***Official*** 2008 Stock Market Thread

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: ricochet
Over 500 point drop for the DJIA. Brutal day indeed.

I think this is the worst DOW drop since 9/11 if I can recall correctly. It dropped close to 700 points that day.

I wish I had more ammo to buy RMBS.

What competitive advantage does RMBS have?

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
It's a good day to announce bad news if you don't want anyone to know about it.

HP just announced 24,600 job cuts after their EDS buyout.

Good riddance.
As a shareholder I approve of their cut.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: ricochet
Over 500 point drop for the DJIA. Brutal day indeed.

I think this is the worst DOW drop since 9/11 if I can recall correctly. It dropped close to 700 points that day.

I wish I had more ammo to buy RMBS.

What competitive advantage does RMBS have?

Nothing, they are a dirty leech of a company that stifles advancement of technology.

 

[Noirish]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
Bank Of America is working towards going Chapter 11. Why on earth are they buying Meryl Lynch? They keep aquiring poorly run companies. The last good thing they did was buy Fleet many years ago.

<== pissed off BAC share holder.

i wonder if there is some secret term with the feds?
that's a huge premium considering the deteriorating financial sector.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Naustica
Normally, I like to play on day like today to buy into the down open. I'm not doing that today. I'm aware there will likely be rally attempt today and there's the Fed's "invisible hand" waiting and could intervene anytime. Unless we totally melt, I will sit on my hand. I want better prices.

I posted this 9:54am this morning and I still feel the same. Yes, I know the Dow closed down 500 points and the Nasdaq and the S&P took a beating as well. But despite the drop, I didn't feel the panic and didn't see people panicking. I figured they would try to rally the market at least once which they did but I didn't feel like it was going to stick like the previous times. So I decided not to play. BKX index opened close to what it closed on Friday and it still finished the day lot higher than the interday low of July 15. VIX was too low as well. Everyone seemed too calm like they expected this to mark the bottom and they didn't want to sell at the bottom. So I want more pain and better prices before I put my money to work. I'm still expecting further downside as funds tied to Lehman and others are forced to unwind bets and some forced liquidation occurs which have the potential to feed on itself and cause the fear we need and the massive selling and price drop. The wild card is of course the Fed. They are actively working with their "invisible hand", and I'm sure they'll step in if everything gets too crazy.

 

[JS80]

My friend in SF said he walked by a wamu and there was a line out the door...

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
Bank Of America is working towards going Chapter 11. Why on earth are they buying Meryl Lynch? They keep aquiring poorly run companies. The last good thing they did was buy Fleet many years ago.

<== pissed off BAC share holder.

Fleet Boston was an excellent acquisition.
MBNA was a "meh" acquisition.
LaSalle was an excellent acquisition.
Countrywide seems like a "so so" acquisition the more I look at it (more so when you look at the fact that Freddie Mac and Frannie Mae are no more >>> less competition)

They paid WAYYY too much for Merrill.
The undisputed fact is Merrill would have been in single digits today after the Lehman bankrupt, and BAC could have saved itself billions in such acquisition.

I don't regret my decision in not buying BAC either. I would rather invest in things that I can understand.
This purchase of Merrill makes analyzing the company even more difficult.
As an individual investor, I'm not prepared to read through hundreds of thousands of pages of documents to get at the underlying assets on a single Collateralized Debt Obligation security that's on Merrill's books.

This thing still feels like a shotgun marriage.
But then again, I've underestimated Kenneth Lewis in the past and so has many investors and the majority of Wall Street.
We shall see...

 

[imported_Lothar]

Luckily for me, 27% of our portfolio is in healthcare alone, and another 17.3% in VIPSX + cash.
Portfolio down only -1.48% today.

I was spared from the carnage by not having "financial" stocks.

 

[her209]

Woo hoo! PIMCO had 0% change today.

 

[ponyo]

I'm watching CNBC and they're saying AIG will likely file for bankruptcy on Wednesday. They need to come up with something like $70 billion tomorrow which is impossible in this credit environment. AIG is the world's largest insurer and 18th largest company in the world. I viewed them as too big to fail. It could get real ugly if AIG goes down.

 

[richardycc]

anyone bought any LEH, AIG, MER, or BAC today??

 

[Cdubneeddeal]

Lost over $1000 today on my 401k. Almost $4.93 a share on one of my investments.

 

[ViperVin2]

Originally posted by: Cdubneeddeal
Lost over $1000 today on my 401k. Almost $4.93 a share on one of my investments.

eh, that's all? I'm sorry.. today was just brutal on my portfolio.

 

[ivan2]

down 10% on my portfolio in my last 2 days, I'm day trading GS option to cover up today's loss, so far so good... wish me luck

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: ricochet
Over 500 point drop for the DJIA. Brutal day indeed.

