Nvidia shares skyrocket after great financial results

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RussianSensation

Elite Member
Sep 5, 2003
19,458
765
126
And AMD signed off on this? Woof, the incompetence at that company.

Yup, just another day in the office for them.

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NV is carving a nice niche. For example in the 2016 Audi TT:

Audi side assist
MMI® navigation plus (powered by NV)
Heated, auto-dimming, power-folding exterior side mirrors with LED turn indicator lights
Audi connect®
Parking system plus
Rear view camera (powered by NV)
Audi virtual cockpit (powered by NV)
$3250 option

Even if NV charged $350 for this, Audi is making bank and NV is making more $ than off a single 980Ti. Would be interesting to see how high the margins are for NV in this automotive segment.

----

To add to my other posts, it's not surprising that NV is capturing the vast majority of growth in the high-end gaming segments having 8 months uncontested lead with 980 and then beating Fury/Fury X to market by a full month with a 980Ti, and then even when those AMD cards came out, neither of them is really worth buying over the 980Ti. Most gamers now would have little reason to pick Fury and Fury X over 980Ti. In some countries, such as Canada, their prices are so close or nearly identical and 980Ti OC is 20-25% faster. AMD shot itself in the foot on price/performance for anything other than the R9 390 and below. I wouldn't be surprised if NV has 90% market share in the $400+ space right now.
 
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bystander36

Diamond Member
Apr 1, 2013
5,154
132
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144 hz GSYNC monitor vs 90 hz FS monitor. You can figure it out.

You do realize only one game had anytime above 90 FPS, and it without it included, the results were more in favor of Nvidia. So I doubt it played that big a factor. As long as the FPS stay below 90, the hz do too.
 

boozzer

Golden Member
Jan 12, 2012
1,549
18
81
You definitely should. There are at least 5 glaring issues with that "blind study".

1) The study was not performed on brand angostic users exclusively. In fact, only 4 people preferred AMD products to 19 people who preferred NV, before any testing began.

2) 10 users knew what test systems used which parts which automatically means there was some flaw(s) in the methodologies as no one should ever be able to guess which PC has an AMD vs. NV GPU if the testing was truly blind.

3) It was chosen to test with VSync OFF, however, AMD's GPUs have lower input lag than NV's with Vsync ON. Now if I am playing a game that has wild FPS jumping from 40-80 fps, I am not about to go and turn VSync Off for my 35-60 fps range and then go turn back VSync on when my game exceeds 60 fps. That means I'll probably pick gaming with VSync ON at all times. But this decision gives GSync a major win automatically per Linus' testing. How would things turn out if the entire test was conducted with VSync ON?

4) The competence of the testers themselves. People actually picked the gaming experience with BF4 on High (NV cards) over BF4 on Ultra (AMD cards) but it doesn't take a genius to realize that Ultra settings would bring down performance on the AMD setup. So if someone wanted to measure the smoothest experience (not IQ), the High setting would automatically win.

5) Borderlands 2 was an automatic win for NV (see details in the test).

-----------------------

As far as some commenters mentioning that AMD makes cards that run hot and loud, Sapphire Fury Tri-X is quieter at max load than NV's reference 980Ti is at idle. Fury cards are also cool.





After how many people bought the jet engine Gigabyte G1, GTX970/980/980Ti reference cards, it's become obvious that noise levels do NOT matter when it comes to NV products for NV fans when comparing NV vs. AMD videocards. Noise levels and low temps ONLY matter if it's good enough to justify one's purchase of an NV card for fans of that brand but as soon as NV starts losing in those metrics (or any metric), this metric no longer matters.

As a side-note, having worked in Asia and Middle East and of course having lived and visited Russia and Brazil, based on my anecdotal evidence, in 3rd world/developing countries, people are most brand attached (this isn't just about NV). In any event, in Central Asian country I've lived, the market share for NV sales based on discussions with store managers was close to 99%. They don't sell AMD cards at all unless the customer custom ordered it from Urumqi, China or Taiwan. In Russia and Brazil, the love for American brands is incredible, and they also automatically associate higher priced products = better. NV wins in those markets automatically.

The biggest problem I see this round is there is a huge wave of brand agnostic gamers who are leaving AMD. We already knew that at least 50% of the video game market was committed to NV. The second major factor is AMD's nearly complete loss of market share in the laptop market. Even if the laptop / desktop dGPU market was split 50%/50%, with NV having 90% of the laptop market and 60% of the desktop market (NV's historical trend), NV would already have 75% overall dGPU market share. However, we know that the notebook dGPU market is greater than 50% of the entire dGPU market which makes perfect sense how NV's overall market share is 80%+.

