***Official*** 2008 Stock Market Thread

[Regs]

Originally posted by: AmpedSilence

Originally posted by: ricochet
You win some, you lose some. That's the game, sohcrates. My worst one was Jones Soda (JSDA). Got in at $9 and it's now $0.47

yeah, I got in on GKK at $14, right now its at $0.90. I dont understand why its doing poorly, strong asset portfolio, very little debt, and they were paying almost 0.63/share dividend. Plus, over that year, it was shouldering right around $16 then it would bounce back to around $22. So, I got in at $14, only to loss a crap load.

You can thank the speculators for that. Likely a lot of hedge funds and other large stock holders pulled out to a more secure investment to weather the storm for a fee months or even years. When they pull out, others follow suite so they won't risk to much of a loss. Same reason why gas is now 1.90 a gallon and not 4.00+ a gallon because of speculators.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: Naustica
Free falling. S&P 840 support broke. We already used the bounce from there before. It's ugly and I'm still not buying. I do see some crazy values in technology space.

I don't understand the whole "resistance/support" thing. Are you saying that investors will be very hesitant to let a major index drop below its previous low value? That makes no sense to me. It seems like a purely psychological decision.

Then again, investors aren't rational and there is an entire field of academic study devoted to behavioral economics, so maybe this is just the way it is.

Technical analysis does not an ounce of sense make.

Peter Lynch: "Charts are great for predicting the past."
Warren Buffett: "I realized technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts upside down and didn't get a different answer. If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people in the world would be librarians."

 

[hiromizu]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: Naustica
Free falling. S&P 840 support broke. We already used the bounce from there before. It's ugly and I'm still not buying. I do see some crazy values in technology space.

I don't understand the whole "resistance/support" thing. Are you saying that investors will be very hesitant to let a major index drop below its previous low value? That makes no sense to me. It seems like a purely psychological decision.

Then again, investors aren't rational and there is an entire field of academic study devoted to behavioral economics, so maybe this is just the way it is.

Technical analysis does not an ounce of sense make.

Peter Lynch: "Charts are great for predicting the past."
Warren Buffett: "I realized technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts upside down and didn't get a different answer. If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people in the world would be librarians."

Exactly. In fact, it's a great idea to buy now since everything is so low. AMD is a great company that makes great products and used to trade at over $45 a share. At $1.90, it is truly a bargain.

 

[alphatarget1]

Screw this, I'm pulling my cash back out into my online savings. If I lose what I have invested so far this year, no biggie. This market is just too scary to go in.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: Naustica
Free falling. S&P 840 support broke. We already used the bounce from there before. It's ugly and I'm still not buying. I do see some crazy values in technology space.

I don't understand the whole "resistance/support" thing. Are you saying that investors will be very hesitant to let a major index drop below its previous low value? That makes no sense to me. It seems like a purely psychological decision.

Then again, investors aren't rational and there is an entire field of academic study devoted to behavioral economics, so maybe this is just the way it is.

Technical analysis does not an ounce of sense make.

Peter Lynch: "Charts are great for predicting the past."
Warren Buffett: "I realized technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts upside down and didn't get a different answer. If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people in the world would be librarians."

Technical analysis is useful for the short term. This is 100% traders market. All traders look at technicals of the market and the individual stocks even if they don't rely on it 100%. You don't have to be a technician to understand resistance/support and simple patterns like head and shoulder. I'm not a technician but I do glance at charts. One thing you have to remember if you're technician is that charts don't work in a crash. You have to throw the charts out during that time and close your eyes and buy.

Look for the 840 to turn into resistance on the way up. That was decent support before so I don't expect us to break through first time if and when we get back there. That will be good place to sell the trading shares you pick up during the current plunge lower. 780 is minor resistance as well but much smaller weaker one.

 

[Slew Foot]

Damn financial have gotten killed these last few days, should have held on to my puts. Oh well, never hurts to take a profit.

 

[ponyo]

Sold 1/2 of the COP at $47.75 and bought AMKR at $1.55. I plan to build a large AMKR position.

