Discussion Nvidia Blackwell in Q1-2025

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poke01

Diamond Member
Mar 8, 2022
3,038
4,018
106
It's not going to be cheaper than the 40 series original MSRP. This is nVidia we are talking about.
I mean even Intel increased their GPU prices from last gen. Nvidia will definitely increase them
 

Heartbreaker

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2006
4,653
6,109
136
on your opinion trust/not trust


He's just repeating the same predictions/rumors that have been out there for MANY months, and he hasn't even narrowed it down at all - he still has a $500 range on 5090.

Pretty much everyone expects 5090 to be $1999 to $2499. Not many people even argued against this when it showed up months ago. I think it could easily cost $2500.

5080 has long been rumored to be $1200+ as well. Though there is more pushback on this one, I seem to remember discussions here about this months ago, where I argued it will be more like $999, while $1200 is a possibility here, there is really no chance it will be $1500, that would be an even worse mistake than 4080.

This is before the Tariffs kick in. Unknown what those might be...
 

blckgrffn

Diamond Member
May 1, 2003
9,501
3,816
136
www.teamjuchems.com
He's just repeating the same predictions/rumors that have been out there for MANY months, and he hasn't even narrowed it down at all - he still has a $500 range on 5090.

Pretty much everyone expects 5090 to be $1999 to $2499. Not many people even argued against this when it showed up months ago. I think it could easily cost $2500.

5080 has long been rumored to be $1200+ as well. Though there is more pushback on this one, I seem to remember discussions here about this months ago, where I argued it will be more like $999, while $1200 is a possibility here, there is really no chance it will be $1500, that would be an even worse mistake than 4080.

This is before the Tariffs kick in. Unknown what those might be...
Depending on the severity of the tariffs they are going to be a very convenient scapegoat.

Since tariffs are based on (in my small experience) the cost of the item and not the retail value and the margins should be the best on the high end products with any sane merchandising strategy the high end skus should be the least impacted by tariffs but hey if retailers can up the retail products by an equivalent percentage and everyone just shrugs and lets it happen then the profit in terms of absolute dollars will go up.

Here is what I can say definitively - my container quotes went up a lot just now.



My quote expired and I got a new one and I was shocked it went from $3,300 estimated landed cost to $5,500. That's before "fees" that magically appear and existing duties, so now I have to budget ~$8k at a minimum vs ~$5k before.

Consider that a 20' container was like $2k before and the 40' was maybe $2,600 - and this doesn't include any fees (I can smell thousands in port congestion fees that get slapped on the container at the last second and are non-negotiable) and this will definitely play into product costs in 2025. I expect that early 2025 landed container prices could easily double. This is just on the threat of tariffs.

This past spring a quoted ~$4k container turned into almost $9k when rates sharply adjusted, congestion fees were added and our container was chosen for inspection (ha, added about $800 to our bill to have our container opened and some of our product destroyed to be proven out to be what we said was).

Again, this impacts lower value cargo than higher value ones, so containers of 5090s will handle this better than 5060's and 3050's depending on packing density.

I've always wondered if stateside packaging would be better for some of this stuff with super high density/safe bulk packaging and then retail boxing it here. My adventures in stateside packaging bulk goods would say no, its still wildly cheaper to have less dense containers and take advantage of inexpensive labor and materials overseas but hey, maybe there's better ways?
 
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Win2012R2

Senior member
Dec 5, 2024
647
609
96
margins should be the best on the high end products
Nobody is going to give up their margins because of tariffs, they will only go up to make up for aggro and uncertainty, most retailers selling NVIDIA GPUs have very small margins - NVIDIA gets almost all the money.
 

blckgrffn

Diamond Member
May 1, 2003
9,501
3,816
136
www.teamjuchems.com
Nobody is going to give up their margins because of tariffs, they will only go up to make up for aggro and uncertainty, most retailers selling NVIDIA GPUs have very small margins - NVIDIA gets almost all the money.

Right?

Wait, who pays for tariffs again? lmao, I kid and please lets not devolve this thread.

I think the points that the "tariffs" will provide cover is made, but I was just saying other actual costs are going up, although its likely that they have Q1 products landed or already on the water and are really hoping to get it out of the port prior to late January. That's not a stretch of the imagination, IMO. So the first batch of sales shouldn't really be impacted.
 
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Heartbreaker

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2006
4,653
6,109
136
Depending on the severity of the tariffs they are going to be a very convenient scapegoat.

Since tariffs are based on (in my small experience) the cost of the item and not the retail value and the margins should be the best on the high end products with any sane merchandising strategy the high end skus should be the least impacted by tariffs but hey if retailers can up the retail products by an equivalent percentage and everyone just shrugs and lets it happen then the profit in terms of absolute dollars will go up.

Here is what I can say definitively - my container quotes went up a lot just now.

View attachment 113404

My quote expired and I got a new one and I was shocked it went from $3,300 estimated landed cost to $5,500. That's before "fees" that magically appear and existing duties, so now I have to budget ~$8k at a minimum vs ~$5k before.

Consider that a 20' container was like $2k before and the 40' was maybe $2,600 - and this doesn't include any fees (I can smell thousands in port congestion fees that get slapped on the container at the last second and are non-negotiable) and this will definitely play into product costs in 2025. I expect that early 2025 landed container prices could easily double. This is just on the threat of tariffs.

