***Official*** 2009 Stock Market Thread

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: GTKeeper
RMBS is above 9.50 now.... hopefully it goes to 20 in the next month or so. I feel like it has to happen within the current rally or come may/june the downward pressure on all stocks will be immense.

Well, it's $9.49

I looked at the technicals again and would really like it to blow past $9.91, and then $10.00 with good volume.

Like I said before, there really isn't any resistance past these levels. There should be plenty of news tidbits coming up, and in April we have the first phase of the Antitrust trial where Judge Kramer will decide if he will press onwards or cancel the trial due to the RMBS vs Micron ruling Judge Robinson made.

I'm 95% sure he will press onward. All the pre-trial rulings last week went for Rambus, and I expect the same when they reconvene this upcoming Monday. He also scheduled the last phase of the trial of September and made remarks as if he's only doing the April phase I trial to cover his bases and allow time for a 6 month appeal from the manufacturers. We will see.

 

[GTKeeper]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: GTKeeper
RMBS is above 9.50 now.... hopefully it goes to 20 in the next month or so. I feel like it has to happen within the current rally or come may/june the downward pressure on all stocks will be immense.

Well, it's $9.49

I looked at the technicals again and would really like it to blow past $9.91, and then $10.00 with good volume.

Like I said before, there really isn't any resistance past these levels. There should be plenty of news tidbits coming up, and in April we have the first phase of the Antitrust trial where Judge Kramer will decide if he will press onwards or cancel the trial due to the RMBS vs Micron ruling Judge Robinson made.

I'm 95% sure he will press onward. All the pre-trial rulings last week went for Rambus, and I expect the same when they reconvene this upcoming Monday. He also scheduled the last phase of the trial of September and made remarks as if he's only doing the April phase I trial to cover his bases and allow time for a 6 month appeal from the manufacturers. We will see.

I also think the imminent bounce right now is us waiting for RMBS to re-state earnings after Hynix re-sated theirs. I think once they agree on a dollar number, we go higher. I'm expecting THAT announcement any day now and at the latest during the April earnings release.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: GTKeeper
RMBS is above 9.50 now.... hopefully it goes to 20 in the next month or so. I feel like it has to happen within the current rally or come may/june the downward pressure on all stocks will be immense.

Well, it's $9.49

I looked at the technicals again and would really like it to blow past $9.91, and then $10.00 with good volume.

Like I said before, there really isn't any resistance past these levels. There should be plenty of news tidbits coming up, and in April we have the first phase of the Antitrust trial where Judge Kramer will decide if he will press onwards or cancel the trial due to the RMBS vs Micron ruling Judge Robinson made.

I'm 95% sure he will press onward. All the pre-trial rulings last week went for Rambus, and I expect the same when they reconvene this upcoming Monday. He also scheduled the last phase of the trial of September and made remarks as if he's only doing the April phase I trial to cover his bases and allow time for a 6 month appeal from the manufacturers. We will see.

I also think the imminent bounce right now is us waiting for RMBS to re-state earnings after Hynix re-sated theirs. I think once they agree on a dollar number, we go higher. I'm expecting THAT announcement any day now and at the latest during the April earnings release.

I don't think Rambus will restate their earnings until the 14 day waiting period goes by... Hynix has 14 days since the final judgement to appeal any or all of the verdict.

I honestly don't know if Rambus and Hynix will settle before then, or go all out on appeals. If Hynix appeals, it opens the door for Rambus to re-request injunction and higher royalty fees and damages.

Who knows what's going to happen this/next month.

 

[zimu]

aig peaked at +98% in the past hour... why's it going up with all the recent bad press and them just announcing how they're giving out their bailout money to other banks?

is this a good pick, do you think it'll fly up today?

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Azurik
Good day, not the typical rally that faded as the day went on. In fact, it kept climbing through the close. To S&P 750 we go! Then one big leg lower before a 3-4 month sustained rally.

That's my guess anyway

Well, my S&P target hit... there's resistance around 770-780. More likely than not, we retrace back to at least low 700's before a sustained rally can begin, but I'm hoping I'm wrong on the 2nd part of my prediction. S&P blowing through these levels tell an entirely different story, but we will see. Everything is lacking volume and conviction right now.

Rambus needs to blow through this mid-$9's it's been diddly-daddling in. A good market or more positive news, I'll take either.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Azurik
Good day, not the typical rally that faded as the day went on. In fact, it kept climbing through the close. To S&P 750 we go! Then one big leg lower before a 3-4 month sustained rally.

