NVIDIA Pascal Thread

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Sweepr

Diamond Member
May 12, 2006
5,148
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131
Just when you thought rumours were starting to make sense...

Geforce GTX 980 and Geforce GTX 980 Ti to be replaced in May, Geforce GTX 970 successor in June

Now Reveals a source of more concrete information about launch plans, where the big news is that the GTX 980 Ti is confirmed to be replaced.

According to the plans as Nvidia started to communicate outwardly partner should Geforce GTX 980 and GTX 980 Ti replaced in May, where most points at the end of the month to steal the spotlight at Computex, which kicks off May 31 This is followed in June by a graphics card that succeed the popular bestseller GTX 970th

The information is enhanced not least by Nvidia and partner manufacturers started to clear their stocks of Geforce GTX 980 Ti, GTX 980 and GTX 970. Interestingly, the manufacturers still have the option to add new orders for Geforce GTX Titan X, even though it is in terms of performance rather GTX 980 Ti being replaced.

By all accounts replaced the trio of two graphics cards, which are likely to be on several previous occasions mentioned Geforce GTX 1080 and GTX 1070. The duo will use the new memory standard GDDR5X, a further development of GDDR5 which offers 43 (10 Gbps) and 71 percent (12 Gbps) higher bandwidth than today's GDDR5 memory at 7 Gbps, which is used by the GeForce GTX 970, GTX 980 and GTX 980 Ti.

www.sweclockers.com/nyhet/21978-nvi...ti-far-ersattare-i-maj-gtx-970-avloses-i-juni

- Geforce GTX 970, GTX980 and GTX 980 Ti will be replaced, manufacturers clearing stock
- Geforce X80 (?) to replace Geforce GTX 980 / GTX 980 Ti in late May, expected to steal the spotlight at Computex
- Geforce X70 (?) in June
- Geforce X80 & X70 will use GDDR5X

Perhaps they got the last part wrong and only one of the cards (Geforce X80) should use GDDR5X, but that wouldn't fit a late May launch (even paper launch?).
 

RussianSensation

Elite Member
Sep 5, 2003
19,458
765
126
They *are* confident that 1070 will beat Polaris, or it would have gotten delayed with GDDR5X memory, too.

I still don't get why people insist on comparing Polaris to GP104. It's the equivalent of expecting 7850/7870 to beat 670/680. AMD is rumored to have Vega 10 and Vega 11. Unless Polaris 10 goes far and above expectations but based on the supposed 232mm2 die size and what 2560 shaders, that thing would be lucky to tie or barely beat a stock Fury. I just don't see it. AMD set perf/watt increase of 2.5X over GCN1.0-1.1, NOT over Fiji. It's on their roadmap. That means slightly faster than 390X in say a 120W TDP.

As far 1070 and 1080 go, I did say earlier that I had a feeling NV is opportunistically trying to raise the price of mid-range even further to keep skyrocketing their profits/margins. With sub-$100 dGPU desktop market all but dead, and volume unit discrete GPU sales plummeting, the way to grow is raise prices and try to shift gamers to buy $300-650 parts. It also helps when your x50/x60 series are such under performers that it pushes even more buyers towards 970/1070 level.

At the same time, they want a killer more affordable mid-range card like 6800GT, 8800GTS 512MB, GTX970, etc. You can achieve both objectives by separating 1070 and 1080 even further. We already saw this with 970 and 980 and how well it worked. It's amazing seeing NV test the market gen after gen to see just how far they can push the prices of GTX460/560Ti mid-range lineage. $600-650 for an upper mid-range Pascal would be Lulz indeed and I have no doubt it'll sell like hot cakes since the majority of PC gamers have no understanding of NV's GPU history and next gen mid-range almost always outperforming last gen's $500-650 flagship despite next gen's mid-range historical $229-299 prices (of the past of course ).

Seems with 1480mhz clocks on the GP100 and huge variation in clocks between early GDDR5X bins and upper bins, this is going to be the easier generation for NV to have a GP104 V2 refresh transition in 2017.

The pricing game between AMD and NV is like a game of chess, but if Polaris 10 is rather weak against 1070, and esp. 1080, NV will have the entire $375-650 market segment to itself for 6+ months. Not great for solid competition and reasonable prices. It's actually strategic for NV to wait for AMD to launch Polaris 10 first since if 1070/1080 easily beat it, NV completely dictates their price to their liking! Brilliant.
 
