Odds of Biden stepping down, being replaced. Choose.

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MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,997
20,236
136
She'll need to pick an appropriate white male preferably from a rust belt state to counterbalance her Californianess.

My pick would be Josh Shapiro, the current governor of Pennsylvania. He's experienced, popular, has won statewide elections, and PA is a must win.
Agreed, I was chatting about this with my friend last night when I realized it had to be Harris. Her VP pick is going to be very important, and has to be a white dude.
 
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repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
4,544
3,471
136
Right. No one "knows" anything. Harris just has huge demographic issues (and political ones) that Biden does not.
Hard to imagine a bigger political issue than four years of Biden has dementia propaganda that he decided to validate in front of 50 million people and that is going to dominate news coverage for weeks or months. Harris is at least all there and the Dems should be able to make the claim that they put someone forward who can do the job.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,884
34,847
136
FWIW on the R side their biggest concern now is that the Dems will make a change and are discussing likely futile legal challenges to try to stop it.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
11,846
8,446
136
Hard to imagine a bigger political issue than four years of Biden has dementia propaganda that he decided to validate in front of 50 million people and that is going to dominate news coverage for weeks or months. Harris is at least all there and the Dems should be able to make the claim that they put someone forward who can do the job.

She has a vagina and isn't white. Those two will make it so large swaths of the population will never vote for her. She has never won anything outside of the state of CA.

And the same issue listed above for Biden is like the 38th biggest reason not to vote for his opponent. We're judging by two different standards, and it's the reason why Ds always lose. They don't fight.
 
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Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
10,452
7,063
136
I do agree here. He could hang his hat on stopping what could have been dark road for the US to take and urge people to get fired up to vote. He could be brutally honest, admit he is having some issues, and go out with the support from an entire nation. (most people will be affected by something like this or have had the pleasure of caring for an individual fighting for their life - if that is indeed what may be inflicting him)

I disagree on Harris only because she really doesn't have the 'it' factor, not sure wtf it is. At the same time, I don't have any rationale alternatives, it's really a shit pool of people all the way through. Every last one of them is a scumbag on both sides and we'll be voting 'for the lesser evil' till the whole thing goes bust. I don't even know why we need 'representatives' anymore. Just go to a popular vote on everything and let everyone vote on their smart phones. You could even hire a good dev team from something like pornhub to verify everything and make sure its legit.

We should just hire a real actor from Hollywood them and tell them this is going to be their most important job of their life. We could just pay them to act like a real president.


We would be in good hands with Palmer at the helm.

Harris will absolutely lose. She'd probably do a good job, but she won't win a general.

I think we're at the point where anyone but Jon Stewart is a loss! It's literally a look at what the dems have done over the past 4 years now. They need an outsider -- a real outsider like Trump was in 2016!
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,447
7,386
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Right. No one "knows" anything. Harris just has huge demographic issues (and political ones) that Biden does not.
Any replacement ideas need to be centered around what is practical with regards to accessing money already raised and maintaining campaign field offices that have already been set up. They can't just be copy-pasted to any candidate.

There is also the idea of legitimacy: it would be bad to wipe the top of the slate clean and leave it to the delegates to fight over who should be the nominee. First, legitimacy largely derives from the primary voting, which has already passed. Second, ejecting the black woman from the ticket wouldn't go well with some core constituencies of the Democratic Party. And third, any Democratic candidate is going to have to have to own the doings of the Biden Administration (running a campaign of "not Biden" is probably a nonstarter for the general public, since Trump (R) already owns that corner). IMO, the best way forward would be to have someone from the administration (in this case, the VP) lead that future ticket to campaign on continuing the work that has been started.
 
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Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
11,846
8,446
136
Any replacement ideas need to be centered around what is practical with regards to accessing money already raised and maintaining campaign field offices that have already been set up. They can't just be copy-pasted to any candidate.

There is also the idea of legitimacy: it would be bad to wipe the top of the slate clean and leave it to the delegates to fight over who should be the nominee. First, legitimacy largely derives from the primary voting, which has already passed. Second, ejecting the black woman from the ticket wouldn't go well with some core constituencies of the Democratic Party. And third, any Democratic candidate is going to have to have to own the doings of the Biden Administration (running a campaign of "not Biden" is probably a nonstarter for the general public, since Trump (R) already owns that corner). IMO, the best way forward would be to have someone from the administration (in this case, the VP) lead that future ticket to campaign on continuing the work that has been started.

