News NV 1Q24 Results

[Hitman928]

NV follows a fiscal calendar that is different than the normal calendar, but I am presenting as the normal calendar for easier understanding and comparison.

NV had another blowout quarter, fueled by. . . automotive! Just kidding, it's AI.




Strong Q2 outlook given as well.

NVIDIA’s outlook for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 is as follows:

• Revenue is expected to be $28.0 billion, plus or minus 2%.
• GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 74.8% and 75.5%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points. For the full year, gross margins are expected to be in the mid-70% range.
• GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to be approximately $4.0 billion and $2.8 billion, respectively. Full-year operating expenses are expected to grow in the low-40% range.
• GAAP and non-GAAP other income and expense are expected to be an income of approximately $300 million, excluding gains and losses from non-affiliated investments.
• GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates are expected to be 17%, plus or minus 1%, excluding any discrete items.

NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for First Quarter Fiscal 2025

seekingalpha.com

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

This is insane!

 

[Saylick]

Crazy. The stock has crossed the $1,000 price point in after hours trading.

 

[Kepler_L2]

NVIDIA added 1.5 Intels or 0.74 AMDs to its market cap in just 2 minutes

https://twitter.com/x/status/1793381791010828429

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

NVIDIA added 1.5 Intels or 0.74 AMDs to its market cap in just 2 minutes

https://twitter.com/x/status/1793381791010828429

The moment they underperform the expectations, the fall will be ugly. There's too much hype behind it.

 

[Saylick]

The moment they underperform the expectations, the fall will be ugly. There's too much hype behind it.

Yeah, it's priced to perfection. Any hint of a possible slowdown to the AI boom and the stock will deflate. I suspect it won't pop, but it will be like Tesla where it takes many years for the stock price to come back down to Earth.

 

[jpiniero]

Gaming, btw, was up 18% YoY. $2.6B is nothing to scoff at...

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Nvidia is like a wildfire, they generate their own weather that drives the fire...

 

[gdansk]

Wow.
I genuinely fear for the global economy.

 

[tajoh111]

Wow.
I genuinely fear for the global economy.

It's actually the opposite . Nvidia is actually propping up all the tech stocks including AMD's.

Once this bubble bursts, expect the stock market to take a beating. Expect stocks in general to jump tomorrow on Nvidia's beat(not just NVDA). The market was waiting for Nvidia's earnings.

No matter how much people don't like Nvidia, they are very important to the economy right now.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/nvidia-stocks-gains-market-e3fa828a

If Nvidia report showed the AI market has burst, while they will suffer a tremendous stock loss, they would have collected 10's of billions in profit by then. Not a terrible place to be in when your rivals are struggling or just getting by. Intel while they want datacenter revenue directly, wouldn't mind manufacturing Nvidia's chips. AMD's stock is being carried by the idea of explosive growth in the future in AI. AMD's client and gaming revenues are known quantities(and not terribly profitable). Once the AI bubble bursts, AMD stock price will fall by at least 50% going by their current revenue streams. AMD can't afford this at the moment because they need growth and is spread into so many different product stacks.

Gaming GPU's
Data center chips
Embedded products
x86 client CPU's(desktop and mobile).
x86 servers
Possible ARM products.

While Nvidia is overvalued, they are profiting massively every quarter that the bubble keeps going. This quarter for example net profit is 15 billion dollars. This war chest will be key once we hit 2nm and below. With R and D and wafers becoming so expensive, a wide breadth of product is going to be expensive to maintain while keeping roadmaps consistent.

With reports of nearly 500,000 black well's being sold this year and 100 billion in data center revenue or more this year, Nvidia is leaving it's competitor behind.

 

[gdansk]

Nvidia is actually propping up all the tech stocks

No matter how much people don't like Nvidia, they are very important to the economy right now.

Nvidia is overvalued

Read what you said. That's exactly why I fear for the global economy.

The last big bubble pop didn't destroy the US economy for long but caused a decade of austerity elsewhere. And if this 'overvaluation' pops instead of slowly correcting, well, good luck. At least Goldman Sachs didn't have cheerleaders.

