Nvidia kills GTX285, GTX275, GTX260, abandons the mid and high end market

[v8envy]

Originally posted by: BenSkywalker

Maybe I hit my head and didn't realize it, but reducing inventory levels before being required to clearnace them is normally considered smart business.

In order for the next gen to replace the current gen it has to be available to board partners the same time the previous gen is EOLed. If there's a 3-4 month lag between ordering GPUs from Nvidia and boxes hitting retail shelves then there will be at least a 3-4 month lag between whenever Fermi ships to board partners and when Joe Sixpack can buy them brick and mortar. There has been a deafening silence regarding when Fermi GPUs are shipping to board partners, so it's reasonable to assume no parts in the pipeline between the time part A is discontinued and part B is available.

The parallels to sudden socket 939 starvation of the retail channel in 2006 are too strong to ignore. That didn't go well for AMD.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: BenSkywalker
I'm having a really hard time understanding this- they are flushing the distribution channels prior to the launch of new parts, and this somehow equates out to them abandoning the graphics market.....?

Current estimates have it part way through Q1 '10 before current supplies are exhausted, and everyone is expecting widespread availability of their next gen part by then.

Maybe I hit my head and didn't realize it, but reducing inventory levels before being required to clearnace them is normally considered smart business. The only thing this is really saying to me is that nV is planning on more of a top to bottom launch approach then they have been using for the last several years, nothing more and certainly nothinig remotely approaching what a lot of people are trying to read into it.

I agree and was going to add this into one of my responses. It seems like a normal cycle to me and everybody is looking more into it imo.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: v8envy

Originally posted by: BenSkywalker

Maybe I hit my head and didn't realize it, but reducing inventory levels before being required to clearnace them is normally considered smart business.

In order for the next gen to replace the current gen it has to be available to board partners the same time the previous gen is EOLed. If there's a 3-4 month lag between ordering GPUs from Nvidia and boxes hitting retail shelves then there will be at least a 3-4 month lag between whenever Fermi ships to board partners and when Joe Sixpack can buy them brick and mortar. There has been a deafening silence regarding when Fermi GPUs are shipping to board partners, so it's reasonable to assume no parts in the pipeline between the time part A is discontinued and part B is available.

The parallels to sudden socket 939 starvation of the retail channel in 2006 are too strong to ignore. That didn't go well for AMD.

Didnt Fermi tape out in Sept? I'd assume Fermi is in production for retail distribution right now or will start very soon. The board specs should have already been done or be very close by the time production runs start. I dont think there is going to be this lag you are thinking about. Fermi imo should start showing up in late Dec\Jan timeframe to coincide with the discontinuing of the Gt200 parts.

 

[v8envy]

Genx87, you know far more than I do re: tape out schedule. Fermi in production now and board specs being final would be a valid thing to assume EXCEPT. We haven't seen functioning boards at the very, very recent nvidia press event. The only thing shown off was a crude power tools & hot glue mockup, presented as "this puppy here is Tesla." And a die labeled "7."

I'm not sure how absolute secrecy is working in NV's favor. Plenty of people are convinced by doom and gloom threads like this one that Fermi won't be seen until Q1 or possibly Q2 of next year and are loading up on AMD's product instead. Showing a little bit of skin (read: a running board) even without leaking information would go a long way to convincing prospective customers to hang in there.

 

[Wreckage]

There was a similar silence prior to the G80 launch. Which turned out to be one of the most important GPU launches of all time.

Clearing out stock is smart instead of forcing your board partners to take it on the chin and dump stock, when the new one launches.

 

[MODEL3]

Even on the low end (<119$) things doesn't seem to be well for NV.

G 210 $40-50, worst perf. than Q3 2008 4350 (as low as $40 in Q3 2008)

GT 220 $69-79, worst perf. than Q3 2008 4670 ($79 in Q3 2008)

GT240 $99-119? (DDR3/GDDR5) will have worst perf. than Q2 2009 4770 (110$ in Q2 2009) (Of cource now ATI has DX11 5750 512MB at $110)

:thumbsup: Great prices lol

Sure the new cards run cooler and require less power, that's great, but is it enough to justify these prices?

But of cource NV didn't want to canibalize the 55nm parts
But why they even bothered to launch them in the retail field with this pricing model?
Do they like negative press?

Sure Nvidia has at these price points some better performing 55nm DX10 cards, but i wonder how much stock NV has and for how long it will produce these 55nm parts (Q2 2010 at the earliest for Fermi value segment parts)

Many sites are saying that these new 40nm parts produce much better margins for NV (even if you take account the higher priced 40nm wafer cost and the (possibly) better (for now) 55nm yields) (100mm2 GT 220 & 57mm2 G 210)
so i don't think NV will be willing to prolong the 55nm production any more.
(probably it will prolong only the G92b based cards, but i am not sure even for that)
(of cource i am talking about Q1 2010 stock situation, i think NV has Q4 2009 covered)

 

[T2k]

Originally posted by: Wreckage
There was a similar silence prior to the G80 launch. Which turned out to be one of the most important GPU launches of all time.