NV's CEO also sites that more gamers in China and other developing markets are moving to high-end graphics cards:
Nvidia: China is shifting to high-end GPUs

That would explain how NV's revenue and ASP keep rising while gross margins are in the 55-56% range quarter after quarter, a far cry from the much lower gross margins during Tesla, Fermi and early part of Kepler generations. I wouldn't be surprised if NV jacked up the price of 980's successor to $599 even if it only beats 980Ti by 20% (recall it was insulting and unheard of for a next-gen mid-range to go up from $249 to $499 with GTX680 but even a 680 was 35% faster than a 580). It'll be interesting to see how Maxwell fares in 1.5 years from now as far as driver optimizations go. Given that NV has UE4 under its belt and GW is firing on all cylinders as far as closed-source code optimizations go, NV is going to have full control over GPU obsolescence.



NV is mainly providing the Tegra chipsets but the software is likely made by 3rd parties. The Virtual Cockpit is powered by Google Maps while the MMI interface is Apple's Car Play and Android's OS version:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RraX-Le8jx4

NV's CEO is a very smart/visionary CEO and that's why I love him for that as he foresaw that cars of the future will need powerful computers, deep learning and so on to become safer, more connected to the world and more efficient. This is yet another flop of ATI's management in the past where they sold early predecessors of Adreno (acrynom for Radeon) to Qualcomm. ATI could have been at the forefront of automotive SoCs but again no one at that firm has a correct vision to carry through.

JHH is very smart. He didn't just pick random auto firms either but the fastest growing luxury makers who wouldn't blink at the cost of Tegra SoC. If NV continues to execute well, it shouldn't be too difficult for them to infiltrate the entire line-ups of AMD, Mercedes, VW and BMW vehicles over the next 10 years. That market could be huge, far more profitable than AMD being in consoles.
hehe, guess it is a good thing I am regressing back to a casual. trying to keep up on hardware with 20% generational performance increase is just extremely stupid. and a price increase to top it off.

the fact that nv is going all in for auto parts means dgpu performance could be hitting a wall just like how cpus are right now. 5 to 10% performance leaps!!! buy it now for a 20% price increase over the last gen! at least intel doesn't change their prices much for each performance segment intel needs to learn
 
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5150Joker

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2002
5,559
0
71
www.techinferno.com
Yup, just another day in the office for them.

----

NV is carving a nice niche. For example in the 2016 Audi TT:

Audi side assist
MMI® navigation plus (powered by NV)
Heated, auto-dimming, power-folding exterior side mirrors with LED turn indicator lights
Audi connect®
Parking system plus
Rear view camera (powered by NV)
Audi virtual cockpit (powered by NV)
$3250 option

Even if NV charged $350 for this, Audi is making bank and NV is making more $ than off a single 980Ti. Would be interesting to see how high the margins are for NV in this automotive segment.

----

To add to my other posts, it's not surprising that NV is capturing the vast majority of growth in the high-end gaming segments having 8 months uncontested lead with 980 and then beating Fury/Fury X to market by a full month with a 980Ti, and then even when those AMD cards came out, neither of them is really wroth buying over the 980Ti. Most gamers now would have little reason to pick Fury and Fury X over 980Ti. In some countries, such as Canada, their prices are so close or nearly identical and 980Ti OC is 20-25% faster. AMD shot itself in the foot on price/performance for anything other than the R9 390 and below. I wouldn't be surprised if NV has 90% market share in the $400+ space right now.

Certain people around here were claiming not too long ago that Fury/Fury X and the rebrands would bring AMD back to market parity with NVIDIA. In fact they even bet me on this...wonder where they are right now.
 

Keysplayr

Elite Member
Jan 16, 2003
21,209
50
91
Certain people around here were claiming not too long ago that Fury/Fury X and the rebrands would bring AMD back to market parity with NVIDIA. In fact they even bet me on this...wonder where they are right now.

Isn't that where you guys were betting Steam games? Or was that somebody else? heh.
 

Azix

Golden Member
Apr 18, 2014
1,438
67
91
Certain people around here were claiming not too long ago that Fury/Fury X and the rebrands would bring AMD back to market parity with NVIDIA. In fact they even bet me on this...wonder where they are right now.

AMD didn't have quite the same showing as nvidia with their 980 and 970. I think people got an overestimate of the performance of those cards at launch. I remember stalking stores excited waiting to get a 970, looking at it now vs the 290x and 980 vs 290x/390x I am not sure if i was sane back then. Nvidia had better launches and right now there is still the choice of going nvidia or AMD. back when maxwell 2 launched AMD was not pushing the 290x nor was there much noise about them post their launch and mining craze. So some would have only seen 970 and 980 as options. The 970 also avoided bad press because of nvidias lie regarding the actual specs of the card. It looked much more solid than it really is.

Their launches after the hawaii cards didn't make much noise either. 295x2 was king of the high end and nobody cared. 285 only mattered when the 960 came out later.

