Discussion Nvidia Blackwell in Q4-2024 ?

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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,365
5,884
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What is clickbait? The HWUB title?

Yeah.

And $2499 is just grossly expensive. Look at the 4090 launch price. Come on man, $900 more - a 56% increase? Sounds like you’re making excuses for monopolist pricing power. Because if this rumor is true, their behavior is that of a monopolist.

It's going to be crazy expensive to make. I assume the die is going to be close to the reticle limit plus GDDR7 is going to be pricey. But there are people out there will who pay for it (AI) hence why it exists.
 
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MrTeal

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
3,650
1,899
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I enjoyed the video, even if it glosses over a bunch of context. I would have preferred if he's done architectures rather than names and started with the GTX 600s; it would have made Kepler make more sense in the 600-2000 series stack, since in those generations the x80 card was a x04 class card and the Ti/flagship was a x10 card.
 

Heartbreaker

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2006
4,349
5,479
136
And then 5080 at $1000 would cost historically like a 70 class: ~40% of the flagship price 🤣

Sure, but IIRC, according to forum chatter, ever generation has moved naming one step wrong direction since Turing. So that would make this properly a 5050 or is that 5030 by now?

I'm Shakespearian when it comes to naming. It really doesn't matter. Only price and performance matters.

But in the absence of real news, this is something to make clickbait videos and forum chatter about.
 

gdansk

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2011
3,276
5,186
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Naming doesn't matter but the price moves up and the performance gap between reasonably priced and absurdly priced grows larger...
Nothing to complain about I'm sure!
 

Golgatha

Lifer
Jul 18, 2003
12,258
672
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In the 4000 series, the Super variants largely corrected the value proposition in the 4070 and 4080 (really the 4070 Ti Super) configurations. In the case of the 4070 Ti Super, you're getting 66% of the specs for 50% of the price, and about 70-75% of the performance of the flagship 4090. IMO they're still all overpriced, even adjusted for inflation, but it at least got better.

 
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Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,149
6,861
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Naming doesn't matter but the price moves up and the performance gap between reasonably priced and absurdly priced grows larger...
Nothing to complain about I'm sure!

The naming doesn't matter here, but Joe Schmoe consumers are definitely being mislead by the changes NVidia has made.

An x60 card used to be a good midrange product and now it's practically the bottom of the product stack.

Someone who previously bought a 1060 that was in the middle of the product stack for Pascal likely doesn't realize that a 4060 is now the lowest end desktop GPU that NVidia sells.

Caveat emptor, but shame on Nvidia nonetheless.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,365
5,884
136
The naming doesn't matter here, but Joe Schmoe consumers are definitely being mislead by the changes NVidia has made.

An x60 card used to be a good midrange product and now it's practically the bottom of the product stack.

Someone who previously bought a 1060 that was in the middle of the product stack for Pascal likely doesn't realize that a 4060 is now the lowest end desktop GPU that NVidia sells.

Apparently nVidia believes that people think that anything below 50 is garbage. So the 50 product is going to be very very entry level and there won't be a 50 product unless they are very sure there that will be the lowest product (or they'd have to do some shehanagans like the 2050 laptop if they end up being wrong)
 

Heartbreaker

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2006
4,349
5,479
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Apparently nVidia believes that people think that anything below 50 is garbage. So the 50 product is going to be very very entry level and there won't be a 50 product unless they are very sure there that will be the lowest product (or they'd have to do some shehanagans like the 2050 laptop if they end up being wrong)

Anything below 50 has generally been garbage. Both AMD and NVidia have a general pattern, that have 8 or 9 as the top card indicator, with 5 or 6 as the bottom for decent cards. With anything below 5 being barely above iGPU and iGPUs are getting better. Better iGPUs have probably killed 3 series cards from both AMD and NVidia for good, and 5 series will probably be more rare.

AMD is often worse than NVidia for naming, but seemingly don't get called on it...

RX 480 - 8 series, Top of the stack, but it was only a NVidia 6 series competitor... So 8 series that performs like 6 series... It's only going to compete at midrage, but still name like top enthusiast card, But that's ok, because AMD...

Then there was Vega - which just ignored all previous patterns.

Then back Navi 1x, where it was more back on pattern.

Latest Navi 3x, has the same top 9 series down to bottom 6 series as NVidia, with AMD 7600 and 4060, in a very similar price and performance at the bottom of their stack, and neither has anything below 6 series. It gets more challenging as iGPUs improve, to have a reason for 5 series card, let alone a 3 series card.
 
