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Thunder 57

Diamond Member
Aug 19, 2007
3,403
5,626
136
Yeah, Jensen's actions are mostly shaped from his early NVidia days where they were close to being bankrupt a handful of times, so it doesn't surprise me that he's taking the approach of eating like a pig whenever there's glut of food laid out in front of him. Doesn't matter what is creating that food source, whether it be ray tracing hype, blockchain hype, metaverse hype, AI hype, or self-driving car hype.


This a reflection on American tech sector capitalism imo. All the big players already make money hand over fist so when there's even a hint of a possible *new* gold mine, they'll gladly blow through billions of dollars while stumbling over each other to get there first. It doesn't even matter if that gold mine has enough gold to make the investment worthwhile, because shareholders will absolutely skewer the upper management for not taking action. Same thing with Nvidia, really. Shareholders would skewer JHH for not trying to be monopolistic when such an opportunity presents itself.

There's always been FOMO. Just look at FB's record buying up VR (Oculus) then rebranding expecting the "metaverse" to become a thing. I remember Zuckerberg saying how you would be able to wear a stupid HMD and "teleport" into a concert for example. Who would ever think that was a good way to showcase your idea? You take out the two most important elements of concerts, the live music and the social aspect of it. Then again, FB makes money when we stop interacting with each other in real life. If there's one thing I've learned about humans, it's that we don't want to wear stupid things on our heads. It happened with 3D TV, Google Glass, VR, and that fruit company may be the next example of it.

Then there is the "Google Graveyard" of things they shut down. The most recent great example that comes to mind is Stadia. Just another FOMO moment. Until VC's stop throwing money at everything tech and hoping to strike gold, it isn't going to stop. Right now it just happens to be AI, and that rewards Nvidia handsomely.
 

coercitiv

Diamond Member
Jan 24, 2014
7,075
16,288
136
I remember Zuckerberg saying how you would be able to wear a stupid HMD and "teleport" into a concert for example. Who would ever think that was a good way to showcase your idea? You take out the two most important elements of concerts, the live music and the social aspect of it.
Same thing happened to Apple marketing during the launch of their headset: they had a cringe moment showing a parent taking snapshots of his kids while wearing the headset. Imagine being so disconnected you'd think a normal interaction between parents and their kids would look like this.

Their video chat idea using the headset was also weird, but at least there they understood the pitfall and tried to address it using the tech. Seeing the real face of someone during a call is the best fix in communication for not being able to be next to them: you still get to see their facial expression and micro-reactions, which is crucial in interpersonal communication. The VR headset inherently denies this last way of improving comms.

Going back to the main subject, I would not blame any of the chip-makers for selling shovels to gold diggers, as long as they're not the ones creating the false hype. Nvidia in particular knows how to put machine learning to good use.
 
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Thunder 57

Diamond Member
Aug 19, 2007
3,403
5,626
136
Same thing happened to Apple marketing during the launch of their headset: they had a cringe moment showing a parent taking snapshots of his kids while wearing the headset. Imagine being so disconnected you'd think a normal interaction between parents and their kids would look like this.

Their video chat idea using the headset was also weird, but at least there they understood the pitfall and tried to address it using the tech. Seeing the real face of someone during a call is the best fix in communication for not being able to be next to them: you still get to see their facial expression and micro-reactions, which is crucial in interpersonal communication. The VR headset inherently denies this last way of improving comms.

Going back to the main subject, I would not blame any of the chip-makers for selling shovels to gold diggers, as long as they're not the ones creating the false hype. Nvidia in particular knows how to put machine learning to good use.

Do you have a link to that sad looking ad? That sounds horrifying.
 

Mahboi

Golden Member
Apr 4, 2024
1,057
1,969
96
I actually wonder what's NV going to do with their cash mountain once the bubble pops.
It's not as simple as "reinvesting". They've already been denied ARM, and they're not trying again. They're also very much a company that aims at optimising margins by settling in very high bleeding edge sectors with little to no competition. Jensen doesn't like having flies around the deer he's carving.