I don't expect full parity but they should be able to gain more market share and dx12 is yet to be played out.
 
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tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
7,355
642
121
Isn't that where you guys were betting Steam games? Or was that somebody else? heh.

That was someone else who said he had equipment to prove his point and then they sat around and just beat around the bush. I simply said out of nowhere and just said "Prove it" then he started saying how we needed to bet steam games or something. He was subsequently removed from the conversation by mods.
I really don't get why people say they have the means to prove their point though, then just refuse to actually do it and just sit there and argue online instead of just posting the proof.
 

Piroko

Senior member
Jan 10, 2013
905
79
91
MMI® navigation plus (powered by NV)
Rear view camera (powered by NV)
Audi virtual cockpit (powered by NV)
$3250 option

Even if NV charged $350 for this, Audi is making bank and NV is making more $ than off a single 980Ti. Would be interesting to see how high the margins are for NV in this automotive segment.
The camera is just that, a camera plugged into the MMI or instrument cluster.
Also, these SOCs are very likely in the category less than 20$ each, possibly less than 15$. Make no mistake, the automotive industry is an extremely low margin field and Nvidia is a new player that tries to get contracts.
It is also high guaranteed volume over long periods, similarly to consoles, which explains their investment (of adapting a product that was already developed for the most part).
 
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Despoiler

Golden Member
Nov 10, 2007
1,966
770
136
And that disadvantage will also erode as NV moves to NVlink for multi-GPU communications and data transfer.

NVLink is for HPC. The CPU has to support the NVLink spec and it's only slated for PowerPC chips at this time.
 

ocre

Golden Member
Dec 26, 2008
1,594
7
81
Care to elaborate?

They arent just selling chips. They work with car manufactures to create the entire infotainment experience, unique to the car.



http://www.nvidia.com/object/automotive-infotainment-navigation.html

they do so much more than sell them a chip.

http://www.nvidia.com/content/tegra/automotive/pdf/automotive-brochure-web.pdf

Key to NVIDIA automotive innovation is NVIDIA UI Composer Studio ™, a world-class instrument cluster and infotainment design tool. This advanced design tool incorporates 2D and 3D graphics, as well as powerful interactivity capabilities, to deliver amazing graphics in Tegra applications. Together, UI Composer and Tegra can deliver a photorealistic instrument cluster and IVI systems by levering a Materials Definition Language (MDL). Create and customize using a wide range of materials such as carbon fiber, brushed metals, stitched leather, or glass. It’s a visionary new solution that enables rapid prototyping of multiple design variations, eases usability testing, and fast tracks production so you can create more exciting and engaging driver experiences

It is an entire package. Top to bottom Infotainment solution. They are creating the look, feel, and functionality.

Realistic computer-generated 3D models and virtual simulations
create award-winning designs. Rich graphics, natural language
processing, and gesture control lead to sophisticated 3D navigation
systems. Powerful computer vision and machine learning systems
result in safer driving experiences.

So, here is a demo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHpsgCP4C2M

They work close with car manufactures to give them a product unique to that manufacture. They dont just sell them a chip, like they would for a tablet. it is much deeper than that.

every manufacture has their own ideas and they all want different things
http://www.newelectronics.co.uk/ele...tive-infotainment-and-safety-solutions/88053/

Maxim Integrated Products has collaborated with NVIDIA to enable the analogue blocks on automotive infotainment and ADAS for NVIDIA's DRIVE CX and PX platforms.


To address concerns raised about the impact that interactive technologies will have on driver distraction, automakers have increased their focus on safety requirements within entertainment platforms. This balance between infotainment and ADAS is one of the principal challenges facing today's automotive ecosystem.

To meet this safety-in-entertainment challenge, NVIDIA has developed complex automotive SoCs capable of driving multiple functions with parallel processing architecture and large computing power.

"Maxim develops the high-performance analogue ecosystem required to drive NVIDIA's supercomputer platform," said Kent Robinett, managing director of automotive sales and marketing at Maxim Integrated. "Our collaboration enables new possibilities for infotainment and ADAS markets within automotive."

They are building ecosystems unique to each car. They bring a lot to the table: software, visuals, ecosystems, integration, etc. They arent just selling chips

http://www.pcworld.com/article/2955...cockpit-with-gaming-speed-60fps-graphics.html
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
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Even if NV charged $350 for this, Audi is making bank and NV is making more $ than off a single 980Ti. Would be interesting to see how high the margins are for NV in this automotive segment.

Not anywhere as good as you might think:



Also, there's no way NVIDIA is averaging anything close to $350 per car. It's more in the ballpark of $50 worth of content per car.
 

