- Jun 8, 2003
- 14,387
- 480
- 126
I would guess 3 years is when RT will become mainstream.You're being far, far too optimistic. As it has been pointed out, only the 2080 Ti even offers acceptable (and barely at that) levels of RT performance. Look back at previous generations and it's pretty easy to see how slow the uptake is on the high-end. The 980 Ti makes a pretty good point of comparison because it came out a little over 3 years ago and has about equal performance to a 1070.
If you check the Steam hardware survey, as of June 2018 (the 980 Ti came out in June 2015) there were only 8.5% of users who had something at 980 Ti level or better. It's even worse in this case since the 980 Ti came out at $650, whereas the 2080 Ti is about twice that price. I have no idea to what extent that slows adoption even more, but it's pretty obvious that it isn't going to speed it up.
I think it's cool that NVidia is trying this out, but you're just deluding yourself if you think that it's going to be mainstream and widely accessible in the next 5 years. Even 10 years is probably being generous. I remember when people thought that the Nintendo 64 would be capable of real time ray tracing, so this pipe dream of soon to be ubiquitous ray tracing is hardly new.
7nm Touring next year with another 35% performance gain and then 18 month's after that in 2021 another 35% performance gain.
By 2021 a 5nm rtx4060 clocking in at 3ghz will easily handle 4k RT graphics with DLSS.
AMD will have a RTX/DLSS solution in that timeframe also,
as well as the consoles.