could help more than harm.
 

CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,195
856
126
if you learn that the virus started in 2019, IN 2020, then you would name it retroactively.
No. They announced it Jan. 1st. They knew in December, 2019 and knew it went back to at least their Dec 7 patient.

how did they know this virus could jump to humans if it originated from an animal prior to this outbreak ?
...because they found it in humans in 2019. Again, this is why it's called 2019-nCoV. It wasn't found in 2020 and named retroactively. It was found in 2019.

You're barking up the wrong tree here.
 
Last edited:

local

Golden Member
Jun 28, 2011
1,851
512
136
Uh, the Corona Virus is clearly a incredibly lousy bioweapon by any practical standard unless you're talking about some general death cult who does not care who they kill. (In which case it is still not remotely as lethal as desirable.)

Basically being overtly easy to spread and having a fairly long symptom free incubation period are terrible traits for a nation state because it makes it vastly too likely the virus is going to end up spreading to your country as well and hit everyone close to equally. The evidence is also it is not as deadly as desirable in terms of the percentage of people who die from it versus the number who get infected. (The long incubation period also means if you're trying to use it on troops in a conventional conflict by major powers, the war may be effectively over before that many troops become significantly ill among other problems.)

A plausibly useful bioweapon does not spread easily beyond a limited area and potentially kills a high number of people infected by it like anthrax.

In other words conspiracy theories about the coronavirus being part of a bioweapons research effort which accidentally escaped simply do not make sense because any theoretical state government research program would almost immediately conclude something like this coronavirus is simply worthless for their particular needs.

That's fine and what one would expect.

Note, I do not believe the conspiracy stories where this is an engineered virus that escaped or otherwise released. That being said I stated earlier that something like this fits a use case for a bio weapon, not necessarily the best or even a particularly good one depending on your goals. But if your goals are crippling your enemy with some deniability, terrorism or even the culling of undesirable populations then something like this could be used effectively.

Widespread release without knowledge of its existence would absolutely devastate a region. Sure in this particular case it would also spread around the world but play into the accidental release of an incomplete weapon maybe without the ability to control it such as a fast detection system that could pick it up immediately or particular weakness to a simple but non-intuitive treatment and you could cripple your enemy before the fighting even started.

Another use could be what if it was not meant to be used in conventional war but for terrorism. In that case blow back would be seen as a much less of a problem and possibly a feature depending on the particular goals. Yes no rational state actor would make such a stupid thing for deployment but they research everything even if there is never any intent to use it.

Long story short there are any number of reasons to create bio weapons and mass killing is not the only one. Bio weapons are definitely in the no-limits winner take all or no one wins scenarios. Once you get to that point things stop making sense.

Again, I do not believe that this is an engineered bio weapon.
 

killster1

Banned
Mar 15, 2007
6,208
475
126
yes it sux my flight in march goes through china just 2 hour layover in bejing, going to postpone till october but might not even be safe then ;O really want to visit my houses in asia tho.
 

CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,195
856
126
Over the last week I've seeing people in the Atlanta area wearing surgical masks (not N95) while shopping, pumping gas, eating out, etc. Just saw one dude shopping for denim with his surgical mask pulled down past his nose so it was only covering his mouth.

Hmm.
 

Aegeon

Golden Member
Nov 2, 2004
1,809
125
106
China knows they have too many people for their resources. Losing a few (thousand, million, whatever) could help more than harm.
Uh, this is clearly nonsense in the ways that matter for China's political leadership. Basically this situation is very economically harmful for China with problems both with factories etc. being shut down, plus the degree that China is being shut off from international travel. (On top of all the other problems, since a certain amount of cargo is ordinarily transported via passenger planes, the situation is making it more costly and logistically complicated to transport goods out of China with the extent such flights have been cancelled. The effects on tourism to China also are going to realistically last significantly longer than merely the period the virus is really a threat incidentally in terms of the impact to China's economy.)

