***Official*** 2008 Stock Market Thread

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Sep 29, 2004
18,656
67
91
Originally posted by: ivan2
ameritrade's system is crashing as usual...

I just finished up after 10 minutes. 9:45->9:57 gave m,e no problems. Just alot of slow down. AS a vlaue investor, it's not like i have anything urgent that i need to do there.
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,656
67
91
Originally posted by: Special K
Originally posted by: AmpedSilence
what the hell is happening today?????

down 150, then up 400!!!!

The dow is up 410 points today! All of the world's financial problems are solved! The bull market is back in full swing!


If you look at history, you'd realize that we probably entered a bear market in 2002 and will probably be in one till 2015. Most people don't realize that bear markets mean that we trade sideways, not down.
 

LuckyTaxi

Diamond Member
Dec 24, 2000
6,044
23
81
- bought some shares (100) of AIG. let's hope I can gain a few bucks from it.
- bought another 800 shares at $0.19 of SKNY. I would've sold when it hit $0.51 but decided not to. I got in @ $0.13 and holding 4100 shares.
 

Special K

Diamond Member
Jun 18, 2000
7,098
0
76
Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
Originally posted by: Special K
Originally posted by: AmpedSilence
what the hell is happening today?????

down 150, then up 400!!!!

The dow is up 410 points today! All of the world's financial problems are solved! The bull market is back in full swing!


If you look at history, you'd realize that we probably entered a bear market in 2002 and will probably be in one till 2015. Most people don't realize that bear markets mean that we trade sideways, not down.

The market is rallying again today! It's the start of a new era! The government will buy back all toxic mortgage-backed securities, ending the credit crunch once and for all!

Buy, buy, buy!

Seriously though, I'm confused. Will the government's plan really solve everything, or are investors just being "irrationally exuberant" right now?
 

LuckyTaxi

Diamond Member
Dec 24, 2000
6,044
23
81
Originally posted by: Special K
Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
Originally posted by: Special K
Originally posted by: AmpedSilence
what the hell is happening today?????

down 150, then up 400!!!!

The dow is up 410 points today! All of the world's financial problems are solved! The bull market is back in full swing!


If you look at history, you'd realize that we probably entered a bear market in 2002 and will probably be in one till 2015. Most people don't realize that bear markets mean that we trade sideways, not down.

The market is rallying again today! It's the start of a new era! The government will buy back all toxic mortgage-backed securities, ending the credit crunch once and for all!

Buy, buy, buy!

Seriously though, I'm confused. Will the government's plan really solve everything, or are investors just being "irrationally exuberant" right now?

Probably the latter, but i hope this isn't the case!

 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,810
126
I'm bitter, sad, and happy today. I'm happy I made tens of thousands of dollar today off of this socialist move by the govt yet, I'm sad that part of capitalism died today. I'm bitter because I could've made so much more money in the long run had they allowed the natural cycle run its course. We would've likely crashed and you and I could've picked up quality companies for cheap and at historic prices to build our wealth for the future. We could've been on the ground floor of the rebuild. Now we must limp along for years with the damage done to the free market today. Sad day indeed.
 

Ballatician

Golden Member
Dec 6, 2007
1,985
0
0
Originally posted by: ivan2
man i saw the WB 17.5 put at a yummy price of 2.50 and I can't trade anything, this suck!!

I'm still considering WB @ 20.00 right now.

Anyone here hold a position in C? When did you get in?
 

Ballatician

Golden Member
Dec 6, 2007
1,985
0
0
I'm so mad at myself for not gettting in on WB yesterday after hearing all the reports about the Fed. Even now I don't want to go in at too high a price.
 

Auric

Diamond Member
Oct 11, 1999
9,591
2
71
Welp, those such as BAC which scooped up both CFC and MER on the cheap may be considered even better bargoons long term. Can you imagine owning at $20 (from a couple months ago) with a 12.8% dividend which is more likely to increase over time? Ominously, there have been the first hints of a reduction recently but perhaps those will not be necessary now.

Anyhoo... I have a bunch of UYG @ 16 which I could not frickin sell on open due to my brokerage being overloaded. I wanted to take some profit on the gap up and hopefully get in lower but as it is I just rode it out (roughly 25 to 21 to 23). Oh well, at least I was not holding SKF. The $64000 question is: what to do with it? It seems high to buy which is usually a good reason to sell but 'tis early in the game yet and "The Plan" has not yet been revealed. Hold o'er weekend? Buy more (average up)?

On a lighter note, on the Daily Show with Jon Stewart of 09-16 a flippant joke was made to buy WM. Having done so the next day would have doubled one's money over the next two days
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,810
126
I would advise against chasing things here. You'll likely get scared out once this artificial buying comes to an end. Due to today's historic action, we're not going to start another bull market for a long time and risk now remains once shorts are no longer able to support the current price action. The vacuum left by their death and the gap up in the chart creates a vacuum. Once the buying dries up, the rug could get pulled on the stock price real fast to fill the gap. I would take advantage of this rally to make some sales and start lightening up. Especially for you people who were dying days earlier.

I've to formulate a new plan for this new game over the weekend but my initial gut instinct is to sell my Kraft holdings as I think safe plays will be attacked and to buy commodities related stuff. I wanted to buy Posco and ConocoPhillips but today's news ruined my plans. Time to revise my gameplan.
 

Auric

Diamond Member
Oct 11, 1999
9,591
2
71
I hear you but it is not so much a matter of chasing as simply maximizing profit... or risking a bit more upside versus a bit more downside. I have no delusions about the fundamentals of financials and indeed will consider SKF by the time the SEC ban on short selling ends. However, since the FSA imposed a four-month ban the SEC may well extend. In the absence of shorting do you not think that financials prices will decline less abrubtly at least until earnings and "Ultimate" write-downs are declared if the "The Plan" goes through?