This past spring a quoted ~$4k container turned into almost $9k when rates sharply adjusted, congestion fees were added and our container was chosen for inspection (ha, added about $800 to our bill to have our container opened and some of our product destroyed to be proven out to be what we said was).

Again, this impacts lower value cargo than higher value ones, so containers of 5090s will handle this better than 5060's and 3050's depending on packing density.

I've always wondered if stateside packaging would be better for some of this stuff with super high density/safe bulk packaging and then retail boxing it here. My adventures in stateside packaging bulk goods would say no, its still wildly cheaper to have less dense containers and take advantage of inexpensive labor and materials overseas but hey, maybe there's better ways?

I would expect everyone to importing and stockpiling a lot now before the tariffs, which will lead to more competition/congestion for containers.
 
Jul 27, 2020
22,307
15,567
146
some of our product destroyed to be proven out to be what we said was).
Destroyed why? What was it? You mean taken out of packing? And then you let them destroy because it's worthless without packing or is it some law that product for inspection must always be destroyed?
 
Reactions: blckgrffn

blckgrffn

Diamond Member
May 1, 2003
9,501
3,816
136
www.teamjuchems.com
Destroyed why? What was it? You mean taken out of packing? And then you let them destroy because it's worthless without packing or is it some law that product for inspection must always be destroyed?
Yep, they cut into a carton of product, damaging and destroying the box we would use for shipment. I would think it would be the same for most inspected goods, there will be some loss. It’s not like they are careful or subtle.

The fee is not for the inspection, rather it’s for facilitating the inspection.

@Heartbreaker yup, I’ve been seeing it on the horizon for months but deluded myself. That and we only got the vendor note the goods were ready in early December and it takes a couple weeks to move the goods to port and stage into the container so I was always doomed, but I thought I’d have a bit more time since Q4 is usually a very busy time anyway. Again, either deluding myself or being naive.
 
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Jul 27, 2020
22,307
15,567
146
Yep, they cut into a carton of product, damaging and destroying the box we would use for shipment. I would think it would be the same for most inspected goods, there will be some loss. It’s not like they are careful or subtle.
Brutes!

I got into a sticky situation when I was young and heeded the "advice" of a friend to cover a few HDDs with carbon paper to protect it from the X-ray inspection machine. They of course took it as suspicious and the guy was ready to cut open the hard drives with his tools when I shouted that they would get destroyed that way. That gave him pause (must've felt the dread in my voice) and then I said let me just give it back to my family to take back home. So I did and my hard drives were "saved".
 

blckgrffn

Diamond Member
May 1, 2003
9,501
3,816
136
www.teamjuchems.com
Brutes!

I got into a sticky situation when I was young and heeded the "advice" of a friend to cover a few HDDs with carbon paper to protect it from the X-ray inspection machine. They of course took it as suspicious and the guy was ready to cut open the hard drives with his tools when I shouted that they would get destroyed that way. That gave him pause (must've felt the dread in my voice) and then I said let me just give it back to my family to take back home. So I did and my hard drives were "saved".
So it goes, I'd be fine with it if I didn't have to pay so much for the privilege. It's expected to draw the short straw sometimes when importing.
 

Timmah!

Golden Member
Jul 24, 2010
1,554
904
136
He's just repeating the same predictions/rumors that have been out there for MANY months, and he hasn't even narrowed it down at all - he still has a $500 range on 5090.

Pretty much everyone expects 5090 to be $1999 to $2499. Not many people even argued against this when it showed up months ago. I think it could easily cost $2500.

5080 has long been rumored to be $1200+ as well. Though there is more pushback on this one, I seem to remember discussions here about this months ago, where I argued it will be more like $999, while $1200 is a possibility here, there is really no chance it will be $1500, that would be an even worse mistake than 4080.

This is before the Tariffs kick in. Unknown what those might be...
Personally i think 5080 might be on the cheaper side, given similar number of cores in comparison to 4080, so the additional perf is gonna come mostly from arch improvements and all that AI shenanigans, and faster RAM. So imo 900 - 999 is more likely than 1200 - this not taking tarrifs into consideration.
5090 i can see then +200 to 400 compared to 4090, so 1800 to 1999, to account for the chip size and RAM capacity increase. I dont think they go up to 2500 (retailers might), but greed in unlimited, so you never know.
 

Win2012R2

Senior member
Dec 5, 2024
647
609
96
If 5090 is at least 50%+ and ideally more in ray tracing then it will sell like hot cakes - even for $2500 (especially if they call it Titan - been a while since last good one!), there isn't even a fake rumour that AMD can hit this in RDNA5/UDNA1, so buying this card is good for next 2 years at least.
 

Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,798
8,666
136
Could just be Jensen priming the press with ridiculous pricing only to cut 10-20% off these numbers and all of a sudden everyone is cool with it. Then again, there's MSRP... and there's street pricing. Street pricing for the 5090 will likely be in the >$2,000 range.
Take with a grain of salt. Nothing is final until Nvidia announce it, but just saying… totally not beneath them to “leak” a ridiculous price to set expectations low only to offer something somewhat palatable so the masses go wild for it.
 
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