After severely overestimating the impact COVID would have since Jan 2020 and being proven wrong several times I am going to go ahead and assume that the sky will in fact stay up this time. Yes many many more people will get sick but I do not believe it is going to result in too much of an impact. Seeing a lot of anectodical accounts of people in London and NYC saying there are very large numbers of sick people who basically have a cold, it is not like previous waves where tons of people were gravely ill. Hospitals are reporting a large increase in cases but those cases are not there because of COVID they just happen to have it. I'm more worried about interruptions to the supply chain from mandatory quarantines than I am the actual disease at this point. Hopefully I am not wrong again.
Am I wrong or does this not suggest (strongly) that a full dose of Moderna's a better idea than the current 1/2 dose for a "booster?"As expected, a boost with Modern'a mRNA vaccine shows improved neutralizing activity against Omicron.
Even if you restrict the category to strictly 'patients admitted because of COVID' rather than 'just happen to have it', so far I don't see much evidence that it's milder than previous strains. It seems to be closely tracking the Delta strain.
(Mind you, I'm disappointed that a PhD would misuse an apostrophe the way this fellow does)
Am I wrong or does this not suggest (strongly) that a full dose of Moderna's a better idea than the current 1/2 dose for a "booster?"
Good data, however admitted without the total cases only tells part of the story. I am not saying that there will not be a big strain on the healthcare system again and I am not saying we should all just say it's over and party like it's 2019. I am saying that I do not believe the dire scenarios attempting to be put forward will come to pass this time. But in the end only time will tell as this peak is going to be far higher than any we have seen before. Everyone should do their part, get vaccinated and maybe skip the massive NYE party this year.
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In Phase 1 Moderna looked at a single 250 mg dose. IIRC it had just as good immunity as the two 100 mg, but with much higher side effects. I think the booster size is a similar trade off, more people will get it, if it has fewer side effects.Am I wrong or does this not suggest (strongly) that a full dose of Moderna's a better idea than the current 1/2 dose for a "booster?"
Exponential growth ALWAYS has a practical limit. Things cannot physically double forever. Even though rabbits double frequently, we don't have piles of rabbits covering the earth's surface to the depth of the moon or beyond. Something limits the number of rabbits. It could be lack of food, predators, rabbit diseases, or even just the massive weight of rabbits above them. Something slows the exponential growth.Says cases are doubling every 1.5 days in London.
Coupled with the fact that in most of inner London now the case numbers are between 1.2 and 1.5% of the population - does that mean that in 9 days it will have increased by a factor of 64, i.e. to 77-96% of the population, so by the new year _everyone_ in the city will be infected?
Exponential growth ALWAYS has a practical limit. Things cannot physically double forever. Even though rabbits double frequently, we don't have piles of rabbits covering the earth's surface to the depth of the moon or beyond. Something limits the number of rabbits. It could be lack of food, predators, rabbit diseases, or even just the massive weight of rabbits above them. Something slows the exponential growth.
In reality, while growth may look exponential at the start, it is usually S-shaped. The key is at what point do the two lines diverge?
When it comes to Covid, if you are the first with Omicron then you could theoretically spread it to all your family, all your friends, and all your colleagues. You could initially cause the number of Omicron cases to double every ~1.5 days. But, your family can't do the same. Their family already has Omicron from you. Thus they can't spread it to family like you did. Same with your friends and coworkers, you already infected most of their friends and coworkers so their average rate of doubling is LESS than yours. It may start as doubling every 1.5 days, but it will slow down over time.
Any math that doesn't include the natural limit to growth will be wrong. That includes your math of 77% to 96% of the population in 9 days.
Omicron hit Norway and Denmark first, so we at least have some additional data to go on:And considering how fast Omicron is moving we may not be able to gather enough data to chart that growth curve until it is already over. What I am seeing right now though is lots of people taking the 1.5 day doubling time and applying it without limit that leads to excessive worry.
Exponential growth ALWAYS has a practical limit. Things cannot physically double forever. Even though rabbits double frequently, we don't have piles of rabbits covering the earth's surface to the depth of the moon or beyond. Something limits the number of rabbits. It could be lack of food, predators, rabbit diseases, or even just the massive weight of rabbits above them. Something slows the exponential growth.
In reality, while growth may look exponential at the start, it is usually S-shaped. The key is at what point do the two lines diverge?
