Originally posted by: nRollo
Originally posted by: bryanW1995
Originally posted by: Cookie Monster
I dont think nVIDIA will ever risk using a newer process for the next gen products. (Ever since the NV30 fiasco i.e the use of 130nm)
I agree. it's possible that nvidia will jump to 55nm at a later date. However, they ARE running into an R600 issue right now. AMD should just make a single core 4880 or 4890 and they'll probably be able to take back the crown with a single core. Sadly, they won't, and we'll all line up like sheep to get our dustbuster with it's great single core performance...
Given the rumours so far, AMD would have to do a total core re-design to beat the GT200.
How is that a "should just make a single core" situation? AMD current gen single core tech is a good ways behind NVIDIA now, and IMHO it will be when these cards launch as well.
That said, I think the 4870 will be what the 2900XT should have been, and that it will offer an interesting alternative at it's price point.
I don't think the 4879X2 will be more than a hobbyist (or AMD fan) product- something to sell guys like me who don't necessarily care about "bang for buck" always.
That's how I see it unfolding anyway.
BTW-the high end G8/G9 series haven't been "dustbusters", nowhere near the R600, I don't see why they'd do that now.
What rumors are you seeing?
Right now, it seems that GT200 is either a large single die or two small 55nm chips based on G92 with high clockspeeds (perhaps w/ slightly more SP or some optimization, maybe higher memory bus/ROP).
Single die GT200 is probably 192 SP / 96 TMU / 32 ROP with a higher clock than what is seen w/ G92. Combined with a 512-bit bus and 1GB of memory, that could be 2x 8800 Ultra. I could see die size being in the range of 450-470mm^2 @ 65nm. It also seems possible that it is 240 SP / ?? TMU / 32 ROP, as is rumored; that would result in a bigger die but likely acheive similar performance with lower clocks.
Dual die GT200 could be many things; with 55nm clocks could go up with the same TDP and nVidia could likely fit a 160SP chip in the same size/TDP as G92. If GT200 was 2x"G92b" w/ 160SP + slightly higher clocks, it would probably be in the range of ~40% faster than current 9800GX2, putting it pretty much in line with the single die GT200 I talked about above.
Let's compare that to what AMD is doing with R700. Given the rumored specs, RV770 will be 2x RV670 in performance. When talking about dual-chip R700, remember that additional factors come into play; memory is supposedly shared by the two GPU cores rather than each having its own memory. It's also possible that the GPU cores are more closely linked than they currently are; perhaps scaling will no longer depend as much on Crossfire.
Look at 9800GX2 vs HD 3870 X2 right now (Anandtech review). In Crysis, the 9800GX2 is approximately 30% faster @ 1920x1200. In Oblivion @ 2560x1600, the 9800GX2 is 17% faster and 15% faster w/ AA applied. In STALKER, Crossfire scaling is very bad and the 9800GX2 is 100% faster. World in Conflict, the GX2 is 33% faster.
If you ignore outliers where Crossfire doesn't work well (ET:QW is one too, but I believe that has been fixed since the 8.3 drivers Anandtech used) the 9800GX2 is on average ~30% faster than the HD 3870 X2. So if we take a hypothetical HD 4870 X2 with double performance, it would be ~53% faster than the 9800GX2 on average (extremely rough comparison of course.) Comparing that to what we see when looking at nVidia's next generation, it seems that the 4870 X2 would be as fast or perhaps faster than GT200. Assuming GT200 is single chip (which it seems like it will be), it will be quite a challenge for nVidia to get 50% better performance than 2x 324mm^2 chips with a single die on the same process.
If GT200 is great, then I may pick up the cheaper variant (assuming there is a GTX & GTS model at launch). Either that or I will buy an HD 4870. I'm a bit worried about power consumption though, because I have an HX520 and Phenoms suck a heck of a lot of power.