Piroko

Senior member
Jan 10, 2013
905
79
91
They arent just selling chips. They work with car manufactures to create the entire infotainment experience, unique to the car.

http://www.nvidia.com/object/automotive-infotainment-navigation.html

they do so much more than sell them a chip.

http://www.nvidia.com/content/tegra/automotive/pdf/automotive-brochure-web.pdf
Those are press articles about upcoming solutions which might or might not be adopted by the systems integrators. As far as I'm aware that specific Audi system we were talking about was developed in-house at Bosch GmbH, on QNX and with development tools from Rightware.

It is an entire package. Top to bottom Infotainment solution. They are creating the look, feel, and functionality.

So, here is a demo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHpsgCP4C2M
That is a standard demo that everyone in the industry does to showcase their plattform. I would be surprised if this is more than a couple thousand lines of hand-written code.

They work close with car manufactures to give them a product unique to that manufacture. They dont just sell them a chip, like they would for a tablet. it is much deeper than that.

every manufacture has their own ideas and they all want different things
http://www.newelectronics.co.uk/ele...tive-infotainment-and-safety-solutions/88053/

They are building ecosystems unique to each car. They bring a lot to the table: software, visuals, ecosystems, integration, etc. They arent just selling chips

http://www.pcworld.com/article/2955...cockpit-with-gaming-speed-60fps-graphics.html
The first article isn't even about Nvidia and the second article is a press fanboy being hyped and not even doing a particularly good job at showcasing it.


Nvidia is growing in the automotive industry, no doubt, but there are a couple of players that have - or will shortly have - solutions ready to battle with Nvidia. For example Renesas with their new R-Car 2 plattform.
 

2is

Diamond Member
Apr 8, 2012
4,281
131
106
lmao. Those numbers were meant to illustrate a point, not to be taken as some insiders revelation. To make it easy for you, its easier to charge more on something like a car than a console.



AMDs GPUs are fine. I don't care if you need them to significantly outpace nvidia to acknowledge the fact that

a fury beats a 980
a 390x trades with a 980
a 390 trades with a 970 (290x beats)
a 380 beats a 960
AMD has a million cards below that faster than a 750ti

The MAIN reason nvidia does well on GPUs is perception. Even in the freesync vs Gsync test it was assumed by some that G-sync was better. Just like that you get a bias. Same with GPUs. even if nvidia had a worse design, they would often be considered better. Maybe it's fortune, maybe its good PR or some lingering mistakes and wins from the past for both companies. eg. one could argue nvidias GPUs are toys because they are more cut down than AMDs. get this idea to cement in people's heads and you get an idea of the power of company/product image.

Its good to not rely too heavily on GPUs for gaming. When it comes down to it nvidia is still a lightweight in terms of expertise and they seem to be trying to break into/create big industries. The only specialty they have is GPUs? Applying that in unique ways looks good to investors. The danger of this can be seen with AMD and their expertise in CPUs though. they were there, but someone bigger beat them down with a big stick and they burned tons of cash as a result. If nvidia faces a bigger competitor similar to intel they could burn investments and end up in a bad situation. If GPUs are a unique solution to this feature then unlikely, but I could imagine intel wanting in. "intel inside" your car with discounts if you don't deal with nvidia.

http://www.intel.com/content/www/us...ce-systems-self-driving-technology-paper.html

of course they are already.

The only thing this post proves is that your alternate universe and ours share the same internet.
 

DeathReborn

Platinum Member
Oct 11, 2005
2,758
754
136
Not anywhere as good as you might think:



Also, there's no way NVIDIA is averaging anything close to $350 per car. It's more in the ballpark of $50 worth of content per car.

Hardware wise yea, probably $50 but the software and other auxiliary components probably boost that substantially. Best to wait for a similar slide with Automotive added before judging how big a margin Automotive Tegra gets. Besides PC OEM is a drag on any companies margin lately.
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
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Hardware wise yea, probably $50 but the software and other auxiliary components probably boost that substantially. Best to wait for a similar slide with Automotive added before judging how big a margin Automotive Tegra gets. Besides PC OEM is a drag on any companies margin lately.

Automotive is part of NVIDIA's Tegra Processor business. I suspect that soon, automotive will be the vast majority of its Tegra Processor business (it was >50% last quarter, IIRC).
 

RussianSensation

Elite Member
Sep 5, 2003
19,458
765
126
the fact that nv is going all in for auto parts means dgpu performance could be hitting a wall just like how cpus are right now. 5 to 10% performance leaps!!! buy it now for a 20% price increase over the last gen! at least intel doesn't change their prices much for each performance segment intel needs to learn

I wouldn't conclude that GPU performance is hitting a wall. I think it's more to do with NV trying to find new avenues for growth.

Also, what NV doesn't like to release publicly is the units sold. They always talk about revenue growth and gross margin growth and increases in ASPs. All of these factors go hand-in-hand but what NV doesn't want people/investors to know is that the entire dGPU market is shrinking.

