Odds of Biden stepping down, being replaced. Choose.

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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
47,945
37,038
136
Also when your party has an incumbent president the party apparatus is for all intents and purposes an extension of that person. Presidents don't create primary opponents for themselves.

Yep, people can just cast their gaze over to the Republicans on this one too. Trump isn't the nominee because he's the most electable person, he has it because he has an iron grip on the party's base.
 

WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
31,383
9,281
136
If you look at how things actually work this is not very effective. For example the response to the state of the union is the most common place for parties to try and do what you're saying - how often has that worked? Almost never.
Well you've obviously tried to get the best candidate you could and ended up with someone that's running neck and neck with Trump! Good going!
People who are good talents elevate themselves by getting attention on their own merits - this is what politics is all about, after all. You don't want someone who you have to gift attention to because they couldn't earn it on their own why would voters?
Eh? In a system that isn't awash with huge amounts of money controlled by two parties you might have a point.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,556
50,731
136
Well you've obviously tried to get the best candidate you could and ended up with someone that's running neck and neck with Trump! Good going!
The nominee for 2024 was ALWAYS going to be Biden unless he personally chose not to run! There was never a plausible alternative scenario outside of him dying because this is how politics works.

Biden wasn't going to elevate a primary rival and so other members of the party would have to basically openly declare war on Biden to do this, and if they lost, which they would have, their careers ruined. So who is doing this elevating?
Eh? In a system that isn't awash with huge amounts of money controlled by two parties you might have a point.
Butteigeig has gone from being a nobody small town mayor to someone who will be a very strong 2028 candidate, based on basically his own ability to get attention. That is assuming we have an election in 2028 of course.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
47,945
37,038
136
The democratic party can't give candidates exposure or advice?
They can't push new talent?
They have no influence over their own party?

An incumbent President effectively is the party. I have no idea what actual people you're referring to here.
 

WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
31,383
9,281
136
The nominee for 2024 was ALWAYS going to be Biden unless he personally chose not to run! There was never a plausible alternative scenario outside of him dying because this is how politics works.
That's not how politics works. That's how you've chosen to have politics work in the context of one party.
Biden wasn't going to elevate a primary rival and so other members of the party would have to basically openly declare war on Biden to do this, and if they lost, which they would have, their careers ruined. So who is doing this elevating?
The point of having a party is so you don't have to act as separate individuals.
Butteigeig has gone from being a nobody small town mayor to someone who will be a very strong 2028 candidate, based on basically his own ability to get attention. That is assuming we have an election in 2028 of course.
I mean if you are going to push a system where it takes that long to be allowed to take a turn at the top don't be shocked when all your candidates are ancient.
 

WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
31,383
9,281
136
Who is this 'democratic party'? Who leads it?
I mean there's a clue in the name "party". It's a collection of individuals. If it's so dysfunctional that it's ruled by one person who no one can get rid of even if it risks throwing away what should be an easy win then maybe you need to look at reforming how it works.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,556
50,731
136
That's not how politics works. That's how you've chosen to have politics work in the context of one party.
It's how politics works in America for all political parties and it's how they have worked for far longer than either of us have been alive.
The point of having a party is so you don't have to act as separate individuals.
The party is controlled by the incumbent president.
I mean if you are going to push a system where it takes that long to be allowed to take a turn at the top don't be shocked when all your candidates are ancient.
I'm not pushing any system, I'm just telling you how the system works.
 
Dec 10, 2005
25,005
8,275
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That's not how politics works. That's how you've chosen to have politics work in the context of one party.

The point of having a party is so you don't have to act as separate individuals.

I mean if you are going to push a system where it takes that long to be allowed to take a turn at the top don't be shocked when all your candidates are ancient.
American parties work differently than most European and British parties. Party members in the US self identity to join, generally aren't going to get kicked out or pushed aside, and candidates for office are selected based on primaries, and there are generally few restrictions for someone to register as a candidate of a particular party. The formal party doesn't get much of any say in selecting candidates.
 

WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
31,383
9,281
136
It's how politics works in America for all political parties and it's how they have worked for far longer than either of us have been alive.

The party is controlled by the incumbent president.

I'm not pushing any system, I'm just telling you how the system works.
I guess that you guys are screwed then.
You've tried nothing and you're all out of ideas.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,556
50,731
136
American parties work differently than most European and British parties. Party members in the US self identity to join, generally aren't going to get kicked out or pushed aside, and candidates for office are selected based on primaries, and there are generally few restrictions for someone to register as a candidate of a particular party. The formal party doesn't get much of any say in selecting candidates.
I think this is the rub, yes. People outside the US don't necessarily understand how parties in the US work as the parties essentially have no power. In other systems if someone misbehaves or is a bad candidate or whatever they can be left off the party list, which is both an enforcement mechanism and a way to push up talent. There's no list in American politics though and every candidate is essentially beholden to no one.

It's how Trump took over the Republican Party. They didn't like him but Republican primary voters did so even though the party very clearly opposed him at least initially it didn't matter because the party basically has no say.
 
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thilanliyan

Lifer
Jun 21, 2005
11,944
2,172
126
Butteigeig has gone from being a nobody small town mayor to someone who will be a very strong 2028 candidate, based on basically his own ability to get attention. That is assuming we have an election in 2028 of course.
I'm not sure the US will be ready to vote in an openly gay man as president, even in 2028. Would love to be wrong, but I doubt it.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,556
50,731
136
I'm not sure the US is ready to vote in an openly gay man as president. Would love to be wrong, but I doubt it.
You could very well be right but regardless I expect him to run in 2028 if we aren't a dictatorship then and I expect him to be a strong candidate in the primary.
 
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Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,647
1,911
136
Sure and because of that everyone thought of Biden as some young whippersnapper./eye roll

Biden’s age was a concern the first time he ran and people still voted for him, in fact it was a record amount of people who voted him. Not only that but every subsequent election people kept voting for democrats. And people, again, voted for him in the primary.

No one has been bamboozled.

I disagree, I think the Biden WH tried to conceal his cognitive decline. I will still vote for Biden because the alternative is a lot worse. I have gotten more comfortable with Harris as President once I looked past all the GOP BS. I am still hoping that he steps aside sooner rather than later and let's her run at the top of the ticket. The time is right for a woman of color to be President instead of another old white male.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
47,945
37,038
136
"Debates don't change people's minds"

Debate bounces are not unexpected but they are not typically durable, again ask President Hillary Clinton about this. So far the shift from decent pollsters is smaller than usual. I think that feeds into the idea that the vast majority of the electorate is locked in which considering it's a rematch is not a surprise.

What is unexpected is the firestorm that Biden's performance has touched off in the D political sphere that threatens his candidacy. Pulling a full Trump here is likely not an option because the parties are not the same and he can't have a viable shot without both D political support and donor money, both of which are visibly receding along with a lot of D voter confidence.
 
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