So what are they going to do? Buy more corpos? Which ones? How many corporations are in top tier bleeding edge markets and would mesh with Nvidia's business? How many Mellanoxes are there?
I don't see them trying to genuinely enter the ARM SoC market, too much competition for their taste.
I do see them investing in some software (seems like finance stuff would absolutely be Jensen's fav new toy), but again, much competition.

Nvidia has thrived in their niche. They've thrived a ton, and have IMO reached the peak of what their niche will bring in terms of growth. One corporation rarely bubbles twice. So where's all the money going to go? Just secure the GPU niche to infinity? Placate AMD for the next 10 years?
 

Timorous

Golden Member
Oct 27, 2008
1,883
3,617
136
I actually wonder what's NV going to do with their cash mountain once the bubble pops.
It's not as simple as "reinvesting". They've already been denied ARM, and they're not trying again. They're also very much a company that aims at optimising margins by settling in very high bleeding edge sectors with little to no competition. Jensen doesn't like having flies around the deer he's carving.

So what are they going to do? Buy more corpos? Which ones? How many corporations are in top tier bleeding edge markets and would mesh with Nvidia's business? How many Mellanoxes are there?
I don't see them trying to genuinely enter the ARM SoC market, too much competition for their taste.
I do see them investing in some software (seems like finance stuff would absolutely be Jensen's fav new toy), but again, much competition.

Nvidia has thrived in their niche. They've thrived a ton, and have IMO reached the peak of what their niche will bring in terms of growth. One corporation rarely bubbles twice. So where's all the money going to go? Just secure the GPU niche to infinity? Placate AMD for the next 10 years?

Buy Intel...
 
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Timorous

Golden Member
Oct 27, 2008
1,883
3,617
136
The heck's buying a sinking Titanic going to do for them???

x86. Would get them more design wins for their CPU + GPU products like GH. Also gets them fabs and with how ruthless JHH is I bet he could turn Intel around pretty damn fast.
 

Mahboi

Golden Member
Apr 4, 2024
1,057
1,969
96
x86. Would get them more design wins for their CPU + GPU products like GH. Also gets them fabs and with how ruthless JHH is I bet he could turn Intel around pretty damn fast.
x64 is owned by AMD.
The thing that gets you design wins is quality CPUs, not an ISA.
Intel's Fabs are in a mostly dreadful state.
JHH is not "ruthless", he's been building his own little world at Nvidia with very little competition his whole life. Boarding the Intel sinking ship sounds like a nightmare scenario for someone who'd rather be King in his garden than Lord of the land.
 
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Timorous

Golden Member
Oct 27, 2008
1,883
3,617
136
x64 is owned by AMD.
The thing that gets you design wins is quality CPUs, not an ISA.
Intel's Fabs are in a mostly dreadful state.
JHH is not "ruthless", he's been building his own little world at Nvidia with very little competition his whole life. Boarding the Intel sinking ship sounds like a nightmare scenario for someone who'd rather be King in his garden than Lord of the land.

Given you have said how CUDA proliferation is a problem for ROCm are you really unable to see the vast amounts of software written for x86 that has not been compiled for other architectures, really?

x86 gives them a different slice of the market and a very big slice, one they cannot compete in right now.

AMD / NV would cross licence, no way at all Nv would be allowed to buy Intel without agreeing to that.

Also, I was not being entirely serious, although your arguments against my not very serious idea have not exactly been that strong.
 

GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
7,747
8,764
136
Once upon a time Jensen was open to Nvidia merging with AMD, so long as he got to stay on as CEO.

AMD didn't like that one bit, bought ATi instead and the rest is history.

I can see the Intel thing happening... So long as Pat GTFO.
 

Mahboi

Golden Member
Apr 4, 2024
1,057
1,969
96
Given you have said how CUDA proliferation is a problem for ROCm are you really unable to see the vast amounts of software written for x86 that has not been compiled for other architectures, really?

x86 gives them a different slice of the market and a very big slice, one they cannot compete in right now.

AMD / NV would cross licence, no way at all Nv would be allowed to buy Intel without agreeing to that.

