Odds of Biden stepping down, being replaced. Choose.

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trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,731
7,227
136
Well seeing as if we've already broached the subject of poking around for a Barak Obama v2.0 to step in for Joe, I'm thinking Eric Swalwell would do just fine. He did really well in the hearings he participated in, showed he could stand his ground with the style and intellect that's needed to take over for Biden as seamlessly as possible.

Or, as Kamala's VP pick?

*Too early?*
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,411
2,404
136
I see many viable paths forward here, but I still maintain that this is a largely media-driven narrative that is the culmination of the years of "Is Biden Too Old?" reporting (and potential bitterness over the loss of access journalism in a prior White House that leaked like a sieve), and political elites of the Democratic Party making numerous fatal errors over the past few years. (Don't get me wrong, it was a bad debate showing for sure, but it really does seem like a one-off. Biden sat for an interview with Stern ~1.5 months prior, and the clips and speeches post-debate have seemed fine. Never mind the whole "being able to debate" is not really a necessity for POTUS in day-to-day things).

Where are the Senate hearings on SCOTUS corruption? Why did Garland take so long to have Trump charged? Where is the singular focus on Trump's mental health and the Republican party's desire to burn down our Republic in the name of power?
My first thought after the disastrous debate is that it was just one really bad night. But there has been plenty of subsequent reporting that Biden is having quite a few issues over the past 12 months. Sure, virtually all of the sources are unnamed but I don't think it's just a "media-driven narrative." Also it doesn't really matter what you and I assess of the total situation, it's what swing voters in 5 states will do. Now we can only read the tea leaves, but "you play the hand you're dealt."


I think there has been a narrative driven by conservative sources over the last several years that Harris is incompetent. I think we have to be careful not to fall for this narrative the conservatives are pushing.
Almost by definition, conservative narratives are disingenuous at best, and dishonest is the norm. That isn't the question. The question is whether swing state voters will fall for it.

I've been a fairly consistent supporter of Joe Biden over the long campaign since he declared he wanted back. He's done a good job as POTUS, and most of the hand-wringing over his age has been MAGA talking points bullshit. Having said that, like @repoman0 I'm now willing to rip off the band aid and even roll the dice on Harris. Obviously it's far from ideal but there's been enough reporting recently that suggests: a) Harris isn't worse of a candidate than Biden right now* b) there's been enough incidences that bring into question Biden's mental fitness.

Some have suggested an open contest of sorts leading into the convention, and I really have no idea what that even looks like.

* Not sure what to make of the CNN/SSRS poll posted here yesterday, but if you read the whole thing it is fucken awful for Biden. They probably have the Trump +6 margin wrong but even if you have an error of 3 points, it's terribad. In the same poll, at least Harris is within the MOE.
 
Reactions: Brovane

blankslate

Diamond Member
Jun 16, 2008
8,679
502
126
no no not according to Reuters...
it is not over...

White House denies report that Biden is weighing whether to stay in election race

July 3 (Reuters) - The White House dismissed as "absolutely false" a New York Times report on Wednesday that said U.S. President Joe Biden had told an ally he was weighing whether to continue his bid for reelection in November.


I remember people posting in the other thread about the debate were saying this left the news cycle (perhaps a bit prematurely) anyways the Reuters report is July 3rd the day of this post.

also a video of statements from Carl Bernstein (of Woodward and Bernstein notoriety)



_____________
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
47,254
35,360
136
The NYT poll is going to induce a particularly severe panic among Dem electeds so more calls to drop out really likely. This is not a tenable situation.
 
Reactions: gothuevos

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,989
49,749
136
Yet despite all of these accomplishments Biden doesn't seem to be doing great against a candidate like Trump who is convicted Felon and a serial liar. Not sure what that says about our country.
I think it would say that the qualities needed to do the job effectively and the qualities needed to run for the job are not always the same. See Clinton, Hillary.
 
