Nvidia Kepler Yields Lower Than Expected –CEO. Fermi 2.0?

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SirPauly

Diamond Member
Apr 28, 2009
5,187
1
0
The lower than expected yields are going to effect margins and nVidia is offering a gauge on what to expect --- drops to around 49.2 percent. And as yields improve through the year back to around 52 percent.
 

Arzachel

Senior member
Apr 7, 2011
903
76
91


Never thought the day would come where I'd hear someone say this.

A product that's overpriced is better than no product at all I guess. Not meant to be a dig at Nvidia, I'd love to see some competition, but I'd be nice if they would hurry up.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,787
4,771
136


Never thought the day would come where I'd hear someone say this.
Don't you know you can always find someone to say what a person or group wants. There will always be an individual or a group to maintain an idiotic position.

Not meaning the quote on higher prices, but positions in general. Just check out political statements.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
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@MrK6

I think someone already posted this: http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4234961/TSMC-manufacturing-process-in-trouble

It sure would be problematic if the tools are in such a state of flux during chip design. That said, it does seem as though AMD has a better way of dealing with this. The cross-pollination between the CPU & GPU teams could be paying off here, but I understand that this has been a strength of ATI for some time.

I wonder why some large semiconductor designer hasn't jumped to Intel for fabrication because of the problems @ 28nm (for their next node jump). I imagine it's an issue of relationships and availability of desired node size/performance characteristics. If there is a different reason, I'd love to know what it is.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
136
Tegra 3 is a quadcore ARM CPU with a die size of 80mm squared. For comparison purposes, the ipad 2's cpu, A5, is a dual core CPU with a die size of 120mm squared. Nvidia manufactured Tegra3 on 40nm instead of 28 because 1) it was a known quantity and 2) it allowed them to be the first company in the world with a quad core ARM cpu.

Well, I guess the caveat "don't believe everything you read" certainly applies here. Thanks for the info!
 

lifeblood

Senior member
Oct 17, 2001
999
88
91
AMD CEO never said yields were good, he said the yields were exactly as expected. JHH said they were less than expected. I wonder if both are getting the same yield rate, yet AMD correctly calculated it and based their products on that while NV (once again) did poor headwork and now their plans are foiled.
 

AnandThenMan

Diamond Member
Nov 11, 2004
3,949
504
126
Well the bottom line is Nvidia is talking about worse than expected yields, AMD is shipping product. The yields are obviously not bad enough to prevent AMD from shipping 2 (soon to be 3) different cards in the space of a couple of months. The optics just come across as not so good for Nvidia, it makes it sound like Nvidia is blaming TSMC for lack of Kepler products, whether that is the case or not the inference is quite easy to draw.
 

sontin

Diamond Member
Sep 12, 2011
3,273
149
106
Well the bottom line is Nvidia is talking about worse than expected yields, AMD is shipping product. The yields are obviously not bad enough to prevent AMD from shipping 2 (soon to be 3) different cards in the space of a couple of months. The optics just come across as not so good for Nvidia, it makes it sound like Nvidia is blaming TSMC for lack of Kepler products, whether that is the case or not the inference is quite easy to draw.

nVidia is not blaming TSMC for a lack of Kepler. They never expect to ship Kepler in their financial Q4 since mid 2011. They are now in the ramping process and they see that their yields are lower than expected. That's normal when you start the production of the first products on a new process.
 

Medu

Member
Mar 9, 2010
149
0
76
AMD CEO never said yields were good, he said the yields were exactly as expected. JHH said they were less than expected. I wonder if both are getting the same yield rate, yet AMD correctly calculated it and based their products on that while NV (once again) did poor headwork and now their plans are foiled.

I remember reading that at 40nm AMD looked at the projected leakage figures that TSMC were providing and came to the conclusion that they were overly optimistic so they designed around it.
 

Phynaz

Lifer
Mar 13, 2006
10,140
819
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nVidia is not blaming TSMC for a lack of Kepler. They never expect to ship Kepler in their financial Q4 since mid 2011. They are now in the ramping process and they see that their yields are lower than expected. That's normal when you start the production of the first products on a new process.

