***Official*** 2008 Stock Market Thread

[Azurik]

My Rambus price target is now $1,175 by next year.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Azurik
My Rambus price target is now $1,175 by next year.

I'm kidding on that, just trying to sway the fights.

On a gleeful note, my non-retirement brokerage accounts broke into year-to-date positive territory because of RMBS!

401k still outperforming the indices, but when you're down 28%... the difference between that and -40% S&P doesn't seem like a large gap.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: DomS

Originally posted by: bignateyk

Originally posted by: DomS
OK, so instead of being spiteful I'll actually explain what each of those is.

So we can bow down to your infinite financial wisdom? :roll:

I'm sure if he actually gave a shit he could just look it up on google and find out in 3 seconds. I think you're missing the point.

re-read the post. edited. Stop acting like asswipes. I'm just saying I like those 2 particular securities. If you don't like them, don't pay attention to what I'm saying. I'm hoping that if I post a few I like, other investors (obviously not you or nauseoustica or whatever) will post ones that they like, and reasons why. Collectively we're probably smarter than any individual.

Now stop acting like a dickhead cyber-gangster. I never said I was better than you or the retard that replied to me first. Stop putting words in my mouth.

You're an investor? :laugh: First, you need money to invest. You lost the little money you had to the market this year following retarded mumbo jumbo crap you don't even understand.

click me

Slow down. This game is hard enough when you understand what and why you're buying and selling. Making things complicated for the sake of being complicated is just foolish.

 

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: DomS

Originally posted by: bignateyk

Originally posted by: DomS
OK, so instead of being spiteful I'll actually explain what each of those is.

So we can bow down to your infinite financial wisdom? :roll:

I'm sure if he actually gave a shit he could just look it up on google and find out in 3 seconds. I think you're missing the point.

re-read the post. edited. Stop acting like asswipes. I'm just saying I like those 2 particular securities. If you don't like them, don't pay attention to what I'm saying. I'm hoping that if I post a few I like, other investors (obviously not you or nauseoustica or whatever) will post ones that they like, and reasons why. Collectively we're probably smarter than any individual.

Now stop acting like a dickhead cyber-gangster. I never said I was better than you or the retard that replied to me first. Stop putting words in my mouth.

You're an investor? :laugh: First, you need money to invest. You lost the little money you had to the market this year following retarded mumbo jumbo crap you don't even understand.

click me

Slow down. This game is hard enough when you understand what and why you're buying and selling. Making things complicated for the sake of being complicated is just foolish.

Owned


And Rambus is awesome so far.

 

[ponyo]

I initiated a small starter position in PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long (DXO). Just 1,000 shares at the moment at $3.01. I also have small starter position in PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA). I want to allocate small portion of my portfolio to commodities. I also want to pick up some gold but not at the current prices.

 

[Ricochet]

Late day rally after the rate cut. Yay!

 

[ponyo]

Stopped out of AMKR @ $2.16.

 

[Azurik]

I am officially long oil now - just bought USO at $33.80 a share... oil trading around $35 a barrel.

 

[Azurik]

FYI - just came out and not hitting all the major newswire yet...

The manufactuers (Hynix, Samsung, Nanya and Micron) have admitted to infringing Rambus' IP. They are not going to contest this in next month's trial.

They are contesting invalidity only.

I bought a little more in case something happens over the weekend. There's suppose to meet with the Judge at 5pm EST today.

CHOO-CHOO goes the RMBS bus!

 

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: Azurik
FYI - just came out and not hitting all the major newswire yet...

The manufactuers (Hynix, Samsung, Nanya and Micron) have admitted to infringing Rambus' IP. They are not going to contest this in next month's trial.

They are contesting invalidity only.

I bought a little more in case something happens over the weekend. There's suppose to meet with the Judge at 5pm EST today.

CHOO-CHOO goes the RMBS bus!

