Discussion Nvidia Blackwell in Q1-2025

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Ranulf

Platinum Member
Jul 18, 2001
2,718
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I stumbled across Raja's Xitter post about GTC. Even he acknowledges the industry is a little *too* enamored by Nvidia:

The full quote:

"The annual green tech cult fest is in town. A tell-tale symptom of a tech cult is when the "crushed" take selfies with the "crusher-in-chief" and post it gleefully on all platforms. You will find some of the "crushed" later in the evenings in bars around San Jose, crying over shoulders of competitors...."
 
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Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,866
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The full quote:

"The annual green tech cult fest is in town. A tell-tale symptom of a tech cult is when the "crushed" take selfies with the "crusher-in-chief" and post it gleefully on all platforms. You will find some of the "crushed" later in the evenings in bars around San Jose, crying over shoulders of competitors...."
In thinking about this quote some more, I think those "crushed" are basically those who are partnering with Nvidia, whether it be customers who buy their server GPUs like hyperscalers and cloud service providers or anyone who is hitching their business to Nvidia's success because their own greed necessitates it. However, the "crushing" is literally Nvidia dictating the terms of their business arrangement given their current position as the conductor in this AI hypetrain, even though in many instances Nvidia is developing in-house products or solutions which is currently or eventually will directly compete with those being "crushed". This applies to both the hardware and software side. For example, Google/Microsoft/Amazon/Meta trying to develop their own in-house AI chips while still begging and groveling to buy Nvidia GPUs. On the software side, there's a ton of programmers developing open source tools for Nvidia's AI stack but every GTC Jensen announces their own in-house software stack for an emerging application of AI which obsoletes those who are developing it independently.

To summarize it, it's basically "join us or get annihilated" and many choose to join Nvidia rather than get run over by the hype train moving at Mach 5.
There is good reason why I call it NPC.
NV just copy Jobs era Apple, JHH is not nearly as original as most think.
Yeah, I can see the commonality. A lot of those in the physical crowd during Apple keynotes were Apple investors or basically fan boys who would've cheered regardless of what Steve said. The finance news outlets never gave a crap about Nvidia until they saw the money roll in, and then they slurped up the Nvidia Kool-Aid even though they barely understand any of it. Jensen literally just rants for 2 hours and everyone who is on-board just nods their head in blissful ignorance while periodically checking the value of their own Nvidia stock holdings and making sure that the number next to the % symbol is green.

I mean, this is literally a response from Jensen during the Analyst Q&A session. Jensen just says buzzwords he likely came up with while in bed and the whole industry just runs with it because we live in America and if someone is making this much money, they must be worshipped.
So I asked Jensen what he wants the company to stand for in 3-5 years. His answer was around 14 minutes long. The TLDR: I told everyone a decade ago. I told everybody in the keynote, too. - #1 NVIDIA is an infrastructure business, not an AI product company. Why we laid out 4 years of roadmap “like no other technology company ever has.” - #2 NVIDIA is an AI Factory company. Customer has to do GB and VR because customer has to drive revenue. “And nobody says, Guess what? I think I'm going to save my revenues for three years from now.”- #3 NVIDIA is a Foundational company. “We are a foundational company for every industry and every company, and, therefore, we can’t have surprises.” He made a very interesting parallel to TSMC. My takeaway was that he sees some perceive TSMC as a transistor product company versus a foundational company. (Like NVIDIA).Also an interesting funding conversation that I perceived as trust in execution. Essentially, if you had $100B and two years to build an AI factory, who will you go to? Who do you trust? “My question is, what do you choose? Who do you place the PO on right now as we speak, just try and do it.” I couldn’t help but to think of Stargate…. Maybe a message to hyperscalers with ASICs? On what I perceived as SAM: “We are manufacturing intelligence. And back to the first principle, what are we doing? We manufacture intelligence, and what is, which industry is intelligence for? And I just described every single industry.” Like I said, one of the most insightful conversations with Jensen I’ve been a part of.

Like, wtf does "we are manufacturing intelligence" even mean?
 
