Obama winning in Iowa?!

[ProfJohn]

There seems to be several polls that show Obama leading in Iowa. On top of that Obama should have as much, if not more, money that Hillary.

Could this two things change the dynamic of the race?
A victory in Iowa would be a HUGE boost to Obama and would seriously hurt Hillary and the ?inevitability? of her nomination.

What does everyone else thing?

 

[StageLeft]

I think hopefully Obama wins at this point.

 

[Whoozyerdaddy]

It's always nice to win out of the gate but it didn't hurt Clinton to lose the first couple of primaries when he was running for his first term. IIRC McCain won Iowa against Dubbya as well. (Maybe it was NH?)

Anyway. It'll be a positive stroke for Obama to pull that off but I don't see it as a crippling event for Hill. She's not going to win every state in the primary race anyway. But she'll probably win enough of them.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Hillary will still win the primary, lose the election because she won't convince most outside of the NE and CA to vote for her in the general election. Rudy will probably beat the 9/11 terrorist thing to death and win the Rep nomination because the Reps haven't a good candidate either. That means Rudy who sucks incredibly will be next President and we'll have worse than we did in the last 8 years.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider
Hillary will still win the primary, lose the election because she won't convince most outside of the NE and CA to vote for her in the general election. Rudy will probably beat the 9/11 terrorist thing to death and win the Rep nomination because the Reps haven't a good candidate either. That means Rudy who sucks incredibly will be next President and we'll have worse than we did in the last 8 years.

Ugh, this is really possible and I so hope not, but it's very possible. The only part of your post that goes beyond conjecture to total, undeniable fact (and also the worst part to be fact, sadly) is how awful Rudy would be as a president. I think he'd be a travesty, a train wreck of a train carrying chemical weapons.

 

[nageov3t]

if Obama doesn't win or at least come in second in Iowa, he's finished.

same for Edwards.

I think Hillary could shrug it off, though, and pick up New Hampshire... her network in NH is certainly stronger than in Iowa, on account of the fact that Bill never ran in Iowa (skipped it in '92 because a senator or governor or something from Iowa was running, and then he was the incumbent in '06). I'd imagine that if she lost Iowa, the media would be all over itself making comparisons to Bill's '92 campaign, an association which could only help her.

I think, barring any major changes, the D race will come down to Hillary vs Obama or Edwards, whoever performs best in Iowa. hopefully Obama... Edwards is probably the only democratic candidate that I'd almost 100% not vote for.

 

[StageLeft]

same for Edwards

Edwards has been dead for a while. He's a total non-issue in this election. He cannot even get enough funds himself and is going to the public coffers. He's totally underwhelming. He's so patently boring and non-consequential that even writing about him literally tires me and makes me want to go to bed.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

same for Edwards

Edwards has been dead for a while. He's a total non-issue in this election. He cannot even get enough funds himself and is going to the public coffers. He's totally underwhelming. He's so patently boring and non-consequential that even writing about him literally tires me and makes me want to go to bed.

he's within a hair of Obama in Iowa and beating Hillary there, according to the last poll I looked at.

Obama's probably coming into Iowa with more pre-existing infrastructure than either of them, though, what with coming from a neighbor state.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: Whoozyerdaddy
It's always nice to win out of the gate but it didn't hurt Clinton to lose the first couple of primaries when he was running for his first term. IIRC McCain won Iowa against Dubbya as well. (Maybe it was NH?)

Anyway. It'll be a positive stroke for Obama to pull that off but I don't see it as a crippling event for Hill. She's not going to win every state in the primary race anyway. But she'll probably win enough of them.

It's all about expectations. Bill Clinton skipped and lost Iowa and the media didn't care because Harkin was running. This time around, no one is really expecting any challenge to Hillary's inevitable nomination.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: Skoorb

same for Edwards

Edwards has been dead for a while. He's a total non-issue in this election. He cannot even get enough funds himself and is going to the public coffers. He's totally underwhelming. He's so patently boring and non-consequential that even writing about him literally tires me and makes me want to go to bed.

he's within a hair of Obama in Iowa and beating Hillary there, according to the last poll I looked at.

Obama's probably coming into Iowa with more pre-existing infrastructure than either of them, though, what with coming from a neighbor state.

Not even close. Edwards opened up shop in Iowa in 2003 and has never really left.

 

[Lemon law]

My personal feeling is that the big three of Hillary, Edwards, and Obama will battle it out well into the 2008 primary season. I don't see any of them dropping out early and future events may well decide the democratic nomination. I also view front loading of primaries as not wise for either party.

But thats just a gut feeling not based on anything but gut feelings. The country is fairly sure that GWB has it wrong and beyond that nothing else is clear. And this year, the person that puts together a coalition in congress to break the gridlock may have the inside track.

 

[ProfJohn]

Sooner or later Obama and Edwards are going to have to really go after Hillary.
That is where things will start to get interesting.