Thanks for the tip, man this thing has been on a TEAR since I got it.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Azurik
Hi Lothar,

To answer your questions:

I am actually hoping Qimonda, Micron and Hynix goes bankrupt. Qimonda is only 1 of 3 companies who can produce XDR (Samsung and Elpida being the other 2). All I care about is the back payments they owe to RMBS, it doesn't matter if they survive in the future. All companies are losing money on every DRAM being sold. They overproduced to steal market share and have an oversupply issue now. The only company who is a shoe-in to get out of this mess is Samsung thanks to their diversified businesses and cash position. Samsung (and 2 or 3 companies left surviving) will gladly pay high royalties to RMBS since they own the entire market. This is a positive for RMBS. They don't care who pays them in the future, as long as they get paid. Consolidation in the DRAM industry is a good thing.


Side Note: There is risk to everything, and Rambus is definitely in that risk category. The risk/reward ratio heavily leans the reward aspect in this case. Given the proper analysis, $100 does not sound crazy. It's just a long ways off from the $10 we are now at.

If they go bankrupt, how does that help RMBS shareholders?

Wouldn't RMBS have to get to the back of the line like everyone else?
Behind the various governments that loaned/will loan money to them(korea, germany), secured senior notes holders, unsecured senior notes holders, regular bond holders, preferred share holders.
Those people need to get their cut first.
There won't be a penny remaining for their common equity/stock holders or RMBS after that.

What is the time frame for your $100/share target? I wasn't sure if you gave one earlier.
Pretty easy to talk about a price target without giving a time frame....No need to become like Jim Cramer.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Azurik
My Rambus price target is now $1,175 by next year.

I'm kidding on that, just trying to sway the fights.

On a gleeful note, my non-retirement brokerage accounts broke into year-to-date positive territory because of RMBS!

401k still outperforming the indices, but when you're down 28%... the difference between that and -40% S&P doesn't seem like a large gap.

I only shook my head sideways when I saw that earlier.
Decided not to even waste my time responding.

Good thing I missed your bait.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Azurik
FYI - just came out and not hitting all the major newswire yet...

The manufactuers (Hynix, Samsung, Nanya and Micron) have admitted to infringing Rambus' IP. They are not going to contest this in next month's trial.

They are contesting invalidity only.

I bought a little more in case something happens over the weekend. There's suppose to meet with the Judge at 5pm EST today.

CHOO-CHOO goes the RMBS bus!

The train won't reach $100 anytime soon.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Azurik
Hi Lothar,

To answer your questions:

I am actually hoping Qimonda, Micron and Hynix goes bankrupt. Qimonda is only 1 of 3 companies who can produce XDR (Samsung and Elpida being the other 2). All I care about is the back payments they owe to RMBS, it doesn't matter if they survive in the future. All companies are losing money on every DRAM being sold. They overproduced to steal market share and have an oversupply issue now. The only company who is a shoe-in to get out of this mess is Samsung thanks to their diversified businesses and cash position. Samsung (and 2 or 3 companies left surviving) will gladly pay high royalties to RMBS since they own the entire market. This is a positive for RMBS. They don't care who pays them in the future, as long as they get paid. Consolidation in the DRAM industry is a good thing.


Side Note: There is risk to everything, and Rambus is definitely in that risk category. The risk/reward ratio heavily leans the reward aspect in this case. Given the proper analysis, $100 does not sound crazy. It's just a long ways off from the $10 we are now at.

If they go bankrupt, how does that help RMBS shareholders?

Wouldn't RMBS have to get to the back of the line like everyone else?
Behind the various governments that loaned/will loan money to them(korea, germany), secured senior notes holders, unsecured senior notes holders, regular bond holders, preferred share holders.
Those people need to get their cut first.
There won't be a penny remaining for their common equity/stock holders or RMBS after that.

What is the time frame for your $100/share target? I wasn't sure if you gave one earlier.
Pretty easy to talk about a price target without giving a time frame....No need to become like Jim Cramer.

Lothar,

No, they don't have to go to the back of the line. The antitrust trial has joint and several liability. It laymen's term, it doesn't matter who survives at the very end... whoever is left standing bears the burden of paying ALL penalties and damages. That's why it's not important if most of them go bankrupt. Two will survive this as Intel would not want to depend on only want DRAMarai.

Last week, the manufacturers stated they were liable for $3.7 billion dollars in the antitrust trial, and $3.6 billion dollars in the upcoming January trial. This excludes any treble damages and compulsory licensing/injuctions of products.

