Nvidia Kepler Yields Lower Than Expected –CEO. Fermi 2.0?

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bryanW1995

Lifer
May 22, 2007
11,144
32
91
Wow spin city is working hard tonight.

Why did you bother to post this? Especially light of IDC's extremely useful/informative post, I don't see this as necesarily bad for NV. In fact, if ICD is right + NV get's us good kepler cards by april, we should see some decent competition again quite soon. Remember, gtx 480 wasn't necessarily bad b/c of the performance (and it has obviously aged very well to boot), it got most of its bad press b/c of the terribad power draw. If kepler is only 3 months behind AMD (instead of 6+) and it has the power draw under control, they could get away with a performance tie. And if it's faster than 7970, that would be a clear win for NV, as I don't see AMD refreshing 7970 after only 3 months.
 

tviceman

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2008
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Why did you bother to post this? Especially light of IDC's extremely useful/informative post, I don't see this as necesarily bad for NV. In fact, if ICD is right + NV get's us good kepler cards by april, we should see some decent competition again quite soon. Remember, gtx 480 wasn't necessarily bad b/c of the performance (and it has obviously aged very well to boot), it got most of its bad press b/c of the terribad power draw. If kepler is only 3 months behind AMD (instead of 6+) and it has the power draw under control, they could get away with a performance tie. And if it's faster than 7970, that would be a clear win for NV, as I don't see AMD refreshing 7970 after only 3 months.

I posted it because the thread title was spinning what JHH said into Kepler having Fermi like complications.
 

ShadowOfMyself

Diamond Member
Jun 22, 2006
4,230
2
0
Huh... Right

How much of an idiot do you have to be to WANT Kepler to be late? Even if you only buy AMD cards, AMD wont be lowering prices until they have competition, so Kepler arriving asap is a win situation for EVERYONE

I dont believe we have that kind of extreme AMD fanboy around here... Nvidia on the other hand...
 

Cookie Monster

Diamond Member
May 7, 2005
5,161
32
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Its not clear of which 28nm process AMD is using let alone nVIDIA? I remember reading somewhere about IHVs resorting into using 28LP process due to TSMC having trouble with the 28HP process. The latter is the one to use the highK metal gate technology and according to TSMC, it offers 45% speed improvement over 40nm at the same leakage per gate (20% for 28LP).

It could potentially be the reason why Tahiti is out to the market faster than anyone else using 28nm tech.
 

Arzachel

Senior member
Apr 7, 2011
903
76
91
I posted it because the thread title was spinning what JHH said into Kepler having Fermi like complications.

...Except that Kepler is actually having "Fermi-like complications". It's just that the magnitude has been greatly exaggerated.
 

bryanW1995

Lifer
May 22, 2007
11,144
32
91
wahdangun said:
do you know about basic economi right ?

there are no competition, so its stupid if AMD release it like HD 5XXXX series. to be honest i like this new AMD CEO, he can prove to their shareholder that AMD can be aggressive too. and just with this move AMD share is increase more than 50%. so although its not good for consumer, its definitely good for AMD. and maybe if they gather enough profit, they can competitive again in CPU business.

if you want to blame, blame nvdia because they late again.

Coming from a stockholder, that sentence makes perfect sense. Coming from a consumer
That sentence is taboo. Which are you? If you're a stockholder, you make sense. If not, you'll get looked at cross-eyed.

I used to get really pissed at Hector Ruiz b/c intel cpus were so expensive, were locking out features, were introducing artificial market segmentation to freeze out the enthusiast overclocking crowd, etc etc etc. Why? Because AMD cpus weren't competitive-enough to keep intel on their toes. And right now, we need a competitive lineup from Nvidia to keep AMD on their toes because Read isn't as stupid as the past few CEO's that AMD has had (sorry Dirk). Read has unequivocally stated that he wants to be the best, and that generally is code for "we're going to gouge the crap out of our loyal customers whenever/wherever possible". I don't blame him for it, that's just good business sense, and anyway I'm extremely happy with my gtx 480. But I'd be frustrated right now if I WAS in the market b/c it's looking like high prices are on the gpu menu for 2012. Hopefully by the time I'm back in the market prices will have settled down again.
 

bryanW1995

Lifer
May 22, 2007
11,144
32
91
I read the transcript (not sure if it is the full call however) but have not listed to it. Link?

Lower yields are fine, that just means less Kepler chips. Right now there are zero that I can buy.

I own both AMD and Nvidia stock, have held NVDA for a really long time, I think about 12 years. So I'm both, and I can say for certain that what some may think affects the stock price, things like poor yields, late to market etc. rarely have a short term affect on price. I'm not going to get into what the trends are and how I know when to buy/sell, but it has almost nothing to do with the types of issues we discuss here. In fact many times issues that you are sure will drive the stock down end up doing the opposite.

Do you have a link to the % of Nvidia's stock price based upon their different markets/operations? I know that professional graphics was about twice as important as consumer, and I know that their cash position was extremely important as well, but I can't seem to track down the latest breakdown.
 

tviceman

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2008
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...Except that Kepler is actually having "Fermi-like complications". It's just that the magnitude has been greatly exaggerated.