Yes. My understanding is that any $$$ currently in the campaign can only be used by Biden/Harris. So it limits your options.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,997
20,236
136
Biden has tarnished his legacy but the sooner he steps down the more of it he can save. Hopefully right now they are just figuring out how to transition to a Harris campaign and the best ways to do it right.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,447
7,386
136
Yes. My understanding is that any $$$ currently in the campaign can only be used by Biden/Harris. So it limits your options.
Yes, but besides that, the other points are also important. Letting it rip at the convention would be the worst option, because you'll just be left with bruised egos and even weaker links between the constituencies of the party.

Plus, a lot of the candidate ideas floated (assuming complete slate wipe) are people that may not be well tested at the national level. Head-to-head polling between "known quantity" Trump and "relatively unknown" [Insert Democrat] is a poor guide, and without substantial spotlights on some of them, who knows what skeletons could come falling out as a last minute surprise.
 
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repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
4,544
3,471
136
She has a vagina and isn't white. Those two will make it so large swaths of the population will never vote for her. She has never won anything outside of the state of CA.

And the same issue listed above for Biden is like the 38th biggest reason not to vote for his opponent. We're judging by two different standards, and it's the reason why Ds always lose. They don't fight.
Yeah, Biden sure as hell doesn’t fight anymore, there we can agree. He proved it on Thursday.

I am a Biden fan but he has seriously managed to piss me off by running again and putting the country that I’ll be stuck in for 50 years at risk. I can barely tolerate working with people >65 at my regular job, why don’t these old fucks know when to step aside.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,884
34,847
136
Yes, but besides that, the other points are also important. Letting it rip at the convention would be the worst option, because you'll just be left with bruised egos and even weaker links between the constituencies of the party.

Plus, a lot of the candidate ideas floated (assuming complete slate wipe) are people that may not be well tested at the national level. Head-to-head polling between "known quantity" Trump and "relatively unknown" [Insert Democrat] is a poor guide, and without substantial spotlights on some of them, who knows what skeletons could come falling out as a last minute surprise.

Yeah she's vetted and the only person in position to take over the top of the ticket for so many practical and political reasons. Anybody who says there should be an open convention should be locked in a basement until November.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,447
7,386
136
I see many viable paths forward here, but I still maintain that this is a largely media-driven narrative that is the culmination of the years of "Is Biden Too Old?" reporting (and potential bitterness over the loss of access journalism in a prior White House that leaked like a sieve), and political elites of the Democratic Party making numerous fatal errors over the past few years. (Don't get me wrong, it was a bad debate showing for sure, but it really does seem like a one-off. Biden sat for an interview with Stern ~1.5 months prior, and the clips and speeches post-debate have seemed fine. Never mind the whole "being able to debate" is not really a necessity for POTUS in day-to-day things).

Where are the Senate hearings on SCOTUS corruption? Why did Garland take so long to have Trump charged? Where is the singular focus on Trump's mental health and the Republican party's desire to burn down our Republic in the name of power?
 
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Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
11,846
8,446
136
Yeah, Biden sure as hell doesn’t fight anymore, there we can agree. He proved it on Thursday.

I am a Biden fan but he has seriously managed to piss me off by running again and putting the country that I’ll be stuck in for 50 years at risk. I can barely tolerate working with people >65 at my regular job, why don’t these old fucks know when to step aside.

I wasn't singling out Biden, more the party in general. They are weak, they push back with wonky policy points (that the electorate largely doesn't understand or care about), and insist on playing by the rules when the other side is almost unbounded by anything.
 
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Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
11,846
8,446
136
I see many viable paths forward here, but I still maintain that this is a largely media-driven narrative that is the culmination of the years of "Is Biden Too Old?" reporting (and potential bitterness over the loss of access journalism in a prior White House that leaked like a sieve), and political elites of the Democratic Party making numerous fatal errors over the past few years.

Where are the Senate hearings on SCOTUS corruption? Why did Garland take so long to have Trump charged? Where is the singular focus on Trump's mental health and the Republican party's desire to burn down our Republic in the name of power?

But it's "news" while everyone is largely ignoring :
1) revelations that Trump was constantly calling Epstein
2) Trump calling for Liz Cheney to face public military tribunal
3) Project 2025 leader saying it'll be peaceful "if Ds let it be"
4) Pesky SCOTUS rulings
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,884
34,847
136
We are not going to have any luck at shifting the media attention away from their focus on Biden's age and on to substantive issues no matter how much we try to will it. This is going to be the drumbeat though Election Day. This is also a factor in deciding what to do.
 
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Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,491
1,683
136
Right. No one "knows" anything. Harris just has huge demographic issues (and political ones) that Biden does not.