It's a huge amount, and if Samsung is the last one to survive, so be it. They have a big enough cash war chest to be able to pay the entire thing.

As for my $100 - I won't pull a Jim Cramer on you, but I also learned with RMBS predicting an exact timeframe is a impossibility. I will state this. I think RMBS will go to $40-$50 by the end of this summer. After these specific two trial ends and appeals are exhausted, this is where I will say RMBS will be at least $100. I am not pulling this number out of thin air, but rather, I gave valuations in an earlier post why that would be considered fair value.

We'll see how it plays out and I'll obviously be here to gloat or take the heat... either way. It's been a good Christmas so far though, with RMBS being up over 200% in less than a month. If I didn't know what was going on, I would have probably dumped the stock while it was falling... but because the story hasn't changed, I added a bunch under $10 and a ton at $5 and change. In this market environment, I'll take it.

 

[ponyo]

Had order to pick up another 1k shares of DXO at $2. It hit $2 at 12:25pm on heavy volume with almost 2 million shares traded that instant yet I didn't get my fill. What bull. It's not lot of money but it's the principle.

 

[zimu]

so what do people think, what's going to shoot up new years? historically most stocks fly up new years... i'm thinking dump some money into RMBS given all the predictions of it going up a fair amount by summer. anything else to keep my eye on?

 

[DomS]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: DomS

Originally posted by: bignateyk

Originally posted by: DomS
OK, so instead of being spiteful I'll actually explain what each of those is.

So we can bow down to your infinite financial wisdom? :roll:

I'm sure if he actually gave a shit he could just look it up on google and find out in 3 seconds. I think you're missing the point.

re-read the post. edited. Stop acting like asswipes. I'm just saying I like those 2 particular securities. If you don't like them, don't pay attention to what I'm saying. I'm hoping that if I post a few I like, other investors (obviously not you or nauseoustica or whatever) will post ones that they like, and reasons why. Collectively we're probably smarter than any individual.

Now stop acting like a dickhead cyber-gangster. I never said I was better than you or the retard that replied to me first. Stop putting words in my mouth.

You're an investor? :laugh: First, you need money to invest. You lost the little money you had to the market this year following retarded mumbo jumbo crap you don't even understand.

click me

Slow down. This game is hard enough when you understand what and why you're buying and selling. Making things complicated for the sake of being complicated is just foolish.

Owned


And Rambus is awesome so far.

I've made it back. THat's 'how the market works'. Stop being fags and posting shit on here and actually do some DD and maybe you'd be able to make money like I do. Market crash took 85% of what I had and I've made it back quicker than I could've imagined.

You probably couldn't even understand what i wrote when I just laid it out simple enough for a 4th grader to get. If you knew a damn thing about the market you wouldn't be criticizing me, you'd be out doing your own thing. Stop acting like a jealous bitch. Now stfu when grown men are talking fucktard.

edit: Oh and if you disagree with my explanation of those indicators, please correct me....oh wait, they were spot on. Go die in a fire. And for the record I make more in a decent week than you probably make in a month

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Azurik
Hi Lothar,

To answer your questions:

I am actually hoping Qimonda, Micron and Hynix goes bankrupt. Qimonda is only 1 of 3 companies who can produce XDR (Samsung and Elpida being the other 2). All I care about is the back payments they owe to RMBS, it doesn't matter if they survive in the future. All companies are losing money on every DRAM being sold. They overproduced to steal market share and have an oversupply issue now. The only company who is a shoe-in to get out of this mess is Samsung thanks to their diversified businesses and cash position. Samsung (and 2 or 3 companies left surviving) will gladly pay high royalties to RMBS since they own the entire market. This is a positive for RMBS. They don't care who pays them in the future, as long as they get paid. Consolidation in the DRAM industry is a good thing.


Side Note: There is risk to everything, and Rambus is definitely in that risk category. The risk/reward ratio heavily leans the reward aspect in this case. Given the proper analysis, $100 does not sound crazy. It's just a long ways off from the $10 we are now at.

If they go bankrupt, how does that help RMBS shareholders?