You apparently didn't read IDC's' post on the first page. I assume that you also did not pay attention to all of the articles building up to Fermi's release as well as articles about Kepler while we build up to it's release. Because if you had read IDC's post, or if you had paid attention to pre-Fermi talk as well as pre-Kepler talk, no one could know that Kepler is having "Fermi-like complications" based on the available information. But if you had read IDC's article or you did pay attention to both product's launch information, then, well, I don't know what to tell you other than OK.
 

bryanW1995

Lifer
May 22, 2007
11,144
32
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@Keysplayer

The cheapest GTX480 on newegg...
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16814162073

The cheapest 7950, which kicks Nvidia in the groin...
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produ...1&name=Radeon HD 7950&Order=PRICE&Pagesize=20

psst... AMD/ ATI is selling chips performing better than Nvidia's flagship, at a lower price!

7970 are about ($70) more expensive, but they're easily overclocking 200 Mhz over stock and getting another 25-30% jump in performance.

So really, who's shafting who?

p.p.s: you should take a couple of minutes to do your homework!

EDIT: personally, i'd have liked a lower price, since i was to build a new pc... but then, nvidia with lower performance costs the same. Why should AMD take a hit to their bottomline?

gtx 580 is ~ $35 cheaper than the 7950. That seems to be a fair amount, 7950 is slightly faster and it is slightly more expensive.

<snip>

When yields are poor and things are not going well on a new process for nvidia, it means we wait to see the product on the shelves and possibly deal with a space heater. GTX 480/470 - Fermi is a shining example of that.

<snip>

That is ONE example. I'm hard-pressed to find another recent example of that from either camp, and we all know that at least some of the 40nm issues were TSMC's fault rather than Nvidia's. In fact, the last space-heater we had was 2900xt. At least GTX 480 was slightly faster than its competition at launch, and has gotten better over time. 2900xt was quickly replaced by something much smaller/faster/less power-hungry for a reason; gtx 480, otoh, benefitted enormously from iterative improvements, kept the single gpu performance crown intact for NV for many years, and even ended with a pretty decent reputation for power/heat/noise by the time it was re-spun as gtx 580.

edit: You of all people should know how excellent gtx 480 has ended up. In fact, it's crappy reputation helped us to grab good deals on them after release.
 
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MrK6

Diamond Member
Aug 9, 2004
4,458
4
81
I used to get really pissed at Hector Ruiz b/c intel cpus were so expensive, were locking out features, were introducing artificial market segmentation to freeze out the enthusiast overclocking crowd, etc etc etc. Why? Because AMD cpus weren't competitive-enough to keep intel on their toes. And right now, we need a competitive lineup from Nvidia to keep AMD on their toes because Read isn't as stupid as the past few CEO's that AMD has had (sorry Dirk). Read has unequivocally stated that he wants to be the best, and that generally is code for "we're going to gouge the crap out of our loyal customers whenever/wherever possible". I don't blame him for it, that's just good business sense, and anyway I'm extremely happy with my gtx 480. But I'd be frustrated right now if I WAS in the market b/c it's looking like high prices are on the gpu menu for 2012. Hopefully by the time I'm back in the market prices will have settled down again.
As has been stated, you won't see that much competition with production at TSMC as slow as it is. You need volume to have a price war. Also, there's no way to argue that the 79xx cards aren't a value, which is exception because they are flagship GPUs. Coming from someone with a GTX 480, which was about one of the worst value cards in generations, that's ironic.
 

AnandThenMan

Diamond Member
Nov 11, 2004
3,949
504
126
Do you have a link to the % of Nvidia's stock price based upon their different markets/operations? I know that professional graphics was about twice as important as consumer, and I know that their cash position was extremely important as well, but I can't seem to track down the latest breakdown.
Not 100% sure what you're asking but I think I know. I'll post such info if I find it.
 

Grooveriding

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2008
9,108
1,260
126
gtx 580 is ~ $35 cheaper than the 7950. That seems to be a fair amount, 7950 is slightly faster and it is slightly more expensive.



That is ONE example. I'm hard-pressed to find another recent example of that from either camp, and we all know that at least some of the 40nm issues were TSMC's fault rather than Nvidia's. In fact, the last space-heater we had was 2900xt. At least GTX 480 was slightly faster than its competition at launch, and has gotten better over time. 2900xt was quickly replaced by something much smaller/faster/less power-hungry for a reason; gtx 480, otoh, benefitted enormously from iterative improvements, kept the single gpu performance crown intact for NV for many years, and even ended with a pretty decent reputation for power/heat/noise by the time it was re-spun as gtx 580.

edit: You of all people should know how excellent gtx 480 has ended up. In fact, it's crappy reputation helped us to grab good deals on them after release.

No doubt it has held up well, to the point with the current games on the market I am only after a marginal 20-30% increase in performance over what I have from 3 480s, but want it from 2 cards instead of 3. Pretty decent considering the resolution I play at. I bought into the 480s for the 1.5GB VRAM and SLI scaling was better than it was on the 5XXX series.

