***Official*** 2009 Stock Market Thread

[Azurik]

Please see my 2007 Stock Market Thread for information and references: 2007 Stock Market Thread

Please see my 2008 Stock Market Thread for information and references: 2008 Stock Market Thread


Year 2007:

DJIA = 13,365 / 6.4%
Nasdaq = 2,674 / 9.8%
S&P 500 = 1,478 / 3.5%
Azurik's Retirement = 10.7%
Azurik's Non-Retirement = 23.1%


Year 2008:

DJIA = 8,585 / -35.3 %
Nasdaq = 1,53 / -42.3 %
S&P 500 = 879 / -40.1 %
Azurik's Retirement = -25.7%
Azurik's Non-Retirement = 5.5%


Year 2009:

DJIA = 8,212 / -1.4 %
Nasdaq = 1,719 / 9.0 %
S&P 500 = 878 / 1.8 %
Azurik's Retirement = 6.3%
Azurik's Non-Retirement = 10.5%


My Best Call: When oil was trading at $142 per barrel (oil peaked at $147), I posted that I was short oil and believed it to be well overpriced. I thought oil is fairly valued at $80 a barrel. This was amid numerous reports that oil would soon hit $200 a barrel and a few posters believing I was crazy. As the year unfolded, the events that took hold drove barrel down just as fast if not faster when it went up. Oil ended the year under $40 a barrel. Just as I went short oil due to investor over reaction, I believe the markets over reacted on the giant pullback and went long oil in December.

My Worst Call: Investing $15,000 in CPNE. I had an initial gain, but it went shortly downhill from there, marking it as the worst investment I had LIFE-to-date. I had roughly a 70% loss when I sold. There were some surprise twists and turns in CPNE that I didn't foresee, and it cost me dearly. Luckily, I sold out in this turmoil and saved several thousand dollars I would have lost had I waited a few more weeks. Penny stocks are easy when you can see where the manipulation is happening, but it is very hard to predict what the players in that stock will do at any given time.

My Best Investment (and why I beat the major indices again): It was still a bad year, but I still trumped all 3 major indices again by a good margin. In fact, my non-retirement accounts posted a slight gain amid one of the worst stock market years. The majority of that can be attributed to a stock that I have held on to, and have studied almost nightly on for the past decade. RMBS. As it fell with the market, I picked up more and more shares of the stock, bringing my cost average way down and acculumating more shares than I ever thought I would own. The lowest levels I bought was $5.19 ($4.95 was the intraday low), bringing my overall cost average down to $8.59 a share. In one month (from November to December), the stock has more than tripled.

I now hold 8,500 shares in RMBS, which is about $150,000 at its current price. It is by far, my biggest investment in one stock. Those who kept up with the 2008 discussion knows what my opinion of this stock is and what I think it will do once the consolidated trial starts later this month and the antitrust trial that starts in April.

It has come to my attention that there have been several investors who bought into RMBS after reading the discussions I had with other posters. While all of you are sitting on a gain right now, I also urge you to do your own due diligence and have a selling plan. My investment risks may be different than yours, and we may have different levels of how comfortable we are with volitile swings... and with RMBS you will get plenty. Having said that, after a decade of following this stock, I firmly believe the company is in its best legal position it has ever been in and intend to ride out the trials. Like I said last year, RMBS is by far the company I know the most about compared to any other individual stock I own, and it is my stock for 2009 just like it was in 2008.

I wish everyone good luck in 2009. May you invest wisely and patiently (unless you're a day-trader), and be amply rewarded.

Regards,
Azurik

 

[Azurik]

2008 was a historic year for the stock market, and not in the good sense of the term. The subprime mess that started to surface in 2007 erupted with full force in 2008. We saw iconic investment banks fail, Fannae Mae and Freddie Mac being put under government control, AIG being bailed out, vast regional banks going under and the easy days of credit a thing of the past.

In 2009, the major indices post losses of 35% to 45%. It was the biggest stock market lost since the 1930's - well before virtually of of us were born.

Much has been already speculated how 2009 will play out, and how Obama will handle this crisis as he takes the presidency in a month.

 

[HopJokey]

Here's to a better year!