Wouldn't RMBS have to get to the back of the line like everyone else?
Behind the various governments that loaned/will loan money to them(korea, germany), secured senior notes holders, unsecured senior notes holders, regular bond holders, preferred share holders.
Those people need to get their cut first.
There won't be a penny remaining for their common equity/stock holders or RMBS after that.

What is the time frame for your $100/share target? I wasn't sure if you gave one earlier.
Pretty easy to talk about a price target without giving a time frame....No need to become like Jim Cramer.

Lothar,

No, they don't have to go to the back of the line. The antitrust trial has joint and several liability. It laymen's term, it doesn't matter who survives at the very end... whoever is left standing bears the burden of paying ALL penalties and damages. That's why it's not important if most of them go bankrupt. Two will survive this as Intel would not want to depend on only want DRAMarai.

Last week, the manufacturers stated they were liable for $3.7 billion dollars in the antitrust trial, and $3.6 billion dollars in the upcoming January trial. This excludes any treble damages and compulsory licensing/injuctions of products.

It's a huge amount, and if Samsung is the last one to survive, so be it. They have a big enough cash war chest to be able to pay the entire thing.

Talk about iAnal.

Why should Samsung be held entirely responsible for what Hynix, Micron, and others did and vice versa?

Makes absolutely no sense.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: DomS

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: DomS

Originally posted by: bignateyk

Originally posted by: DomS
OK, so instead of being spiteful I'll actually explain what each of those is.

So we can bow down to your infinite financial wisdom? :roll:

I'm sure if he actually gave a shit he could just look it up on google and find out in 3 seconds. I think you're missing the point.

re-read the post. edited. Stop acting like asswipes. I'm just saying I like those 2 particular securities. If you don't like them, don't pay attention to what I'm saying. I'm hoping that if I post a few I like, other investors (obviously not you or nauseoustica or whatever) will post ones that they like, and reasons why. Collectively we're probably smarter than any individual.

Now stop acting like a dickhead cyber-gangster. I never said I was better than you or the retard that replied to me first. Stop putting words in my mouth.

You're an investor? :laugh: First, you need money to invest. You lost the little money you had to the market this year following retarded mumbo jumbo crap you don't even understand.

click me

Slow down. This game is hard enough when you understand what and why you're buying and selling. Making things complicated for the sake of being complicated is just foolish.

Owned


And Rambus is awesome so far.

I've made it back. THat's 'how the market works'. Stop being fags and posting shit on here and actually do some DD and maybe you'd be able to make money like I do. Market crash took 85% of what I had and I've made it back quicker than I could've imagined.

You probably couldn't even understand what i wrote when I just laid it out simple enough for a 4th grader to get. If you knew a damn thing about the market you wouldn't be criticizing me, you'd be out doing your own thing. Stop acting like a jealous bitch. Now stfu when grown men are talking fucktard.

edit: Oh and if you disagree with my explanation of those indicators, please correct me....oh wait, they were spot on. Go die in a fire. And for the record I make more in a decent week than you probably make in a month

Great, another moron who trades based on herding mentality by looking through a stock's volume and technical analysis. :roll:

Oh, and I'll be the 1st one to call bullshit on the bold part.
To recover from an 85% loss, you need a 667% gain.
Simple arithmetic.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Azurik
Hi Lothar,

To answer your questions:

I am actually hoping Qimonda, Micron and Hynix goes bankrupt. Qimonda is only 1 of 3 companies who can produce XDR (Samsung and Elpida being the other 2). All I care about is the back payments they owe to RMBS, it doesn't matter if they survive in the future. All companies are losing money on every DRAM being sold. They overproduced to steal market share and have an oversupply issue now. The only company who is a shoe-in to get out of this mess is Samsung thanks to their diversified businesses and cash position. Samsung (and 2 or 3 companies left surviving) will gladly pay high royalties to RMBS since they own the entire market. This is a positive for RMBS. They don't care who pays them in the future, as long as they get paid. Consolidation in the DRAM industry is a good thing.


Side Note: There is risk to everything, and Rambus is definitely in that risk category. The risk/reward ratio heavily leans the reward aspect in this case. Given the proper analysis, $100 does not sound crazy. It's just a long ways off from the $10 we are now at.