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raghu78

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2012
4,093
1,475
136
Just when you thought rumours were starting to make sense...

Geforce GTX 980 and Geforce GTX 980 Ti to be replaced in May, Geforce GTX 970 successor in June


www.sweclockers.com/nyhet/21978-nvi...ti-far-ersattare-i-maj-gtx-970-avloses-i-juni

- Geforce GTX 970, GTX980 and GTX 980 Ti will be replaced, manufacturers clearing stock
- Geforce X80 (?) to replace Geforce GTX 980 / GTX 980 Ti in late May, expected to steal the spotlight at Computex
- Geforce X70 (?) in June
- Geforce X80 & X70 will use GDDR5X

Perhaps they got the last part wrong and only one of the cards (Geforce X80) should use GDDR5X, but that wouldn't fit a late May launch (even paper launch?).

If GTX 1080 and GTX 1070 both use GDDR5X then both will launch by Sep 2016, exactly 2 years after GTX 980/GTX 970. Micron is starting volume production in summer (June) which puts late Q3 2016 as the most realistic time when GPUs using GDDR5X launch. GTX 1070 with GDDR5X will easily beat GTX 980 Ti without being bandiwdth bottlenecked as the GDDR5X chips running at 12 Gbps should provide 384 GB/s. Micron has sampled GDDR5X chips at 13 Gbps. The only question is will the volume of GDDR5X production be enough to support the higher volume of GTX 1070 as its likely to be priced around USD 349-USD 399. AMD's Polaris 10 could be significantly higher volume and cheaper to produce as it will use GDDR5 and target USD 249- USD 349 price range.
 

Pinstripe

Member
Jun 17, 2014
197
12
81
As far 1070 and 1080 go, I did say earlier that I had a feeling NV is opportunistically trying to raise the price of mid-range even further to keep skyrocketing their profits/margins.

There is a limit to this game. If they become reckless in the pricing, consumer faith will be lost regardless whether there is competition around or not. Let's also remember the GTX 970 launch price was lower than the GTX 670.

That being said, I don't think the GTX 1070 will be cheap. New node (FinFET is more expensive), strained world economy, currency wars between China and the US, weak consumer spending, inflation etc. all add up to the price. But even if hypothetically speaking AMD was gone or become irrelevant, NV couldn't simple triple nilly-willy the price of their products because lulz we can. No. Are they opportunistic? Sure, but they're not that recklessly stupid to ruin their business.
 
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Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
126
Just when you thought rumours were starting to make sense...

Geforce GTX 980 and Geforce GTX 980 Ti to be replaced in May, Geforce GTX 970 successor in June



www.sweclockers.com/nyhet/21978-nvi...ti-far-ersattare-i-maj-gtx-970-avloses-i-juni

- Geforce GTX 970, GTX980 and GTX 980 Ti will be replaced, manufacturers clearing stock
- Geforce X80 (?) to replace Geforce GTX 980 / GTX 980 Ti in late May, expected to steal the spotlight at Computex
- Geforce X70 (?) in June
- Geforce X80 & X70 will use GDDR5X

Perhaps they got the last part wrong and only one of the cards (Geforce X80) should use GDDR5X, but that wouldn't fit a late May launch (even paper launch?).

Sweepr,

This is from Micron's most recent earnings call:

In the Graphic segment, we’re enthusiastic about the early success of our GDDR5X a discrete solution for increasing data rates above 10-gigabits per second. We’ve several major design wins and expect to have the products available by the end of the current fiscal quarter.

Micron's third fiscal quarter ends in early June. Could see 1070/1080 w/ GDDR5 in June, and then 1080 Ti with GDDR5X in August/September.
 

RussianSensation

Elite Member
Sep 5, 2003
19,458
765
126
There is a limit to this game. If they become reckless in the pricing, consumer faith will be lost regardless whether there is competition around or not. Let's also remember the GTX 970 launch price was lower than the GTX 670.

That being said, I don't think the GTX 1070 will be cheap. New node (FinFET is more expensive), strained world economy, currency wars between China and the US, weak consumer spending, inflation etc. all add up to the price. But even if hypothetically speaking AMD was gone or become irrelevant, NV couldn't simple triple nilly-willy the price of their products because lulz we can. No. Are they opportunistic? Sure, but they're not that recklessly stupid to ruin their business.