 

[Slew Foot]

Here's to hopping on the BUS this year

 

[Parasitic]

I've decided to play it safe all this year and buy only ETF's...dumb idea? I'm looking into QQQQ and EWJ for stable investments right now.

I'm -32% since Dec of '07 so may have to play it safe. I'm hoping MRK goes back up to $60 and FNM/FRE to $5 by the end of '09.

Edit: -32%

 

[zimu]

does anybody know when the rmbs trial dates are? i'm seeing 19th jan, is that still the case? will probs sell of my rmbs by then.
think everything will go up until inauguration day but then drop after, so will pick up some new stuff after the 20th

 

[DukeFan21]

Does anyone know when my Wachovia shares will be converted into shares of Wells Fargo? I thought it would have happened yesterday after close but I still see the WB# ticker in my Scottrade account.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: zimu
does anybody know when the rmbs trial dates are? i'm seeing 19th jan, is that still the case? will probs sell of my rmbs by then.
think everything will go up until inauguration day but then drop after, so will pick up some new stuff after the 20th

January 19th is the consolidated trial for DDR2 against the memory manufacturer's (Hynix, Micron, Samsung and Nanya).

What price did you get it at?

Keep in mind, RMBS has ALWAYS gone up as the trials were progressing. If you are really unsure, then sell before the jury verdict - think you'd be losing gains otherwise. You could always attend the trial in the Northen District of California if you are around the area. I have several people I know attending, so it's easier to see where the direction of the case is heading.

Also, the judge (Judge Ronald Whyte) has already awarded Rambus a summary judgement of infringement on 1 patent claim. They have essentially won, unless the memory manufacturers can invalidate the patent with prior art (I highly doubt it).

This judge was also the same judge who presided over the previous cases with RMBS... in which he has ruled in favor of RMBS and a jury in his court has voted 37-0 in favor of RMBS. He knows the history of these cases.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Parasitic
I've decided to play it safe all this year and buy only ETF's...dumb idea? I'm looking into QQQQ and EWJ for stable investments right now.

I'm -32% since Dec of '07 so may have to play it safe. I'm hoping MRK goes back up to $60 and FNM/FRE to $5 by the end of '09.

Edit: -32%

MRK? Good luck with that.

 

[nervegrind3r]

I lost a nice chunk of change this year because I got in right at the back end of the market's uprise over the past few years. Hoping to pick up some stocks dirt cheap and keep them for the long haul now, and buy others for a quick buck.

I have never in my life seen changes in stock value on any given day like I have over the past few months, its pretty sick just to watch. I was way too pussy to start day trading because everything was volatile.

 

[anonmouseuser]

I've been eyeing going long on the following stocks. Any thoughts?

EBAY -- Quick look at the multiples suggest that they are undervalued.
SBUX -- They have started to focus more on the core business and selling off non performing stores.
NFLIX -- I really like their watch instant feature and Silverlight is a step in the right direction. Generally, I have been a customer for a long time and I think that the CEO knows what he is doing.

 

[ViperVin2]

I will be writing most of 2008 off in taxes. Two of my main focuses for this 2009 year will be UYG and URE.

 

[V00DOO]

I'll keep an eye on this thread in 2009. As bad as the market did in 2008 I was in the positive with my personal investment unlike my 401K which took a dump. Good luck to every in 2009.

 

[amdskip]

I dumped my NYX will be writing off some of my losses in my taxes. Right now the money is just sitting in my account, no hurry to reinvest.

 

[zimu]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: zimu
does anybody know when the rmbs trial dates are? i'm seeing 19th jan, is that still the case? will probs sell of my rmbs by then.
think everything will go up until inauguration day but then drop after, so will pick up some new stuff after the 20th

January 19th is the consolidated trial for DDR2 against the memory manufacturer's (Hynix, Micron, Samsung and Nanya).

What price did you get it at?

Keep in mind, RMBS has ALWAYS gone up as the trials were progressing. If you are really unsure, then sell before the jury verdict - think you'd be losing gains otherwise. You could always attend the trial in the Northen District of California if you are around the area. I have several people I know attending, so it's easier to see where the direction of the case is heading.

