Nvidia Kepler Yields Lower Than Expected –CEO. Fermi 2.0?

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Keysplayr

Elite Member
Jan 16, 2003
21,209
50
91
How many people here believe that Kepler was supposed to launch with Tahiti on January 9th 2012? Raise your hands. Because all this talk of Kepler being late is kind of BS. Kepler is on it's OWN schedule and has NOTHING to do with AMD's schedule. I hope this is realized sooner than never. There are no official launch dates and never were in the past to give anyone the notion that Kepler is late. So stop acting like it is. Kepler gets here when it is good and ready. That is all. hehe.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
136
I read it as Kepler is ramping hard.

Would like to see yields improve -- offered guidance for a drop in margins to around 49.2 and through the year back to around 52.

Would like to see more wafers.

The problem with that is that all we know is that there is at least one Kepler part in production and that NV needs more wafers to build up supply for launch. We have NO idea what that part is. Everything else is a rumor.
 

SirPauly

Diamond Member
Apr 28, 2009
5,187
1
0
Considering there was official PR discussion of a 2011 release and slide, with the logic because Fermi was delayed, really may not effect the next generation, one can make the points that nVidia was aiming for a late 2011 release at some point.
 

SirPauly

Diamond Member
Apr 28, 2009
5,187
1
0
The problem with that is that all we know is that there is at least one Kepler part in production and that NV needs more wafers to build up supply for launch. We have NO idea what that part is. Everything else is a rumor.

Fair view and believe many are craving for more Kepler data.
 
May 13, 2009
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How many people here believe that Kepler was supposed to launch with Tahiti on January 9th 2012? Raise your hands. Because all this talk of Kepler being late is kind of BS. Kepler is on it's OWN schedule and has NOTHING to do with AMD's schedule. I hope this is realized sooner than never. There are no official launch dates and never were in the past to give anyone the notion that Kepler is late. So stop acting like it is. Kepler gets here when it is good and ready. That is all. hehe.

It's inexcusable regardless. How is a smaller team with less $$ to work (AMD) beating the mighty Nvidia to the punch? Not just this round but 5XXX series to. It's inexcusable IMO. I'm being as patient as I can but now it's April and not March. I don't appreciate the dead silence either. If AMD didn't price tahiti so high I might have one.

IMO if the nvidia engineers or developers or whoever can't get the job done then it's time to get someone that can. I know this crap wouldn't cut it at any other job so why should it be tolerated in this case?
 

Grooveriding

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2008
9,108
1,260
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The problem with that is that all we know is that there is at least one Kepler part in production and that NV needs more wafers to build up supply for launch. We have NO idea what that part is. Everything else is a rumor.

Basically that. It is vague language to avoid givng specifics.

I read it as yields are so poor per wafer that only 20% of the chips per wafer are viable, so they need more wafers to even get close to having enough good chips to field a release. Also, these are only the low end laptop/mobile chips, desktop discreet chips are not even being mass produced yet. (all comments just to illustrate how really nothing tangible was said as you could spin it any way you like)

All we know for certain is nothing is ready or imminent to a release and yet again nvidia is late to the party on a new node.

I sure hope it is not true about just a mid range card being released and the high end being late this year. I cannot get excited over a mid range card, where's the beef ?!?!!
 

Keysplayr

Elite Member
Jan 16, 2003
21,209
50
91
It's inexcusable regardless. How is a smaller team with less $$ to work (AMD) beating the mighty Nvidia to the punch? Not just this round but 5XXX series to. It's inexcusable IMO. I'm being as patient as I can but now it's April and not March. I don't appreciate the dead silence either. If AMD didn't price tahiti so high I might have one.

IMO if the nvidia engineers or developers or whoever can't get the job done then it's time to get someone that can. I know this crap wouldn't cut it at any other job so why should it be tolerated in this case?

That is a severely misguided outlook. "It's inexcusable" ?? What is the "It's" ?. A lot of people will have us believe that Kepler is late because Tahiti launched already. That isn't the case at all. Nvidia is beating to it's own drum as I have said before. It was also rumored (no idea if it's true or not) that Tahiti was brutally rushed to market by AMD. I don't know if people can attest or are willing to attest to that and quality of launch drivers or lack thereof? I have no idea so I'll leave it to others to confirm or debunk on their own accord. As far as Kepler's tardiness? That is a fabrication.
 

SirPauly

Diamond Member
Apr 28, 2009
5,187
1
0
IMO if the nvidia engineers or developers or whoever can't get the job done then it's time to get someone that can. I know this crap wouldn't cut it at any other job so why should it be tolerated in this case?