My post specifically mentions keeping 1070 in the sweet spot but raising the price on the 1080. In order to justify that, you increase the performance delta even further between the 1070 and 1080. Alternative way to look at it is take Kepler generation where mid-range was 660Ti/670/680. Take 670 and cut that out completely, relabel 660Ti SKU as 1070. Now look at the performance between $499 680 and $299 660Ti ~ about 25-26% (120 vs. 95 at 1600p)
https://www.techpowerup.com/mobile/reviews/ASUS/GeForce_GTX_660_Ti_Direct_Cu_II/28.html

So now that you have created a 23-26% performance gap, what you are going to do is raise the price of each card.

680 = $499 -> becomes 980 at $549 -> becomes 1080 at $599

660Ti = $299 -> you raise that to $349-399 and instead of calling it 1060Ti, you call it 1070.

With this strategy you maximize profits, use marketing to fool people into thinking they are buying a 1070, when it's just a 660Ti successor.

Then in the future, you have room to refresh both the 1080 with higher clocks and faster GDDR5X, and launch a true 1070 that you can call 1075 or 1070Ti or whatever, launch in 2017.

The point I am trying to make is, when AMD started dropping random nomenclature/marketing names on R9 380/380X or 390/390X, NV also started doing the same. We all know 960 is not a real x60 series card.

How do you explain that 780 was based on a cut-down flagship die, then 780Ti is a fully unlocked die, but this gen 980 is a mid-range die and 980Ti is a cut-down flagship die? (Aka 980Ti is a GTX570 successor more or less). All it is is a game of marketing played masterfully. And why is it done? It's very simple --> spread out a generation into parts, maximize profits at each path/part. Both AMD and NV are now playing this game. 390/390X jacked up prices $100+ over 290/290X.

So my point is, I don't care if they call Card A 1070 and Card B 1080, or X70 and X80. The truth will come out once we see the performance delta, die sizes, GDDR5 vs. GDDR5X mix, etc. Unfortunately, PC gamers have 3 second memory so if 1080 beats 1070 by 20-25%, they'll defend this scenario as if this was the norm for 20 years.

The better question to ask is why wouldn't NV do it if Vega 11 is 6+ months away? The only people who can change the industry are consumer buying habits, not NV trying to maximize profits and margins by creating an even bigger gap between a 1070 and 1080 to justify raising prices on both

I already called it day 1 when NV basically doubled the price of most SKUs with Kepler (560Ti -> 680), then I called it for them to increase it again with Maxwell (980 went to $550, $350 GTX570 ~ 980Ti went to $650). Now, they can move each card level 1 SKU up such that 660Ti becomes 1070 but still looks awesome by delivering ~980Ti performance for "only" $349-399 (remember I said $299 660Ti ~ 580 = a fully unlocked flagship).

What it means is on paper, the huge performance increase from 40nm Fermi to 28nm Kepler would be akin to 1060Ti matching the Titan X (GTX 580 3GB), while 670 easily beating the 580 would imply 1070 would beat the Titan X. That means a TRUE 1070, a true successor to the 670 has to beat the Titan X or NV low balled by design to maximize profits and spreading the performance over 2017 GP104 refreshes OR 1070 is only a 1070 in marketing name OR NV messed up royally with Pascal and 16nm node. I am not the type who believes in NV messing up based on their perfectly executed milking strategy from 2012 to 2016. Know what I mean.....Vega 11 MIA, NV has a small Polaris 10 against them.....sets a perfect scenario for profit maximization via brand name manipulation.

Another possibility is lower power usage of 1070/1080 cards to leave headroom for their refreshes in 2017. However, I don't buy that since NV set TDP arbitrarily on 970/980 anyway and no one cared.
 
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RussianSensation

Elite Member
Sep 5, 2003
19,458
765
126
If this would be true, it would mean that both GTX x70 and GTX x80 would consume from 300 to 375W alone, not to mention rest of the PC

That's clearly a translation mistake. What they are trying to say most likely is that both 1070/1080 will have 8-pin connectors. 8-pin alone provides 150W, which means together with PCIe, it will be enough for any GP104 Max overclocked card.

980Ti is a 240-250W card:
http://www.techpowerup.com/mobile/reviews/Gigabyte/GTX_980_Ti_XtremeGaming/21.html

That means a 175-185W after-market 1080 should level it if NV delivers even 50% increase in perf/watt and they promised 100%.