In reality a situation like this is the sort of thing that can undermine China's current regime which heavily bases its current legitimacy on the extent they have brought economic success to China in recent decades. As basically noted, the virus spreads far too easily to make it usable for targeting a specific group or the like which undermines other pretty dubious motives in the first place someone would mess with this intentionally as a bioweapon.
 

eRacer

Member
Jun 14, 2004
167
31
91
In reality a situation like this is the sort of thing that can undermine China's current regime which heavily bases its current legitimacy on the extent they have brought economic success to China in recent decades.
Yep. If the current public relations blitz of coronavirus censorship and propaganda isn't successful, we'll see the Chinese military take a much more visible role in affected cities in the future.

Yet another city to go under lockdown:

Far From Coronavirus Epicentre, China Puts Another City Under Lockdown
Coronavirus: Struggling to contain the virus, authorities virtually shut down the eastern city of Wenzhou on Sunday -- some 800 kilometres (500 miles) from Wuhan.

article said:
Only one resident per household is allowed to go out every two days to buy necessities, and 46 highway toll stations have been closed, authorities announced.

The city had previously closed public places such as cinemas and museums, and suspended public transport.
 

mohit9206

Golden Member
Jul 2, 2013
1,381
511
136
The fact that no one is really taking this pandemic seriously ,like countries not banning flights to and from China, WHO praising China for their efforts of lying and suppressing info and arresting people and media not taking this seriously either is really concerning.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,898
12,365
126
www.anyf.ca
Yeah I'm glad at least here in Canada they banned flights to/from China from what I gather, but not sure if they did in the US, so there is still a chance of someone from the US coming here.

In general, when these viruses happen they really need to put a full stop on all flights ASAP. Travel is a luxury, not a need. I think the best way to handle these cases is full stop to flights, but then have special flights to bring back people that are stranded, but they should be fully tested and asked to get tested a few days later again and to stay home for that time period. Like the airport should have a doctor issue them an official doctor letter so they don't have to go to work. Go straight home and stay there, then get tested again in a few days. (in case it takes a while for virus to show up etc). This procedure could change once they find out more details on the virus. They're all different so they would need to be treated as needed. Like for Ebola I think it actually took quite a while for it to show up.
 

eRacer

Member
Jun 14, 2004
167
31
91
Yeah I'm glad at least here in Canada they banned flights to/from China from what I gather, but not sure if they did in the US, so there is still a chance of someone from the US coming here.
Specific airlines may have stopped direct flights, but according to this Canadian government page there is no ban, just an advisory against "non-essential travel" to China. There will also be many indirect routes available from China to Canada. Also, this:

Coronavirus: 325 Canadians have requested to leave epicentre of the outbreak

The number of Canadians who have asked for assistance in leaving Hubei — the province in China where a new virus has infected thousands — has now risen to 325, according to Global Affairs Canada.

As of Sunday, Global Affairs says 543 Canadians in China have now registered with consular officials, a figure that includes those looking to leave the country.

As of Sunday, Canada is still in the process of chartering a flight to Wuhan to pick up the Canadians there.

“In the event that there are more passengers than available seats, we will continue to explore all avenues to assist Canadians in departing from Wuhan, China,” the message stated.
 

dr150

Diamond Member
Sep 18, 2003
6,571
24
81
I'm paranoid now.

When I enter a punlic bathroom I wash my hands before relieving myself.

I don't want Coronavirus on my dick!
 

killster1

Banned
Mar 15, 2007
6,208
475
126
I'm paranoid now.

When I enter a punlic bathroom I wash my hands before relieving myself.

I don't want Coronavirus on my dick!
well your hands are dirty most likely, i often wash my hands before pissing too. nothing to do with the coronoavirus

someone told me all the flights to china are canceled! good news since it will be easier to change / get a refund for my flights in march or rebook through korea air super happy 2400$ for 4 tickets on korea air round trip compared to 1600 going through china but what ever.
 

sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,493
3,159
136
So, if this originated in China I wonder what germ warfare shit they were experimenting on that went so awry?

And if this turns really really bad, like some real life of the movie Contagion, thank god we have Donald Trump to lead us.
And Mike Pence.
 

allisolm

Elite Member
Administrator
Jan 2, 2001
25,009
4,370
136
And the US is up to 11 cases.

Coronavirus so far: 17,386 reported cases, 362 reported deaths (this is more deaths than occurred in China with the SARS outbreak but the mortality rate for the coronavirus is much lower.)
 

Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
3,945
5,822
136
So far, there are very few cases of human-to-human transmission outside of China. Hopefully it stays that way. We still don't know how transmissible this is while being in asymptomatic incubation.

EDIT: On the other hand, Thailand has over 300 suspected cases spread across the country. Taiwan and Vietnam also appear to have a bunch of suspected cases scattered throughout. I would't be surprised if southeast Asia gets hit hard too. And then there's India...
 
Last edited:

local

Golden Member
Jun 28, 2011
1,851
512
136
I think there could be far more just in the US at this point. Honestly, if you had a cough and maybe a mild sore throat tomorrow are you going to the Dr to get checked for this? And even if you did would they even run the test without a link to China? And given how easy this supposedly spreads how many people are you infecting during this time?

I honestly don't see much chance that this will get contained at this point. Not without a near instant flu type test or some other way to quickly and easily differentiate between this and a dozen other things people normally get this time of year.
 

eRacer

Member
Jun 14, 2004
167
31
91
And if this turns really really bad, like some real life of the movie Contagion, thank god we have Donald Trump to lead us.
And Mike Pence.
For now I'll take the president that is defined by imposing travel bans, increasing border security, and was confident enough to spark a trade war with China while almost everyone else was falling all over themselves to pacify China and cater to their demands. DJT may not be the hero we deserve, but he is probably the hero we need at this point in history.

If coronavirus becomes widespread in the US, everything goes to hell in a handbasket no matter who is president. The establishment bureaucrats in the government agencies will be running the show for the most part, and they essentially have nothing but a long list of bad options to choose from in order to prevent chaos while simultaneously fighting further spread of the disease.

While it is calm now in the US, everything is in jeopardy, even the 2020 elections. At this point its not hard to imagine a scenario where candidates no longer are able to campaign in public when everyone with the virus is the equivalent of a bioweapon, or it's deemed to dangerous to hold political conventions/rallies/protests for fear of spreading the disease, or it is considered too unsafe by the public for thousands of people to congregate at polling stations to cast their vote. China is living under those conditions right now.
 
Last edited:
sale-70-410-exam    | Exam-200-125-pdf    | we-sale-70-410-exam    | hot-sale-70-410-exam    | Latest-exam-700-603-Dumps    | Dumps-98-363-exams-date    | Certs-200-125-date    | Dumps-300-075-exams-date    | hot-sale-book-C8010-726-book    | Hot-Sale-200-310-Exam    | Exam-Description-200-310-dumps?    | hot-sale-book-200-125-book    | Latest-Updated-300-209-Exam    | Dumps-210-260-exams-date    | Download-200-125-Exam-PDF    | Exam-Description-300-101-dumps    | Certs-300-101-date    | Hot-Sale-300-075-Exam    | Latest-exam-200-125-Dumps    | Exam-Description-200-125-dumps    | Latest-Updated-300-075-Exam    | hot-sale-book-210-260-book    | Dumps-200-901-exams-date    | Certs-200-901-date    | Latest-exam-1Z0-062-Dumps    | Hot-Sale-1Z0-062-Exam    | Certs-CSSLP-date    | 100%-Pass-70-383-Exams    | Latest-JN0-360-real-exam-questions    | 100%-Pass-4A0-100-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-300-135-exams-date    | Passed-200-105-Tech-Exams    | Latest-Updated-200-310-Exam    | Download-300-070-Exam-PDF    | Hot-Sale-JN0-360-Exam    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Exams    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-JN0-360-exams-date    | Exam-Description-1Z0-876-dumps    | Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps    | Dumps-HPE0-Y53-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-HPE0-Y53-Exam    | 100%-Pass-HPE0-Y53-Real-Exam-Questions    | Pass-4A0-100-Exam    | Latest-4A0-100-Questions    | Dumps-98-365-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-98-365-Exam    | 100%-Pass-VCS-254-Exams    | 2017-Latest-VCS-273-Exam    | Dumps-200-355-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-300-320-Exam    | Pass-300-101-Exam    | 100%-Pass-300-115-Exams    |
http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    | http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    |