That's my guess anyway

Well, my S&P target hit... there's resistance around 770-780. More likely than not, we retrace back to at least low 700's before a sustained rally can begin, but I'm hoping I'm wrong on the 2nd part of my prediction. S&P blowing through these levels tell an entirely different story, but we will see. Everything is lacking volume and conviction right now.

Rambus needs to blow through this mid-$9's it's been diddly-daddling in. A good market or more positive news, I'll take either.

I'll probably look to short select names if and when we hit 800. Some traders are calling for 840 as target for rally to fade. 600 is still my buy target.

 

[her209]

Originally posted by: abovewood

Originally posted by: JS80
Bunch of liars on wall st today. I'm going to load up on FAZ if it hits 25.

Of course you will. I will load up too at 25.

FAZ 52wk Range: 32.57 - 201.86

Its down big today.

Why $25?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: her209
I can't believe I'm sitting on the sidelines with 50% cash in my personal portfolio and have missed the last 2 big rallies on Wall Street.

I'll tell you a secret, don't tell no one:

Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.

BUY AND HOLD some undervalued gems:
JNJ
BNI
BRK (risk of dilution of banks within its portfolio is a small risk, but a risk)

Prices I think the above will hit when market reaches solid bottom in late 2010:

JNJ $35
BNI $30
BRK.A $50,000

HAHAHAHAHAAH. That;'s a joke right? You really need to learn about discounting free cash flows and what that means. While n one can predict 6 months out, yone can predict 5-10 yeas out.

Anyways, today ......

JNJ is currently worth $90+. (Even PFE can be argued to be worth $25 w/ Lipitor patent experation)

BNIs intrinsic value is $80+ ($100+ if you consider some short term tax advantages)

BRK.A ..... well ...... given the risk of dilution to banks I will not comment. It's definitely worth more than book value though and that sits at around $70K/share for an A share. Your estimate of $50K for BRK.A is laughable at best. Definitely shows that you know nothing of valuation and probably notice a down trend. Or worse yet, you think Jim Cramer is smart.

....... the markets are just misprcing things. Liek WEB says. The market is deisgned to benefit the value uivnestor. All it takes is that one be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. Most people don't understand the history of hte markets well enough to know how to take advantage at times like this.

This market is creating some wonderful opportunities! And most of the good companies carry little to no risk. For example, WFC will see record earnings within 5 years. The only issue is potential shareholder dilution.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: zimu
aig peaked at +98% in the past hour... why's it going up with all the recent bad press and them just announcing how they're giving out their bailout money to other banks?

is this a good pick, do you think it'll fly up today?

AIG is not worth investing in. PERIOD.

 

[ponyo]

IHateMyJob2004 you can hide behind your I'm a longterm investor and it's not a loss until you sell BS all you want. It's no wonder you rode those banks all the way down since you believe like them that the mark-to-market accounting isn't reflective of the current value and you're right and the rest of the market is wrong. You're still in denial just like the banks you own. If you think the above price targets are complete fantasy, you're really clueless. You have to always respect the downside. Didn't your famed Margin of Safety hero teach you anything? I haven't seen not one post of yours saying you're loading the boat at these depressed level. You should be backing up the truck and going crazy. Let me guess. You spent your entire load at MUCH higher levels. Now you're broke and crazy. You may preach "longterm" but I bet you'll sell at the first breakeven chance you get.

There are variety of styles and ways to make money. I respect people that can make money regardless of style. Maybe once you crawl out of Buffett's ass you will see the light. I say that with complete respect to Buffett as he's the best.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Naustica
IHateMyJob2004 you can hide behind your I'm a longterm investor and it's not a loss until you sell BS all you want. It's no wonder you rode those banks all the way down since you believe like them that the mark-to-market accounting isn't reflective of the current value and you're right and the rest of the market is wrong. You're still in denial just like the banks you own. If you think the above price targets are complete fantasy, you're really clueless. You have to always respect the downside. Didn't your famed Margin of Safety hero teach you anything? I haven't seen not one post of yours saying you're loading the boat at these depressed level. You should be backing up the truck and going crazy. Let me guess. You spent your entire load at MUCH higher levels. Now you're broke and crazy. You may preach "longterm" but I bet you'll sell at the first breakeven chance you get.

There are variety of styles and ways to make money. I respect people that can make money regardless of style. Maybe once you crawl out of Buffett's ass you will see the light. I say that with complete respect to Buffett as he's the best.

