Originally posted by: K1052
Originally posted by: Lemon law
(3) And need I remind some of you that supported the Iraq war that it once had a 90% US approval rating. So much for the infallible judgment of the American people, now that the new has worn off our lovely myths, the grim reality that our judgments of reality were initially flawed, and that winning the war militarily is worthless if the hearts and minds of the occupied are not won very rapidly.
Being a person who never supported the Iraq war I would fully support strikes on terrorist targets inside northern Pakistan who are operating across the border as absolutely crucial to the stabilization of Afghanistan. Pakistan has had years and lots of money/aid thrown at it to resolve the problem but has been unable or unwilling because of their relatively chaotic domestic situation. They are obviously upset about this because it exposes how weak their state is.
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While K1052 does make a semi valid point, the tribal areas of Pakistan have always been way out their in left field, very different than the rest of Pakistan, and somewhat of a land that time forgot. And certainly not a priority for a larger Pakistan who wants to regard it as a semi autonomous region.
It would be like judging the US by the internal politics of Puerto Rico or Guam, or even the areas now controlled in Florida by recent Cuban immigrants. The dominant point is that the larger Pakistan does not find any appeal in the message of either the Taliban or Al-Quida, and just like the US government has a South Florida policy instead of a real Cuban policy, cynical US politicians do play them like pawns. And in the similar ways the Taliban is used by Pakistan.
But to understand Afghanistan, we really have to go back to the Russian invasion and Reagan arming groups of terrorists, some of which later became Al-Quida.
The problem is that once the Russians left, so did Reagan, and Afghanistan was thrown into a civil war in which corruption and anarchy became the norm. And the rise of the Taliban was not in the popular appeal of Sharia law, but in the fact that they were better alternative to corruption and anarchy. And we alos lose sight of the fact that its Al-Quida, not the Taliban that attacked us on 911.
And we should also note, while the Afghan civil war was raging, the tribal areas of Pakistan largely escaped the anrchy and corruption. But more about that later.
But after 911, there was hell to pay, and the Taliban leadership unwisely interposed themselves between the USA and Al-Quida. But if GWB had been more patient, there is some evidence that the Taliban leadership might have relented and given us Bin Laden and Al-Quida.
But GWB instead took out his can of instant whipass, used too small of a force, and made a fatal blunder that plagues us still. And while the revisionist history is that 300 of our special forces chased all of the Taliban out of Afghanistan, the real muscle was provided by the Northern alliance, the losing side in the Afghan civil war, and the very rascals who the Afghan people hated as so corrupt, that they made the Taliban look good. And as Nato and the Northern alliance chased the last of the Taliban into the tribal areas of Pakistan, the Northern alliance re set up shop
as corruption central, and with too few troops, Afghanistan reverted into the same state of anarchy and corruption it was in two decades ago. And has made very little progress since. And guess what, the Taliban is back and many look at them to be the cure Nato is not providing.
Worse yet, Nato is not doing the smart thing, namely to drive a wedge between Al-Quida and the Taliban who have totally different objectives. And instead we drive them together.
Which sets up the following. Nato is too weak to drive out the Taliban who is, in fact, gaining ground in Afghanistan. And the Taliban is too weak to drive Nato out, but the Taliban thrives in conditions of anarchy and corruption and Nato does nothing to address the anarchy and corruption it created with an occupation on the cheap.
Meanwhile the Taliban driven into Pakistan are ethnically indistinguishable from the native tribes. But as guests, cannot play the Sharia law card, because the tribal areas are not at war with each other, and corruption and anarchy do not flourish. So they have to be somewhat on their best behavior or they will alienate their hosts. Meanwhile the Taliban network extend into all the Northern Stans and they also can bring in money and foreign fighters from States in the Mid-East. But one thing for sure, the people of the Tribal areas are 100% in opposition to Nato incursions onto Pakistani soil.
But how critical these fighters are to the Taliban resistance in Afghanistan is somewhat greatly over blown. Very few supplies can be carried in on their backs,
blockading them at the border is a better alternative, and there is now enough popular Afghan support for them to hide in plain sight in Afghanistan.
Now suppose we buy into this magic bullet plan of Nato unilaterally invading the Tribal areas of Pakistan.
With military might and air support, Nato could start in the Southern end of the Tribal areas and march its troops right up to the borders of the Northern Stans
with the Taliban somewhat powerless to resist. Blowing up houses and villages as they go, and just generally creating chaos and anarchy. And do we envision that the Taliban, finally chased like rats, will finally be cornered, with no place to run, and be finally be forced to stand and fight, AK-47's against 2000 thousand pound bombs and helicopter gunships able to hose the entire area up? And thereafter, the world, rid of Al-Quida and the Taliban, shall be instant paradise on earth. The things comic books and hollywoods scripts are made off, complete with the they lived happily ever after.
But let me offer an alternative hypothesis. While the world condemns the barbarity of indiscriminate Nato air power, Nato could put their boots on the ground, some Taliban would simply take off the T's off their turbins and watch as Nato marches by, others would simply slip back into loosely guarded Afghanistan, others would
slip into the Stans to the North, while the entire tribal area population would be taking pot shots at Nato troops every step of the way. Meanwhile the tribal areas of Pakistan could also become an epi center of anarchy and corruption, ideal conditions for terrorists, while Taliban and Al-Quida recruitment would go way way up. As for the modern parts of Pakistan, Al-Quida and the Taliban would gain ground there also.
And yes, the modern Pakistani government does not have much unity, but its still something they will have to work out themselves.
Trust me, we can't make things better by invading the tribal areas, but we can sure make things worse.