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branch_suggestion

Senior member
Aug 4, 2023
631
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Yeah, I can see the commonality. A lot of those in the physical crowd during Apple keynotes were Apple investors or basically fan boys who would've cheered regardless of what Steve said. The finance news outlets never gave a crap about Nvidia until they saw the money roll in, and then they slurped up the Nvidia Kool-Aid even though they barely understand any of it. Jensen literally just rants for 2 hours and everyone who is on-board just nods their head in blissful ignorance while periodically checking the value of their own Nvidia stock holdings and making sure that the number next to the % symbol is green.
Well it all began by using a generic name for a vendor specific marketing conference (WWDC>GTC).
Both names simply shouldn't be allowed, actual industry conferences get overshadowed and it has always annoyed me.
 

TESKATLIPOKA

Platinum Member
May 1, 2020
2,623
3,189
136
Still think it's gonna be $500 for the 16.
As @igor_kavinski said, It should be $449, $50 less than previous generation. But MRSP doesn't matter when you can't get anything at that price.
You have to remember that nVidia doesn't really want to sell the 16 GB version. Only the 8 and the inevitable 12 GB Super.
Of course they want to sell It, but It won't be cheap.
36CU 5060Ti 16GB - $449
30CU 5060 8 GB - $349
The biggest profit Nvidia can make is from this 16GB version.
I don't think we will see a Blackwell refresh with 24Gbit memory this year and I am not sure they will also refresh the GB206.
 

poke01

Diamond Member
Mar 8, 2022
3,381
4,625
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Yeah, I can see the commonality. A lot of those in the physical crowd during Apple keynotes were Apple investors or basically fan boys who would've cheered regardless of what Steve said. The finance news outlets never gave a crap about Nvidia until they saw the money roll in, and then they slurped up the Nvidia Kool-Aid even though they barely understand any of it. Jensen literally just rants for 2 hours and everyone who is on-board just nods their head in blissful ignorance while periodically checking the value of their own Nvidia stock holdings and making sure that the number next to the % symbol is green.
Yep this is exactly like Jobs era Apple, its the almost the embodiment but much worse, I never seen anything like that. Cooking like that in a tech conference is crazy, the attention must be around Jensen. Also Pat doesn't look happy lol. he's like "wtf is jensen doing"



 

aigomorla

CPU, Cases&Cooling Mod PC Gaming Mod Elite Member
Super Moderator
Sep 28, 2005
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The monitor that will bring the 5090 to its knees.
57" 4k ultra wide.

It's even cheaper than the 5090 ROFL.


my brother has the samsung version of it thats not OLED.
Its basically 2 4k monitors streched in a very nasty ARC.
You can't even arm it, because the torque on the monitor causes 99% of the arms to tilt.
But i heard a 5090 is enough for it, which is why im trying desperately to get 2 5090's.

One for him and one for me.

He needs an ice version so he will end up paying more initally, while i am looking for the FE version, but after i buy the expensive as hell waterblock for it, which runs almost 200-300 dollars i think we'll almost be even... wait... no i think i'll still end up paying less for my card which will probably run rings around his because it will have a full cover waterblock keeping this stupidly hot as heck ram in check.

And you wonder why eVGA gave nvidia the middle finger and said no more GPU's.
 

poke01

Diamond Member
Mar 8, 2022
3,381
4,625
106
Intel might not even make it past this decade because of idiot board members who don't even hold a degree in Computer science
Intel will be fine if Panther Lake and Nova Lake succeed. Also they got 2 board members that are semi people now.

We need Intel to stay and keep NV in check in client and maybe in 10 years in datacenter
 

TESKATLIPOKA

Platinum Member
May 1, 2020
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They want to sell the 8 GB version (and the 12 GB Super). I am thinking the 16 GB version will go away once the 12 GB Super comes out.
What you wrote doesn't make sense.

12GB version has to be sold cheaper than the 16GB one, because of less Cuda and Vram. So they won't discontinue the 16GB version, which has the full chip.

They will get rid of 8GB version instead by introducing the super with 12GB and more Cuda enabled, makes more sense.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,967
6,459
136
What you wrote doesn't make sense.
12GB version has to be sold cheaper than the 16GB one

Yes, which is why the 16 GB almost has to be $500. It's a throwaway product for marketing reasons.

I am thinking the 8 GB will be somewhere between $399 and $449 and the 12 GB Super $449.