It may depend on how unimpressive or impressive the arch may be.
 

Keysplayr

Elite Member
Jan 16, 2003
21,209
50
91
Considering there was official PR discussion of a 2011 release and slide, with the logic because Fermi was delayed, really may not effect the next generation, one can make the points that nVidia was aiming for a late 2011 release at some point.

One could try to make any case they want. Doesn't mean they'll form one.
There were no launch dates then and even now all we have are unconfirmed rumors of March/April all the way to Q4 2012. So, what is it going to be? A whole lot of FUD until we have an actual word from Nvidia for their launch date or ETA at least.
 

SirPauly

Diamond Member
Apr 28, 2009
5,187
1
0
Basically that. It is vague language to avoid givng specifics.

I read it as yields are so poor per wafer that only 20% of the chips per wafer are viable, so they need more wafers to even get close to having enough good chips to field a release. Also, these are only the low end laptop/mobile chips, desktop discreet chips are not even being mass produced yet. (all comments just to illustrate how really nothing tangible was said as you could spin it any way you like)

All we know for certain is nothing is ready or imminent to a release and yet again nvidia is late to the party on a new node.

I sure hope it is not true about just a mid range card being released and the high end being late this year. I cannot get excited over a mid range card, where's the beef ?!?!!

You did receive all that from nVidia stating lower than expectations? Amazing abilities.
 

Lonyo

Lifer
Aug 10, 2002
21,939
6
81
How many people here believe that Kepler was supposed to launch with Tahiti on January 9th 2012? Raise your hands. Because all this talk of Kepler being late is kind of BS. Kepler is on it's OWN schedule and has NOTHING to do with AMD's schedule. I hope this is realized sooner than never. There are no official launch dates and never were in the past to give anyone the notion that Kepler is late. So stop acting like it is. Kepler gets here when it is good and ready. That is all. hehe.

http://www.anandtech.com/show/2977/...-gtx-470-6-months-late-was-it-worth-the-wait-

Fermi/GF100/GTX400 has been a long time coming. For an industry where the major players are usually in lockstep with each other in some fashion, this latest cycle has been distinctly out of sync. In September of 2009 we saw AMD launch their Radeon 5000 series, and spend the next 6 months as the performance leader for the discrete graphics market for virtually every price point. NVIDIA on the other hand missed the latest cycle by a mile, and when AMD was delivering 5000 series cards NVIDIA could only talk about the High Performance Computing applications of their next GPU, Fermi.

This is why people say "late".
GTX580? November. HD6900? December.
GTX200? June. HD4800? June
8800? November. HD2900? LATE.
While AMD will tell us that R600 is not late and hasn't been delayed, this is simply because they never actually set a public date from which to be delayed. We all know that AMD would rather have seen their hardware hit the streets at or around the time Vista launched, or better yet, alongside G80. But the fact is that AMD had quite a few problems in getting R600 out the door.
http://www.anandtech.com/show/1810
7800? June. X1800? October - late. Refreshed quickly because it was late (and mediocre at best). http://www.anandtech.com/show/1810

The HD2900 quote is basically what you are saying.
"It's not late, because we never gave a timescale for launching".
It's late because/when the market says so. It's not absolutely late just yet, a couple of months is a reasonable delay, but when you get 3~4 months it starts becoming properly late, and 6 months is unquestionably late. Even if it's on schedule, it's still late to the market, and one would assume that NV are working to the process cycle, which dictates the market cycle, which means they are late. It may be that they are late because they expected to be late, but it's still late if it doesn't release very soon.
 

SirPauly

Diamond Member
Apr 28, 2009
5,187
1
0
One could try to make any case they want. Doesn't mean they'll form one.
There were no launch dates then and even now all we have are unconfirmed rumors of March/April all the way to Q4 2012. So, what is it going to be? A whole lot of FUD until we have an actual word from Nvidia for their launch date or ETA at least.

Imho,

It's really irrelevant making a case though because nVidia decides based on what they feel is good for nVidia and their prospective customers.
 

Grooveriding

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2008
9,108
1,260
126
At least nvidia is playing it smart this time and not talking a big game like they were when they were late in 40nm. That lost them a lot of face and caused much embarassment among the enthusiast community; see JHH with wood screws, announcements of announcements of announcements and GTX480 being 15% faster than 5870 and six months late with heat pipes out the top of the shroud.

This time with them being late again on a new node they have learned from that and are sticking to the put up or shut up mantra. They cannot put up so they are shutting up, saves them face and it does not come off nearly as badly as the big talk over Fermi did.

