Obama winning in Iowa?!

[Whoozyerdaddy]

Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Maybe the important question to ask is how well was John Kerry doing nationwide before he won Iowa? Did it give him any kind of boost at all?

I'm curious as to the effect that an Iowa win could have on voters in other states...

That's true too... they were ready to crown Dean until Kerry won Iowa.

But like I said before... Obama is only ahead in one out of four recent polls. RCP has Clinton ahead in its poll average by 3.5 points. Obama is not leading in Iowa as the OP would suggest.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: loki8481
I'm a total Hillary fanboy to the core

Seek professional help

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Pabster

Originally posted by: loki8481
I'm a total Hillary fanboy to the core

Seek professional help

I don't know what it is about the gay gene that makes us admire strong women that straight men see as bitches, ice queens, etc

Joan Collins, Bette Davis, Madonna, Rosie, etc all get a bit :thumbsup: from me.

 

[yllus]

Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider
Hillary will still win the primary, lose the election because she won't convince most outside of the NE and CA to vote for her in the general election. Rudy will probably beat the 9/11 terrorist thing to death and win the Rep nomination because the Reps haven't a good candidate either. That means Rudy who sucks incredibly will be next President and we'll have worse than we did in the last 8 years.

Very realistic and thus very depressing.

 

[Fern]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
There seems to be several polls that show Obama leading in Iowa. On top of that Obama should have as much, if not more, money that Hillary.

Could this two things change the dynamic of the race?
A victory in Iowa would be a HUGE boost to Obama and would seriously hurt Hillary and the ?inevitability? of her nomination.

What does everyone else thing?

I think it just means Edwards would be toast.

HRC is in it for the long haul.

I would like to see Obama win the primary, but suspect that HRC will.

I have yet to see even one campaign ad. I think that those are likely more important than the debates, if only because so few watch them (not to mention the vague answers, mostly generalizations and platitudes). I'm not sure what they're doing with all their primary money. I suppose advertising somewhere else?

Fern

 

[Moonbeam]

Originally posted by: yllus

Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider
Hillary will still win the primary, lose the election because she won't convince most outside of the NE and CA to vote for her in the general election. Rudy will probably beat the 9/11 terrorist thing to death and win the Rep nomination because the Reps haven't a good candidate either. That means Rudy who sucks incredibly will be next President and we'll have worse than we did in the last 8 years.

Very realistic and thus very depressing.

I can't bring myself to believe we could be that stupid. Also I can't yet bring myself to have such a low opinion of Guiliani. Maybe I live in a fantasy bubble.

 

[palehorse]

Hillary winning the nomination would be the worst thing to ever happen to the Democratic party... and the GOP is counting on that!

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Fern

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
There seems to be several polls that show Obama leading in Iowa. On top of that Obama should have as much, if not more, money that Hillary.

Could this two things change the dynamic of the race?
A victory in Iowa would be a HUGE boost to Obama and would seriously hurt Hillary and the ?inevitability? of her nomination.

What does everyone else thing?

I think it just means Edwards would be toast.

HRC is in it for the long haul.

I would like to see Obama win the primary, but suspect that HRC will.

I have yet to see even one campaign ad. I think that those are likely more important than the debates, if only because so few watch them (not to mention the vague answers, mostly generalizations and platitudes). I'm not sure what they're doing with all their primary money. I suppose advertising somewhere else?

Fern

Because North Carolina isn't important as far as the primary schedule is concerned.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Pabster
Obama might pull a coup on Billary yet. He's solidly ahead here in Iowa.

3Q financials should be out any day now. If he's managed to outraise her again (this would be 3 consecutive quarters) she is in big trouble.

announced today... Clinton out-raised Obama by about 8 mil.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: loki8481
announced today... Clinton out-raised Obama by about 8 mil.

Saw that. So does this now make her nomination inevitable?

Or will the fact that Obama still has a 2+ million dollar advantage in total primary dollars and (arguably) more donors who can give (as they haven't given the maximum donation) allow him to keep the heat on and make Billary sweat?

 

[1EZduzit]

What I think doesn't matter much since my state is the last one in the nation to hold their primaries, but if it came down to us deciding between Hillary and Obama, I'm pretty sure we would go for Obama. I know I would.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Pabster

Originally posted by: loki8481
announced today... Clinton out-raised Obama by about 8 mil.

Saw that. So does this now make her nomination inevitable?

Or will the fact that Obama still has a 2+ million dollar advantage in total primary dollars and (arguably) more donors who can give (as they haven't given the maximum donation) allow him to keep the heat on and make Billary sweat?

god willing

but it's still too early to call, especially with the insane methodology behind caucuses. it could be a repeat of '04 where they elect the candidate that they (wrongly) think is most electable over the candidate that's leading in the polling / fund raising.

on the other hand, the '04 Iowa primary seemed atypical in that the media more or less destroyed Dean's candidacy before the night was out thanks to the non-scream scream that was never really properly reported, and the extra cash gives Hillary an advantage in the larger states... but if Hillary loses Iowa, she has to win NH.

my dream ticket is Hillary/Obama... I think Obama has VP written all over him, and he can step forward in 4-8 years with a little more experience under his belt and sweep into the white house... but I'd be just as happy voting for Obama/Richardson.

anyone but Edwards, really, is my feeling on the democratic primary.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: loki8481
anyone but Edwards, really, is my feeling on the democratic primary.

Obama is the only Democrat I could ever vote for. I disagree nearly 100% with him on just about everything, but he's ran a clean campaign and - particularly next to filth like Hillary - that stands for something. I think Bill's recent attacks on him vis-a-vi experience show just how formidable of an opponent he has become.