What have been your returns, over the past 20 years, Naustica? Ohhh wait, you're a failed trader.

I bet you're still fawning over those retarded charts which haven't been proven by one empirical, peer reviewed, study that has examined risk-adjusted long-term results.

I am going to bookmark this and rub your face in your own stupidity in a year. At that time I expect to see a picture of you wiping Buffett's ass because that's all you'll ever measure up to.

 

[hiromizu]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Naustica
IHateMyJob2004 you can hide behind your I'm a longterm investor and it's not a loss until you sell BS all you want. It's no wonder you rode those banks all the way down since you believe like them that the mark-to-market accounting isn't reflective of the current value and you're right and the rest of the market is wrong. You're still in denial just like the banks you own. If you think the above price targets are complete fantasy, you're really clueless. You have to always respect the downside. Didn't your famed Margin of Safety hero teach you anything? I haven't seen not one post of yours saying you're loading the boat at these depressed level. You should be backing up the truck and going crazy. Let me guess. You spent your entire load at MUCH higher levels. Now you're broke and crazy. You may preach "longterm" but I bet you'll sell at the first breakeven chance you get.

There are variety of styles and ways to make money. I respect people that can make money regardless of style. Maybe once you crawl out of Buffett's ass you will see the light. I say that with complete respect to Buffett as he's the best.

What have been your returns, over the past 20 years, Naustica? Ohhh wait, you're a failed trader.

I bet you're still fawning over those retarded charts which haven't been proven by one empirical, peer reviewed, study that has examined risk-adjusted long-term results.

I am going to bookmark this and rub your face in your own stupidity in a year. At that time I expect to see a picture of you wiping Buffett's ass because that's all you'll ever measure up to.

marked for future reference.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Naustica
IHateMyJob2004 you can hide behind your I'm a longterm investor and it's not a loss until you sell BS all you want. It's no wonder you rode those banks all the way down since you believe like them that the mark-to-market accounting isn't reflective of the current value and you're right and the rest of the market is wrong. You're still in denial just like the banks you own. If you think the above price targets are complete fantasy, you're really clueless. You have to always respect the downside. Didn't your famed Margin of Safety hero teach you anything? I haven't seen not one post of yours saying you're loading the boat at these depressed level. You should be backing up the truck and going crazy. Let me guess. You spent your entire load at MUCH higher levels. Now you're broke and crazy. You may preach "longterm" but I bet you'll sell at the first breakeven chance you get.

There are variety of styles and ways to make money. I respect people that can make money regardless of style. Maybe once you crawl out of Buffett's ass you will see the light. I say that with complete respect to Buffett as he's the best.

What have been your returns, over the past 20 years, Naustica? Ohhh wait, you're a failed trader.

I bet you're still fawning over those retarded charts which haven't been proven by one empirical, peer reviewed, study that has examined risk-adjusted long-term results.

I am going to bookmark this and rub your face in your own stupidity in a year. At that time I expect to see a picture of you wiping Buffett's ass because that's all you'll ever measure up to.

Judging by your near bottom tier performance so far in the ATOT Stock Market Game, I would guess my returns > yours. I know it's only been 2 short months but we can revisit that topic this time next year.

You're going to rub my face in what?

 

[Adam1980]

Why Do People Invest In Stocks?

People invest in stock market for various reasons, however the two most common reasons are:

1. Making investments aimed at realizing his long-term financial goals.
2. Some investors will just make an investment because they see some of their friends investing in the market

Therefore, in order to attain this, the key is to undertake a logical and a planned approach to investments.

 

[LegendKiller]

Didn't I say long-term performance? 2-3 months isn't long-term, nor is a year. I guess to a failed day trader it is, but to any professional investor, it is not. Not to mention, play money is play money, I take positions with play money I wouldn't take with my own earned money.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: GTKeeper
RMBS is above 9.50 now.... hopefully it goes to 20 in the next month or so. I feel like it has to happen within the current rally or come may/june the downward pressure on all stocks will be immense.

Well, it's $9.49

I looked at the technicals again and would really like it to blow past $9.91, and then $10.00 with good volume.

Like I said before, there really isn't any resistance past these levels. There should be plenty of news tidbits coming up, and in April we have the first phase of the Antitrust trial where Judge Kramer will decide if he will press onwards or cancel the trial due to the RMBS vs Micron ruling Judge Robinson made.