Also, I was not being entirely serious, although your arguments against my not very serious idea have not exactly been that strong.
They are AND they are doing a high performance handheld chip too.
Once upon a time Jensen was open to Nvidia merging with AMD, so long as he got to stay on as CEO.

AMD didn't like that one bit, bought ATi instead and the rest is history.

I can see the Intel thing happening... So long as Pat GTFO.
I don't even know where to begin, so I'm just going to take everything in one broad stroke.

Nvidia's entire construction since the early GPU days has been to build exclusivity. This started to be particularly visible with how much they poured into software over hardware. You could just say it was "the right move", but really, it was also a way to expand on the control over their hardware, handling everything with limited hardware access that allowed them to vertically integrate and control the software stack away from pesky clients that could have done things Nvidia didn't want.
This was seen more strongly a few years later when CUDA started: not an open standard, no option to integrate your own stuff to Nvidia's stuff. NV offered the door to their hardware and made it very wide (CUDA works on all devices) and very approachable (CUDA is actually well built despite its age). You get Nvidia quality, but you don't get freedom.

This corporate culture allowed NV to strongly grow, because the deal with Jensen is a simple deal: they control everything, but they take responsibility to make it reliable/good enough that clients don't need to worry about insufficient support. This is an extreme contrast to AMD, who give a ton of development freedom and try every open standard they can find, but pour ridiculously low amounts of software and support in comparison with Nvidia. Nvidia is security under Jensen's thumb, AMD is freedom in an anarchic, underdeveloped ecosystem.

Past the early days of CUDA where it was mostly about adoption, between say 2012-2018 (after which AI, ofc), Nvidia did nothing but assert more control over their own software stack and clients. A little Nvidia golden cage that grew year after year. You can see the effects of that in things like NVENC also: NV did everything to control the entire system internally. It wouldn't have been hard to make a standard API for encoding/decoding that worked for Intel/AMD/NV, but NV is not interested in playing nice.

Along this, there's an important component about Nvidia's internal structure: they have very little of it. For a company of that size, the amount of corporate hierarchy and on-hands management is VERY low. This is because Jensen's philosophy on hiring is that if they're good enough to be hired at Nvidia, they're good enough to not need a manager chaperoning everything they do. If they're not good enough to be autonomous and bringing returns to the company, they don't belong. Period.
This sounds like some kind of management heaven, but it only works on the premise that you don't have "small hands". You don't have people doing the lame jobs and the dumb ones, you only have smart people doing smart things for smart roles. Problem is, almost every bigger company out there is going to have "small hands" and small jobs. This kind of "everyone is good, everyone is talented, everyone is smart, everyone gets well paid, everyone is happy" little world can only exist if you have high income, high added value for every job. Middling returns are simply not acceptable; you want smarts? You want talent? You pay for it, and that kind of money has to come from highly optimised returns.

To spell it out, Nvidia as a little powerhouse of talents can only exist BECAUSE they designed the entire company to make high net income products and services. They COULD have chosen to do more open source or relieve themselves of some difficult things; instead they took all the responsibilities upon themselves and took away the freedom of their clients. More hassle for them, but also more control and more money. Jensen didn't just "hire good people because good people are good". If it were this easy, HR in every company would've been thrown in the dumpster to choke and die on moldy orange peels, as God intended.

And of course, the ultimate expression of Nvidia the way Jensen built it is to end up being paid obscene amounts of money for access to overpriced hardware that is paid for because it's tied to a proprietary stack where they hold more control than AMD or Intel ever did. He designed Nvidia like a spear: all about piercing into markets with high margins and making away with as much percentage as possible.


In contrast to all this Jensenian business philosophy, Intel and AMD are both built the exact opposite. They're generalists with entries in a ton of businesses. Bought so many smaller companies. Focused on everything that entered a computer, Intel particularly (remember Optane? Intel wifi chips? Intel switches existed too I believe? the AI companies they bought? ARC? and so on). They don't care about splurging into a field if it feels like it will expand their market. This is a radical difference in every part of the business.