Priceless!!!

 

[T2k]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: v8envy

Originally posted by: BenSkywalker

Maybe I hit my head and didn't realize it, but reducing inventory levels before being required to clearnace them is normally considered smart business.

In order for the next gen to replace the current gen it has to be available to board partners the same time the previous gen is EOLed. If there's a 3-4 month lag between ordering GPUs from Nvidia and boxes hitting retail shelves then there will be at least a 3-4 month lag between whenever Fermi ships to board partners and when Joe Sixpack can buy them brick and mortar. There has been a deafening silence regarding when Fermi GPUs are shipping to board partners, so it's reasonable to assume no parts in the pipeline between the time part A is discontinued and part B is available.

The parallels to sudden socket 939 starvation of the retail channel in 2006 are too strong to ignore. That didn't go well for AMD.

Didnt Fermi tape out in Sept? I'd assume Fermi is in production for retail distribution right now or will start very soon. The board specs should have already been done or be very close by the time production runs start. I dont think there is going to be this lag you are thinking about. Fermi imo should start showing up in late Dec\Jan timeframe to coincide with the discontinuing of the Gt200 parts.

Suuuure... :roll:

Your posts are always nicely rhyme with your signature:

Failure of Public Education

Yeah, it taped out at least twice already - and your Sep date means at least another 12-16 weeks until it would make it to a friggin board.

FYI ATI showed its working proto at COMPUTEX in May - and 5870 shipped in Oct, 5 months later.

Wake up, kids. No GT300 before 2010, period.

PS: The

"Capitalism is the unequal distribution of wealth. Socialism is the equal distribution of poverty"

Is also a great piece of evidence just how bad education became in this country...

 

[OCGuy]

Originally posted by: T2k


PS: The

"Capitalism is the unequal distribution of wealth. Socialism is the equal distribution of poverty"

Is also a great piece of evidence just how bad education became in this country...

Oh god, an ATi fanboi and a socialist?

Yikes.

 

[Schmide]

Originally posted by: OCguy
Oh god, an ATi fanboi and a socialist?

Yikes.

I guess if you can redefine what Tea-Bagging is, you can redefine a fanboi and socialist as well.

Snikies

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: OCguy

Originally posted by: T2k


PS: The

"Capitalism is the unequal distribution of wealth. Socialism is the equal distribution of poverty"

Is also a great piece of evidence just how bad education became in this country...

Oh god, an ATi fanboi and a socialist?

Yikes.

I'd say somebody who is extremely bitter about something.

 

[Tempered81]

Expensive GTX280's

 

[yh125d]

Originally posted by: OCguy

Originally posted by: T2k


PS: The

"Capitalism is the unequal distribution of wealth. Socialism is the equal distribution of poverty"

Is also a great piece of evidence just how bad education became in this country...

Oh god, an ATi fanboi and a socialist?

Yikes.

You assume he's a socialist because he recognized the huge amount of stupidity crammed into that sentence? It's blatantly idiotic from beginning to end

 

[heyheybooboo]

I don't think there is a real shortage, either, but that article is probably only 'semi-accurate'.

If you think about this, nVidia's problems started about 2 years ago with the 'bumps' and kinda carried over from 65nm ---> 55nm. The shrink stumbled a bit and was late to the party, so understandably they most likely wanted to seriously ramp production to play catch up.

Their timing probably could have been a lot better. The downturn starts in late 2007, gets worse, and then turns to dung the last half of 2008 - and 55nm production finally hits high gear the first of this year when we effectively hit bottom.

The bottom line: Inventory has jumped 35% (and looks to be going higher) in the last few years, revenues are down 31%, and it looks as if AMD has out-flanked them on the price-point 'checkerboard'.

I wouldn't imagine a lot of nVidia fans jumping ship just yet --- AMD seems to be slicing the price of the GTXs for them

 

[yh125d]

Originally posted by: Wreckage
There was a similar silence prior to the G80 launch. Which turned out to be one of the most important GPU launches of all time.

Clearing out stock is smart instead of forcing your board partners to take it on the chin and dump stock, when the new one launches.

Silence on G80 when it was coming out, and when the competitor hadn't yet released their next-gen is very different from the scenario today - When the competitor has already released their product. Silence is hurting nvidia, and all these speculation threads show it

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: yh125d

Originally posted by: OCguy

Originally posted by: T2k


PS: The

"Capitalism is the unequal distribution of wealth. Socialism is the equal distribution of poverty"

Is also a great piece of evidence just how bad education became in this country...