When it comes to Covid, if you are the first with Omicron then you could theoretically spread it to all your family, all your friends, and all your colleagues. You could initially cause the number of Omicron cases to double every ~1.5 days. But, your family can't do the same. Their family already has Omicron from you. Thus they can't spread it to family like you did. Same with your friends and coworkers, you already infected most of their friends and coworkers so their average rate of doubling is LESS than yours. It may start as doubling every 1.5 days, but it will slow down over time.
Any math that doesn't include the natural limit to growth will be wrong. That includes your math of 77% to 96% of the population in 9 days.
Delta was slowing down. The bulk of Covid waves tend to be about 3 months long with then a slow lingering tail of cases. Delta peaked in the US back in September and was clearly getting significantly lower in cases by Dec 1 in the US.Amazing. Seems maybe 10 days ago the first omicron cases were discovered in the US and today the dominant strain?
Edit: OK, it was Dec. 1. So in less than 3 weeks it went from one known case to the dominant strain.
Amazing. Seems maybe 10 days ago the first omicron cases were discovered in the US and today the dominant strain?
Edit: OK, it was Dec. 1. So in less than 3 weeks it went from one known case to the dominant strain.
It is a 7-day rolling average. Rolling averages have some good benefits: they are updated frequently and they smooth out artificial noise. For example, some places around the world do not report Covid numbers on the weekends. Thus the numbers look bigger during the week (especially around Thursday or Friday when Monday test data is entered) and look smaller on weekends. A 7-day rolling average means that artificial spike and artificial plunge every week are completely eliminated without any special effort.Edit - OK, I reckon the thing with the data on that site is it follows 5 days or so behind the current date. So it gets updated each day but is always just under a week behind.
| Day | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Actual # | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| 7-day Rolling Average | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 13.33 | 14.29 | 15.71 | 17.14 | 18.57 | 20 | 20 |
It is a 7-day rolling average. Rolling averages have some good benefits: they are updated frequently and they smooth out artificial noise. For example, some places around the world do not report Covid numbers on the weekends. Thus the numbers look bigger during the week (especially around Thursday or Friday when Monday test data is entered) and look smaller on weekends. A 7-day rolling average means that artificial spike and artificial plunge every week are completely eliminated without any special effort.
But, the drawback is that simple rolling averages are always behind. Today's data will be averaged in with data from 6 days ago. It takes almost a full week for today's data to be fully counted. Below is an example with a spike in numbers on day 5 and the rolling average doesn't fully reflect it until day 11:
Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Actual # 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 7-day Rolling Average 10 10 10 10 12 13.33 14.29 15.71 17.14 18.57 20 20
So the vaccine can prevent you from getting sick from the virus or getting too sick, but that's not protecting from illness.I really with that Papa Joe would stop telling people that the vaccination will protect people from illness. It's not really true... you can still get sick from COVID even if you fully vaccinated and got the booster shot. You're much less likely to die from it, but we need to stop pretending that the vaccination is a shield from infection.
You know who says the vaccine is a shield?I really with that Papa Joe would stop telling people that the vaccination will protect people from illness. It's not really true... you can still get sick from COVID even if you fully vaccinated and got the booster shot. You're much less likely to die from it, but we need to stop pretending that the vaccination is a shield from infection.
It is absolutely true: the vaccine can prevent you from getting infected when exposed to the virus. It literally reduces risk at every point in the transmission/illness chain.I really with that Papa Joe would stop telling people that the vaccination will protect people from illness. It's not really true... you can still get sick from COVID even if you fully vaccinated and got the booster shot. You're much less likely to die from it, but we need to stop pretending that the vaccination is a shield from infection.
Gubment needs the tax revenue from business activities and needs dumb people to believe in stupid things to fuel businesses. The way to do that is to get people's guards down. The experts always know that it is no force field. But the media and "actions" by the likes of the CDC leads people to infer that's all good to let their guards down. So, young, healthy, and vaccinated do their thing with not much ill effects, but "spreading" still occurs amongst the population and by the time someone tests positive, at least a few days have passed where the virus has grown and spread elsewhere, and by chance alone, might hit a few more vulnerable people who die or get hospitalized.I really with that Papa Joe would stop telling people that the vaccination will protect people from illness. It's not really true... you can still get sick from COVID even if you fully vaccinated and got the booster shot. You're much less likely to die from it, but we need to stop pretending that the vaccination is a shield from infection.