Around launch benches
1920x1080 AA
580 (Titan X) = 100%
670 (GK104) = 121%
680 (GK104) = 132%

2560x1600 AA
580 = 100%
670 = 123%
680 = 134%

http://www.computerbase.de/2012-05/test-nvidia-geforce-gtx-670/4/

That means on average, 680 beat 580 by 33% at key resolutions, while 670 beat the 589 by 22%.

But remember, 980Ti is not like a 580 since it's further cut down from the TX. So it should be easier than ever for 1070/1080 to crush the 980Ti; that is if NV didn't purposely gimp them
 
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Pinstripe

Member
Jun 17, 2014
197
12
81
I don't know RS, I read through all this sludge and the same "crime" can be applied to AMD. You don't seriously think AMD isn't going to rebrand Polaris with faster memory as soon as the opportunity arises?
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,844
5,457
136
That's clearly a translation mistake. What they are trying to say most likely is that both 1070/1080 will have 8-pin connectors. 8-pin alone provides 150W, which means together with PCIe, it will be enough for any GP104 Max overclocked card.

Not if the TDP is 250+ W. The ref 980 Ti is 6+8 but I believe most retail boards are 2x8-pin.
 

RussianSensation

Elite Member
Sep 5, 2003
19,458
765
126
I don't know RS, I read through all this sludge and the same "crime" can be applied to AMD. You don't seriously think AMD isn't going to rebrand Polaris with faster memory as soon as the opportunity arises?

I said both companies are doing it. Also, putting faster memory and raising clocks is perfectly fine. We say that wit GTX 770 and 7970-> 7970Ghz/280X. My point is purposely relabeling 660Ti successor as a 1070 so you can raise prices on both the 1070, which should have been a 1060Ti and 1080.

I already outlined above where 670-680 sat vs. 580 (this gen's Titan X). So once 1070/1080 launch, we'll see exactly what NV did. And if both AMD and NV keep playing this game, then why not call both of them out on it? When AMD launched 7970Ghz, I still bought the standard 7970 and saved $100 per card since I saw their marketing BS. It's the same chips coming off the assembly line that are purposely gimped out of the factory to maximize profits. Why do you think many of us advised to not buy 7950/7970 before NV launched their cards too just to see where all the chips land? See most people forget this part where many of us advised waiting for 2.5-3 months back then. Same when NV straight up milked it with 780, some of us advised to wait for AMD and boom $399 290 > $650 780!

That's why if AMD has nothing against GP104, NV can low ball performance AND raise prices by manipulating 1060Ti to take 1070's place. Why do you think many of us stress how competition is so vital to a healthy GPU market?
 

Adored

Senior member
Mar 24, 2016
256
1
16
I still don't get why people insist on comparing Polaris to GP104. It's the equivalent of expecting 7850/7870 to beat 670/680.

232mm2 + 8% (the expected minimum of Samsung's 14LPP area benefit over TSMC's 16FF+) = 250mm2

GP104 appears to be 294mm2, or an 18% bigger chip. GK104 was 39% bigger than Pitcairn.

GK110 is 25% bigger than Hawaii.

If these numbers are all accurate, we really should expect it to be close.
 

Pinstripe

Member
Jun 17, 2014
197
12
81
My point is purposely relabeling 660Ti successor as a 1070 so you can raise prices on both the 1070, which should have been a 1060Ti and 1080.

"Should have been"? You say this like you already know all 1070 specs. If anything, the GTX 970 was the successor to the 660 Ti with it's crippled bus and lower ROP count. There's no evidence the 1070 will repeat a GTX 970 fiasco. It's just using slower GDDR5 memory and fewer cores to achieve the performance gap to the GTX 1080. And I don't think Nvidia will go back to the "Ti" label again barring the big GP100/102. There's no point in fragmenting the market too much. If there's really a refresh in 2017, they'll just call it 1170/1180 I suppose.
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
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That's why if AMD has nothing against GP104, NV can low ball performance AND raise prices by manipulating 1060Ti to take 1070's place. Why do you think many of us stress how competition is so vital to a healthy GPU market?

Competition is "vital" to driving prices down, but it's terrible for corporate profits. Once a market is so "competitive" to the point that nobody is making money, competitors drop out because there's no real incentive for those companies to pursue the market any longer.

That's why there are now only two dGPU makers left.

The more lucrative a business potentially is, the more aggressively companies will invest, which means better products.
 