Missing expectations is now considered "normal"?
 

SirPauly

Diamond Member
Apr 28, 2009
5,187
1
0
Well the bottom line is Nvidia is talking about worse than expected yields, AMD is shipping product. The yields are obviously not bad enough to prevent AMD from shipping 2 (soon to be 3) different cards in the space of a couple of months. The optics just come across as not so good for Nvidia, it makes it sound like Nvidia is blaming TSMC for lack of Kepler products, whether that is the case or not the inference is quite easy to draw.

IF one listens to the conference call, there is actually praise for TSMC from nvidia.
 

KompuKare

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2009
1,069
1,108
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I remember reading that at 40nm AMD looked at the projected leakage figures that TSMC were providing and came to the conclusion that they were overly optimistic so they designed around it.

That's interesting. So if at the design stage they prepared for a leakier process, how might that work? Would they leave larger gaps around high speed pathways on their design, and if yes would that affect their density, that is, transistor per mm²?

Hm, not sure. Just looked up the transistor count and die sizes of 5870 and 480 in Wiki and my maths seemed to indicate the opposite:

HD5870 2154 mill. trans 334mm² = 6.45 mil trans per mm²
GF480 3200 mill. trans 529mm² = 6.05 mil trans per mm²

Anyway, I'm sure there were numerous problems with GF480 but JHH is always quick to blame everyone but Nvidia for all problems...
 
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SirPauly

Diamond Member
Apr 28, 2009
5,187
1
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There are problems from nVidia with 28nm and clearly offered that their yields are lower than expected and would like more 28nm wafers.
 

blackened23

Diamond Member
Jul 26, 2011
8,548
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Never thought the day would come where I'd hear someone say this.

Keys, I don't think anyone is advocating the high prices. I for one am NOT patting AMD on the back for their prices, I wish they were lower - but I *do* understand why AMD would price like this in the face of supply or yield issues. Lets do a quick economics 101 lesson. Lets take for example, hurricane Katrina that happened a few years ago. As many news outlets reported that bottled water was scarce due to the supply chain being non existent after the disaster, and many retailers were charging a higher price. Now as a retailer - WHEN YOU ARE SUPPLY CONSTRAINED *and* demand rises, you have 2 choices:

Choice 1: Charge the same price. In the example above, one retailer may decide that he has 200 bottled waters but he will take the moral high ground and not charge a higher price. What happens is this: 2000 customers go to this retailer because they want cheap bottled water. Within 5 minutes, all of his bottled water supply is gone within minutes and you have 1800 customers there that are pissed off with no product. This retailer will spend weeks with no stock and no sales. Price gouging on the black market will begin. Choice 2: Raise the price accordingly due to increased demand. What practically every other retailer will do is charge an increased price to offset the demand. You *must* do this or you will basically run out of supply across the board. So at this retailer the consumers will grumble but you do not have 1800 pissed off customers that can't get product, and you also do not deplete your supply too quickly.

Its basic economics. Now economists will graph something called a supply schedule which predicts how many units of a product they will sell at every price point - it will graph "how many units will sell at 400$", "how many units will sell at 425$", etc. This is something that all corporations do, and they will price according to *what they can supply* and what is demanded. If demand is high you have to price according to what you can feasibly supply. AMD/nvidia are no exception. While some will vilify them for high prices, its just capitalism at work. If the story about low 28nm yields is true, it will be priced accordingly. I don't like it, it sucks.....but what can you do. I don't think this will change anything with Kepler, I fully expect it to arrive in April or May - but this will probably mean it will cost more than originally anticipated.
 
