Ok so I voted a 30% chance Biden quits. Maybe that's too high of odds but I don't think 1 in 3 is necessarily unreasonable in these circumstances. The public face of what the campaign and allies are saying is irrelevant because he's in until his not. So what happens if that 1 in 3 comes to pass?
I think there is a pathway to smooth the runway for Harris if he agrees to do so, which seems likely in such a scenario. I'm not going to entertain the idea of any other nominee than her because we really veer into crazy West Wing writing territory about something that's not going to happen. While her approval is not what we would call amazing it would erase almost the entire approval gap between the candidates and mollify the largest concerns of the D base. There is likely less downside politically as long as she isn't seen as usurping which great pains would be taken to avoid creating that impression. Less known candidates will be more vulnerable to being defined negatively which would be much less of a problem with her since she went through the primary cycle and has been VP. In short I think this is workable electorally if he decides to go in this direction.
I think there is a pathway to smooth the runway for Harris if he agrees to do so, which seems likely in such a scenario. I'm not going to entertain the idea of any other nominee than her because we really veer into crazy West Wing writing territory about something that's not going to happen. While her approval is not what we would call amazing it would erase almost the entire approval gap between the candidates and mollify the largest concerns of the D base. There is likely less downside politically as long as she isn't seen as usurping which great pains would be taken to avoid creating that impression. Less known candidates will be more vulnerable to being defined negatively which would be much less of a problem with her since she went through the primary cycle and has been VP. In short I think this is workable electorally if he decides to go in this direction.