Odds of Biden stepping down, being replaced. Choose.

Page 8 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
3,955
5,825
136
Which will serve as the larger electoral headwind?

- Biden’s terrible debate performance and ongoing concerns over his mental capabilities

- SCOTUS giving Trump a lifetime emperor appointment
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,865
34,813
136
I'm going to break out the classics for this one.

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/06/us/politics/06web-baker.html


Yet Bradley A. Blakeman, a former White House aide to President George W. Bush and a Republican strategist, said the teleprompter makes Mr. Obama look robotic. “He is extremely scripted, and he is cautious to the max and afraid of gaffes,” Mr. Blakeman said. When answering questions without a script, Mr. Blakeman said, “his speech is very halted, and you can see him take a lot of time to think about what he’s going to say.”
 

gothuevos

Platinum Member
Jul 28, 2010
2,088
1,733
136
Sounds like he's continuing his push rightward that he did when trying to beat rightwing extremist lunatic J.D. Vance for an Ohio Senate seat.

Tim Ryan is a good man. He's also a pragmatist, and did what he could to try to win that seat from Vance in what is a deep red Ohio these days.

Again, he's a pragmatist. He sees the writing on the wall for Biden. I'm not sure I share his enthusiasm for Harris being an "energetic force," but if he is calling on Biden to drop out, I would be very, very worried.
 

gothuevos

Platinum Member
Jul 28, 2010
2,088
1,733
136
Which will serve as the larger electoral headwind?

- Biden’s terrible debate performance and ongoing concerns over his mental capabilities

- SCOTUS giving Trump a lifetime emperor appointment

Probably cancel each other out? Which means a slight Trump edge in most polls, and some predictive models having Trump as high as 60-65% of winning - granted some of these are degenerate gambling sites LOL (but hey, Vegas usually knows...).
 

BurnItDwn

Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
26,127
1,604
126
They should have had primary debates where we would have had a chance of getting a better candidate. Should have primary debates every primary. Should not matter if incumbent and party leadership want otherwise.
 
Reactions: gothuevos

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,865
34,813
136
They should have had primary debates where we would have had a chance of getting a better candidate. Should have primary debates every primary. Should not matter if incumbent and party leadership want otherwise.

This is the same "we should have had a primary" argument that suffers from the same deficiencies in that you cannot compel challengers to step forward if they don't like their chances. If people think somebody like Newsom who's every bone is made up of 100% pure high test ambition wasn't checking out his own level of support in a primary v Biden you're fooling yourselves.
 
Reactions: Brainonska511

gothuevos

Platinum Member
Jul 28, 2010
2,088
1,733
136
They should have had primary debates where we would have had a chance of getting a better candidate. Should have primary debates every primary. Should not matter if incumbent and party leadership want otherwise.

Really it's all on Biden. He was already somewhat shaky in 2020 and that was a lifetime ago.

He should have committed to just one term, and party leadership/friends/family/whomever should have made it abundantly clear to him a year ago that his historic unpopularity and declining health were not going to be easy things to overcome.

I get it - incumbency is powerful, but the old rules are dead. This is a different ballgame these days. Someone on twitter said it best - his re-election campaign is now a "vanity project" propped up by party leadership and family, both of whom should know better.
 

Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
3,955
5,825
136
Probably cancel each other out? Which means a slight Trump edge in most polls, and some predictive models having Trump as high as 60-65% of winning - granted some of these are degenerate gambling sites LOL (but hey, Vegas usually knows...).

Aren’t those predictive models based on polling that has recently been highly inaccurate and right-leaning?
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,865
34,813
136
Really it's all on Biden. He was already somewhat shaky in 2020 and that was a lifetime ago.

He should have committed to just one term, and party leadership/friends/family/whomever should have made it abundantly clear to him a year ago that his historic unpopularity and declining health were not going to be easy things to overcome.

I get it - incumbency is powerful, but the old rules are dead. This is a different ballgame these days. Someone on twitter said it best - his re-election campaign is now a "vanity project" propped up by party leadership and family, both of whom should know better.