"According to Jon Peddie Research, total shipments of graphics cards in the Q1 2014 dropped to 14 million units"
http://www.kitguru.net/components/g...ics-cards-dropped-significantly-in-q2-report/

to this:

"PR recently found that around 12.4 million discrete desktop graphics adapters for desktop computers were shipped by various manufacturers in Q4 2014. [/B]"
http://www.kitguru.net/components/g...aphics-cards-drops-dramatically-in-q1-report/

and keeps getting worse:

"Shipments of graphics cards in the first quarter of 2015 decreased to 11.3 million units, an 8.79 per cent drop quarter over quarter and a 19.41 per cent drop year-over-year, according to Jon Peddie Research."
http://www.kitguru.net/components/g...-adapters-refocus-to-high-end-graphics-cards/

NV sees the trends - the discrete GPU market is in dramatic decline. As a result, they are doing everything possible to get gamers to buy $300-1000 graphics cards to make up for the loss of unit sales of the shrinking graphics card market. That's why we will see even more focus on higher ASPs (per die size), even more marketing towards highest end cards like 980Ti or upcoming 990M.

NV is trying to diversify into other segments (automotive) because they see these alarming trends in unit sales. And this doesn't touch how bad it's getting because in the past quarterly dGPU sales were 16-19 million units. That's why imho NV wanting to throw as many demanding GW features as possible and to obsolete older gen cards is a big incentive for them to get gamers to upgrade more often.

Certain people around here were claiming not too long ago that Fury/Fury X and the rebrands would bring AMD back to market parity with NVIDIA. In fact they even bet me on this...wonder where they are right now.

In fairness, you also laughed/ignored the idea that after-market 980Ti would beat Titan X out of the box for ~$700 as well as ignored how many of us projected AMD's 2nd best card, today known as Fury, to offer 87-89% of the performance of the reference Titan X at 4K. Both of those predictions came true and many gamers told you there was a high probability of both of these events coming true and yet you opposed either of these ideas defending your Titan X purchase. Therefore, I find it odd that you would try to mock someone publicly on AT for falsely predicting how Fury X didn't manage to beat the Titan X.

The camera is just that, a camera plugged into the MMI or instrument cluster.
Also, these SOCs are very likely in the category less than 20$ each, possibly less than 15$. Make no mistake, the automotive industry is an extremely low margin field and Nvidia is a new player that tries to get contracts.
It is also high guaranteed volume over long periods, similarly to consoles, which explains their investment (of adapting a product that was already developed for the most part).

Fair points. The $350 is something I just threw in the air. I have no idea what they are making but if they are charging Audi $50 for most of the eco-system in that $3250 package, then I guess Audi is laughing all the way to the bank. I would have figured NV would have a much higher bargaining position since they do provide if not the class-leading infotainment systems today, then definitely in the top 3.

Automotive is part of NVIDIA's Tegra Processor business. I suspect that soon, automotive will be the vast majority of its Tegra Processor business (it was >50% last quarter, IIRC).

One possibility is that if one luxury maker starts to pull away significantly from its competitors, then the competitors would be more likely to try to catch up and surpass their competition. In that position, NV would be in the driver's seat to sell the latest Tegra chip to BMW, Porsche, Mercedes, Lexus, Audi as they all try to outdo each other. Of course NV cannot be expected to get all of those design wins but if they provide the total hardware+software eco-system in a very professional manner/interface (aka Audi products), it's going to be very difficult for other firms to compete. Knowing this though wouldn't the luxury automaker try to gain as much exclusivity as possible? It would be interesting to see what kind of contracts NV has in place and if NV is allowed to sell to anyone which would of course allow for far greater growth opportunities in the auto segment.

Also, they aren't just selling the Tegra chip but the entire modular platform:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqMLpPb-qr0

NV is also thinking more broadly long-term such as providing automakers with a tablet to be a device that connects the vehicle with the customer:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziU6Qpd3mZM

2016 BMW 7 series already has a tablet which doesn't rule out that tablets in cars will soon find their way to more affordable mid-tier and in 15+ years lower tier levels of cars. Lots of opportunity for new business.
 

ocre

Golden Member
Dec 26, 2008
1,594
7
81
Those are press articles about upcoming solutions which might or might not be adopted by the systems integrators. As far as I'm aware that specific Audi system we were talking about was developed in-house at Bosch GmbH, on QNX and with development tools from Rightware.


That is a standard demo that everyone in the industry does to showcase their plattform. I would be surprised if this is more than a couple thousand lines of hand-written code.

The first article isn't even about Nvidia and the second article is a press fanboy being hyped and not even doing a particularly good job at showcasing it.


Nvidia is growing in the automotive industry, no doubt, but there are a couple of players that have - or will shortly have - solutions ready to battle with Nvidia. For example Renesas with their new R-Car 2 plattform.

I am wondering what you are missing here. Are you just trying to argue?