 

[maddogchen]

Citigroup up 50%. Anyone buy in at 3.84 friday?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: hiromizu

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: Naustica
Free falling. S&P 840 support broke. We already used the bounce from there before. It's ugly and I'm still not buying. I do see some crazy values in technology space.

I don't understand the whole "resistance/support" thing. Are you saying that investors will be very hesitant to let a major index drop below its previous low value? That makes no sense to me. It seems like a purely psychological decision.

Then again, investors aren't rational and there is an entire field of academic study devoted to behavioral economics, so maybe this is just the way it is.

Technical analysis does not an ounce of sense make.

Peter Lynch: "Charts are great for predicting the past."
Warren Buffett: "I realized technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts upside down and didn't get a different answer. If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people in the world would be librarians."

Exactly. In fact, it's a great idea to buy now since everything is so low. AMD is a great company that makes great products and used to trade at over $45 a share. At $1.90, it is truly a bargain.

What is AMD worth and why? You say it is a true bargain. So, what is intrinsic value and how did you predict future free cash flows with certainty 5, 10, 20 years out?

I'd assume you will hit me with no answer or the typical "It's only $500 bucks" answer. Or some other excuse. Fact is, you don't know why you are buying AMD.

Happy speculating (note that I did not refer to what you are doing as investing). What you are basically doing is referred to as greater fool theory:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory
Your next step is to "invest" in art.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I hope people realize that unemployment will only get worse along with the fact that we are going to get pretty damned close to a depression (by technical definition) if we simply do not hit a depression.

There will be more opportunities down the road. Why the hell anyone would gamble with tech (like AMD) is beyond me. I guess that's why some are speculators (while they say they are investors)


I own a handful of banks and I've ridden this nightmare for a while. And I am not concerend. The companies I own are not going out of business and I bought at reasoanble prices.

Remember:
"in the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine" - Ben Graham

No one can predict short term price movements. All you can do is invest in wonderful companies at a discount to intrinsic value knowing that 5,10,20 years from now you will have done very well. Trying to predict what will happen tomorrow is a crap shoot.

 

[Cal166]

Originally posted by: maddogchen
Citigroup up 50%. Anyone buy in at 3.84 friday?

Got in at 3.75 for a few hundred shares. I added to my position so I am still down from owning C.

 

[Ricochet]

Originally posted by: maddogchen
Citigroup up 50%. Anyone buy in at 3.84 friday?

Up 65% as of this typing. I ain't brave enough to touch any of these banks.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: maddogchen
Citigroup up 50%. Anyone buy in at 3.84 friday?

I was going to buy some lottery ticket to flip if it opened near the close. over billion shares traded Friday

It gapped up so I didn't get the chance. I would've sold half at open and put a trailing stop on the rest if I did though.

I got some COP and AMKR so I don't feel too bad about missing out. Opportunities are made up easier than losses.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
I hope people realize that unemployment will only get worse along with the fact that we are going to get pretty damned close to a depression (by technical definition) if we simply do not hit a depression.

There will be more opportunities down the road. Why the hell anyone would gamble with tech (like AMD) is beyond me. I guess that's why some are speculators (while they say they are investors)


I own a handful of banks and I've ridden this nightmare for a while. And I am not concerend. The companies I own are not going out of business and I bought at reasoanble prices.

Remember:
"in the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine" - Ben Graham

No one can predict short term price movements. All you can do is invest in wonderful companies at a discount to intrinsic value knowing that 5,10,20 years from now you will have done very well. Trying to predict what will happen tomorrow is a crap shoot.

Banks and financials are value trap. That said a very smart credit guy I follow who called the BKX index to hit 30s when it was in the 80s bought the financial index on Friday for a trade back to 50s.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Banks and financials were value traps. Have you seen the current quotes for the likes of USB and WFC?

That not value traps anymore, their price has been killed by the short sighted and panic stricken.

Valuing them is difficult admittedly. But buying quality is a requirement.