I don't necessarily think this is wrong however his political standing was substantially better when he announced his re-elect campaign. Basically any incumbent president in either party is going to go for it under those circumstances and there really is no way for the modern party machinery alone to dislodge them.
 

JD50

Lifer
Sep 4, 2005
11,691
2,150
126
Imagine still saying that this is about a stutter. The gaslighting, or insane cognitive dissonance, is incredibly arrogant at this point. It's what got us into this shit show brought upon us by the Dem party. These people are so far detached from reality on this topic, it's almost MAGA like in intensity.



Thanks. It's good to see that a good amount of people here are seeing past the gaslighting of these Biden mini-cultists. Some of us were 1,000% right to be concerned about Biden's mental faculties due to aging this whole time, and insisting the Dems have potentially fucked us with this gamble. Well, the Dems lost this gamble and unfortunately we were correct.

My 80 year old mother, lifelong Democrat, who never says a bad thing about anyone, although she does agree with me that the MAGA people are insane and bad, she just wont' say it herself, saw Biden in the debate and said, nice decent man but doesn't have 'it' to be president anymore.


Vox has an interesting article on the various stay vs dropout discussion

You should consider taking a break from this forum, you've gotten annoying as shit
 

gothuevos

Platinum Member
Jul 28, 2010
2,088
1,733
136
Aren’t those predictive models based on polling that has recently been highly inaccurate and right-leaning?

Some of it is polling, some of is based on fundraising, other events, etc.

I'm not claiming it's an exact science or even a good model, only that they exist. FWIW, the one model that has Trump at 60% had Biden at 90% back in October 2020.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,432
7,355
136
The arguments for replacement largely rest in some fantasy world where some magical candidate will swoop out of the wings, somehow have legitimacy in the eyes of the Democratic party (which is typically gained through the primary process), all the other baggage that goes along with bringing new people forward, and the fact that Republicans are waiting eagerly for such a replacement that they can then try and challenge off the ballot. I wouldn't count on federal courts standing in the way of Republicans trying to fuck with elections further.

Jamelle Bouie brought up a lot of these points in this idea of replacing Biden: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/...e_code=1.4E0.ry5t.j0UG0l00Bw8p&smid=url-share

It's not that clear cut and it could just completely backfire. And if he shouldn't run, why not just resign now? Surely, running the country is more difficult than campaigning for re-election.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,945
20,215
136
You should consider taking a break from this forum, you've gotten annoying as shit
If you find me more annoying than the people saying this was really about a stuttering off night, then I really don't give a flying fuck what you think. You can fuck off with the rest of those morons. I quoted a post where someone agreed with me about the Biden mini-cult, and a couple others have said something similar. I feel fine.

Biden should resign from this race btw. He and the Dem elite in his circle gaslit us this entire time about him, in such an important election, really fucked up when you think about it.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,865
34,813
136
It's not that clear cut and it could just completely backfire. And if he shouldn't run, why not just resign now? Surely, running the country is more difficult than campaigning for re-election.

Not actually having to govern would free up Harris to campaign and a Biden resignation could feed the idea that he was forced out further increasing the risk of a party split. I think the one and only way for this thing to go down is for Biden to basically engineer her elevation to the top of the ticket, which I think he could get done if negotiating his stand down.
 
Reactions: Zorba and gothuevos

JD50

Lifer
Sep 4, 2005
11,691
2,150
126
If you find me more annoying than the people saying this was really about a stuttering off night, then I really don't give a flying fuck what you think. You can fuck off with the rest of those morons. I quoted a post where someone agreed with me about the Biden mini-cult, and a couple others have said something similar. I feel fine.

Biden should resign from this race btw.
This is why you need to take a break, you aren't even reading what people are saying. The comment about his stutter was in reference to him using a teleprompter at some 15 minute speech or whatever it is spacejamz is whining about.
 

gothuevos

Platinum Member
Jul 28, 2010
2,088
1,733
136
If you are on the replace side of the argument it's getting stronger IMO:


The sooner it happens, the better.