Nvidia is not just selling chips. They are offering a service and solutions that differ from one customer to the next.

In the links, you missed the entire point. These are packages integrated into each customers vehicle. It's very different than selling chips for the nexus 7. They sell modules and integration. They aren't handing chips to an automotive customer and saying, here you go, that is not how they are getting business.

One of the links was about a module and dual tetra CPU solution. This design is unique to that customer based on their individual needs. The customer didn't come up with that on their own, nvidia is working very close with them to create a solution and technology unique to the customer. it seems you think that nvidia has nothing to do with the software or functions at all but hopefully you can understand that a dual CPU module is a solution from nvidia and not something the customer invented on their own.

Nvidia is not selling them a microchip. The success they are having is the result of a ton of work in HW and SW.

As far as what they might make per chip, right now they are spending loads in advancing in this area. They have teams working with a car manufacturer and building up their company for this area. They are betting this area will pay off well. It looks like it might but it is a much larger investment than you seem to think. A lot of work for each sale.

I don't think you understand exactly what they are doing in automotive. Some of the early stuff was only the beginning. They have taken it up several notches. What they are working on today are preproduction and not in vehicles yet. So money spent today will eventually pay off when these cars go into production. But the more customers they gain, it will cost them before they start making money. It could be awhile before these designs are mass produced. So it isn't easy to measure dollars at this point.
 

readers

Member
Oct 29, 2013
93
0
0
Do you all remember when AMD had a faster CPU AND a faster GPU? They were actually growing.

Now they have a weaker CPU AND a weaker GPU. Gee, I wonder why they aren't growing.

I am glad they have consoles, but this is still a huge drop from what they were doing. All I can say is good for Nvidia. Glad to see them doing well with their ingenuity!

Never ever happened, by the time they bought ATI, Intel was already way ahead of them in CPU and that hasn't changed since then.
 

readers

Member
Oct 29, 2013
93
0
0
I wouldn't conclude that GPU performance is hitting a wall. I think it's more to do with NV trying to find new avenues for growth.

Also, what NV doesn't like to release publicly is the units sold. They always talk about revenue growth and gross margin growth and increases in ASPs. All of these factors go hand-in-hand but what NV doesn't want people/investors to know is that the entire dGPU market is shrinking.

"According to Jon Peddie Research, total shipments of graphics cards in the Q1 2014 dropped to 14 million units"
http://www.kitguru.net/components/g...ics-cards-dropped-significantly-in-q2-report/

to this:

"PR recently found that around 12.4 million discrete desktop graphics adapters for desktop computers were shipped by various manufacturers in Q4 2014. [/B]"
http://www.kitguru.net/components/g...aphics-cards-drops-dramatically-in-q1-report/

and keeps getting worse:

"Shipments of graphics cards in the first quarter of 2015 decreased to 11.3 million units, an 8.79 per cent drop quarter over quarter and a 19.41 per cent drop year-over-year, according to Jon Peddie Research."
http://www.kitguru.net/components/g...-adapters-refocus-to-high-end-graphics-cards/

NV sees the trends - the discrete GPU market is in dramatic decline. As a result, they are doing everything possible to get gamers to buy $300-1000 graphics cards to make up for the loss of unit sales of the shrinking graphics card market. That's why we will see even more focus on higher ASPs (per die size), even more marketing towards highest end cards like 980Ti or upcoming 990M.

NV is trying to diversify into other segments (automotive) because they see these alarming trends in unit sales. And this doesn't touch how bad it's getting because in the past quarterly dGPU sales were 16-19 million units. That's why imho NV wanting to throw as many demanding GW features as possible and to obsolete older gen cards is a big incentive for them to get gamers to upgrade more often.



In fairness, you also laughed/ignored the idea that after-market 980Ti would beat Titan X out of the box for ~$700 as well as ignored how many of us projected AMD's 2nd best card, today known as Fury, to offer 87-89% of the performance of the reference Titan X at 4K. Both of those predictions came true and many gamers told you there was a high probability of both of these events coming true and yet you opposed either of these ideas defending your Titan X purchase. Therefore, I find it odd that you would try to mock someone publicly on AT for falsely predicting how Fury X didn't manage to beat the Titan X.



Fair points. The $350 is something I just threw in the air. I have no idea what they are making but if they are charging Audi $50 for most of the eco-system in that $3250 package, then I guess Audi is laughing all the way to the bank. I would have figured NV would have a much higher bargaining position since they do provide if not the class-leading infotainment systems today, then definitely in the top 3.