 

[piasabird]

Yahoo. It will make Hillary mad with envy.

In the grand scheme of things it is only one primary. Lets see who wins in Illinois and California and New York. You have to check the states with the most population and his home state. Often candidates do well in one state and fizzle out or run out of campaign funds.

I do not think I could trust Obama to vote for the USA with his father having close ties to a muslim country. Can we really trust him to stand up for the average American Voter? He may not be a practicing Muslim, but he may have an affinity for Muslim people because of his heritage and background. It is a lot to take a chance on.

If I had to choose between Hillary and Obama, I think I would vote Hillary.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: piasabird

I do not think I could trust Obama to vote for the USA with his father having close ties to a muslim country. Can we really trust him to stand up for the average American Voter? He may not be a practicing Muslim, but he may have an affinity for Muslim people because of his heritage and background. It is a lot to take a chance on.

I imagine that once the voting populace becomes educated, this won't be an issue

 

[Jamie571]

Originally posted by: Pabster

Originally posted by: loki8481
anyone but Edwards, really, is my feeling on the democratic primary.

Obama is the only Democrat I could ever vote for. I disagree nearly 100% with him on just about everything, but he's ran a clean campaign and - particularly next to filth like Hillary - that stands for something. I think Bill's recent attacks on him vis-a-vi experience show just how formidable of an opponent he has become.

I like the way Obama has run his campain as well. He appears and sounds more intelligent than any of the other candiates in the debates. Hillary, and many agree with me on this, doesnt seem down to earth or ginuine.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Jamie571

Originally posted by: Pabster

Originally posted by: loki8481
anyone but Edwards, really, is my feeling on the democratic primary.

Obama is the only Democrat I could ever vote for. I disagree nearly 100% with him on just about everything, but he's ran a clean campaign and - particularly next to filth like Hillary - that stands for something. I think Bill's recent attacks on him vis-a-vi experience show just how formidable of an opponent he has become.

I like the way Obama has run his campain as well. He appears and sounds more intelligent than any of the other candiates in the debates. Hillary, and many agree with me on this, doesnt seem down to earth or ginuine.

on the other hand, the way he's running his campaign is also hurting him.

he can't run any negative ads without tarnishing his reputation, which really ties his hands when it comes to trying to take Hill down a peg or two. he's been trying to go about it the nice way for the past couple months and it's had pretty much no impact.

 

[dmcowen674]

OP needs to change thread Title...

10-7-2007 Iowa poll puts Clinton atop

NEW HAMPTON, Iowa - Hillary Rodham Clinton has taken the lead among Democratic presidential candidates in an Iowa poll, an encouraging sign of progress toward overcoming a big hurdle in the race.

 

[EagleKeeper]

There is only ONE poll in Iowa that will matter.

Everything else is just seeing who has the most hot air.

Seeing how Hillary wants to be declared the front runner, she will have to win by a large amount or it will be considered a loss.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
OP needs to change thread Title...

10-7-2007 Iowa poll puts Clinton atop

NEW HAMPTON, Iowa - Hillary Rodham Clinton has taken the lead among Democratic presidential candidates in an Iowa poll, an encouraging sign of progress toward overcoming a big hurdle in the race.

Notice the question mark in the thread title?

I knew this was going to happen, so I phrased the title that way

 

[Lemon law]

Yawn, maybe the OP needs to get a little neon sign that reflects current polling for each of the 90 remaining days until the first real votes are cast. Save a lot of thread title changing that way. More like a daily stock report, including who seems to be bullish and who is tanking.

At any time external events could completely change the picture with some candidates benefiting and others losing because their candidacy bet on the wrong horse.

Yawn, wake me up in about 2.5 months and I might get excited about Iowa. The candidates have campaign managers to worry about such things. Meanwhile I am more undecided about deciding which of the various Republicans and democrats are the biggest idiots. All of them are running strong in that arena.

 

[jonks]

Originally posted by: EagleKeeper
There is only ONE poll in Iowa that will matter.

Everything else is just seeing who has the most hot air.

Seeing how Hillary wants to be declared the front runner, she will have to win by a large amount or it will be considered a loss.

Gotta disagree. First off, the Iowa race has been tight for months, so by your judgment that she has to win by a large amount, that's probably already not possible. Iowa isn't that big a deal for Hillary as long as she makes a decent showing. Unless she loses by a large margin, it won't matter. Iowa could provide momentum for the competition, and the consensus I've been reading seems to be that Obama has to win or he is likely out of it, because NH is where Hillary is expected to blow everyone away. Don't forget she leads in the national polls by like 20 points already.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Practicality does not equal perception.

Hillary has been trumpting for months that she is the one and only that the Dems should choose.

If she does not prove that with Iowa, it will create the perception that she may be vulnerable.

If she shows weakness in the heartland it can be a concern.
Winning in NH (next door to MA- the liberal bastion) MAY not prove as much.

If other Dem candidates have the money to stay in the race for a while, Clinton will have to show that she is acceptable outside the liberal strongholds.

 

[nageov3t]

still gotta disagree with eagle.

Iowa only really matters for Obama and Edwards... whoever comes in last is basically dead in the water.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: loki8481
still gotta disagree with eagle.

Iowa only really matters for Obama and Edwards... whoever comes in last is basically dead in the water.

No, Iowa matters to Hillary because so many people like you say it doesn't matter.

If she loses Iowa, it's a huge news story because no one would have anticipated her running into speed bumps