Not sure if Harris is the answer, but whoever it is...their numbers can only potentially go up. As I said months ago, Biden's floor continues to drop with each passing week. And as far as making additional media appearances to set people at ease...he's damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. At this point his re-election campaign has been mortally wounded.

Like you said - huge risk either way. But replacing the ticket NOW at least gives them a CHANCE. Doubtful at this point that you will see any sort of bump in Biden's numbers, it would only be the opposite.
 

BurnItDwn

Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
26,127
1,604
126
This is the same "we should have had a primary" argument that suffers from the same deficiencies in that you cannot compel challengers to step forward if they don't like their chances. If people think somebody like Newsom who's every bone is made up of 100% pure high test ambition wasn't checking out his own level of support in a primary v Biden you're fooling yourselves.
I think seeing Marianne Williamson run circles around Biden might have opened a bunch of eyes that were blind to Biden's decline.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,865
34,813
136
I think seeing Marianne Williamson run circles around Biden might have opened a bunch of eyes that were blind to Biden's decline.

Well then there is also the issue of how do you compel the incumbent's participation? Trump attended none of his party's primary debates simply because he effectively had an incumbent position.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,945
20,215
136
This is why you need to take a break, you aren't even reading what people are saying. The comment about his stutter was in reference to him using a teleprompter at some 15 minute speech or whatever it is spacejamz is whining about.
I stand corrected, though this same poster has said things not too far off to that about Thursday's performance. Since it was so similar, I made an assumption it was about that night. Brainonska is for sure in the Biden mini-cult. K1052, fskim, and a couple others. They are the ones gaslighting us now about Biden.
 
Reactions: gothuevos

gothuevos

Platinum Member
Jul 28, 2010
2,088
1,733
136
Well then there is also the issue of how do you compel the incumbent's participation? Trump attended none of his party's primary debates simply because he effectively had an incumbent position.

Yep, it all boils down to Biden. Will he make the right decision?
 
sale-70-410-exam    | Exam-200-125-pdf    | we-sale-70-410-exam    | hot-sale-70-410-exam    | Latest-exam-700-603-Dumps    | Dumps-98-363-exams-date    | Certs-200-125-date    | Dumps-300-075-exams-date    | hot-sale-book-C8010-726-book    | Hot-Sale-200-310-Exam    | Exam-Description-200-310-dumps?    | hot-sale-book-200-125-book    | Latest-Updated-300-209-Exam    | Dumps-210-260-exams-date    | Download-200-125-Exam-PDF    | Exam-Description-300-101-dumps    | Certs-300-101-date    | Hot-Sale-300-075-Exam    | Latest-exam-200-125-Dumps    | Exam-Description-200-125-dumps    | Latest-Updated-300-075-Exam    | hot-sale-book-210-260-book    | Dumps-200-901-exams-date    | Certs-200-901-date    | Latest-exam-1Z0-062-Dumps    | Hot-Sale-1Z0-062-Exam    | Certs-CSSLP-date    | 100%-Pass-70-383-Exams    | Latest-JN0-360-real-exam-questions    | 100%-Pass-4A0-100-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-300-135-exams-date    | Passed-200-105-Tech-Exams    | Latest-Updated-200-310-Exam    | Download-300-070-Exam-PDF    | Hot-Sale-JN0-360-Exam    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Exams    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-JN0-360-exams-date    | Exam-Description-1Z0-876-dumps    | Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps    | Dumps-HPE0-Y53-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-HPE0-Y53-Exam    | 100%-Pass-HPE0-Y53-Real-Exam-Questions    | Pass-4A0-100-Exam    | Latest-4A0-100-Questions    | Dumps-98-365-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-98-365-Exam    | 100%-Pass-VCS-254-Exams    | 2017-Latest-VCS-273-Exam    | Dumps-200-355-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-300-320-Exam    | Pass-300-101-Exam    | 100%-Pass-300-115-Exams    |
http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    | http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    |