The prices you see now are being caused by deleveraging over a few months when the leveraging was built up over years. I wish I understand why BNI is worth north of $80 (because WE \B is buying) but I don't. I would buy wit ha 4% yield though (but that is closer to $40 than the current $70).

JNJ is also very attractive right now. And much safer than banks.

I guess I will not recommend specific banks right now, but there is no question that 10 years from now the geniuses will seen as the ones that are buying into them right now. Heck, that even includes BRK!

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: hiromizu

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: Naustica
Free falling. S&P 840 support broke. We already used the bounce from there before. It's ugly and I'm still not buying. I do see some crazy values in technology space.

I don't understand the whole "resistance/support" thing. Are you saying that investors will be very hesitant to let a major index drop below its previous low value? That makes no sense to me. It seems like a purely psychological decision.

Then again, investors aren't rational and there is an entire field of academic study devoted to behavioral economics, so maybe this is just the way it is.

Technical analysis does not an ounce of sense make.

Peter Lynch: "Charts are great for predicting the past."
Warren Buffett: "I realized technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts upside down and didn't get a different answer. If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people in the world would be librarians."

Exactly. In fact, it's a great idea to buy now since everything is so low. AMD is a great company that makes great products and used to trade at over $45 a share. At $1.90, it is truly a bargain.

What is AMD worth and why? You say it is a true bargain. So, what is intrinsic value and how did you predict future free cash flows with certainty 5, 10, 20 years out?

I'd assume you will hit me with no answer or the typical "It's only $500 bucks" answer. Or some other excuse. Fact is, you don't know why you are buying AMD.

Happy speculating (note that I did not refer to what you are doing as investing). What you are basically doing is referred to as greater fool theory:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory
Your next step is to "invest" in art.

Let me ask you what' a bank's worth? Why do you think it's a bargain? How can you even evaluate the balance sheet when the smartest people on Wall St even can't? They say most of these banks are insolvent and only propped up by the govt. Do you even have a clue what's on your bank's balance sheet?

At least with techs and others you can evaluate the balance sheet. Banks, good luck.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Nope, I can not value banks. I can look at a WFC and know that the dividend is not going to get cut though and know that I am better off buying WFC instead of a CD because I will get a better yield and I own something that will grow over time. Banks are not going to fail in mass. Some will fall, but the USBs, BBTs, BACs and WFC of the world will be here in 10 years.

If you disagree with the above, tech stocks will prove to be just as bad as investments since no one in the US will be buying "toys" because if there is no one lending money, the unemployment rate will hit 100%.

You don't seem to understand tech though. I can not tell you where AMD will be in 10 years. Or Intel. Will you have a Windows based PC or will Apple have destroyed them? Will Google kill off both Apple and Microsoft? Did you think that MSFT would come out wit this thing called the Zune 10 years ago? If you did, did you think it would own all media? Or would you have bragged about how Apple would have the iPod? If you picked the iPod as some wonder in 1998, you would have been laughed at. Tech balance sheets are good for one thing. Telling you what has happened in the past. The unfortunate truth most people here ignore is that there is no certainty of what those balance sheets will look like in the future. So, please tell me more about the past.

Now, a stupid question. If banks survive (which they will) and some will with no doubt survive (WFC and USB), do you think they will still be doing business with people buying homes, running businesses and requiring investment services? There is certainty here and as banks fail, good ones will simply get MORE business. granted they might make less money in the short run, but in the long run they will grow.

Tech .... if it weren't for the herd mentality at ATOT, there would be much better investors here. Lothar is probably one of the best at ATOT. I'm mostly interested in a comic book called "Valuing AMD" by hiromizu or yourself.

If you really want tech that bad, go buy ISIL. A DCF might tell you it is worth $40 while it is selling for $10/share. The funny thing is that I would not touch it since the future free cash flows can be predicted with little certainty.

Buy JNJ which is worth north of $100 and sellign at under $60. Now that is a smart move.