I'm 95% sure he will press onward. All the pre-trial rulings last week went for Rambus, and I expect the same when they reconvene this upcoming Monday. He also scheduled the last phase of the trial of September and made remarks as if he's only doing the April phase I trial to cover his bases and allow time for a 6 month appeal from the manufacturers. We will see.

Rambus suddenly spikes over $10 on a down market day. We now have a completed breakout for the P&F and a completed H&S signal.

This is a quadruple box breakout:

Breakout Chart

I would like to see a close above the breakout though, because it is possible for a "false breakout"... but I have so many bullish signals, my initial thought is this is real for now, wait a little for volume to confirm or quick price move up.

If we can achieve this, there's no real resistance and it should quickly go back up to $17-$18.

I had 8,500 shares before the crash, and with all the buys I did, I now have 14,000 shares - almost doubling my holdings with a total cost average of $8.35. Loving fear and opportunities it presented me, but please, no more buying opportunities. I think I have enough of those now.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: Naustica
IHateMyJob2004 you can hide behind your I'm a longterm investor and it's not a loss until you sell BS all you want. It's no wonder you rode those banks all the way down since you believe like them that the mark-to-market accounting isn't reflective of the current value and you're right and the rest of the market is wrong. You're still in denial just like the banks you own. If you think the above price targets are complete fantasy, you're really clueless. You have to always respect the downside. Didn't your famed Margin of Safety hero teach you anything? I haven't seen not one post of yours saying you're loading the boat at these depressed level. You should be backing up the truck and going crazy. Let me guess. You spent your entire load at MUCH higher levels. Now you're broke and crazy. You may preach "longterm" but I bet you'll sell at the first breakeven chance you get.

There are variety of styles and ways to make money. I respect people that can make money regardless of style. Maybe once you crawl out of Buffett's ass you will see the light. I say that with complete respect to Buffett as he's the best.

Clueless. You have no idea how to value a company from what I've seen. You know the lingo that any Mad Money watcher would know and that is about it.

I'm not loading the boat. I have no cash right now to do so. If I had cash, it would probably go 50% into BNI today. I love paying 50 cents for a dollar.

Thanks for making all your assumptions about my habits. In the long term, I'll outperform you. Don't worry. The traders hall of fame consists of an empty room.

I could make random comments here about things I am buying and lie if you'd like.

Want to quadruple your money in 10 years, buy BNI. Want to trade and underperform the broader indices, continue your trading ways. I will outperform the indices over the long term and not be taxed to death on the short term gains (if any) that you are making.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Naustica
IHateMyJob2004 you can hide behind your I'm a longterm investor and it's not a loss until you sell BS all you want. It's no wonder you rode those banks all the way down since you believe like them that the mark-to-market accounting isn't reflective of the current value and you're right and the rest of the market is wrong. You're still in denial just like the banks you own. If you think the above price targets are complete fantasy, you're really clueless. You have to always respect the downside. Didn't your famed Margin of Safety hero teach you anything? I haven't seen not one post of yours saying you're loading the boat at these depressed level. You should be backing up the truck and going crazy. Let me guess. You spent your entire load at MUCH higher levels. Now you're broke and crazy. You may preach "longterm" but I bet you'll sell at the first breakeven chance you get.

There are variety of styles and ways to make money. I respect people that can make money regardless of style. Maybe once you crawl out of Buffett's ass you will see the light. I say that with complete respect to Buffett as he's the best.

What have been your returns, over the past 20 years, Naustica? Ohhh wait, you're a failed trader.

I bet you're still fawning over those retarded charts which haven't been proven by one empirical, peer reviewed, study that has examined risk-adjusted long-term results.

I am going to bookmark this and rub your face in your own stupidity in a year. At that time I expect to see a picture of you wiping Buffett's ass because that's all you'll ever measure up to.

Judging by your near bottom tier performance so far in the ATOT Stock Market Game, I would guess my returns > yours. I know it's only been 2 short months but we can revisit that topic this time next year.

You're going to rub my face in what?

hahahahaa, you are trying to prove somethign through a game?

I hate to tell you this but those short term games are stupid. The way most real investors invest (long term) and the way they would play a game (12 months) are totally different. I'd load up on penny stocks. I wouldn't even care about them. I'd buy 2 random ones and hope that one gets a 1000% return in a year. I would never use my own money this way.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Naustica,

If the local McDonalds were up to sale, would you look at the past 10 sales of McDonalds and make some sort of chart and determine that a handle formed or some other BS TA measure occurred? Or would you look at the fact that the one you are considering the purchase of has $10K in free cash flow each month and base your offer to buy on that?