Reactions: Brainonska511

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
72,790
6,223
126
It didn't have to be Biden if senior and powerful Dems put the pressure earlier to have done the right thing then. Instead we had people, such as yourself, who said Biden is the anointed one. Guaranteed there were senior dems saying the same - don't rock the boat. And now, what some of us have been warning about for a long time, happened exactly. I do enjoy being right, but certainly not in this case. The last thing I wanted is for this shit to happen, but it would have been stupid to be quiet about the writing on the wall. It looked fairly obvious to me and others. The Dems, and Biden, failed us. And here we are. Just admit it was a mistake, and let's get Harris going, with all the campaign funds, and a solid white male VP not from the left coast. Oh and unfortunately, it cant be a gay guy. But if you want to keep saying the questioning of Biden is just ageism and as silly as Hilary's 'oh but her emails', well, you are just making it worse. Total cognitive dissonance. So get back to reality, and let's make this transition away from Biden to Harris as fast and painless and united as possible. We want as much of this limited time left for our new ticket to campaign. We don't need to be gaslit about Joe Biden anymore.

This is the way. We need the Dems to stop being too timid about rocking the boat sometimes.
The problem I see is that you have become far more what you fear than fskimospy has if he has at all, which, at the moment I don't see. In my opinion you are a liberal philosophically, intellectually, and a conservative at an emotional reactive level. I see you as being emotionally addicted to tantrum like behavior when things don't go your way. I believe you suffer from past traumatic experiences far more than he does.

fskimospy, in my opinion is the number one example that comes to my mind as representing the world of reality who posts on this forum. He does so calmly and with incisiveness. He also does so from a deep well of erudition and experience. He provides me, of course meaning in my opinion, a resource to see into a world I have much less experience with and I deeply appreciate the opportunity to be exposed to his opinions. I smell self assurance and self respect that flow inevitably out of the application of intelligence and reason.

I, like you, feel deeply upset about the things going on in our country and I believe equally upset at least as much as you are, but politics is the art of the possible and knowing what is possible, when what drives you are emotional absolutes, leads to belief in an altered reality that has noting to do with rational politics. fskimospy offers you a rational appraisal of what is possible, not one driven by emotional need. Emote all you want but try to listen to people who have more real world sense than you do. Try to remember that everything is hopeless but not serious. Life is fucked and then you die. And behind the illusion of the Matrix there is no spoon and there is no Trump.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
11,941
8,584
136
Yet despite all of these accomplishments Biden doesn't seem to be doing great against a candidate like Trump who is convicted Felon and a serial liar. Not sure what that says about our country.

It says more about the public/electorate than the candidates ...

We are talking about a voting public that polls show 20% believe that Biden is responsible for Roe v. Wade being overturned.
 
Reactions: dank69

gothuevos

Platinum Member
Jul 28, 2010
2,218
1,783
136
It says more about the public/electorate than the candidates ...

We are talking about a voting public that polls show 20% believe that Biden is responsible for Roe v. Wade being overturned.

If anything, blame Obama for not coedfying it into law back when he had his initial supermajority.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
72,790
6,223
126
I think it would say that the qualities needed to do the job effectively and the qualities needed to run for the job are not always the same. See Clinton, Hillary.
I would say that the qualities to run for the job are those that insure the voter that the qualities the prospective candidate possesses reflect the Golden Calf they worship as a replacement for lost self respect. In order to win in a world of self haters you offer up flattery and the prospect of getting even. Stockholm survivors worship abusers not not the weak who look like victims by showing care for them.
 

gothuevos

Platinum Member
Jul 28, 2010
2,218
1,783
136

Trump +3 is a landslide win. Even tied, it would be a solid Trump win.

The other question to ask, regardless of who you replace Biden with, has the public trust been so shattered by all the gaslighting about his health that they don't recover enough in time? I know it's Trump on the other side and he's just as disliked as ever but here we are, with him solidly as the favorite. Yeah blame the GOP, their voters, etc...but Dems share some of the blame too for not having some more foresight.

How did we get here?
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
72,790
6,223
126
If anything, blame Obama for not coedfying it into law back when he had his initial supermajority.
Everything happens exactly as it must. You want to blame others because you are full of the guilt that blame creates and instead of suffering want to pass that pain onto others.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
72,790
6,223
126
I think we should blame the people who repealed Roe v. Wade and not the people who didn't.
I think we should understand the negative effects of using blame as a force of intimidation. No blame can be attributed to programmed machines.
 

Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
3,986
5,865
136
I won’t change my 0% vote for the sake of posterity.

But seems fairly clear that Harris will be at the top of the ticket.
 
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