I think this is the worst DOW drop since 9/11 if I can recall correctly. It dropped close to 700 points that day.

I wish I had more ammo to buy RMBS.

What competitive advantage does RMBS have?

Nothing, they are a dirty leech of a company that stifles advancement of technology.

We normally agree JS80, but this is something you need to do a lot more research about. Rambus realized that the bandwidth of RAM was severly hindering the CPU. They created innovative and at that time, what many considered to be impossible technology. They do not manufacture anything, but rather depend on liscensing their IP to make money off royalties. A few companies decided not to pay and Rambus had to litigate. They have a litigation stigma attached to their name now, but what do you expect them to do when their IP is being stolen? The big memory manufacturers wanted to fight Rambus in court and hope that a small company would buckle and fold due to their limited funds. That didn't happen.

Micron (one of the companies Rambus was suing for infringement) got the FTC involved... don't get me started how corrupt the FTC is. They ruled against Rambus. Rambus appealed to the FTC Administrative Law Judge and won on all counts. The FTC ALJ even remarked how the FTC's argument was so weak and flawed. The FTC wanted a full judge panel review and NOT one judge agreed to hear the case.

On top of that... ALL of the companies Rambus is suing was investigated by the Department of Justice. They ALL admitted to price-fixing SDRAM, DDR-DRAM and RDRAM - undercutting their prices to incur a loss in order to drive RDRAM out of the market.

They have won every major court decision since then. The law has sided with Rambus... and that all flavors of RAM have Rambus IP in there. It's only a matter of time right now.

Honestly, if you have any questions regarding Rambus, let me know. They are not a leech, they just want to be paid what is rightfully yours. How would you feel is you invented something groundbreaking, and instead of earning money for it, people stole it from you and called it their own? Would you just let it go and lose out on all that money, or would you be the "leech" trying to get what is due to you?

 

[thomsbrain]

Berkshire Hathaway is up a healthy amount today, probably on news of AIG's troubles. In the past week or so, it has recovered most of its losses over the last few months. One of the few bright spots in the market.

Overall, things seem to be recovering some of the ground lost on Monday.

 

[Mark R]

Holy Creole. Some of the ETFs that I trade just blew up today. Trading suspended as the funds are completely dependednt on derivatives with AIG as counterparty, as a result the downgrade prompted complete suspension.

As this is just a suspension, the value of the funds should theoretically be preserved (apart from the problem that a load of people just got their asses handed to them unable to close a losing position). However, should AIG fail, these funds may only recover a fraction of their notional value.

Fortunately, I'd closed all positions in all these, so I wasn't shafted. But on some forums, it's screaming panic.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: ricochet
Over 500 point drop for the DJIA. Brutal day indeed.

I think this is the worst DOW drop since 9/11 if I can recall correctly. It dropped close to 700 points that day.

I wish I had more ammo to buy RMBS.

What competitive advantage does RMBS have?

Nothing, they are a dirty leech of a company that stifles advancement of technology.

We normally agree JS80, but this is something you need to do a lot more research about. Rambus realized that the bandwidth of RAM was severly hindering the CPU. They created innovative and at that time, what many considered to be impossible technology. They do not manufacture anything, but rather depend on liscensing their IP to make money off royalties. A few companies decided not to pay and Rambus had to litigate. They have a litigation stigma attached to their name now, but what do you expect them to do when their IP is being stolen? The big memory manufacturers wanted to fight Rambus in court and hope that a small company would buckle and fold due to their limited funds. That didn't happen.

Micron (one of the companies Rambus was suing for infringement) got the FTC involved... don't get me started how corrupt the FTC is. They ruled against Rambus. Rambus appealed to the FTC Administrative Law Judge and won on all counts. The FTC ALJ even remarked how the FTC's argument was so weak and flawed. The FTC wanted a full judge panel review and NOT one judge agreed to hear the case.

On top of that... ALL of the companies Rambus is suing was investigated by the Department of Justice. They ALL admitted to price-fixing SDRAM, DDR-DRAM and RDRAM - undercutting their prices to incur a loss in order to drive RDRAM out of the market.

They have won every major court decision since then. The law has sided with Rambus... and that all flavors of RAM have Rambus IP in there. It's only a matter of time right now.

Honestly, if you have any questions regarding Rambus, let me know. They are not a leech, they just want to be paid what is rightfully yours. How would you feel is you invented something groundbreaking, and instead of earning money for it, people stole it from you and called it their own? Would you just let it go and lose out on all that money, or would you be the "leech" trying to get what is due to you?