One possibility is that if one luxury maker starts to pull away significantly from its competitors, then the competitors would be more likely to try to catch up and surpass their competition. In that position, NV would be in the driver's seat to sell the latest Tegra chip to BMW, Porsche, Mercedes, Lexus, Audi as they all try to outdo each other. Of course NV cannot be expected to get all of those design wins but if they provide the total hardware+software eco-system in a very professional manner/interface (aka Audi products), it's going to be very difficult for other firms to compete. Knowing this though wouldn't the luxury automaker try to gain as much exclusivity as possible? It would be interesting to see what kind of contracts NV has in place and if NV is allowed to sell to anyone which would of course allow for far greater growth opportunities in the auto segment.

Also, they aren't just selling the Tegra chip but the entire modular platform:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqMLpPb-qr0

NV is also thinking more broadly long-term such as providing automakers with a tablet to be a device that connects the vehicle with the customer:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziU6Qpd3mZM

2016 BMW 7 series already has a tablet which doesn't rule out that tablets in cars will soon find their way to more affordable mid-tier and in 15+ years lower tier levels of cars. Lots of opportunity for new business.

Market size is always about revenue and profit, units are rather pointless when looked alone, profit is not.

Why are you comparing Fury/X to Titan X? It's completely pointless, In a world where after market 980ti can easily beat Titan X with cost similar to Fury X, it should be the benchmark for all high end GPU.
 
Last edited:

Piroko

Senior member
Jan 10, 2013
905
79
91
Nvidia is not just selling chips. They are offering a service and solutions that differ from one customer to the next.

In the links, you missed the entire point. These are packages integrated into each customers vehicle. It's very different than selling chips for the nexus 7. They sell modules and integration. They aren't handing chips to an automotive customer and saying, here you go, that is not how they are getting business.

One of the links was about a module and dual tetra CPU solution. This design is unique to that customer based on their individual needs. The customer didn't come up with that on their own, nvidia is working very close with them to create a solution and technology unique to the customer. it seems you think that nvidia has nothing to do with the software or functions at all but hopefully you can understand that a dual CPU module is a solution from nvidia and not something the customer invented on their own.

Nvidia is not selling them a microchip. The success they are having is the result of a ton of work in HW and SW.
I think there is an issue of misunderstanding, but it's not with me. Nvidia's contribution can also be supplying:
- an ARM core manual
- a SOC manual
- an electrical target specification
- a development board with corresponding manual
and that's it. In fact, that is the absolutely dominant way how stuff is bought in the automobile integrators' business. It is then combined with their preferred OS (Integrity, QNX, ...) and their preferred development environment.
Bosch, Continental and the lot have been designing custom solutions for the automotive industry for years. Those are the ones that sell modules and integration. Those are also the ones that have large hardware- and software development groups, think >1.000 engineers and programmers just to design and develop instrument clusters & infotainment systems.

As far as what they might make per chip, right now they are spending loads in advancing in this area. They have teams working with a car manufacturer and building up their company for this area. They are betting this area will pay off well. It looks like it might but it is a much larger investment than you seem to think. A lot of work for each sale.

I don't think you understand exactly what they are doing in automotive. Some of the early stuff was only the beginning. They have taken it up several notches. What they are working on today are preproduction and not in vehicles yet. So money spent today will eventually pay off when these cars go into production. But the more customers they gain, it will cost them before they start making money. It could be awhile before these designs are mass produced. So it isn't easy to measure dollars at this point.
Everyone has "teams of engineers" that work with the automotive industry.

And just to give a perspective of their current standpoint (and also possibly of their market growth opportunities):
They bragged over (finally) reaching 6.5 million cars with their SOCs. That is very likely a number of SOCs that Renesas sells in a quarter. Freescale is another large player. Both of them have full plattforms that cover low end to high end, whereas Nvidias current solution is likely too expensive to hit the volume market (both in SOC size and companion components that they need).
 

ocre

Golden Member
Dec 26, 2008
1,594
7
81
I think there is an issue of misunderstanding, but it's not with me. Nvidia's contribution can also be supplying:
- an ARM core manual
- a SOC manual
- an electrical target specification
- a development board with corresponding manual
and that's it. In fact, that is the absolutely dominant way how stuff is bought in the automobile integrators' business. It is then combined with their preferred OS (Integrity, QNX, ...) and their preferred development environment.
Bosch, Continental and the lot have been designing custom solutions for the automotive industry for years. Those are the ones that sell modules and integration. Those are also the ones that have large hardware- and software development groups, think >1.000 engineers and programmers just to design and develop instrument clusters & infotainment systems.


Everyone has "teams of engineers" that work with the automotive industry.

And just to give a perspective of their current standpoint (and also possibly of their market growth opportunities):
They bragged over (finally) reaching 6.5 million cars with their SOCs. That is very likely a number of SOCs that Renesas sells in a quarter. Freescale is another large player. Both of them have full plattforms that cover low end to high end, whereas Nvidias current solution is likely too expensive to hit the volume market (both in SOC size and companion components that they need).

Yeah,
Nvidia just hands them a tegra and an ARM manual.

haha
That would be funny if i though you were joking.