Also, the judge (Judge Ronald Whyte) has already awarded Rambus a summary judgement of infringement on 1 patent claim. They have essentially won, unless the memory manufacturers can invalidate the patent with prior art (I highly doubt it).

This judge was also the same judge who presided over the previous cases with RMBS... in which he has ruled in favor of RMBS and a jury in his court has voted 37-0 in favor of RMBS. He knows the history of these cases.

i bought rmbs in the 14s, so fairly recently. doing this more for fun at this point, don't have much invested.

what i'll probably end up doing is set a stop sell around trial date so in the case it does suddenly drop crazily i can dump the stock off at the market rate before i lose my original investment.

i trust your judgment though - i've looked at their history and you're right that these guys are quite high flyers. so stops the way to go rather than dump it off prior to the case and then regret it if it goes up insanely post-case!

 

[zimu]

Originally posted by: ViperVin2
I will be writing most of 2008 off in taxes. Two of my main focuses for this 2009 year will be UYG and URE.

UYG goes look quite promising... don't know about URE.

to add to the list i'm quite intrigued with AIG (think it'll cross 2 fairly soon) and ING (good for long term).

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: anonmouseuser
I've been eyeing going long on the following stocks. Any thoughts?

EBAY -- Quick look at the multiples suggest that they are undervalued.
SBUX -- They have started to focus more on the core business and selling off non performing stores.
NFLIX -- I really like their watch instant feature and Silverlight is a step in the right direction. Generally, I have been a customer for a long time and I think that the CEO knows what he is doing.

EBAY- They have no moat.
SBUX- Again, I'll still take MCD over them even at these prices. They have no moat.
NFLX- Better than BBI obviously, but still doesn't mean it's good enough to own. They have no moat.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: zimu

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: zimu
does anybody know when the rmbs trial dates are? i'm seeing 19th jan, is that still the case? will probs sell of my rmbs by then.
think everything will go up until inauguration day but then drop after, so will pick up some new stuff after the 20th

January 19th is the consolidated trial for DDR2 against the memory manufacturer's (Hynix, Micron, Samsung and Nanya).

What price did you get it at?

Keep in mind, RMBS has ALWAYS gone up as the trials were progressing. If you are really unsure, then sell before the jury verdict - think you'd be losing gains otherwise. You could always attend the trial in the Northen District of California if you are around the area. I have several people I know attending, so it's easier to see where the direction of the case is heading.

Also, the judge (Judge Ronald Whyte) has already awarded Rambus a summary judgement of infringement on 1 patent claim. They have essentially won, unless the memory manufacturers can invalidate the patent with prior art (I highly doubt it).

This judge was also the same judge who presided over the previous cases with RMBS... in which he has ruled in favor of RMBS and a jury in his court has voted 37-0 in favor of RMBS. He knows the history of these cases.

i bought rmbs in the 14s, so fairly recently. doing this more for fun at this point, don't have much invested.

what i'll probably end up doing is set a stop sell around trial date so in the case it does suddenly drop crazily i can dump the stock off at the market rate before i lose my original investment.

i trust your judgment though - i've looked at their history and you're right that these guys are quite high flyers. so stops the way to go rather than dump it off prior to the case and then regret it if it goes up insanely post-case!

Stops are tricky with RMBS. I remember one decision that made RMBS free fall for like $7-$8 before regaining it back within 10 minutes due to misinterpretation... but goodluck with your goals, hope it works out.

And... if you sell now, you'd sell at a gain of around 20% depending where in the $14's you managed to buy RMBS at. That way you can call me a genius instead of coming back to me later this year and writing something like, "#!@(!!! Azurik!"

 

[vi edit]

So what'st he general consensus on going long on oil right now? DXO was mentioned the other day and had a nice 22% gain late last week. I'm sure as we get into summer we'll see some increases as demand goes up and we see the normal price creep up through Labor Day. But how much price recovery does everyone expect from oil?

 

[zimu]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: zimu

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: zimu
does anybody know when the rmbs trial dates are? i'm seeing 19th jan, is that still the case? will probs sell of my rmbs by then.
think everything will go up until inauguration day but then drop after, so will pick up some new stuff after the 20th

January 19th is the consolidated trial for DDR2 against the memory manufacturer's (Hynix, Micron, Samsung and Nanya).