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Kris194

Member
Mar 16, 2016
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0
0
RussianSensation is right. I miss the times when we could buy flagship GPU (GTX 280 equal nowadays to Titan X) for 649$ and GTX 260 (equal nowadays to GTX 980 Ti) for 449$. What we call now GTX 1080 was more like GTS 250 back in the days.
 
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Adored

Senior member
Mar 24, 2016
256
1
16
Competition is "vital" to driving prices down, but it's terrible for corporate profits. Once a market is so "competitive" to the point that nobody is making money, competitors drop out because there's no real incentive for those companies to pursue the market any longer.

That's why there are now only two dGPU makers left.

The more lucrative a business potentially is, the more aggressively companies will invest, which means better products.

Yes then the winner starts looking for more ways to make even more money, for example with planned obsolescence or focusing on alternative, higher-margin business like deep learning, AI etc instead of gaming.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
136
This is getting very exiting, im really looking forward to see how the GP104 will be relative to GP100.
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
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Yes then the winner starts looking for more ways to make even more money, for example with planned obsolescence or focusing on alternative, higher-margin business like deep learning, AI etc instead of gaming.

In businesses where unit growth is hard to come by, the focus shifts to trying to improve revenue per unit. The dGPU market is at best flattish, with the revenue opportunities here mainly a result of people buying higher-end gaming GPUs than they have in the past (ASP increase).
 

xpea

Senior member
Feb 14, 2014
449
150
116
Yes then the winner starts looking for more ways to make even more money, for example with planned obsolescence or focusing on alternative, higher-margin business like deep learning, AI etc instead of gaming.
May I remember you that PC Desktop + Laptop GPU market is shrinking at very fast pace (more than 20% YoY) ?
That soon, it wont be enough profit to pay R&D and tape out these multi billion dollar ICs on more and more expensive nodes ?
Nvidia HAS TO find new application for their IP and silicon or they wont be able to continue.
No choice here, it's just survival 101...
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
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RussianSensation is right. I miss the times when we could buy flagship GPU (GTX 280 equal nowadays to Titan X) for 649$ and GTX 260 (equal nowadays to GTX 980 Ti) for 449$. What we call now GTX 1080 was more like GTS 250 back in the days.

Do you realize how off-base this sounds? The amount of GPU power that you can buy today for the same amount of $ that you would have had to shell out 5-10 years ago is staggeringly higher. There are very few industries in which you get substantially better products today than you could yesterday for the same price, if not cheaper (adjusting for inflation).

Do you complain that when you go to the grocery store to buy food that you're getting basically the same food (if not lower quality) for more than you would have paid 10 years ago?
 

Adored

Senior member
Mar 24, 2016
256
1
16
May I remember you that PC Desktop + Laptop GPU market is shrinking at very fast pace (more than 20% YoY) ?
That soon, it wont be enough profit to pay R&D and tape out these multi billion dollar ICs on more and more expensive nodes ?
Nvidia HAS TO find new application for their IP and silicon or they wont be able to continue.
No choice here, it's just survival 101...

Yes I realise that - I'm not having a go at Nvidia they need to do what they can to survive and they are doing the right thing for them. I hope they make a fortune in AI, I really do.

Just be aware that AMD's survival depends on x86 - a battle they win vs Intel through gaming and superior graphics. Take your pick of which one suits you most.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
136
Do you realize how off-base this sounds? The amount of GPU power that you can buy today for the same amount of $ that you would have had to shell out 5-10 years ago is staggeringly higher. There are very few industries in which you get substantially better products today than you could yesterday for the same price, if not cheaper (adjusting for inflation).

Do you complain that when you go to the grocery store to buy food that you're getting basically the same food (if not lower quality) for more than you would have paid 10 years ago?

ehm no,

Mainstream used to be at $250, now its $330-500

Example, GTX560 vs GTX 680 and GTX980

High-End was used to be $500, now its $750-1000

Example, GTX 580 vs GTX 780Ti/Titan and GTX 980Ti/Titan

edit: And just to understand exactly what has happened.

GTX 560Ti = GF114 = 332mm2 = MSRP $250
GTX 680 = GK104 = 294mm2 = MSRP $500
GTX980 = GM204 = 398mm2 = MSRP $549

GTX 580 = GF110 = 520mm2 = MSRP $500
TITAN = GK110 = 560mm2 = MSRP $1000
GTX 780Ti = GK110 = 560mm2 = MSRP $700
GTX 980Ti = GM200 = 600mm2 = MSRP $650
TITAN-X = GM200 = 600mm2 = MSRP $1000
 
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