 

[hiromizu]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
Nope, I can not value banks. I can look at a WFC and know that the dividend is not going to get cut though and know that I am better off buying WFC instead of a CD because I will get a better yield and I own something that will grow over time. Banks are not going to fail in mass. Some will fall, but the USBs, BBTs, BACs and WFC of the world will be here in 10 years.

If you disagree with the above, tech stocks will prove to be just as bad as investments since no one in the US will be buying "toys" because if there is no one lending money, the unemployment rate will hit 100%.

You don't seem to understand tech though. I can not tell you where AMD will be in 10 years. Or Intel. Will you have a Windows based PC or will Apple have destroyed them? Will Google kill off both Apple and Microsoft? Did you think that MSFT would come out wit this thing called the Zune 10 years ago? If you did, did you think it would own all media? Or would you have bragged about how Apple would have the iPod? If you picked the iPod as some wonder in 1998, you would have been laughed at. Tech balance sheets are good for one thing. Telling you what has happened in the past. The unfortunate truth most people here ignore is that there is no certainty of what those balance sheets will look like in the future. So, please tell me more about the past.

Now, a stupid question. If banks survive (which they will) and some will with no doubt survive (WFC and USB), do you think they will still be doing business with people buying homes, running businesses and requiring investment services? There is certainty here and as banks fail, good ones will simply get MORE business. granted they might make less money in the short run, but in the long run they will grow.

Tech .... if it weren't for the herd mentality at ATOT, there would be much better investors here. Lothar is probably one of the best at ATOT. I'm mostly interested in a comic book called "Valuing AMD" by hiromizu or yourself.

If you really want tech that bad, go buy ISIL. A DCF might tell you it is worth $40 while it is selling for $10/share. The funny thing is that I would not touch it since the future free cash flows can be predicted with little certainty.

Buy JNJ which is worth north of $100 and sellign at under $60. Now that is a smart move.

I WAS being enormously sarcastic about my remarks on AMD.

 

[ponyo]

So you can't value banks yet you buy them. So you're basically buying on hope. Which is same as the people who buy AMD or any other tech.

I'm only interested in only one tech here and that's AMKR.

Look at the action at S&P 840. That was the support before and now it's resistance. I didn't think we would break through first time and I still don't. We will see.

 

[ponyo]

Sold the rest of COP at $49.50. Happy to take $7.50/shr.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: Naustica
So you can't value banks yet you buy them. So you're basically buying on hope. Which is same as the people who buy AMD or any other tech.

I'm only interested in only one tech here and that's AMKR.

Look at the action at S&P 840. That was the support before and now it's resistance. I didn't think we would break through first time and I still don't. We will see.

Nope, I'm buying for the yield on the highest quality institutions which will have a greater market share a year from now(WFC = WFC + WB - $10B). And will have a growing dividend over the next 10-20 years. I'm not trying to find hte loosers, I am just trying to find the obvious winners. Might as well add BRK to that list.

Nope not buying on hope, buying on the value of dividends and future dividends.

Buying AMD is to assume that Intel and IBM will not crush them. The thing is, you can take make assumptions about the future for IBM, Intel and AMD and there is a funny phenomenon. You can switch future projections between them and kinda go "ya, makes sense".

The gov't finally understands what is wrong. Treasury Secretary Paulson showed that the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury were finally beginning to understand that the core issue of this crisis is CAPITAL deficiency and not LIQUIDITY. So, banks are getting all this capital at a 5% interest rate I thin it is.

 

[ponyo]

With AMKR purchase up 25% from the morning and S&P stalling here at 840 resistance, discipline dictates I sell the shares and lock in the profits. However, I'm calling an audible and will hold this position. I want to build, not trim.

 

[TallBill]

Good lord, everything was up all day, but in the last hour its gone way up.

Dow above 8500
S&P above 850
Nasdaq trying for 1500

 

[TallBill]

Biggest 2 day gain in 11 years and nobody cares?

 

[bignateyk]

Originally posted by: TallBill
Biggest 2 day gain in 11 years and nobody cares?

Why? We are still below where we were 4 trading days ago...