***Official*** 2008 Stock Market Thread

[alphatarget1]

I'm thinking of buying more GE if it drops to sub-20 and average down a little, what do y'all think?

My cost average is about 27 dollars.

 

[abovewood]

I have some GE shares, cost average is about $29.
I am think of selling the Jan 2010 calls with strike price at $30 (about $2 premium) or $35(about $1 premium).

Do you guys think in GE will be at or above $30 in 15 months?


(edit, made a mistake and put down the wrong premium for the calls)

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: abovewood
I have some GE shares, cost average is about $29.
I am think of selling the Jan 2010 calls with strike price at $30 (about $1 premium) or $35(about $2 premium).

Do you guys think in GE will be at or above $30 in 15 months?

Hard to say given the current environment and how it will play out. 15 months is a long time. Going up $9 in that timeframe isn't unrealistic. At least your calls are covered.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Jeff7181

Originally posted by: Naustica
I glanced at the sector summary on Google finance and I'm seeing some cheap stocks based on annual net income and the stock market cap. There are quite a few stocks with market cap less than 10x their annual net income. I know the net incomes are coming down but marketcap is falling faster. Fertilizer and insurance stocks got killed today.

I want in on Posco and ConocoPhillips. But it's hard to know when the hedgefund forced selling will end.

Safe stocks like food processors and drugs will get hit eventually. Bear market and crash spares nothing. Bank stocks are ripe for downside damage. Too bad it's against the law to short these.

Does that include the Jack Lalanne Power Juicer?

:laugh: OK, you made me chuckle.

Hedgefunds post record losses for Sept.

I've stated I want to buy some material and energy stocks like Posco and ConocoPhillips. But materials and energy stocks are some of the most owned by hedgefunds as they expected them to rise and outperform. Hedgefund redemption and liquidations are killing these stocks and overshooting these names to the downside. If you can get in these names for super cheap as the forced selling ends, you can make some money as these names recover from the artificial selling. The trick is to know when it's safe. It's dog eats dog world and hedgefunds are shooting each other for fight for survival.

 

[abovewood]

SEC short-selling ban to end Thursday
Bearish bets to resume three trading days after Bush signs $700 bln bailout

My account is not setup to short.
I feel like my choices of tools are being limited.
But at the same time, I am not ready to jump on the short-selling wagon with 11 months of trading experience.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: abovewood
SEC short-selling ban to end Thursday
Bearish bets to resume three trading days after Bush signs $700 bln bailout

My account is not setup to short.
I feel like my choices of tools are being limited.
But at the same time, I am not ready to jump on the short-selling wagon with 11 months of trading experience.

SEC can always extend it. They can do whatever they want and make up any rule as they go along. That's partially the reason why people aren't putting in the money in the market. Would you play a casino game where the house kept changing the rule even after you placed the bet? Not many would.

As for the hedgefunds blaming the ban of short selling as the main reason for their big losses in Sept, that's pretty lame excuse. The ones that lost money just made too many wrong bets and leveraged too much. While leverage and concentrated bets allow you to outperform during a bull market, it will absolutely destroy you in a bear market. These funds all have similar playbooks and buy similar sector/stocks. I didn't see them crying when they were pushing these stocks up with their momo buying and made lot of money. Now these bets are blowing up big and clients are asking to withdrawal their money. Add to this many of the investment firms that lent them money to make big leverage bets are now gone and they're in trouble. Other hedgefunds smell blood and they're shorting stocks and positions owned by the troubled hedgefunds.

I wouldn't short here. Making money shorting is hard. Your gains are finite while your losses can be infinite. When the reversal comes, it's going to be fast and furious. Remember the most vicious rally occurs in the context of a bear market. Then again, most market crashes occur near the market bottom and not the top.

 

[abovewood]

Originally posted by: Naustica

I want in on Posco and ConocoPhillips. But it's hard to know when the hedgefund forced selling will end.

What about BP? It pays a fat dividend and has positive net income.

 

[her209]

This will be an interesting week.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: abovewood

Originally posted by: Naustica

I want in on Posco and ConocoPhillips. But it's hard to know when the hedgefund forced selling will end.

What about BP? It pays a fat dividend and has positive net income.

I only need one oil & gas. Oil and steel makers got killed on the foreign markets yesterday.