Oh god, an ATi fanboi and a socialist?

Yikes.

You assume he's a socialist because he recognized the huge amount of stupidity crammed into that sentence? It's blatantly idiotic from beginning to end

Nothing wrong with the sentence. Send me a PM if you think otherwise.

 

[MrK6]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: yh125d

Originally posted by: OCguy

Originally posted by: T2k


PS: The

"Capitalism is the unequal distribution of wealth. Socialism is the equal distribution of poverty"

Is also a great piece of evidence just how bad education became in this country...

Oh god, an ATi fanboi and a socialist?

Yikes.

You assume he's a socialist because he recognized the huge amount of stupidity crammed into that sentence? It's blatantly idiotic from beginning to end

Nothing wrong with the sentence. Send me a PM if you think otherwise.

It's waaaayyy too black and white - sometimes people summarize things to the point that they're wrong.

 

[Schadenfroh]

The discussion of sigs unrelated to the topic of this thread ends now. Socialism versus capitalism and public education discussion belongs in AT P&N, not AT Video.

Thanks,
-Schadenfroh (AT Mod)

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: MrK6

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: yh125d

Originally posted by: OCguy

Originally posted by: T2k


PS: The

"Capitalism is the unequal distribution of wealth. Socialism is the equal distribution of poverty"

Is also a great piece of evidence just how bad education became in this country...

Oh god, an ATi fanboi and a socialist?

Yikes.

You assume he's a socialist because he recognized the huge amount of stupidity crammed into that sentence? It's blatantly idiotic from beginning to end

Nothing wrong with the sentence. Send me a PM if you think otherwise.

It's waaaayyy too black and white - sometimes people summarize things to the point that they're wrong.

It is supposed to be black and white and divisive. It appears to be working.

Edit: Dont be pissed, I was replying before your post schadenfrosh. I agree which is why I requested PM's instead of responses in this thread.

 

[Janooo]

Suddenly there is a high demand for the GT200 family.

Nice twist. PR works very hard.

 

[bryanW1995]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: v8envy

Originally posted by: BenSkywalker

Maybe I hit my head and didn't realize it, but reducing inventory levels before being required to clearnace them is normally considered smart business.

In order for the next gen to replace the current gen it has to be available to board partners the same time the previous gen is EOLed. If there's a 3-4 month lag between ordering GPUs from Nvidia and boxes hitting retail shelves then there will be at least a 3-4 month lag between whenever Fermi ships to board partners and when Joe Sixpack can buy them brick and mortar. There has been a deafening silence regarding when Fermi GPUs are shipping to board partners, so it's reasonable to assume no parts in the pipeline between the time part A is discontinued and part B is available.

The parallels to sudden socket 939 starvation of the retail channel in 2006 are too strong to ignore. That didn't go well for AMD.

Didnt Fermi tape out in Sept? I'd assume Fermi is in production for retail distribution right now or will start very soon. The board specs should have already been done or be very close by the time production runs start. I dont think there is going to be this lag you are thinking about. Fermi imo should start showing up in late Dec\Jan timeframe to coincide with the discontinuing of the Gt200 parts.

if fermi was already taped out then nvidia would have had something more than paper clips, duct tape, and rubber bands in jhh's hands two weeks ago. also, where are the performance claims? On paper it looks to be a beast, so either A.) they are further behind than they want us to believe, or B.) they spent too much time optimizing for gpgpu and are not confident that they will smash 58xx after all. Neither of those options bodes well for our wallets

Originally posted by: Wreckage
There was a similar silence prior to the G80 launch. Which turned out to be one of the most important GPU launches of all time.

Clearing out stock is smart instead of forcing your board partners to take it on the chin and dump stock, when the new one launches.

yes, and there was also a similar silence prior to 2900xt. how did that turn out? Plus, g80 was first to market by 6 months so there was no need to rain on anybody's parade, gt200 looks to be more like 6 months LATE so dribbling out info on a superior card should already be going on.



From looking at this thread as well as others over the past month, I must say that it is amazing how important it is to be first. Even if gt300 ends up launching before xmas ati will have made a lot of $$ over the intervening months, and unless gt300 launches before xmas WITH a significant performance advantage (say 20% or so) then ati will simply be able to drop prices a bit and keep on truckin'. On the flip side, gt300 could beat 5870 by 30% + but if it launches in feb '10 then we'll be halfway to 6xxx AND ati will still have the overall single card lead (as wreckage keeps reminding us is the only thing that matters) until nvidia can cobble together the gtx 395. Basically, first to market is first to the bank, last to market leaves you with the leftovers.