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

4 years ago, the stock price was only $88.8.
Now, It's $949.5 or 10.7x more.
I will be surprised If It doesn't crash.
This AI hype won't be forever the same as with Bitcoin, yeah that's the dive in the right.

After checking the most valued companies, in the top 20 there are 16 from USA, the other 4 are from S. Arabia(Aramco), Republic of China(TSMC), Denmark(Novo Nordisk) and People's Republic of China (Tencent).
I am not an expert, but to me especially the tech sector looks overvalued, If some big crisis happens, then the financial crisis in 2007-2008 will be nothing compared to this.

 

[Ajay]

The moment they underperform the expectations, the fall will be ugly. There's too much hype behind it.

You underestimate the length of time that the market can behave irrationally. Ask Warren Buffet.

 

[Saylick]

FWIW, Nvidia doesn't even care if AI ends up being a bubble because they would have made billions in profit by the time it deflates/pops and they would have amassed a huge war chest as a result. That's American capitalism for you, where making money now is the most important thing, irrespective if it's based on hype or not.

 

[Saylick]

Just caught this on Xitter. The American stock market Ferris wheel goes round and round...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1793668756528386475

 

[gdansk]

FWIW, Nvidia doesn't even care if AI ends up being a bubble because they would have made billions in profit by the time it deflates/pops and they would have amassed a huge war chest as a result. That's American capitalism for you, where making money now is the most important thing, irrespective if it's based on hype or not.

I can't blame Nvidia for that. They're making chips and selling them to companies who want to buy them. But what may cause problems are the companies spending $100 billion a year on Nvidia chips to power services mostly too expensive to ever make money on.

 

[Saylick]

I can't blame Nvidia for that. They're making chips and selling them to companies who want to buy them.

Yeah, Jensen's actions are mostly shaped from his early NVidia days where they were close to being bankrupt a handful of times, so it doesn't surprise me that he's taking the approach of eating like a pig whenever there's glut of food laid out in front of him. Doesn't matter what is creating that food source, whether it be ray tracing hype, blockchain hype, metaverse hype, AI hype, or self-driving car hype.

But what may cause problems are the companies spending $100 billion a year on Nvidia chips to power services mostly too expensive to ever make money on.

This a reflection on American tech sector capitalism imo. All the big players already make money hand over fist so when there's even a hint of a possible *new* gold mine, they'll gladly blow through billions of dollars while stumbling over each other to get there first. It doesn't even matter if that gold mine has enough gold to make the investment worthwhile, because shareholders will absolutely skewer the upper management for not taking action. Same thing with Nvidia, really. Shareholders would skewer JHH for not trying to be monopolistic when such an opportunity presents itself.

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

It's a gigantic bubble.
Nvidia is good, they will make a hell of a lot of money.
The ones who bought all these AI accelerators, I am pretty skeptical about their profits.

But It's kind of hilarious, we are saying how these companies are greedy and all, yet the management is forced to do so, If they don't want to be replaced, because they didn't meet the shareholder's expectations.

P.S. I personally am not particularly happy with capitalism or more specifically consumer economy, where you need to buy new and new things(toys), which you don't necessarily need just so the economy doesn't crash. This just can't work forever, Earth has a limited amount of resources and we all know what will happen, when the resources start to deplete -> war.
Basically, the biggest enemy of humanity is humanity themselves.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

FWIW, Nvidia doesn't even care if AI ends up being a bubble because they would have made billions in profit by the time it deflates/pops and they would have amassed a huge war chest as a result. That's American capitalism for you, where making money now is the most important thing, irrespective if it's based on hype or not.

- Even better if its based on hype, considering the inputs for hype are essentially free.

 

[maddie]

It's a gigantic bubble.
Nvidia is good, they will make a hell of a lot of money.
The ones who bought all these AI accelerators, I am pretty skeptical about their profits.

But It's kind of hilarious, we are saying how these companies are greedy and all, yet the management is forced to do so, If they don't want to be replaced, because they didn't meet the shareholder's expectations.