So the MSRPs will look something like this:

5070 $549
5060 Ti 16 GB $499
5060 Ti 8 GB $429
5060 $349

And maybe look like this later...

5070 Super 18 GB $549+
5060 Ti Super 12 GB $449
5060 Super 12 GB $399
5060 Super 8 GB $349
 
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TESKATLIPOKA

Platinum Member
May 1, 2020
2,623
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Yes, which is why the 16 GB almost has to be $500. It's a throwaway product for marketing reasons.

I am thinking the 8 GB will be somewhere between $399 and $449 and the 12 GB Super $449.
We know Nvidia is greedy, but they are not stupid.
9060XT 16GB should compare to 5060Ti 16GB pretty well and I don't think It will cost more than $399.

P.S.
36CU 5060 Ti 16GB - $449
32-34CU 5060 Super 12GB - $349-379
30CU 5060 8GB - $349
I question If they will actually release Ti 8GB, that would be a truly useless GPU.
 
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maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
5,075
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Yes, which is why the 16 GB almost has to be $500. It's a throwaway product for marketing reasons.

I am thinking the 8 GB will be somewhere between $399 and $449 and the 12 GB Super $449.

So the MSRPs will look something like this:

5070 $549
5060 Ti 16 GB $499
5060 Ti 8 GB $429
5060 $349

And maybe look like this later...

5070 Super 18 GB $549+
5060 Ti Super 12 GB $449
5060 Super 12 GB $399
5060 Super 8 GB $349
A "throwaway" product that charges $70 to double the ram?
 

TESKATLIPOKA

Platinum Member
May 1, 2020
2,623
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The 16 GB one is intentionally meant to be the useless SKU. It's just for PR reasons.
The useless one is actually the 8GB version.

Seriously, who in their right mind would pay $429 for a 5060Ti 8GB, when the 16GB version costs only $70 more according to you?
Paying more than $299 for a 8GB card is stupid, doesn't matter how powerful the GPU is.
 
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MrTeal

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
3,876
2,550
136
We know Nvidia is greedy, but they are not stupid.
9060XT 16GB should compare to 5060Ti 16GB pretty well and I don't think It will cost more than $399.

P.S.
36CU 5060 Ti 16GB - $449
32-34CU 5060 Super 12GB - $349-379
30CU 5060 8GB - $349
I question If they will actually release Ti 8GB, that would be a truly useless GPU.
It'll be interesting to see. N44 according to leaks is 1/2 of N48 in pretty much every way. These 5060 Ti specs put it just a hair over half a 5070 Ti, so just looking at the spec sheet you'd expect the 5060 Ti to be the faster card with maybe a little larger margin than the bigger cards.

Functionally the cards should be closer though. The 9070 XT's big deficit to the 5070 Ti is in path tracing games, but that level of ray tracing is going to be beyond these GPUs. Sites will still test them and make bar charts showing the 5060 Ti being 2x faster than the 9060 XT, but it'll be 8FPS vs 16.
 
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TESKATLIPOKA

Platinum Member
May 1, 2020
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It'll be interesting to see. N44 according to leaks is 1/2 of N48 in pretty much every way. These 5060 Ti specs put it just a hair over half a 5070 Ti, so just looking at the spec sheet you'd expect the 5060 Ti to be the faster card with maybe a little larger margin than the bigger cards.
It will be faster, the question is by how much. If AMD doesn't care about high TDP(TBP), then It could be only a few % difference in raster.
 

amenx

Diamond Member
Dec 17, 2004
4,224
2,556
136
As enthusiast gamers need to upgrade every gen, so may AI/server businesses require similarly.
Your $20 billion Hopper order is near obsolete ... Jensen

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang joked about something that could cost his biggest customers billions of dollars

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang made a joke this week that his biggest customers probably won't find funny.

"I said before that when Blackwell starts shipping in volume, you couldn't give Hoppers away," he said at Nvidia's big AI conference Tuesday.

"There are circumstances where Hopper is fine," he added. "Not many."

He was talking about Nvidia's latest AI chip-and-server package, Blackwell. It's notably better than the previous version, Hopper, which came out in 2022...

https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-joke-blackwell-hopper-gpu-customers-2025-3

And in a couple more years you may not be able to give your Blackwells away.
 
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