Discussion Nvidia Blackwell in Q4-2024 ?

[TESKATLIPOKA]

The 5080 is the full GB203 so at least it's more SMs than the 4080 Super. Also it's 400 W.

Only 5% more Cuda.
Not very optimistic, but GB207 supposedly has only 20SM, so a 20% regression compared to AD107's 24SM.
Nvidia wouldn't release a new GPU, which is slower than It's predecessor, It needs to be faster by at least 15%.
So I expect either IPC or clockspeed gains or both to make up for the missing SM and extra performance on top of that.

16GB Vram? Not really enough, but what did we expect? AMD also will stay at this amount, even If at a lower price.

 

[blackangus]

Only 5% more Cuda.
Not very optimistic, but GB207 supposedly has only 20SM, so a 20% regression compared to AD107's 24SM.
Nvidia wouldn't release a new GPU, which is slower than It's predecessor, It needs to be faster by at least 15%.
So I expect either IPC or clockspeed gains or both to make up for the missing SM and extra performance on top of that.

16GB Vram? Not really enough, but what did we expect? AMD also will stay at this amount, even If at a lower price.

Well on some games RT + DLSS on high at 4k is more than 16GB of ram yeah for the 5080 16 really isn't desirable.
Some games are even more than 16GB at 1080p (I read the lastest SW game was hitting 20 GB for 1080p RT + DLSS)

 

[jpiniero]

Only 5% more Cuda.
Not very optimistic, but GB207 supposedly has only 20SM, so a 20% regression compared to AD107's 24SM.
Nvidia wouldn't release a new GPU, which is slower than It's predecessor, It needs to be faster by at least 15%.

I def wouldn't expect much from any desktop GB207.

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

I def wouldn't expect much from any desktop GB207.

At least in desktop you still can hope for clamshell, but that won't happen in laptops.

 

[poke01]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1839577546528096385

With this Nvidia secures another generation of top flagship performance. Won’t get it as it’s stupidly expensive but will watch in awe when the benchmarks come in. A 512 bus is unheard of recently from an Nvidia GPU.

 

[BTRY B 529th FA BN]

Possibly no need for monitors to be using DSC with DP2.1a.. 1440p up to 500Hz, 1080p up to 900Hz: correct me if I am wrong.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Depends on when monitors get around to fully implementing DP2.1.

It's one of those standard where you can say DP2.1 without implementing full bandwidth, as in the new Sony 480Hz OLED with 2.1:

This new Sony OLED gaming monitor is super fast, tuned for pro gamers

The Sony Inzone M10S comes with a blazing-fast 480Hz refresh rate combined with a 1440p resolution, and has a clever 1:1 tournament mode.

www.pcgamesn.com

"one DisplayPort 2.1 port"

But apparently it's not full bandwidth:

 

[adroc_thurston]

Nvidia halting development of GB200 NVL36*2 (dual-rack 72 GPUs version); long-term AI and Nvidiaâ¦

Survey update:

medium.com

NVbros...

 

[poke01]

Nvidia halting development of GB200 NVL36*2 (dual-rack 72 GPUs version); long-term AI and Nvidiaâ¦

Survey update:

medium.com

View attachment 108508
NVbros...

Good. The faster this bubble drops and fails the better. It’s the next con after Crypto, Metaverse and now AI. What AI demands is unsustainable and inefficient. I hope companies stop investing in AI and Nvidia AI chips

 

[adroc_thurston]

Good. The faster this bubble drops and fails the better

It's not a bubble thing, NV execution just kinda folded.

 

[Mopetar]

Good. The faster this bubble drops and fails the better. It’s the next con after Crypto, Metaverse and now AI. What AI demands is unsustainable and inefficient. I hope companies stop investing in AI and Nvidia AI chips

Be careful what you wish for. JHH might decide to keep margins the same by increasing prices for gamers and charge even more.

While I'm being facetious, I wouldn't be at all surprised if it were used as an excuse to increase prices. Especially on the high end.

 

[Saylick]

Be careful what you wish for. JHH might decide to keep margins the same by increasing prices for gamers and charge even more.

While I'm being facetious, I wouldn't be at all surprised if it were used as an excuse to increase prices. Especially on the high end.

"The price hikes will continue until profit margins improve." - JHH, probably.

But in all seriousness, Nvidia can try to charge gamers more but gamers are more price sensitive than enterprise customers. It would be a fool's errand.

 

[CakeMonster]

Good. The faster this bubble drops and fails the better. It’s the next con after Crypto, Metaverse and now AI. What AI demands is unsustainable and inefficient. I hope companies stop investing in AI and Nvidia AI chips

AI has its uses but it would be great to have a correction big enough to take out the most delusional hype masters before they become trillionaires.

