Discussion Nvidia Blackwell in Q4-2024 ?

[Saylick]

Oh boy. There's an entire 3 year+ thread on limitations of Nvidia's preferred VRAM quantities.

Classic Nvidia... The Way the Consumer is Meant to Be Played.™

 

[Tigerick]

Here is summary of three Blackwell models based on leaks so far. GDDR7 supposed to be more power efficient than GDDR6X, yet NV is going to increase the TDP of the GPU, thus we should be expecting much higher clock speed than current model..

FYI, I have included the upcoming N48 specs; judging by the amount of CU and associated memory bandwidth, AMD might not need to clock the GPU higher than RTX5070, we shall see...

Model	SM	Clock Speed	TDP	Memory	Memory BW
RTX 4070 S	56	2475 MHz	220 W	12GB GDDR6X 21 Gbps	504.2 GB/s
RTX 5070	50 ?	?	250 W	12GB GDDR7 28 Gbps	672 GB/s
N48	64	?	?	16GB GDDR6 20 Gbps	640 GB/s
RTX 4080 S	80	2550 MHz	320 W	16GB GDDR6X 23 Gbps	736.3 GB/s
RTX 5080	84	?	400 W	16GB GDDR7 32 Gbps	1 TB/s
RTX 4090	128	2520 MHz	450 W	24GB GDDR6X 21 Gbps	1 TB/s
RTX 5090	170	?	600 W	32GB GDDR7 28 Gbps	~ 1.8 TB/s

 

[Golgatha]

And dead on arrival if it is only 12GB.... Current games already use more than that.

It's DOA if it's priced at $700 or more. That's close enough into 4070 Ti Super territory, where there's more raster performance and 16GB of VRAM.

 

[Heartbreaker]

And dead on arrival if it is only 12GB.... Current games already use more than that.

Sure just like 4060 and 4060 Ti were DOA at 8GB... Both of which are now in Steam Survey top 5.

Too many people on this forum, substitute their wishful thinking in place of reality.

 

[MrTeal]

DOA is a strong term since it's going to sell regardless, but a 12GB 5070 at $700+ is going to be pretty poorly received by reviewers and enthusiasts. You can already get a 56 SM 12GB 4070 Super for as low as $570 in the US right now. The 5070 should have much more bandwidth and will be faster than a 4070S, but it's not going to blow the doors off it. Best case the $/perf needle stays steady.
It'd expect it to launch at the same price as the 4070, which will allow Nvidia to market model to model and show a good uplift at the same price. Bonus points if they have Blackwell specific FG 2.0 that gives an extra 50% by inserting two generated frames instead of one.

 

[gdansk]

Sure just like 4060 and 4060 Ti were DOA at 8GB... Both of which are now in Steam Survey top 5.

Too many people on this forum, substitute their wishful thinking in place of reality.

Here I charitably read DOA to mean "Probably shouldn't be bought except by an extremely limited number of users who will accept an experience worse than consoles in many new games despite having paid for an state-of-the-art GPU die that could easily do better"

It could have been something better but because many people will pay $400 for 8GB we'll be stuck on sub-console VRAM for a very long time. But as developers move on these consumers have no one to blame but themselves for enabling Nvidia's market segmentation scheme.

 

[CakeMonster]

I'm very doubtful the 5090 will be 600W, there is simply no need.

 

[jpiniero]

I'm very doubtful the 5090 will be 600W, there is simply no need.

It might be 60-70% faster than the 4090.

 

[igor_kavinski]

I'm very doubtful the 5090 will be 600W, there is simply no need.

There might be if it's hitting pretty high frequencies or there are just too many extra transistors to feed.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Here I charitably read DOA to mean...

So substituting your alternate reality, for his alternate realty...

 

[gdansk]

So substituting your alternate reality, for his alternate realty...

Yes indeed! I'm not inclined to limit myself to the reality where we have $400 8GB GPUs in 2025. But here we have multi-year uncompensated cheerleaders for it because it sells billions. Who are we to call it DOA because it is DOA to most people paying attention.

It *should* be DOA. But smiling coprophagists will keep it alive.

 

[Grooveriding]

So no new cards until mid next year? Not even a big deal really, the 4090 destroys everything. 5090 won’t change much, probably just a few games at 4K that will use the additional power for ray traced games.

I think the best thing will be a card with 4090 performance, for - hopefully, less money. Even that is doubtful with nvidia these days though. I wouldn’t be surprised if nothing much changes price/perf wise.

 

[gdansk]

5090 won’t change much, probably just a few games at 4K that will use the additional power for ray traced games.

Really? The SM count, TDP, bus width, memory increase and memory bandwidth all suggest it will be a pretty huge increase at 4K. Like 50-60% faster than the 4090.

The 5080 should be around 4090, depending on clock rates. But it'll still only have 16GB of VRAM. So it'll be a downgrade and upgrade for slightly less.

 

[igor_kavinski]

It *should* be DOA. But smiling coprophagists will keep it alive.

Dang. Ewww. Dang

 

[dangerman1337]

Considering how this lineup as rumoured I think Nvidia planning a Super refresh for the 5070 & 5080 with 3GB Modules (so 18 & 24GB VRAM respectively) and higher clock speeds against RDNA 5. Hell maybe a 5090 Super with more SMs enabled (say to 180-182) and clocks go up a bit with 48GB VRAM. Like the "400W" and "600W" is probably headroom for Super variants.

