***Official*** 2008 Stock Market Thread

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: FoBoT
black monday is a month early this year

I was just flipping through the channels and saw the "Deal or No Deal" program header on CNBC. I discovered that they had called their weekday crew back in for a special program. Doesn't look good at all. Now the AP is reporting that the FED is going to sit tight on rates (I think that many on the street expected a cut). Might be the biggest financial mess in decades......

Dow Futures down 250 points right now. Merrill (as CNBC just reported) no longer a public company. Not good...

 

[Slew Foot]

Lehman is reportedly filing for bankruptcy, ML is going to be bought out by BofA, BB will likely hold rates steady Tuesday, Goldman reports on Tuesday as well.

I predict a huge gap downward followed by a slow recovery during the day, end up about down 100 or so.

My portfolio has done pretty well aside from GE, Kraft and my bank puts are life savers right now.

 

[Special K]

Why is Lehman not getting a bailout from the Fed? Are they not too big to fail? Would the fall of Bear really have been that much worse than what could happen as a result of Lehman if the Fed doesn't step in?

 

[sandorski]

Tomorrow is probably going to be brutal.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Lehman is reportedly filing for bankruptcy, ML is going to be bought out by BofA, BB will likely hold rates steady Tuesday, Goldman reports on Tuesday as well.

I predict a huge gap downward followed by a slow recovery during the day, end up about down 100 or so.

My portfolio has done pretty well aside from GE, Kraft and my bank puts are life savers right now.

BoA buys Merrill for $44 billion or $29/shr

It's pretty incredible the turn of events this year. Who would've thought Bear Sterns, Lehman Bros, and Merrill Lynch would be gone. Wow. Will Tuesday finally show emperor Goldman "has no clothes?" $78 billion in Level 3 assets looms. Given the craziness and current meltdown of assets and debts, value of the Level 3 assets have to had deflated. Goldman did a good job of hedging with derivatives the past quarters but how long can they keep this up? Goldman results rallied the market right after Bear Sterns collapse and did again the past quarter. Can it do it again like the market expects or will they disappoint taking the market with it?

 

[DomS]

Originally posted by: Christobevii3
Lehman files for bankruptcy, merrill is begging bank of america to take them over, and the fed will have to cut tuesday. What a shitstorm.

they said no more cuts after the last one though...I bet they leave it alone this time. They're going to have to eventually...

 

[DomS]

Originally posted by: Special K
Why is Lehman not getting a bailout from the Fed? Are they not too big to fail? Would the fall of Bear really have been that much worse than what could happen to Lehman if the Fed doesn't step in?

Probably because it looks bad enough that they're bailing all these larger banks out that they have to let at least ONE company fail here...

 

[DomS]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Lehman is reportedly filing for bankruptcy, ML is going to be bought out by BofA, BB will likely hold rates steady Tuesday, Goldman reports on Tuesday as well.

I predict a huge gap downward followed by a slow recovery during the day, end up about down 100 or so.

My portfolio has done pretty well aside from GE, Kraft and my bank puts are life savers right now.

BoA buys Merrill for $44 billion or $29/shr

It's pretty incredible the turn of events this year. Who would've thought Bear Sterns, Lehman Bros, and Merrill Lynch would be gone. Wow. Will Tuesday finally show emperor Goldman "has no clothes?" $78 billion in Level 3 assets looms. Given the craziness and current meltdown of assets and debts, value of the Level 3 assets have to had deflated. Goldman did a good job of hedging with derivatives the past quarters but how long can they keep this up? Goldman results rallied the market right after Bear Sterns collapse and did again the past quarter. Can it do it again like the market expects or will they disappoint taking the market with it?

Well.....if Goldman tanks....what's left....I think that would be the final piece to the recession puzzle.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: DomS

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Lehman is reportedly filing for bankruptcy, ML is going to be bought out by BofA, BB will likely hold rates steady Tuesday, Goldman reports on Tuesday as well.

I predict a huge gap downward followed by a slow recovery during the day, end up about down 100 or so.

My portfolio has done pretty well aside from GE, Kraft and my bank puts are life savers right now.

BoA buys Merrill for $44 billion or $29/shr

It's pretty incredible the turn of events this year. Who would've thought Bear Sterns, Lehman Bros, and Merrill Lynch would be gone. Wow. Will Tuesday finally show emperor Goldman "has no clothes?" $78 billion in Level 3 assets looms. Given the craziness and current meltdown of assets and debts, value of the Level 3 assets have to had deflated. Goldman did a good job of hedging with derivatives the past quarters but how long can they keep this up? Goldman results rallied the market right after Bear Sterns collapse and did again the past quarter. Can it do it again like the market expects or will they disappoint taking the market with it?

Well.....if Goldman tanks....what's left....I think that would be the final piece to the recession puzzle.

Goldman is not going to tank. But they can shake the confidence of already fragile market. AIG is the bigger wildcard. WaMu will be gone soon. We haven't heard much from Citi recently. Many people think Citi won't survive. AIG and Citi might be too big to fail. Before this is all over, many more financial institutions will have to fail. Residential real estate will likely start stabilizing next year but commercial real estate failures are just getting started. Commercial real estate and bank credit cards are the next shoes to drop. Retailing stocks have held up fairly decent but expect that to change if retail customers are tapped out on credit cards.

 

[Special K]

Originally posted by: DomS

Originally posted by: Special K
Why is Lehman not getting a bailout from the Fed? Are they not too big to fail? Would the fall of Bear really have been that much worse than what could happen to Lehman if the Fed doesn't step in?