Hillary is not a great candidate nor does she have a lot of experience as a candidate. Nor is she charming in any way shape or form.

A lot of people think Hillary is going to be Bill part 2 so that is where her opponents need to attack her at. Show people that she isn?t Bill Clinton and that she doesn?t have the ability or skills of him as a politician. Follow that up by attacking her flip-flops and her attempt to be everything to everyone.

Don?t know if this will be enough to help someone else win, but it would most likely be the only chance they have. As things are going now she will win easily.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
My personal feeling is that the big three of Hillary, Edwards, and Obama will battle it out well into the 2008 primary season. I don't see any of them dropping out early and future events may well decide the democratic nomination. I also view front loading of primaries as not wise for either party.

But thats just a gut feeling not based on anything but gut feelings. The country is fairly sure that GWB has it wrong and beyond that nothing else is clear. And this year, the person that puts together a coalition in congress to break the gridlock may have the inside track.

Clinton and Obama have the organization -- from different sources -- to keep pushing on through the primary season. Edwards is pretty much betting the farm on Iowa...

 

[Whoozyerdaddy]

Bah... Much ado about nothng aparently... there is only one poll showing Obama winning in Iowa. Every other poll has Hill winning.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cratic_caucus-208.html

Iowa seems to be the closest of the states... all the rest show her winning big.

 

[Hacp]

Hillary needs to win in order to unite our country. Obama and Edwards are too far to the left. We don't need another far left Candidate, we need someone who will steal the independents and moderate republicans from the Republican Party, forever!

 

[chowderhead]

Iowa caucuses are probably one of the hardest elections to poll. First, you have to identify likely voters. Voters who will have to spend 1+ hour in some school house somewhere on a night when it may snow or rain. Within a caucus, you have to publicly declare your preference for candidate. After that, there may be horse trading as people can and do shift around from one candidate to another. So having a 4% lead or a 2% lead or whatever 3-4 months out means almost nothing. Having said that the average of the polling show that Hillary Clinton is creeping upwards in Iowa while Edwards is flat or dropped a bit. Still, I think if Clinton wins Iowa, she will parlay that into a win in NH where her lead is solid and also NV and then win in SC. I believe someone needs to beat her in Iowa or else she will win the nomination.

 

[Whoozyerdaddy]

Originally posted by: Hacp
Hillary needs to win in order to unite our country. Obama and Edwards are too far to the left. We don't need another far left Candidate, we need someone who will steal the independents and moderate republicans from the Republican Party, forever!

You think Hill will unite the country? She's the single more polarizing national political figure in a loooong time. How does that work? Drugs'r bad mmmkay... :laugh:

 

[Pabster]

Obama might pull a coup on Billary yet. He's solidly ahead here in Iowa.

3Q financials should be out any day now. If he's managed to outraise her again (this would be 3 consecutive quarters) she is in big trouble.

 

[BoberFett]

Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider
Hillary will still win the primary, lose the election because she won't convince most outside of the NE and CA to vote for her in the general election. Rudy will probably beat the 9/11 terrorist thing to death and win the Rep nomination because the Reps haven't a good candidate either. That means Rudy who sucks incredibly will be next President and we'll have worse than we did in the last 8 years.

God/Allah/Vishnu help us.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: Whoozyerdaddy
Bah... Much ado about nothng aparently... there is only one poll showing Obama winning in Iowa. Every other poll has Hill winning.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cratic_caucus-208.html

Iowa seems to be the closest of the states... all the rest show her winning big.

I think the ado is about Hillary's cake walk to the White House being not as inevitable as everyone thought...

 

[b0mbrman]

Maybe the important question to ask is how well was John Kerry doing nationwide before he won Iowa? Did it give him any kind of boost at all?

I'm curious as to the effect that an Iowa win could have on voters in other states...

 

[nageov3t]

I'm a total Hillary fanboy to the core, but I think most of us would be just as happy with Obama in the end.

I think either would make a good president, I just trust the Clinton machine more in a national election.

 

[Hacp]

Originally posted by: Whoozyerdaddy

Originally posted by: Hacp
Hillary needs to win in order to unite our country. Obama and Edwards are too far to the left. We don't need another far left Candidate, we need someone who will steal the independents and moderate republicans from the Republican Party, forever!

You think Hill will unite the country? She's the single more polarizing national political figure in a loooong time. How does that work? Drugs'r bad mmmkay... :laugh:

Hillary did far more uniting in New York than Rudy ever did.

 

[palehorse]

I might still vote for Obama... I just hope the Dems are smart enough to give him the nomination!

If it comes down to Obama vs. Thompson, I think the debates and last 3 months of the race will settle the matter for me...

 

[umbrella39]

Originally posted by: loki8481
I'm a total Hillary fanboy to the core..

I have never actually heard anyone profess this before. You've got some stones. Have yet to decide how I will vote in the primaries myself...