You're at the mercy of the court with Rambus. If they lose or don't win outright, there goes your gamble/investment. I don't like playing all or nothing game. Especially on something I've no edge. I know courts are slow but this thing has dragged out like 8 years now. If this was clear and shut case like you think, stock would've reflected some of that. What I've learned over the years is that stocks do not lie. People do.

 

[bctbct]

Half my 401k is in bonds and treasuries. Time to move some out into more aggressive investments?

 

[Ricochet]

I been eyeing nVidia (NVDA). It's been hitting a new 52-week low the last few days. Today it showed sign of a recovery. Have we found a bottom or just short covering?

Another one that is gaining momentum is Universal Display (PANL). I may have missed the boat on that one.

 

[Ricochet]

Fed will lend $85 billion to rescue AIG

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: jpeyton
It's a good day to announce bad news if you don't want anyone to know about it.

HP just announced 24,600 job cuts after their EDS buyout.

Good riddance.
As a shareholder I approve of their cut.

HPQ up +6.79% today. :thumbsup:
Dell meanwhile is in free fall. They're down over -35% YTD, while HPQ is only down -4%.
If my competitor is down by more than -35% within the past month and I'm up +5%, that can only be good news for me.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: ricochet
Over 500 point drop for the DJIA. Brutal day indeed.

I think this is the worst DOW drop since 9/11 if I can recall correctly. It dropped close to 700 points that day.

I wish I had more ammo to buy RMBS.

What competitive advantage does RMBS have?

Nothing, they are a dirty leech of a company that stifles advancement of technology.

We normally agree JS80, but this is something you need to do a lot more research about. Rambus realized that the bandwidth of RAM was severly hindering the CPU. They created innovative and at that time, what many considered to be impossible technology. They do not manufacture anything, but rather depend on liscensing their IP to make money off royalties. A few companies decided not to pay and Rambus had to litigate. They have a litigation stigma attached to their name now, but what do you expect them to do when their IP is being stolen? The big memory manufacturers wanted to fight Rambus in court and hope that a small company would buckle and fold due to their limited funds. That didn't happen.

Micron (one of the companies Rambus was suing for infringement) got the FTC involved... don't get me started how corrupt the FTC is. They ruled against Rambus. Rambus appealed to the FTC Administrative Law Judge and won on all counts. The FTC ALJ even remarked how the FTC's argument was so weak and flawed. The FTC wanted a full judge panel review and NOT one judge agreed to hear the case.

On top of that... ALL of the companies Rambus is suing was investigated by the Department of Justice. They ALL admitted to price-fixing SDRAM, DDR-DRAM and RDRAM - undercutting their prices to incur a loss in order to drive RDRAM out of the market.

They have won every major court decision since then. The law has sided with Rambus... and that all flavors of RAM have Rambus IP in there. It's only a matter of time right now.

Honestly, if you have any questions regarding Rambus, let me know. They are not a leech, they just want to be paid what is rightfully yours. How would you feel is you invented something groundbreaking, and instead of earning money for it, people stole it from you and called it their own? Would you just let it go and lose out on all that money, or would you be the "leech" trying to get what is due to you?

In investing with companies, I stick with cold hard facts. That means cash and competitive advantage.
Rambus currently has neither.

With Rambus, you're at the mercy of the court.
For you to be successful, RMBS has to win ALL their judgements. If they fail even one, their stock will most likely be in free fall.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: ricochet
Over 500 point drop for the DJIA. Brutal day indeed.

I think this is the worst DOW drop since 9/11 if I can recall correctly. It dropped close to 700 points that day.

I wish I had more ammo to buy RMBS.

What competitive advantage does RMBS have?

Nothing, they are a dirty leech of a company that stifles advancement of technology.

We normally agree JS80, but this is something you need to do a lot more research about. Rambus realized that the bandwidth of RAM was severly hindering the CPU. They created innovative and at that time, what many considered to be impossible technology. They do not manufacture anything, but rather depend on liscensing their IP to make money off royalties. A few companies decided not to pay and Rambus had to litigate. They have a litigation stigma attached to their name now, but what do you expect them to do when their IP is being stolen? The big memory manufacturers wanted to fight Rambus in court and hope that a small company would buckle and fold due to their limited funds. That didn't happen.

Micron (one of the companies Rambus was suing for infringement) got the FTC involved... don't get me started how corrupt the FTC is. They ruled against Rambus. Rambus appealed to the FTC Administrative Law Judge and won on all counts. The FTC ALJ even remarked how the FTC's argument was so weak and flawed. The FTC wanted a full judge panel review and NOT one judge agreed to hear the case.

On top of that... ALL of the companies Rambus is suing was investigated by the Department of Justice. They ALL admitted to price-fixing SDRAM, DDR-DRAM and RDRAM - undercutting their prices to incur a loss in order to drive RDRAM out of the market.