P.S. I personally am not particularly happy with capitalism or more specifically consumer economy, where you need to buy new and new things(toys), which you don't necessarily need just so the economy doesn't crash. This just can't work forever, Earth has a limited amount of resources and we all know what will happen, when the resources start to deplete -> war.
Basically, the biggest enemy of humanity is humanity themselves.

Don't go all Club of Rome. You don't have a handle as to the resources of the planet. The main reason we only have a few decades of any resource available is why would anyone waste resources exploring for more when the financial return will be literally decades. Only a zero or close to zero interest rate will allow such. Off topic but felt compelled to reply, forgive me for this.

 

[Mahboi]

Read what you said. That's exactly why I fear for the global economy.

The last big bubble pop didn't destroy the US economy for long but caused a decade of austerity elsewhere. And if this 'overvaluation' pops instead of slowly correcting, well, good luck. At least Goldman Sachs didn't have cheerleaders.

The funny thing is: the fact that the economy is literally running off a bubble may be what prevents the bubble from bursting.
If you quit believing in Jensen, where do you put your money?
That's right, so keep believing even when you're done believing.

Economy by Fear.

 

[Saylick]

I was going down a Youtube rabbit hole and this video popped up in my feed. I think it hits a few points that a few of us in this thread already feel, but don’t have a good way to explain.

 

[Mahboi]

I was going down a Youtube rabbit hole and this video popped up in my feed. I think it hits a few points that a few of us in this thread already feel, but don’t have a good way to explain.

I skimmed through (it's not worth 40 mins), but the gist of it is that Tech invents more or less mad paradigms to get venture capitalists to invest, and then sell them the HW/SW to do it, but if the paradigm doesn't actually translate to money, tech still filled up their pockets.

Basically, AI is a scam but Jensen will get very rich.

 

[Saylick]

I skimmed through (it's not worth 40 mins), but the gist of it is that Tech invents more or less mad paradigms to get venture capitalists to invest, and then sell them the HW/SW to do it, but if the paradigm doesn't actually translate to money, tech still filled up their pockets.

Basically, AI is a scam but Jensen will get very rich.

I wouldn't necessarily go so far as to call AI a scam, but I think its yet another buzzword in a long history of tech buzzwords that were initially overhyped. When you have corporate MBA types using the buzzword loosely and applying it to things that don't make sense, it's overhyped imo.

 

[Mahboi]

I wouldn't necessarily go so far as to call AI a scam, but I think its yet another buzzword in a long history of tech buzzwords that were initially overhyped. When you have corporate MBA types using the buzzword loosely and applying it to things that don't make sense, it's overhyped imo.

I also wouldn't call it a scam (he does, more or less). I think AI is exactly today where the Internet was circa 1999/2000: in a crassly inflated bubble, with absurd expectations that'll never be met in an acceptable timeframe thrust onto it.

I can envision a ton of little applications for AI in the far future, but it'll be a slow growth over the next 15-20 years. Costs, dev time, model optimisation, etc, all of it will need to go down drastically in the next 10-15 years slowly before you get an AI for your images, AI for text generation, AI for sound, AI for for planning X Y Z...and they're all capable of being part of a business. Technically you have those today, but they're not gonna make money, they're all at a loss, and there is no ecosystem that's nearly developed enough yet. You COULD make a service where you have an AI that can read code and another one that can summarise it into text, and make docs out of that. That could cut a lot of dev time out. But it'll be years before all of those are viable enough...Let alone all offered in a unified service that's viable enough that a company can make money off it.

If you slowly grow compute and SW and build services that help people train an AI model, over the next 15-20 years, it'll turn out quite well. And you'd have AI everywhere with an acceptable cost, even if most of it will be ran in small to mid compute DCs (10kW to 200kW).
But if you pour 1 Zillion monies into AI now, it's all going to be spent over 2-3 years straight into Jensen's pockets, a few billions in AMD's, and when the pop happens, everyone will have spent their money for nothing. Nvidia and AMD will stick to their roadmaps, Meta will keep growing the software, people will keep growing the AI ecosystem...basically an insane amount of money up in smoke. Some things just take time.