Where Intel and AMD will attempt to sell as much volume as possible, or historically have at the very least(AMD's margin obsession is fairly recent, they used to be far more balanced), Nvidia did everything to focus on the core business that brought in money. Intel tries Optane? AMD tried mobile at some point? Nvidia was about GPUs, where the money was. Intel gains a zillion monies with CPU, so they try to expand to everything? Nvidia gains a zillion monies with GPU, and they're very happy, please don't bother them.

This also goes in line with the fact that AFAIK, Nvidia never even bothered to have a Fab. Sure, lots of companies didn't either, but Fabs are a logical way to integrate vertically, aren't they? And yet they never bothered. Because their entire philosophy is about getting the golden sheep, and to ride it. They don't shear it to open new divisions or buy a ton of possible business expansions and side gigs. They just ride the one income driver forever. Opening a Fab would technically give them more control, but the margins/returns wouldn't be as high.

I said Nvidia was designed like a spear, maximise damage at the point of margin. Intel and AMD are designed like axes, cut large parts of the market in broad strokes that do not have the same effort/penetration ratio.

IF you gave Jensen Intel. That is GIVING him the company, one symbolic dollar for it, and he was the sole owner of the entire shares but HAD to run the company himself, he would destroy Intel within a few years.
He would try to find the moneymaker, and dump everything else. He would try to get rid of IFS. He would go around amputating the company of all the parts he deems gangrenous, which is all the parts that do not reach his lofty margin expectations. Which...is all the parts. He would kill Intel.

Jensen didn't build Nvidia as "a successful company", that is an incredibly Reddit tier take on them. He built it like his own little kingdom where everyone would be clever and make each other money together. He relented on unnecessary corporate control and just expected everyone to be smart. It's built sort of like a cool frat boy company, every cool guy goes to Nvidia and that makes them the coolest, and richest, company around. But cool guys don't touch uncool things.

Jensen doesn't want low margins. He doesn't want volume. He HAS the volume, sure, but in his mind it's because he built the cool thing. Always remember that Thermi was a pivotal moment in tech history where AMD had the better and cheaper product while Nvidia had the fatter, more expensive, and all around worse product. But he didn't care because it would allow him to create the Compute market and put his thumb over it for the next 20 years. Jensen went for the expensive, risky, and poorly designed thing that he could sell for high margins, over the standard, tried and tested, uncool "normal graphics card".

So for all the people that think that "Jensen will buy Intel because it makes sense", Intel is the last thing that Jensen wants to buy. It is the antithesis to what he's built his whole life. And the antithesis to how he views business. Cool frat boy company that controls the entire stack on the inside, dominant, nothing shared conqueror company on the outside.

And also, that bit about "he said he'd allow AMD to buy Nvidia, if he were the CEO of the new company"?
That's not a serious offer and he knew it. He was basically saying "you can pay to have me and my company but I'll be the boss of you because you're all terrible". Don't forget that Jensen did his classes at AMD younger. The man has a serious ego and loves to tell stories, I'm sure the story of him being a little guy at AMD is one he wanted to erase from history.

Now I'm not saying that Jensen will never not have Intel. I could see a situation where Intel, or more realistically the american govt, get desperate enough that they basically offer themselves up to Jensen to get saved. And nonetheless, I don't take a single word out of what I said: that would be Intel's death. He would gut the company down to nothing like what it was. Jensen's not a genius any more than Lisa or many other very smart people of the industry. He just found the way to make the most money out of the least diversity.
 

TESKATLIPOKA

Platinum Member
May 1, 2020
2,604
3,169
136
I think Jensen is pretty sad.
Nvidia is only the 3th 4th most valued company today, with market cap of $3.040 Trillion.
The most valued company is Chipotle Mexican Grill, an international chain of fast casual restaurants specializing in bowls, tacos, and Mission burritos made to order in front of the customer.
It looks like Mexican cuisine is a bigger hype than AI.

But seriously, what is happening with US stock market? How can a company with only $9.87B revenue and $1.63B profit have market cap of $4.463 Trillion.
That's ~1/3 of the whole EU's stock market!


P.S. Ok maybe companiesmarketcap.com had some glitch or something because now It has only $89.19 B value.
 
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