What price did you get it at?

Keep in mind, RMBS has ALWAYS gone up as the trials were progressing. If you are really unsure, then sell before the jury verdict - think you'd be losing gains otherwise. You could always attend the trial in the Northen District of California if you are around the area. I have several people I know attending, so it's easier to see where the direction of the case is heading.

Also, the judge (Judge Ronald Whyte) has already awarded Rambus a summary judgement of infringement on 1 patent claim. They have essentially won, unless the memory manufacturers can invalidate the patent with prior art (I highly doubt it).

This judge was also the same judge who presided over the previous cases with RMBS... in which he has ruled in favor of RMBS and a jury in his court has voted 37-0 in favor of RMBS. He knows the history of these cases.

i bought rmbs in the 14s, so fairly recently. doing this more for fun at this point, don't have much invested.

what i'll probably end up doing is set a stop sell around trial date so in the case it does suddenly drop crazily i can dump the stock off at the market rate before i lose my original investment.

i trust your judgment though - i've looked at their history and you're right that these guys are quite high flyers. so stops the way to go rather than dump it off prior to the case and then regret it if it goes up insanely post-case!

Stops are tricky with RMBS. I remember one decision that made RMBS free fall for like $7-$8 before regaining it back within 10 minutes due to misinterpretation... but goodluck with your goals, hope it works out.

And... if you sell now, you'd sell at a gain of around 20% depending where in the $14's you managed to buy RMBS at. That way you can call me a genius instead of coming back to me later this year and writing something like, "#!@(!!! Azurik!"

that is the tricky thing about stops... i'm thinking maybe set a stop limit and err on the side of caution - if its a false positive (i.e. it thinks the sky is falling, but its just a temporary blip) i still make money, just not as much. but if its a correct diagnosis (shit hit the fan) then i still hopefully sell of those shares before my limit is reached...

 

[cKGunslinger]

Well, one of my resolution for the year was to get involved in some sort of *potential* money-making/investment hobby, just to test the waters.

Not to high-jack this thread, but do we have any consensus on a good stock-trading site for a non day-trader. I have an ING account, but Sharebuilder seems to not be exactly what I'm looking for, based on reviews.

 

[zimu]

i've been using zecco which i'm pretty happy about. cheap as chips trades (if not free) and tons of info on their site. and, well, it trades your stocks

 

[zimu]

question: what tickers do you guys use? know of any free desktop tickers that are non obtrusive?

 

[ponyo]

Sold and took my small profit in DXO and little larger profit in DBA. Commodities had a nice little rally here the past two weeks and oil up around 50% since the Dec 19 low. I think oil is headed to $60 but very few things move in straight line. $35-60 seems to the trading range lot of people are thinking. Still holding on to COP as my oil/gas exposure.

My gut feeling for this year? We have couple nice bear market rallies as people try to buy in front of recovery. Maybe a nice rally to April in anticipation and then reality sets in and we fall hard breaking last year's low. Lower to the year end. Just my guess.

 

[Azurik]

FYI, during the case management conference today, Judge Whyte denied the manufacturer's plea of no-contest for infringement along with denying their request to have Micron be the sole defendant and for the others to abide by the ruling.

The case is going as originally planned... I'll give the manufacturer's props for trying to be sneaky though.

By pleading "no contest" to infringement, they can bring up the issue at a later date, causing delays. By having Micron as the lone defendant, they wanted to keep damaging documents RMBS has against Samsung and Hynix from surfacing.

Now Rambus can show what they have against all the manufacturer's... and also point out that Samsung WAS a liscenser of RMBS at one point. How will Samsung argue that they don't infringe when they had taken a prior license for the very same patents??? That past license deal shows that Samsung felt that Rambus's IP was legit.

Rambus has gone from $5 to $18 is less than 30 trading days!:thumbsup:

I am not close to selling... but urge others who bought into the stock to evaluate what they are going to do. I won't be here daily to give you court reports, but do your own DD and take the appropriate action.

Good luck, everyone!