 
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notty22

Diamond Member
Jan 1, 2010
3,375
0
0
Nvidia has to make a compelling product that is better than Fermi that is productively being used in workstation and super computers. They announced almost 3 months before Christmas, they were not going to launch in 2011. While AMD/ Charlie at SA started talking of launching back in September. AMD also missed Christmas and might be part of the reasons behind the exodus over there ?

If you have been paying attention, Tahiti is fairly powerful but when you start going outside mainstream dx11 titles, there are a lot of driver bugs still.
Where is AMD's mid range, if Nvidia is so inexcusably late ?

Put on the Daytona 500 practice, that's what I'm doing today. Already washed the car !
 

SirPauly

Diamond Member
Apr 28, 2009
5,187
1
0
That lost them a lot of face and caused much embarassment among the enthusiast community; see JHH with wood screws, announcements of announcements of announcements and GTX480 being 15% faster than 5870 and six months late with heat pipes out the top of the shroud.

Did it? The Fermi experience, while challenging, did bring in impressive revenue, profits, margins and share, specifically when the arch matured.

Imho,

When nVidia has serious challenges like the GeForce 5800 or with the obstacles that effected the Fermi release -- nVidia is usually vocal about how great this architecture is and worth the wait.

nVidia is still eerily quiet and virtually nothing from them on the specifics of Kepler -- really tough to gauge them.
 

LOL_Wut_Axel

Diamond Member
Mar 26, 2011
4,310
8
81
"if" and "I think" are speculative descriptors. You can't play any games at all because your game ended with this, "Because it IS a fact."

And it wasn't. It's not that you don't understand, it's that you refuse to let others know you understand. I get it.

No, you don't get it. I understand that you love everything NVIDIA, but unfortunately GK110 will not be released in April. Get over it already and stop with the nonsense denial.
 

Grooveriding

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2008
9,108
1,260
126
Did it? The Fermi experience, while challenging, did bring in impressive revenue, profits, margins and share, specifically when the arch matured.

Imho,

When nVidia has serious challenges like the GeForce 5800 or with the obstacles that effected the Fermi release -- nVidia is usually vocal about how great this architecture is and worth the wait.

nVidia is still eerily quiet and virtually nothing from them on the specifics of Kepler -- really tough to gauge them.

Overall with the only available data specific to gaming enthusiats and DX11 discreet cards, AMD has the majority of that segment and the best selling DX11 card.

Your suspicions based on how vocal they are amount to voodoo magic and just fall in line with you always wanting everything to be put as positive for nvidia, so no surprise there.

No one knows how their cards are going to perform, there is no data, all that is available is that there are no cards. But at least there are no CEOs with wood screws in the hand and BS in the mouth.
 

LOL_Wut_Axel

Diamond Member
Mar 26, 2011
4,310
8
81
That is a severely misguided outlook. "It's inexcusable" ?? What is the "It's" ?. A lot of people will have us believe that Kepler is late because Tahiti launched already. That isn't the case at all. Nvidia is beating to it's own drum as I have said before. It was also rumored (no idea if it's true or not) that Tahiti was brutally rushed to market by AMD. I don't know if people can attest or are willing to attest to that and quality of launch drivers or lack thereof? I have no idea so I'll leave it to others to confirm or debunk on their own accord. As far as Kepler's tardiness? That is a fabrication.

It doesn't matter if there's not a set launch date. They're late because the competition already have their products out.

If you launch months later after your competition that's being late, period.

Hopefully, since GK104 probably will be released in April, we can say "somewhat late" but still not have the same situation as Cypress and GF100.
 

Keysplayr

Elite Member
Jan 16, 2003
21,209
50
91
No, you don't get it. I understand that you love everything NVIDIA, but unfortunately GK110 will not be released in April. Get over it already and stop with the nonsense denial.

Excuse me. The rest of us have kinda moved on. Would you care to join us?
 

LOL_Wut_Axel

Diamond Member
Mar 26, 2011
4,310
8
81
Excuse me. The rest of us have kinda moved on. Would you care to join us?

Yet you still cared to respond, and after my comment yesterday you wrote around four more comments with more nonsense ad nauseam.

I'm sorry GK110 won't be here soon. Must be tough not getting, or not being able to look forward to, a high-end gift from NVIDIA for over 6 months.
 

SirPauly

Diamond Member
Apr 28, 2009
5,187
1
0
Overall with the only available data specific to gaming enthusiats and DX11 discreet cards, AMD has the majority of that segment and the best selling DX11 card.