 

[CakeMonster]

It might be 60-70% faster than the 4090.

Yeah, if they feel they need to target a full 70% they might need 600W. But since GDDR7 and 80% more memory bandwidth is probably helping a lot with performance already, I suspect the slight node shrink and tweaked architecture will do the rest and give us a comfy 50%+. NVidia simply doesn't need to deliver more now IMO. My opinion is of course not worth much though, but there is PR value in not requiring ridiculous power as well.

 

[CakeMonster]

Considering how this lineup as rumoured I think Nvidia planning a Super refresh for the 5070 & 5080 with 3GB Modules (so 18 & 24GB VRAM respectively) and higher clock speeds against RDNA 5. Hell maybe a 5090 Super with more SMs enabled (say to 180-182) and clocks go up a bit with 48GB VRAM. Like the "400W" and "600W" is probably headroom for Super variants.

18 and 24GB 5070s and 5080s respectively are possible mid generation in 2026. I suspect they will come with a price premium like the 16GB 4060Ti does. When you get that much VRAM, NV wants to get paid handsomely for the fact that you'll likely not upgrade in a long time. It might be a mistake to wait for them unless you're ready to pay a very solid premium.

I don't believe in a 48GB 5090, there will be dedicated AI cards for that market, probably made from the same chip, and those will be priced way above the 5090 price, which already got a 33% increase in VRAM. In the current lack of competition situation, NV will be very careful and not setting themselves up for less sales of the 6000 series because people are content with VRAM.

 

[dangerman1337]

18 and 24GB 5070s and 5080s respectively are possible mid generation in 2026. I suspect they will come with a price premium like the 16GB 4060Ti does. When you get that much VRAM, NV wants to get paid handsomely for the fact that you'll likely not upgrade in a long time. It might be a mistake to wait for them unless you're ready to pay a very solid premium.

I don't believe in a 48GB 5090, there will be dedicated AI cards for that market, probably made from the same chip, and those will be priced way above the 5090 price, which already got a 33% increase in VRAM. In the current lack of competition situation, NV will be very careful and not setting themselves up for less sales of the 6000 series because people are content with VRAM.

There isn't a sign of Quadro Blackwells in the next few months, suspect they are waiting for 3GB Modules sometime in 2025 to whack them on and have them use 96GB of VRAM on both sides of the PCB.

 

[Aapje]

18 and 24GB 5070s and 5080s respectively are possible mid generation in 2026.

I don't see this happening. My expectation is that for a refresh they will only increase the memory for the deficient models, and will keep using 2 GB modules for some cards.

So:
5080 Super 16 GB with 2 GB modules
5070 Super 16 GB with 3 GB
5060 (Ti) Super 12 GB with 3 GB

And then perhaps a 5090 Ti or a Titan with 3 GB modules, while keeping the 5090 the same.

Of course, all of this assumes that the 3 GB modules are available in volume and for a good enough price.

 

[Golgatha]

I don't see this happening. My expectation is that for a refresh they will only increase the memory for the deficient models, and will keep using 2 GB modules for some cards.

So:
5080 Super 16 GB with 2 GB modules
5070 Super 16 GB with 3 GB
5060 (Ti) Super 12 GB with 3 GB

And then perhaps a 5090 Ti or a Titan with 3 GB modules, while keeping the 5090 the same.

Of course, all of this assumes that the 3 GB modules are available in volume and for a good enough price.

Minor typo probably, but the 5070 Super would be 18GB (12GB * 1.5) with 3Gbit VRAM modules.

 

[Golgatha]

I think the mid-generation refresh will be as follows:

5070 Super with 256bit bus and 16GB of VRAM at $999
5080 Super with 320bit bus and 20GB of VRAM at $1,199
5080 Ti with 384bit bus and 24GB of VRAM at $1,499

3Gbit modules will be reserved for nVidia's HPU/AI workstation cards since 3Gbit modules will be in short supply compared to 2Gbit modules.

Basically the value proposition and performance increases will be just like the Super refresh for the 4000 series and there will be no oddly named Ti Super variant. There's no reason for nVidia to give anything away when AMD isn't even trying to compete at the high end.

 

[AdamK47]

I worry about individuals and companies snatching up consumer level boards to be put into AI training farms.

With that and the scalpers it's going to be the 3090 all over again. AI replacing the cryptocurrency mining craze.

 

[gdansk]

I worry about individuals and companies snatching up consumer level boards to be put into AI training farms.

With that and the scalpers it's going to be the 3090 all over again. AI replacing the cryptocurrency mining craze.

You can bet on it. No matter the price of the 5090.

 

[AdamK47]

You can bet on it. No matter the price of the 5090.

If it's anything like the 3090 release then I better get in line at Micro Center at midnight. There were none available at retail after the first day. The only way to get one was though a scalper.

 

[gdansk]

If it's anything like the 3090 release then I better get in line at Micro Center at midnight. There were none available at retail after the first day. The only way to get one was though a scalper.

My solution is to skip the rat race this time.