 

[ponyo]

We're getting the sell on the news of the bailout with the Dow reversing 450 points on Friday after the bailout bill was passed. The world markets got clobbered yesterday and we're looking to open down about 2% today. This is playing to my script so it's time for part B of the plan which is buying this plunge. I'm watching the VIX and I expect it to break through 40s today to 50s and if we totally melt, to hit near 70. If we get anything near that, I'm going all in for a trade. It's starting to get scary out there so it's time to close your eyes, hold your nose, and buy.

 

[ivan2]

market opened with mixed feeling this morning, one hand I have call on GG, another hand all of my holdings are down(mainly GE MRK VV) =(

 

[oznerol]

Well, 4-digit Dow is back.

 

[ivan2]

ohh, money down the drain...

 

[Ricochet]

:Q and this after a bailout. OMG.

 

[ponyo]

I've started my buying. Bought Posco and Conoco. Trying to buy Mastercard and Google. Be right back.

 

[ponyo]

Bought Mastercard, Google, and GE. MA and GOOG are my beta plays. Just spent boatload of money. I'm now finished for this buying and waiting for the possible second round of selling this afternoon where the VIX goes to near 70. It's in the mid 50s now. So people are definitely scared.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Naustica
Bought Mastercard, Google, and GE. MA and GOOG are my beta plays. Just spent boatload of money. I'm now finished for this buying and waiting for the possible second round of selling this afternoon where the VIX goes to near 70. It's in the mid 50s now. So people are definitely scared.

No... people are scared?

They're jumping for joy over here

 

[ponyo]

To tell you how bad the fear was out there, when I bought, every single of my buys went into negative as soon as I bought. Now, every single buy I made is now positive in the money. Trade not to lose but to win baby!

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Naustica
To tell you how bad the fear was out there, when I bought, every single of my buys went into negative as soon as I bought. Now, every single buy I made is now positive in the money. Trade not to lose but to win baby!

I just bought more RMBS :evil:

I'm either going to be extremely wealthy or be burnt badly. Tick tock, tick tock.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Naustica
To tell you how bad the fear was out there, when I bought, every single of my buys went into negative as soon as I bought. Now, every single buy I made is now positive in the money. Trade not to lose but to win baby!

I just bought more RMBS :evil:

I'm either going to be extremely wealthy or be burnt badly. Tick tock, tick tock.

Arggg. I missed this second push down. I was on the way to buy lunch when I called in. I tried to find reliable internet connection but couldn't. Now prices have recovered and I've about 5 minutes left on my battery laptop. Damn, that swoosh was fast. I could've have cleaned up.

 

[jmolayal]

Originally posted by: GML3G0
Took a stake in DOW, GE, and VZ. All are yielding over 5.5% in dividends alone. TEX is just getting absolutely wrecked... as is ABB. I've been holding them since 47 and 26 respectively.

This type of play is interesting to me. GE Especially. At prices around 20 - 21 and a dividend of .31 .. Shouldnt' people be all over this?

Do we really think GE is going to go under in the short term? As a long term play, this seems pretty sound to me. Anyone else have any thoughts?

- Jaison

 

[Ricochet]

Originally posted by: jmolayal

Originally posted by: GML3G0
Took a stake in DOW, GE, and VZ. All are yielding over 5.5% in dividends alone. TEX is just getting absolutely wrecked... as is ABB. I've been holding them since 47 and 26 respectively.

This type of play is interesting to me. GE Especially. At prices around 20 - 21 and a dividend of .31 .. Shouldnt' people be all over this?

Do we really think GE is going to go under in the short term? As a long term play, this seems pretty sound to me. Anyone else have any thoughts?

- Jaison

GE and BA are under my watch currently. I still think the stock market has quite a bit more to go before we see a bottom and these two stocks seem to follow the trend of the overall market. If I'm wrong I will have to catch them on the way up. Long term I think these are both great picks.

 

[Ns1]

Anybody have a comment on INTC and NVDA?

I've been eyeballing INTC for months now...

 

[Noirish]

missed out on bidu today when it was under $210...really tight on available cash, sigh...

 

[ViperVin2]

Originally posted by: Ns1
Anybody have a comment on INTC and NVDA?

I've been eyeballing INTC for months now...

I just transferred more money into my brokerage account to buy both of these stocks.