-
This just in on Bloomberg:

Ruth May, 75, a retired travel agent in Laguna Woods, said whenever she feels panicky, she calls her financial adviser.

``He tells me to calm down and take a walk with the cat,'' she said.

It is just such advice from so-called financial advisers that caused this mess in the first place. Have you ever tried to walk with a cat? Foolhardy at best.
 

ivan2

Diamond Member
Mar 6, 2000
5,772
0
0
www.heatware.com
my WB put got sold today during that little dip in the afternoon, I thought I had to wait until monday... but my low ball MRK order didn't got triggered =(
 

Auric

Diamond Member
Oct 11, 1999
9,591
2
71
Solars have been on a tear this week after dropping like a droppy thing on concerns of lower pricing (disregarding higher volume) and with the traditional/expected sell-off after earnings and the Valencia trade show. A few have exposure to LEH which will cause dilution and LDK just diluted a bit with an offering (check out their impressive plant progress).

I will consider dabbling a bit more on a pull back (perhaps TAN to average risk) before Spain's subsidy decree. Removing doubt should be positive even though the cap will be lowered dramatically (at least there is scuttlebutt of not being lowered quite as much).

The extension of US tax credits is still in limbo though and especially a dependency of the SPWR deal with PCG (interestingly, CY is supposedly spinning off not just for focus but to seperate itself from meh utilityesque profits but hey as long as there is growth). I think it is only a question of when though and therefore a matter of timing as always. The condition of stock markets in general is crucial of course however the outcome of the US election will not affect the necessity of an alt energy policy so should not matter as much as some fear.

Speaking of LEH (or rather LEHMQ), it's fun to dream of getting in at a nickel yesterday innit (high of .25 today)? Closer to reality, I did in fact consider MS at $14 but hesitated and by the time of $16 figgered it had "recovered" and I had missed it. Natch! At least selling at the open today ($38) would have been a Good Thing in retrospect however doing so with LEHMQ would have been painful to watch it go from a seemingly fantastic double to pants-peeing quadruple or quintuple! :Q

It has been an interesting couple of weeks with added flair points for such details as the massive buying at precisely 1:00 and 3:00 yesterday. I would love to hear the back story on stuff like that.

Anyhoo, the past is past and how are we to make s'more monies next week?
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,810
126
Originally posted by: Auric

It has been an interesting couple of weeks with added flair points for such details as the massive buying at precisely 1:00 and 3:00 yesterday. I would love to hear the back story on stuff like that.

Anyhoo, the past is past and how are we to make s'more monies next week?

1:00pm buying yesterday was triggered by news of ban of shorting of financial stocks by the London Exchange. 3:00pm buying was triggered by news of potential RTC like bailout by Paulson and the Fed.

I checked the market yesterday little before 1:00pm and was shocked to see GS at around $86 and MS at $12 and change. I shook my head and went back to work. After thinking about it for about 30 minutes, I went back to buy both only to find GS back at $100 and MS at $17 and change. I decided to wait for the redemption hour at 3:30pm and see then. I checked the market around 2:45pm and saw it was down and picking up steam. About 20 minutes later I heard on the radio that the Dow was up 300 and some points. I thought he had misspoke and it was down 300 points. But then he repeated saying it was no mistake. I checked and sure enough it was with everything zooming up in a blink of an eye.

I figured Hank and Ben might pull some sort of stunt in front of option expiration for maximum effect. But not in my wildest dream did I think they would sell capitalism and adopt socialism.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: Naustica
I figured Hank and Ben might pull some sort of stunt in front of option expiration for maximum effect.

But not in my wildest dream did I think they would sell capitalism and adopt socialism.

Oh come on the market was never capitalism. :roll:
 

Pliablemoose

Lifer
Oct 11, 1999
25,195
0
56
Originally posted by: Naustica

I figured Hank and Ben might pull some sort of stunt in front of option expiration for maximum effect. But not in my wildest dream did I think they would sell capitalism and adopt socialism.

Yep, caught my ass flat footed with my pants down, I read a bit about their meeting with congress, sounds like they scared the hell out of those twits and conned them into having the taxpayers bail out everyone.

I wonder who we'll publicly lynch over this?

 

TridenT

Lifer
Sep 4, 2006
16,800
45
91
A-I-G HAS THE BEST STOCK EVAR.... Damn, should have bought a 1,000 shares and sold them. (They hit like 1.7, could have bought and made a few grand)
 

LuckyTaxi

Diamond Member
Dec 24, 2000
6,044
23
81
Originally posted by: TridenTBoy3555
A-I-G HAS THE BEST STOCK EVAR.... Damn, should have bought a 1,000 shares and sold them. (They hit like 1.7, could have bought and made a few grand)

yea tell me about it. I got a hundred share, so here's hoping to a much larger gain in the next few months!
 

imported_Lothar

Diamond Member
Aug 10, 2006
4,559
1
0
Originally posted by: Azurik
I bought a tiny bit more of GE and RMBS this afternoon.

My KFT position is holding up pretty well. I'm actually up like 14% or so on that, and now it's replacing AIG on the DOW.

WTF? That is gay.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,810
126
I took down some American Express at $37 for a trade. If the govt bailout is going to include autos, credit cards, and who know what other debts, then some of the fear I had of this credit crisis spreading next to cars and credit cards is temporary relieved. Plus they added American Express, Capital One, GM, GE, and others to "no short" list today as well. It's off the morning pop so I'm taking a shot. I'm buying into this decline as I think as Turnaround Tuesday could spark a minor rally.
 
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