I am actually glad you included that second part because at least now we know why you keep saying this kind of stuff. Dont let your distaste cloud your better judgement. See, I would bet anything that nvidia is doing much better than you would have thought. They have most likely surpassed your expectations even though you still want to downplay their success.

But lets see here,
This is from 2013, nvidia has far expanded their automotive ambitions since then.

http://phys.org/news/2013-01-audi-globally-nvidia-tegra-visual.html
The innovative Audi MIB modular infotainment system introduces a new powerful computing module, MMX, which is based on the NVIDIA Tegra Visual Computing Module (VCM). The new MIB high-end system is currently available in Europe in the all-new Audi A3. Beginning with major markets in Asia, the system will reach further regions this year and come to the United States and Canada by 2014.

The connected Audi MIB system powers Audi connect, which enables live updates of Google Earth imagery complete with Google Maps Street View 360 degree panoramas. It also facilitates the delivery of other online information, such as real-time gas prices, weather forecasts and points of interest search powered by Google Local Search.

"The start of production of the Tegra-based MIB infotainment system was a major milestone for Audi," said Mathias Halliger, head of architecture, MMI system at Audi. "The new modular approach allows us an independent evolution of automotive-cycle and consumer-electronics-cycle multimedia systems so that we can implement the latest and greatest innovations that allow the best possible customer experience with infotainment in the vehicle."

I am sure Nvidia had nothing to do with Audi's MIB module that is based on Nvidia's own tegra Visual Computing Module.

At the heart of the MIB system is the NVIDIA VCM based on the NVIDIA Tegra mobile processor. The modular design of the VCM enables automakers to separate the rapidly advancing processor technologies from the slower to update electronics in vehicles. This can save automakers significant development time and cost by enabling rapid implementation of in-vehicle systems across diverse vehicle models.
"NVIDIA's modular VCM approach lets companies like Audi quickly move from a Tegra 2 processor, to a Tegra 3 and beyond," said Taner Ozcelik, general manager of automotive, NVIDIA. "Never before has an automaker been able to deliver a new generation of consumer electronics technology within such a short time."

Since then, there came the MIB2
Do you remember that nvidia PDF and youtube link? You said,
" Those are press articles about upcoming solutions which might or might not be adopted by the systems integrators"
"That is a standard demo that everyone in the industry does to showcase their plattform."

Why dont you take your time to look at this, from Audi

http://www.audiusa.com/newsroom/new...technology-virtual-cockpit-connected-car-expo

rendering up to 60 frames per second ensures that the needles of the speedometer, rev counter and navigation are displayed with absolute precision.
Sound familiar? I heard something like that before.....

better yet, look at the pictures
http://www.autobytel.com/car-owners...-mib-2-technology-and-virtual-cockpit-127063/

But if you are still not convinced, you are gonna have a hard time denouncing this one:
http://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2015/04/21/pace-award-tegra-vcm/

but they got to be lying, right.....

http://www.autonews.com/Assets/html/pace_award/past_winners.html
there they are, the 10th one down in the 2015 segment.

Go on and click on it, have a read......

or, let me quote exactly what they say
Automakers are being challenged by the pace of consumer electronics innovation that is setting performance benchmarks and raising the level of expectation of car buying consumers for in-car infotainment and driver display systems. Consumers want systems where there is hardware upgradability, software upgradability and scalability. NVIDIA developed the TEGRA-X1 (World’s First Terra FLOPS Mobile Processor) Visual Computing Module (VCM) to deliver the benefit of hardware & software platforms to a wide base of automotive vehicles. The automotive-grade module features a TEGRA processor and all the computing components that enable automakers to better match the visual graphics capability, speed of performance and software update experience that the consumers have with Smart Phones.

Sounds nothing like they are handing them a chip and and ARM manual.

These things that are just now out are nothing. Nvidia has taken it up several notches to much bigger things like automation. They arent just selling tegra chips. It blows my mind that someone would continue to try to argue that.

http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2014/01/09/nvidia-fuels-supercomputing-power-car/

The Tegra K1 features a quad-core CPU and a 192-core GPU using the NVIDIA Kepler architecture, the basis for NVIDIA’s range of powerful GPUs. It will drive camera-based, advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) – including pedestrian detection, blind-spot monitoring, lane-departure warning and street sign recognition — and can also monitor driver alertness via a dashboard-mounted camera.

the reason for that link is this quote, straight from audi
“Audi and NVIDIA engineers work closely together to develop hardware and software that truly delight customers,” said Mathias Halliger, chief architect of Infotainment Systems at Audi. “With the flexible VCM platform, we are able to quickly bring to market a new generation of Tegra-based infotainment systems, as well as an integrated mobile computer, matching the rapid cadence of the consumer electronics industry.”
 
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