What I do see is a new pattern now of nvidia's big die strategy causing them problems in transitioning to new nodes, or perhaps it is attributable to the people who work there that are responsible for making this all happen. First we saw it on 40nm, now we're on 28nm and they're delayed again.

I'm not interested in how it affects them as a company, but for gamers and enthusiasts it's a letdown having to wait on their offerings. On 40nm you didn't hear as much crying over it because AMD was selling their 5870/5850 so cheap relative to the performance and there was a good option. This time round everyone is worked up because AMD is charging a price more in line with what we're used to for halo GPUs and there is this wild hope nvidia is going to undercut them

If the rumour is true that nvidia is first releasing a card with a chip that has a die size similar to Tahiti, I doubt we'll see another space heater, but I'll bet the big chip rumoured to release late this year could be a roaster

AMD has been showing a better ability to handle these new nodes than nvidia did, they did just fine with 40nm whereas nvidia didn't. Now on 28nm again they have parts out and nvidia doesn't, so I'd put the problem in nvidia's hands, not the foundry making the parts. If the first card nvidia releases on 28nm is about the same die size as Tahiti, I think that would give even more foundation to them having trouble with new nodes compared to AMD.
 

Stuka87

Diamond Member
Dec 10, 2010
6,240
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gtx 580 is ~ $35 cheaper than the 7950. That seems to be a fair amount, 7950 is slightly faster and it is slightly more expensive.

Link?

NewEgg has the cheapest GTX580 listed at $465, and thats for a gigantic (3 slot) Galaxy card. There are very few below $499.

I paid $479 for my 7950. And its an OC version, not the cheaper $450 reference card.
 

Nintendesert

Diamond Member
Mar 28, 2010
7,761
5
0
I pulled two things from that article:

1. Kepler is in production.
2. Yields/Problems aren't as bad as Fermi.

Did I read that wrong? It's at least solid information for a change and not all that bad.
 

LOL_Wut_Axel

Diamond Member
Mar 26, 2011
4,310
8
81
I pulled two things from that article:

1. Kepler is in production.
2. Yields/Problems aren't as bad as Fermi.

Did I read that wrong? It's at least solid information for a change and not all that bad.

As in, GK104. GK110 isn't in production.
 

Keysplayr

Elite Member
Jan 16, 2003
21,209
50
91
I only read "Kepler" and no difference between how are we sure none of the bigger parts are in production?

"GK110 isn't in production."

This stuff is continually getting blurted out as if known as a fact. It's becoming downright annoying.

How does he know? Right?
 

LOL_Wut_Axel

Diamond Member
Mar 26, 2011
4,310
8
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"GK110 isn't in production."

This stuff is continually getting blurted out as if known as a fact. It's becoming downright annoying.

How does he know? Right?

Because it IS a fact. Of course, you don't want to admit it because you're an "NVIDIA Focus Group Member." If I'm honest, I can't take anything you say regarding graphics cards seriously because of it.

And anyway, even though GK110 won't be here soon, GK104 will probably still be able to compete with Tahiti and Pitcairn, so y u mad?
 

tviceman

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2008
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"GK110 isn't in production."

This stuff is continually getting blurted out as if known as a fact. It's becoming downright annoying.

How does he know? Right?

He was doing the exact same thing with the pre-released rumors of Tahiti specs. He kept repeating that the specs were final and were accurate.... turns out he was wrong there.
 

Vesku

Diamond Member
Aug 25, 2005
3,743
28
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Seems like sometime in April, usually it's 6-8 weeks from full production start to retail. Going to be disappointed if it slips all the way into May-June. Also, GTX 580 is still not budging (who is buying them? -_- ). The 3GB 580s are on par $-wise with 7970 3GB, MADNESS.
 
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tviceman

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2008
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Seems like sometime in April, usually it's 6-8 weeks from full production start to retail. Going to be disappointed if it slips all the way into May-June. Also, GTX 580 is still not budging (who is buying them? -_- ). The 3GB 580s are on par $-wise with 7970 3GB, MADNESS.

Yeah I was hoping for an early march launch, but that's just not going to happen now. I hope the extra time it takes to get Kepler out is worth it all in the end for people like me who want to upgrade this summer.
 

Arzachel

Senior member
Apr 7, 2011
903
76
91
You apparently didn't read IDC's' post on the first page. I assume that you also did not pay attention to all of the articles building up to Fermi's release as well as articles about Kepler while we build up to it's release. Because if you had read IDC's post, or if you had paid attention to pre-Fermi talk as well as pre-Kepler talk, no one could know that Kepler is having "Fermi-like complications" based on the available information. But if you had read IDC's article or you did pay attention to both product's launch information, then, well, I don't know what to tell you other than OK.

"Fermi-like complications" are parts not yielding as well as expected. Now read the thread title. "Fermi 2.0?" is the exaggerated part.

Cookie Monster said:
Dont reviewers usually get cards about 1~2 weeks from launch?

They usually get NDA'd well before that iirc.
 
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