They have won every major court decision since then. The law has sided with Rambus... and that all flavors of RAM have Rambus IP in there. It's only a matter of time right now.

Honestly, if you have any questions regarding Rambus, let me know. They are not a leech, they just want to be paid what is rightfully yours. How would you feel is you invented something groundbreaking, and instead of earning money for it, people stole it from you and called it their own? Would you just let it go and lose out on all that money, or would you be the "leech" trying to get what is due to you?

You're at the mercy of the court with Rambus. If they lose or don't win outright, there goes your gamble/investment. I don't like playing all or nothing game. Especially on something I've no edge. I know courts are slow but this thing has dragged out like 8 years now. If this was clear and shut case like you think, stock would've reflected some of that. What I've learned over the years is that stocks do not lie. People do.

Naustica, I realized how long litigation can be... I've been in on this stock for almost a decade. I never said it was a clear and shut case, all court cases are convoluted to some degree. The fact is, the courts are seeing what RMBS long-term investors are seeing. It is very apparent with their rulings and summary judgements to date. A lot of people won't touch RMBS due to the complex nature of what is going on - they do not understand or have time to delve into what is happening with the courts.

You remember Cordis before they merged with J&J? That court case took alittle over 10 years to finalize, but in the end, the company got what it deserved and then some.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: ricochet
Over 500 point drop for the DJIA. Brutal day indeed.

I think this is the worst DOW drop since 9/11 if I can recall correctly. It dropped close to 700 points that day.

I wish I had more ammo to buy RMBS.

What competitive advantage does RMBS have?

Nothing, they are a dirty leech of a company that stifles advancement of technology.

We normally agree JS80, but this is something you need to do a lot more research about. Rambus realized that the bandwidth of RAM was severly hindering the CPU. They created innovative and at that time, what many considered to be impossible technology. They do not manufacture anything, but rather depend on liscensing their IP to make money off royalties. A few companies decided not to pay and Rambus had to litigate. They have a litigation stigma attached to their name now, but what do you expect them to do when their IP is being stolen? The big memory manufacturers wanted to fight Rambus in court and hope that a small company would buckle and fold due to their limited funds. That didn't happen.

Micron (one of the companies Rambus was suing for infringement) got the FTC involved... don't get me started how corrupt the FTC is. They ruled against Rambus. Rambus appealed to the FTC Administrative Law Judge and won on all counts. The FTC ALJ even remarked how the FTC's argument was so weak and flawed. The FTC wanted a full judge panel review and NOT one judge agreed to hear the case.

On top of that... ALL of the companies Rambus is suing was investigated by the Department of Justice. They ALL admitted to price-fixing SDRAM, DDR-DRAM and RDRAM - undercutting their prices to incur a loss in order to drive RDRAM out of the market.

They have won every major court decision since then. The law has sided with Rambus... and that all flavors of RAM have Rambus IP in there. It's only a matter of time right now.

Honestly, if you have any questions regarding Rambus, let me know. They are not a leech, they just want to be paid what is rightfully yours. How would you feel is you invented something groundbreaking, and instead of earning money for it, people stole it from you and called it their own? Would you just let it go and lose out on all that money, or would you be the "leech" trying to get what is due to you?

In investing with companies, I stick with cold hard facts. That means cash and competitive advantage.
Rambus currently has neither.

With Rambus, you're at the mercy of the court.
For you to be successful, RMBS has to win ALL their judgements. If they fail even one, their stock will most likely be in free fall.

Rambus still has cash and their competitive advantage is their IP portfolio.

Keep in mind, they have already WON infringement against Hynix (previously Hyundai). The federal court in the Northern District of CA who found in favor for Rambus against Hynix is also running the pony show against Samsung, Nanya and Micron. The question of whether the manufacturers infringe is not an issue. It's whether it is willful infringement. Before the trials started, the manufacturers had a Joint Defense Agreement and agreed to be bound by one other's court results. A judgement of willful infringement brings tremble damages for past owed money and a much higher royalty rate going forward. The other big court case is early next year where Rambus is bringing an Anti-Trust Suit worth billions of dollars against the manufacturers - which they have already confessed to the Department of Justice that they had price-fixed DRAM. In the anti-trust suit, it is not relevant whether the manufacturers intended to harm Rambus directly or not, but if Rambus was harmed by their actions. I don't want to sound like a cheerleader, but Rambus for the next 6-12 months is in its best court position in years. It is going to be very costly for the manufacturers unless a settlement can be ironed out before the AT suit goes green.

Mark my post and lets see what happens in the timeframe I specified. This year, I've been wrong before (misreading CPNE), and very right (shorting oil at $142)... but this is the one stock I have countless hours researching and analyzing. I am very confident that RMBS at $14 does not reflect at all the value of what has been happening in the courts.