Reactions: MoogleW
Jul 27, 2020
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It gets more challenging as iGPUs improve, to have a reason for 5 series card, let alone a 3 series card.
Not as challenging as you make it out to be. RX 580, RX 5700, RX 6600 cards are still selling. People will get anything they can afford. 3050 cards apparently sell well enough that Nvidia bothered to create a 6GB variant. The allure of making more money from expensive cards is the real challenge Nvidia faces. Remains to be seen if Intel will serve the low end GPU sector with B380 and B310 cards.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,149
6,861
136
Apparently nVidia believes that people think that anything below 50 is garbage. So the 50 product is going to be very very entry level and there won't be a 50 product unless they are very sure there that will be the lowest product (or they'd have to do some shehanagans like the 2050 laptop if they end up being wrong)

In time it will be the x60 that's thought of as garbage as it's the low-end product that previously was called an x50 or x30 when Nvidia used those designations for their lowest end cards.

You can dupe consumers a few times, but eventually they wise up to what's going on. NVidia doesn't even need to do this and could just as easily have called the 4060 parts a 4050 or a 4040 for a more cut down card and used 4060 for the next card up the stack. The only reason they didn't is because they used the shift to hide price hikes.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,365
5,884
136
In time it will be the x60 that's thought of as garbage as it's the low-end product that previously was called an x50 or x30 when Nvidia used those designations for their lowest end cards.

The way costs are going, I could easily see the 60 cards going away.
 

Heartbreaker

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2006
4,349
5,479
136
In time it will be the x60 that's thought of as garbage as it's the low-end product that previously was called an x50 or x30 when Nvidia used those designations for their lowest end cards.

Maybe if iGPUs get more and more powerful, then only high end graphics will require a dGPU. Would this really be a problem?


You can dupe consumers a few times, but eventually they wise up to what's going on.

Duped how? If people ranting about NVidia on forums affected sales, NVidia would have gone out of business by now, but their market share only grows.
 

CP5670

Diamond Member
Jun 24, 2004
5,564
645
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The 5090 looks impressive and I would normally get it but I honestly won't use it enough to justify it. The 4090 handles everything except path tracing at 4K at 120hz, and I'm mostly playing DLC and mods for older games like Fallout London these days. DLSS 3.0 means there is less need to upgrade in general. PC VR is dead (24H2 Windows removes WMR and I will stick to 23H2 indefinitely) and there is no point in upgrading for that, and the 4090 handles it pretty well anyway. The 4090 street price is still higher than the price I paid two years ago and seems like it will never come down, especially if the 5090 comes out at a $2500+ street price.

I agree that only somewhat high end dGPU will be viable long term, like xx70 and up. Integrated and even phone GPUs have become pretty decent these days, more than enough for light games.
 

Aapje

Golden Member
Mar 21, 2022
1,519
2,081
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PC VR is dead (24H2 Windows removes WMR and I will stick to 23H2 indefinitely) and there is no point in upgrading for that, and the 4090 handles it pretty well anyway.

You'll be unsafe at the end of 2025, when you will stop getting security fixes.

Also, WMR is merely a failed standard for PCVR, having been replaced by OpenXR. You can continue enjoying VR with a better headset. Surely you can afford a Pimax Crystal Light if you could afford a 4090.
 

CP5670

Diamond Member
Jun 24, 2004
5,564
645
126
I forget to download the security updates as it is lol. This PC is used for games and music only and updates on manual only since they can break things that were previously working.

There is nothing new coming for PC VR anymore, not just WMR. I don't use VR enough to justify getting a new headset (and would also need new custom VR lenses for it).
 

Fallen Kell

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
6,114
475
126
You'll be unsafe at the end of 2025, when you will stop getting security fixes.
I guess that means I should really start looking into upgrading from Windows 10.... That said, I simply hate all the network based/cloud things and all the items that call home all the time (heck I only moved to Windows 10 this year when Steam finally dropped support for Windows 7).
 

Fallen Kell

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
6,114
475
126
Oh and not sure if anyone saw the news over on Tom's Hardware (and elsewhere), but Jensen Huang (Nvidia's CEO) is the keynote speaker at CES 2025, so there is a lot of speculation that they may be announcing the new cards at CES 2025. Considering the last time they were at CES as a keynote speaker, they announced the 40XX Super line, and the year before that they announced the 40XX series laptop chips as well as some of the 40XX Ti line, so they mainly show up with a keynote spot when they have some fairly important card announcements (and there are not really many announcements that they would make with the 40XX series at this point, so good bet is that it will be 50XX series announcements). Oh, and given that this is CES (i.e. Consumer Electronics Show), they wouldn't be announcing enterprise/workstation cards at this kind of event, but consumer cards....
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,365
5,884
136
Oh and not sure if anyone saw the news over on Tom's Hardware (and elsewhere), but Jensen Huang (Nvidia's CEO) is the keynote speaker at CES 2025, so there is a lot of speculation that they may be announcing the new cards at CES 2025.

Pretty much a safe bet if they don't get announced before then.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,365
5,884
136

Fallen Kell

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
6,114
475
126
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