I think there has been a narrative driven by conservative sources over the last several years that Harris is incompetent. I think we have to be careful not to fall for this narrative the conservatives are pushing.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,447
7,386
136
But it's "news" while everyone is largely ignoring :
1) revelations that Trump was constantly calling Epstein
2) Trump calling for Liz Cheney to face public military tribunal
3) Project 2025 leader saying it'll be peaceful "if Ds let it be"
4) Pesky SCOTUS rulings
Yes, the proportionality is totally bizarre. Like, yeah, Biden is old and the debate was awful, but it was like wall-to-wall coverage in a way that none of these other stories have been. I don't recall such intense coverage when Trump was literally convicted for 34 felonies, found liable for sexual assault and fined millions of dollars, or any other innumerable things he and his party do. I don't buy the "everyone knows they are bad, so we don't need to reiterate it" view - the media is very capable of creating narratives. There seems to be a vested interest in having a horse race for clicks, even if that horse race drives us off a cliff and sends half those reporters to jail under a fascist Trump administration.

 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,825
49,526
136
Yes, the proportionality is totally bizarre. Like, yeah, Biden is old and the debate was awful, but it was like wall-to-wall coverage in a way that none of these other stories have been. I don't recall such intense coverage when Trump was literally convicted for 34 felonies, found liable for sexual assault and fined millions of dollars, or any other innumerable things he and his party do. I don't buy the "everyone knows they are bad, so we don't need to reiterate it" view - the media is very capable of creating narratives. There seems to be a vested interest in having a horse race for clicks, even if that horse race drives us off a cliff and sends half those reporters to jail under a fascist Trump administration.
This is absolutely right - the media pretends it has no ability to affect the discourse and that's absolute nonsense. They have this self-fulfilling circular reasoning that when all they do is report on Biden's age the salience of that issue goes up, and then they use the salience of that issue as a justification for reporting on it.

It's another 'but her emails'. Shocking to find out that after the election the public didn't actually care about classified document storage procedures and as soon as the media stopped its wall to wall reporting it went away. Then Trump did the same thing but since it wasn't emphasized... nobody cared. Then again the media didn't seem to engage in much self-reflection after 2016 and if anything were rewarded for it with higher ratings so I guess we're teaching them all the wrong lessons.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,884
34,847
136
I think there has been a narrative driven by conservative sources over the last several years that Harris is incompetent. I think we have to be careful not to fall for this narrative the conservatives are pushing.

One would think Biden should actually be doing worse than he is based upon the responses to questions other than the head to head with Trump. If the answer to this is that the voters picking Biden are so staunchly opposed to the very concept of Trump is this sentiment transferrable to Harris washing out some of her negatives?
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
11,846
8,446
136
I think there has been a narrative driven by conservative sources over the last several years that Harris is incompetent. I think we have to be careful not to fall for this narrative the conservatives are pushing.

Like the party is currently falling for with Biden is too old to do the job he's already doing well?
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,884
34,847
136
Like the party is currently falling for with Biden is too old to do the job he's already doing well?

If the world was fair we'd get better media coverage of things that mattered and Democrats with confidence that was not so brittle. Dealing with the situation at hand is the only choice however.
 
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MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,997
20,236
136
She has a vagina and isn't white. Those two will make it so large swaths of the population will never vote for her. She has never won anything outside of the state of CA.

And the same issue listed above for Biden is like the 38th biggest reason not to vote for his opponent. We're judging by two different stanards, and it's the reason why Ds always lose. They don't fight.
You are really doing the Biden cultists thing well. The reason Democrats lose is because they don't take enough chances. It's been almost a week after the debate, where is Biden showing us he can fight? Nowhere. He showed us on Thursday he can't fight and validated concern over many many months for this exact thing.

Yeah we need a candidate that can fight for us. The Dems need to make a move Biden has gaslit us long enough
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,997
20,236
136
This is absolutely right - the media pretends it has no ability to affect the discourse and that's absolute nonsense. They have this self-fulfilling circular reasoning that when all they do is report on Biden's age the salience of that issue goes up, and then they use the salience of that issue as a justification for reporting on it.

It's another 'but her emails'. Shocking to find out that after the election the public didn't actually care about classified document storage procedures and as soon as the media stopped its wall to wall reporting it went away. Then Trump did the same thing but since it wasn't emphasized... nobody cared. Then again the media didn't seem to engage in much self-reflection after 2016 and if anything were rewarded for it with higher ratings so I guess we're teaching them all the wrong lessons.
Imagine still gaslighting people by saying this is just about age and nothing to do with mental competency. Imagine comparing not wanting a candidate who has tried to fool us about their mental competency now being revealed as being a dismissive concern like but her emails.

We're going to have to re-educate these Democrats that are dragging us down like this.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,825
49,526
136
If the world was fair we'd get better media coverage of things that mattered and Democrats with confidence that was not so brittle. Dealing with the situation at hand is the only choice however.
Exactly - it would be nice if the media were to act more responsibly but if that ever happens it won't be in the next four months.
 
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