 

[MrTeal]

I don't think Metaverse even qualifies as a bubble.

 

[Saylick]

I don't think Metaverse even qualifies as a bubble.

Maybe a better term to use is fad.

 

[VirtualLarry]

"The price hikes will continue until profit margins improve." - JHH, probably.

But in all seriousness, Nvidia can try to charge gamers more but gamers are more price sensitive than enterprise customers. It would be a fool's errand.

Still, they warned that consumers could face higher prices or empty shelves for certain products. Some shipping companies have already warned of surcharges of $1,500 and $3,000 a container in the event of a strike, according to the analysts.

If the disruptions were to last, those costs will be eventually passed onto consumers. The last wave of inflation was partially caused by supply-chain disruptions during the pandemic, as the cost of shipping containers rose by some 400% from 2020 to 2022.

MSN

 

[jdubs03]

This is a decent breakdown of the nVIdia SKUs going back to the GTX 700 series.

Here’s a good chart showing the core/memory characteristics over time.

Spoiler

Bottom line is the GTX 5080 based on the recent rumors running around is more like a 5070 class and should be priced accordingly to previous historical figures.

 

[SteinFG]

please put large galleries under spoilers

 

[jdubs03]

You know you could’ve at least commented on the actual substance.

 

[SteinFG]

Bottom line is the GTX 5080 based on the recent rumors running around is more like a 5070 class and should be priced accordingly to previous historical figures.

that's not how it works in real world though.

I'm thinking, what if we compare by die size? Just remember that Samsung's 8nm is a lot cheaper, by some rumors as cheap as TSMC 12nm
780 - 561mm, 28nm, GPU uses binned die.
980 - 398mm, 28nm, GPU uses full die.
1080 - 314mm, 16nm, GPU uses full die.
2080 - 545mm, 12nm, GPU uses full die.
3080 - 628mm, 8nm, GPU uses binned die.
4080 - 379mm, 4nm, GPU uses full die.

About the same size as 980, bigger than 1080, smaller than 2080

 

[biostud]

Any chance they'll do 320 or 384 bit 5090 with 3Gb chips for 30 or 36 Gb memory?

 

[SteinFG]

Any chance they'll do 320 or 384 bit 5090 with 3Gb chips for 30 or 36 Gb memory?

It's possible, if they get faster memory there.
5090 with 28 Gbps @ 512 bit = 1.792 TB/s , 32GB with 2GB density packages, 6MB of 8MB L2 enabled per package, 96MB L2 total
5090 with 37.5 Gbps @ 384 bit = 1.800 TB/s , 36GB with 3GB density packages, 8MB of 8MB MB L2 enabled per package, 96MB L2 total

37.5 Gbps doesn't seem achievable until 6090 though, so I doubt.

 

[jpiniero]

You know you could’ve at least commented on the actual substance.

It is pretty clickbait. Shoulda been pretty obvious that NV bumped the GB202 specs to boost it's Workstation/AI performance. They will just charge a lot more.

5090's probally going to be $2499 if it is really using the full 512-bit.

 

[SteinFG]

It is pretty clickbait. Shoulda been pretty obvious that NV bumped the GB202 specs to boost it's Workstation/AI performance. They will just charge a lot more.

5090's probally going to be $2499 if it is really using the full 512-bit.

And then 5080 at $1000 would cost historically like a 70 class: ~40% of the flagship price 🤣

 

[jdubs03]

It is pretty clickbait. Shoulda been pretty obvious that NV bumped the GB202 specs to boost it's Workstation/AI performance. They will just charge a lot more.

5090's probally going to be $2499 if it is really using the full 512-bit.

What is clickbait? The HWUB title? I mean the data is what it is. Going by the ratios, a 5080 looks more like what a 5070 would be considering their previous product history. I don’t see how that can be considered clickbait. It’s data.
The 5080 as rumored has a lower core count ratio, by far, than any x80 class release in over 10 years. And they’re going to charge more for that? Nah that’s not cool.

And $2499 is just grossly expensive. Look at the 4090 launch price. Come on man, $900 more - a 56% increase? Sounds like you’re making excuses for monopolist pricing power. Because if this rumor is true, their behavior is that of a monopolist.

And then 5080 at $1000 would cost historically like a 70 class: ~40% of the flagship price 🤣

If this is the case, then it wouldn’t be as bad, since the price/performance compared to its predecessor would be better nominally (still terrible in relative terms). But something tells me they’ll charge more because they can.