Specifically, CBO reported in March 2012 that its average underlying annual rate of growth in private insurance premiums for the period 2012 to 2022 was 5.7 percent; CBO further indicated that the average growth rate for this period was approximately 0.8 percentage points below the growth rate used in its March 2011 projections, implying that the average growth rate in those earlier projections had been around 6.5 percent. CBO had previously indicated that the assumptions used in its March 2011 projections were similar to those used in its original estimates of the ACA.
On that basis, ASPE used a trend rate of 6.5 percent to trend CBO’s projection for 2016 forward to 2017 and estimated that CBO’s November 2009 estimate of the national average premium for the second-lowest cost Marketplace silver plan in 2017 was around $5,538. For comparison, ASPE estimates that the weighted average premium for single coverage under the second-lowest cost silver plan will be $5,586 in the HealthCare.gov states in 2017, assuming that the age and geographic distribution of 2017 plan selections matches distribution of 2016 plan selections.