Probably because it looks bad enough that they're bailing all these larger banks out that they have to let at least ONE company fail here...

Some have said that allowing Bear to fail would have caused a worldwide collapse of financial systems. The Fed didn't want to bail Bear out, but bailing Bear out apparently seemed better than the alternative.

Is that not the case with Lehman?

 

[Azurik]

Goldman won't fail... like I've said time and time again in this thread, they are THE strongest I-Bank (or what's left of them).

I'm actually only down 7% or so in my 401k. The others... well... they could be better... thoughh RTN being stable again and my decent sized position in KFT is helping.

I'm still putting in money into the markets every week. It sucks to see the market fall and your portfoilio turn red, but the dot com experience showed me that investing consistently and regularly (into indices and blue-chips) while everyone is running away is the best answer.

Goodluck to all.

 

[moparacer]

Its official LEH is bankrupt......

Tomorrow's going to be interesting....

 

[imported_Lothar]

Don't fall for the Goldman hype.
They dance to the same beat as the rest of Wall Street.

 

[Mill]

AIG is fucking me big time right now. I have owned it since 1993 and it just died.

 

[Jeff7181]

This is why trading on news and speculation is risky. I for one enjoy these big market moving events. A stock doesn't have to go up to make money on it, ya know.

 

[ponyo]

What I'm wondering is why BoA paid so high of premium for Merrill. If they had waited little bit and let the Lehman fallout digest, they could've likely paid lot less for Merrill IMO. Or did they think things would improve and their chance of acquiring Merrill disappear? Seems like pretty quick decision to buy...

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Naustica
What I'm wondering is why BoA paid so high of premium for Merrill. If they had waited little bit and let the Lehman fallout digest, they could've likely paid lot less for Merrill IMO. Or did they think things would improve and their chance of acquiring Merrill disappear? Seems like pretty quick decision to buy...

Exactly what I asked in this thread here.
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2227869&enterthread=y

Doesn't make sense.
The only thing that *possibly* makes sense is if they want to be remembered as the angel that saved the US market from financial collapse.

This is the hastiest merger decision I've ever seen Kenneth Lewis make since I began following him in 2004.

 

[flashbacck]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Naustica
What I'm wondering is why BoA paid so high of premium for Merrill. If they had waited little bit and let the Lehman fallout digest, they could've likely paid lot less for Merrill IMO. Or did they think things would improve and their chance of acquiring Merrill disappear? Seems like pretty quick decision to buy...

Exactly what I asked in this thread here.
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2227869&enterthread=y

Doesn't make sense.
The only thing that *possibly* makes sense is if they want to be remembered as the angel that saved the US market from financial collapse.

...

Is being the angel of the US market worth an extra $24 billion?

I also wonder why buyouts often go for ridiculous premiums. MSFT bidding $30 for yahoo stock at $22 is another example that comes to mind.

 

[her209]

Originally posted by: flashbacck

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Naustica
What I'm wondering is why BoA paid so high of premium for Merrill. If they had waited little bit and let the Lehman fallout digest, they could've likely paid lot less for Merrill IMO. Or did they think things would improve and their chance of acquiring Merrill disappear? Seems like pretty quick decision to buy...

Exactly what I asked in this thread here.
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2227869&enterthread=y

Doesn't make sense.
The only thing that *possibly* makes sense is if they want to be remembered as the angel that saved the US market from financial collapse.

...

Is being the angel of the US market worth an extra $24 billion?

I also wonder why buyouts often go for ridiculous premiums. MSFT bidding $30 for yahoo stock at $22 is another example that comes to mind.

Goodwill

 

[flashbacck]

Originally posted by: her209

Originally posted by: flashbacck

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Naustica
What I'm wondering is why BoA paid so high of premium for Merrill. If they had waited little bit and let the Lehman fallout digest, they could've likely paid lot less for Merrill IMO. Or did they think things would improve and their chance of acquiring Merrill disappear? Seems like pretty quick decision to buy...

Exactly what I asked in this thread here.
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2227869&enterthread=y

Doesn't make sense.
The only thing that *possibly* makes sense is if they want to be remembered as the angel that saved the US market from financial collapse.

...

Is being the angel of the US market worth an extra $24 billion?

I also wonder why buyouts often go for ridiculous premiums. MSFT bidding $30 for yahoo stock at $22 is another example that comes to mind.

Goodwill

right... but that doesn't answer the question. The price of MER is $26b, so why the need to offer $50b? Given the current market sentiment, I'm sure many shareholders would've sold at $35.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Lothar
Don't fall for the Goldman hype.
They dance to the same beat as the rest of Wall Street.

The beat of 1929?

 

[Pocatello]

If I have some money, I would put $$ under my bed, or gold.

 

[JJChicken]

Originally posted by: Pocatello
If I have some money, I would put $$ under my bed, or gold.

Or better yet, donate to www.barackobama.com

 

[DomS]

Originally posted by: Azurik
Goldman won't fail... like I've said time and time again in this thread, they are THE strongest I-Bank (or what's left of them).

I'm actually only down 7% or so in my 401k. The others... well... they could be better... thoughh RTN being stable again and my decent sized position in KFT is helping.

I'm still putting in money into the markets every week. It sucks to see the market fall and your portfoilio turn red, but the dot com experience showed me that investing consistently and regularly (into indices and blue-chips) while everyone is running away is the best answer.

Goodluck to all.

I should've worded that better. I don't mean 'if they fail' I mean more if their filings aren't pretty..

 

[vi edit]

TD Ameritrade's site is getting clobbered. I can't even get in to get quotes in my account. It was a bloodbath in the portfolio snapshot I did see though.