If they go bankrupt, how does that help RMBS shareholders?

Wouldn't RMBS have to get to the back of the line like everyone else?
Behind the various governments that loaned/will loan money to them(korea, germany), secured senior notes holders, unsecured senior notes holders, regular bond holders, preferred share holders.
Those people need to get their cut first.
There won't be a penny remaining for their common equity/stock holders or RMBS after that.

What is the time frame for your $100/share target? I wasn't sure if you gave one earlier.
Pretty easy to talk about a price target without giving a time frame....No need to become like Jim Cramer.

Lothar,

No, they don't have to go to the back of the line. The antitrust trial has joint and several liability. It laymen's term, it doesn't matter who survives at the very end... whoever is left standing bears the burden of paying ALL penalties and damages. That's why it's not important if most of them go bankrupt. Two will survive this as Intel would not want to depend on only want DRAMarai.

Last week, the manufacturers stated they were liable for $3.7 billion dollars in the antitrust trial, and $3.6 billion dollars in the upcoming January trial. This excludes any treble damages and compulsory licensing/injuctions of products.

It's a huge amount, and if Samsung is the last one to survive, so be it. They have a big enough cash war chest to be able to pay the entire thing.

Talk about iAnal.

Why should Samsung be held entirely responsible for what Hynix, Micron, and others did and vice versa?

Makes absolutely no sense.

Lothar,

Legal terms are often times difficult to understand. I gained some knowledge when I hired corporate attorneys when I had my start-up. There's also a retired lawyer friend of ours who attends the court cases involving Rambus. In any case, 10 years of reading legal briefs, motions and summaries almost on a daily basis helps you pick up quite a bit of terms and what they mean. I'll try to clear the confusion up for you:

In a civil case, a joint and several liability is a designation of liability by which members of a group (memory manufacturers) are either individually or mutually responsible to a party (Rambus) in which a favorable judgement has been awarded. The winning plaintiff in such a case may collect the entire judgment from any one of the parties, or from any and all of the parties in various amounts until the judgment is paid in full. In other words, if any of the defendants do not have enough money or assets to pay an equal share of the award, the other defendants must make up the difference.

Defendants in a civil suit can be held jointly and severally liable when their concurrent acts brought about the harm to the plaintiff. The acts of the defendants do not have to be simultaneous: they must simply contribute to the same event.

A really simple example is when an electrician negligently installs an electrical line. Years later, another electrician inspects the line and approves it. When the plaintiff is subsequently injured by a short circuit in the line, the plaintiff may sue both electricians and hold them jointly and severally liable. If one electrician goes bankrupt, passes away or for whatever reason cannot pay, the other electrician bears the burden of paying the entire award.

I hope that helps a bit. I wouldn't put this much money into something I don't understand.

Let me pose this question. The memory manufacturers have already pled GUILTY with the Department of Justice on collusion and price-fixing SDRAM, DDR and RDRAM chips. They all paid heavy fines to the DOJ, and their executives were sent to jail. How can Rambus lose this case on an antitrust basis? I can't see any possible reason. In fact, the memory manufacturers don't want to settle unless Rambus takes them off this particular case. They are scared come March. It's a virtual lockdown for Rambus.

 

[Azurik]

opps, see the post above

 

[Ricochet]

Three days of consecutive gains!!! My purchase of Boeing at 37.50 is doing quite nicely. I consider BA a fairly low risk, slow moving stock. This may be a long term hold for me.

 

[zimu]

does anyone know when the trial date / decision for rmbs is? think i'll probably end up selling my stock prior to that to offset the risk of them losing the trial, which is a possibility.

 

[Azurik]

December 2008 YTD:

DJIA = 8,585 / -35.3 %
Nasdaq = 1,53 / -42.3 %
S&P 500 = 879 / -40.1 %
Azurik's Retirement = -25.7%
Azurik's Non-Retirement = 5.5% (WOO-HOO!)


Please see my 2009 Stock Market thread for ongoing discussions. 2008 was qute the year for the stock market... and not in the good sense of the term.

2009 Stock Market Thread