Answer wisely, because a stupid answer will result in my offer to sell you a bridge. Hell, you must be trying to buy property in California for 10 cents already!

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
Naustica,

If the local McDonalds were up to sale, would you look at the past 10 sales of McDonalds and make some sort of chart and determine that a handle formed or some other BS TA measure occurred? Or would you look at the fact that the one you are considering the purchase of has $10K in free cash flow each month and base your offer to buy on that?

Answer wisely, because a stupid answer will result in my offer to sell you a bridge. Hell, you must be trying to buy property in California for 10 cents already!

What was the support level?

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
What have been your returns, over the past 20 years, Naustica? Ohhh wait, you're a failed trader.

I bet you're still fawning over those retarded charts which haven't been proven by one empirical, peer reviewed, study that has examined risk-adjusted long-term results.

I am going to bookmark this and rub your face in your own stupidity in a year. At that time I expect to see a picture of you wiping Buffett's ass because that's all you'll ever measure up to.

Judging by your near bottom tier performance so far in the ATOT Stock Market Game, I would guess my returns > yours. I know it's only been 2 short months but we can revisit that topic this time next year.

You're going to rub my face in what?

hahahahaa, you are trying to prove somethign through a game?

I hate to tell you this but those short term games are stupid. The way most real investors invest (long term) and the way they would play a game (12 months) are totally different. I'd load up on penny stocks. I wouldn't even care about them. I'd buy 2 random ones and hope that one gets a 1000% return in a year. I would never use my own money this way.

Heh.
That was with the previous games on the VSE website.
Not so with this year's game on Marketocracy.

The one on Marketocracy doesn't(shouldn't) have an end date, but then again I'm not the one running it so I don't know how long Bonkers wants it to go on for.
Impossible to load up on penny stocks since you're paying a transaction fee of 5 cents per share.
I only paid 5 cents commission for a BRK.A share whereas someone buying $100k worth of a stock trading at 20 cents would pay a $25k commission. :thumbsup:

I don't know how everyone else has been playing that game, but the stocks I bought there are what I would buy(or already own) in real life(JNJ, UNP, etc...).

I was hoping the competition would be based on what people would buy in real life, not "play money".
Of course I'm only using this to better myself and monitor myself. Others may be playing just to prove a point, just for fun, or for other reasons.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
Naustica,

If the local McDonalds were up to sale, would you look at the past 10 sales of McDonalds and make some sort of chart and determine that a handle formed or some other BS TA measure occurred? Or would you look at the fact that the one you are considering the purchase of has $10K in free cash flow each month and base your offer to buy on that?

Answer wisely, because a stupid answer will result in my offer to sell you a bridge. Hell, you must be trying to buy property in California for 10 cents already!

What was the support level?

What is the resistance?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
Naustica,

If the local McDonalds were up to sale, would you look at the past 10 sales of McDonalds and make some sort of chart and determine that a handle formed or some other BS TA measure occurred? Or would you look at the fact that the one you are considering the purchase of has $10K in free cash flow each month and base your offer to buy on that?

Answer wisely, because a stupid answer will result in my offer to sell you a bridge. Hell, you must be trying to buy property in California for 10 cents already!

What was the support level?

What is the resistance?

Dead Cat bounce baby! Just buy for less in 1 more month! It's a slam dunk

 

[abovewood]

bought KFT at 22.25 today, 1st time holding this stock.
I hope the dividend is safe.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
Naustica,

If the local McDonalds were up to sale, would you look at the past 10 sales of McDonalds and make some sort of chart and determine that a handle formed or some other BS TA measure occurred? Or would you look at the fact that the one you are considering the purchase of has $10K in free cash flow each month and base your offer to buy on that?

Answer wisely, because a stupid answer will result in my offer to sell you a bridge. Hell, you must be trying to buy property in California for 10 cents already!

What was the support level?

What is the resistance?

Dead Cat bounce baby! Just buy for less in 1 more month! It's a slam dunk

You know, what's funny, is that if his strategies were so successful, wouldn't he be a succeeding trader, not a failed one?

You'd think that he would just shut up by now. But then again, he's our version of Jim Cramer, who is finance's version of Jerry Springer.

NAUSTICA NAUSTICA NAUSTICA!