Your suspicions based on how vocal they are amount to voodoo magic and just fall in line with you always wanting everything to be put as positive for nvidia, so no surprise there.

No one knows how their cards are going to perform, there is no data, all that is available is that there are no cards. But at least there are no CEOs with wood screws in the hand and BS in the mouth.

The point was the world you see as nVidia embarrassment is more in your mind than actual reality, imho! I know my views are irrelevant.
 

bryanW1995

Lifer
May 22, 2007
11,144
32
91
I don't even know what this is supposed to mean.

Give me a break, unless you blatantly lie through your teeth and it's proven that you lie, nothing happens. I have heard so many suspect statements on the record over the years it's not even funny. Every company does it.

It's actually very important that if they ARE trying to be sneaky/deceitful/etc that they put out statements that are quite ambiguous and open to interpretation. If they say "We expect to be shipping for revenue in Q3" that could mean that they calculate a 50.1% chance that they will send at least one unit to somebody somewhere and get paid for it in that period, but they really do expect that to come to pass. Not only can they get in trouble with the SEC or other regulatory agencies (unlikely as noted), but, much much more importantly, they can lose the trust of investors and analysts if they consistently make false/misleading statements.
 

Grooveriding

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2008
9,108
1,260
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The point was the world you see as nVidia embarrassment is more in your mind than actual reality, imho! I know my views are irrelevant.

Yes, in your opinion. If you look amongst forum communities focused on hardware or other enthusiasts you very much see the mark left of the Fermi launch.

I still see wood screw, space heater, late etc. comments and jokes in many online communities. I assume you give them a pass on all that and do not see it as a negative, not everyone does though. It doesn't mean there is some sort of across the board embarrassment for them, but a moment of loss of face and negative in the history. Don't worry, share prices and margins have endured.

I think they're are doing the right thing by staying quiet this time when they have no product ready. Being loud and proud last time didn't work, better to keep quiet until they catch up and not build up unreasonable hype just to let some people with wild expectations down again.
 

bryanW1995

Lifer
May 22, 2007
11,144
32
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50% of your posts don't even make sense. And another 25% amount to reiterating word smithing used by some CEO.

Which one the above is, I can't even tell...

That would be your problem -- if you actually read more instead of ignoring so much -- would help



I know using exact quotes and data from the companies surly doesn't make much sense compared to rumor mongering, unnamed sources, conjecture, speculation and Internet Lore.

Funny how you tend to see it. The majority of your posts leave the impression that you are to nvidia as Fox News was to the most recently departed US administration; an echo chamber without any sort of personal assessment, just straight assimilation and echo.

You charged right into this thread and started playing damage control when no one was taking a strip off nvidia, just talking about this article. You'd do well to assess why you feel so compelled to downplay or put positive anything in these forums that comes across as even mildly negative towards nvidia.

It's quite amusing.


Great, we get it, you two don't like each other.

Please take your personal love-fest to pm's.
 

bryanW1995

Lifer
May 22, 2007
11,144
32
91
Or perhaps AMD, too, is suffering with poor yields but decided not to talk about it in public. They don't need any more bad news. The 'uncompetitive' pricing of latest generation AMD GPUs tells its own story. People get so carried away with the usual AMD versus nvidia BS that they don't stop to think for one moment that the real issue is with TSMC.

Makes you appreciate what Intel has achieved in the past few years. A flawless shrink to a full node every two years. All this, while leading the charge to smaller processes well ahead of others. Incredible. Either TSMC are incompetent and suck more than we ever realized, or Intel's foundry engineers and scientists are aliens.

How is AMD's current 79x0 pricing "uncompetitive"? Aren't they priced very much in line with the card's performance increase over gtx 580 1.5 gb? If you're comparing AMD's current pricing with its pricing in the past few releases then yes, it is much higher than we typically see from one of their launches. But couldn't that just be because (unfortunately to us) they finally have somebody at the helm who realizes that you don't "make it up in volume"?

And I don't think that intel has aliens on their side, though I wouldn't be surprised to hear it, either.

Maybe AMD and nVidia define yields and good quantities differently for their 28nm products.

Maybe nVidia desires to bring more performance/value to the consumer.

HUH? Maybe purple aliens will suddenly drop out of the sky and offer us tea and truffles this afternoon as well, but I don't think that will happen, either. Your first sentence is entirely possible, I'd even say that it's likely, but then you ruined it with the 2nd one. Nvidia consistently uses larger dies on their gpus, so isn't it more likely that, like last time, they're just having to work out some issues with their current dies? Did you even read IDC's posts on pgs 1-2 in this thread?
 
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