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maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,787
4,771
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nVidia is not blaming TSMC for a lack of Kepler. They never expect to ship Kepler in their financial Q4 since mid 2011. They are now in the ramping process and they see that their yields are lower than expected. That's normal when you start the production of the first products on a new process.
One can generally expect yields to be lower early in a new process or node. However, at any point in time, if yields are lower than expected, it says something about your ability to make realistic projections. Fermi also appeared to suffer from overly optimistic expectations. Is there a trend here?
 

wahdangun

Golden Member
Feb 3, 2011
1,007
148
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Never thought the day would come where I'd hear someone say this.

do you know about basic economi right ?

there are no competition, so its stupid if AMD release it like HD 5XXXX series. to be honest i like this new AMD CEO, he can prove to their shareholder that AMD can be aggressive too. and just with this move AMD share is increase more than 50%. so although its not good for consumer, its definitely good for AMD. and maybe if they gather enough profit, they can competitive again in CPU business.

if you want to blame, blame nvdia because they late again.
 

blackened23

Diamond Member
Jul 26, 2011
8,548
2
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there wasn't supposed to have a demo today?

Rumblings has it that Kepler won't be shown at PDXlan. Someone from OCN is there and mentioned this, although the actual event doesn't start will 6pm PST. Tune in later I hope we get more info.
 

wahdangun

Golden Member
Feb 3, 2011
1,007
148
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One can generally expect yields to be lower early in a new process or node. However, at any point in time, if yields are lower than expected, it says something about your ability to make realistic projections. Fermi also appeared to suffer from overly optimistic expectations. Is there a trend here?

maybe JHH is too confident that they can pull AMD on 40nm ?? because after Gforce FX, nvdia never make their flagship GPU on cutting edge process.
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,118
59
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Again, just excellent info; this is very insightful. It would seem to me then that NVIDIA will have difficulties in both yield arenas considering their approach. If functional yields are low for everyone because TSMC's 28nm process isn't doing so well, that's bad. Couple that simply with a physically bigger chip, I imagine yield plummets. If they are facing a parametric issue like they did with Fermi, then good luck seeing anything until there's been several respins.

If we're to believe the rumors/hype that Kepler was focused on power efficiency, maybe that will help so they can get some kind of product out the doors at a reasonable TDP (although they'll miss their performance target). I just find it funny that two years later, it doesn't seem like they learned from their mistakes with Fermi. I know designing chips takes an awful long time, but one would assume they wouldn't have placed as much faith in the process shrink this time around, although it seems they did. Where this looks even worse for consumers is that TSMC reportedly (or is it a rumor? I forget) isn't giving them the same pricing as Fermi, and they'll pay by the wafer like most. I imagine TSMC took a major hit when Fermi was released, and they won't repeat that mistake again.

Correct me if I am wrong, but AMD is not die-harvesting their 7970 GPU's, correct? They are fully functioning chips with all designed-in features active and yielding.

That tells us the functional yields of 28nm are not limiting AMD's market plans for 7970. Price may still be based on supply/demand that is supply limited simply because TSMC is 28nm capacity limited.

I don't know, there are a lot of possibilities here. Then again, had the 40nm sitation not played out as publicly as it did then I would not have considered it possible for Nvidia to miss the target on DFM as badly as they did when AMD managed to nail it as well as they did.

The corporate culture that is at root in that kind of an execution difference does not evaporate in 2yrs time. JHH may know what the problem is in his team that resulted in the 40nm issues but he may be helpless in changing it fast enough to impact 28nm plans.

Regarding the part I bolded in your post, yeah it is confirmed, NV stated it themselves.

I think TSMC did what they did for 28nm wafer contracts because they knew they had the market by the balls. UMC was a big question mark for 40nm market time, so TSMC had to be aggressive in contract negotiations to keep customers loyal.

This time around the only contenders for 28nm were GloFo and Samsung, but TSMC knew they were locking up that race in spades from early on.

http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4229977/28-nm-in-volume-production-says-TSMC

http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4229977/28-nm-in-volume-production-says-TSMC

"The number of tape-outs on 28nm compared to 40nm has been triple at the same stage of production."

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/other/...MC_Sees_Design_Explosion_with_28nm_Chips.html

According to the official of TSMC, the company already has 90% of the 28nm foundry market.

True or not, that kind of confidence on TSMC's behalf had to have an impact on their wafer contract negotiations.
 
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