***Official*** 2009 Stock Market Thread

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: JS80
my FAZ bet paying off...off to 100.

Your FAZ is having a major meltdown sitting around $18 right now. Right idea, but too soon! This is a sustained rally with consolidations here and there. Take your losses and we'll find the next ETFC day trade together like old times!

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80
my FAZ bet paying off...off to 100.

Your FAZ is having a major meltdown sitting around $18 right now. Right idea, but too soon! This is a sustained rally with consolidations here and there. Take your losses and we'll find the next ETFC day trade together like old times!

yea my asshole got reamed monday morning. still feeling it.

 

[JS80]

I still think banks will head towards zero

?When you?re buying equities, you?re buying a stream of earnings and current earnings are in freefall,? said Douglas Cliggott, the Greenwich, Connecticut-based manager of the $81 million Dover Long/Short Sector Fund, which beat 97 percent of its peers last year. ?We haven?t hit bottom yet.?

...

Financial shares extended declines after Krugman said in an interview with Bloomberg Television that the financial crisis will force the government to take over big banks. He also predicted the U.S. economy, which shrank 6.2 percent last quarter, won?t stabilize until late this year.

?In the end, we?ll come to it,? Krugman said, referring to nationalizing lenders. ?You guarantee the liabilities of everybody but seize the big ones.?

...

Investors should sell bank stocks because the Treasury?s plan won?t stop profits from dropping, according to Richard Bernstein, Bank of America?s chief U.S. quantitative strategist who is leaving the bank in mid-April to start his own money management firm. Analysts project profit at financial companies in the S&P 500 will decline 33 percent this quarter and 34 percent in the next, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

...

BlackRock Inc.?s global macro fund, the world?s second-best performer over two years among hedge funds that invest based on economic trends, is betting against the equities rally. Its manager David Hudson said the fund is buying bonds as a recovery from the worst credit crisis since the Great Depression falters.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: JS80
I still think banks will head towards zero

?When you?re buying equities, you?re buying a stream of earnings and current earnings are in freefall,? said Douglas Cliggott, the Greenwich, Connecticut-based manager of the $81 million Dover Long/Short Sector Fund, which beat 97 percent of its peers last year. ?We haven?t hit bottom yet.?

...

Financial shares extended declines after Krugman said in an interview with Bloomberg Television that the financial crisis will force the government to take over big banks. He also predicted the U.S. economy, which shrank 6.2 percent last quarter, won?t stabilize until late this year.

?In the end, we?ll come to it,? Krugman said, referring to nationalizing lenders. ?You guarantee the liabilities of everybody but seize the big ones.?

...

Investors should sell bank stocks because the Treasury?s plan won?t stop profits from dropping, according to Richard Bernstein, Bank of America?s chief U.S. quantitative strategist who is leaving the bank in mid-April to start his own money management firm. Analysts project profit at financial companies in the S&P 500 will decline 33 percent this quarter and 34 percent in the next, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

...

BlackRock Inc.?s global macro fund, the world?s second-best performer over two years among hedge funds that invest based on economic trends, is betting against the equities rally. Its manager David Hudson said the fund is buying bonds as a recovery from the worst credit crisis since the Great Depression falters.

The whole "future earnings" aspect of stocks as an argument as to why they should be lower is a bit false, considering the terminal growth assumption of a stock, for the long term, is what sets the majority of the stock's value. short-term earnings may have gone down, but long-term hasn't.

 

[GTKeeper]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: zimu

Originally posted by: Azurik
RMBS' gap from Friday filled, up we go today I think.

or not
...yet

It will, it went down to $9.84 and took out Friday's gap, it's up around $10.05 right now. This is creating a very good base above main resistance levels. It's only going to take one good piece of news for this baby to rocket back to January levels. All signs are still bullish.

I think the news is or should be this Friday or Monday. Hynix's 15 days will be up to appeal...... hopefully we get this January level then.

 

[Azurik]

Hynix is already waiting its fate, it doesn't have the capital required to post a bond to appeal. They are asking Judge Whyte permission for them to post a $200 million supersedes bond, and to use their other tangible assets as collateral. Hynix just can't get creditors to write them a $600 million bond/letter of credit (since Hynix owes Rambus $400 million, a bond 1.5x greater than the damage is usually required for appeal).

I got this from their filing last night:

Motion 3912
Motion 3912 - Attachment A
Motion 3912 - Attachment B

If you look at RMBS' options, the calls are going crazy, along with the volume and price surge earlier this morning due to takeover rumors:

Rambus rises on takeover by Intel or Sun Microsystems
Rambus (RMBS:$10.59,00$0.77,007.84%) is recently up 71c to $10.50 on renewed takeover chatter. RMBS April option implied volatility is at 105, May is at 110; below is 26-week average of 118. RMBS call option volume of 8,781 contracts compares to put volume of 290 contracts according to Track Data, suggesting traders taking positions for upside price movement.


Here's a Reuters newspiece:

Rambus shares, options move on takeover speculation


There has always been speculation in the past on a buyout. It makes sense since Rambus has extremely valuable IP that Intel has recognized since the early 90's. Sun Microsystems makes sense too - not as much as Intel, but I could see why they would want Rambus.

In any case, I think they need to offer at least $4b - $5b at a minimum. Considering the IP Rambus holds and the amount of potential monetary damages they will receive in the next couple years, I don't think Rambus will accept at a price lower than that. With that minimum amount, at 100 million shares outstanding, the stock price would hit $40-$50.

 

[GTKeeper]

Originally posted by: Azurik
Hynix is already waiting its fate, it doesn't have the capital required to post a bond to appeal. They are asking Judge Whyte permission for them to post a $200 million supersedes bond, and to use their other tangible assets as collateral. Hynix just can't get creditors to write them a $600 million bond/letter of credit (since Hynix owes Rambus $400 million, a bond 1.5x greater than the damage is usually required for appeal).

I got this from their filing last night:

Motion 3912
Motion 3912 - Attachment A
Motion 3912 - Attachment B

If you look at RMBS' options, the calls are going crazy, along with the volume and price surge earlier this morning due to takeover rumors:

Rambus rises on takeover by Intel or Sun Microsystems
Rambus (RMBS:$10.59,00$0.77,007.84%) is recently up 71c to $10.50 on renewed takeover chatter. RMBS April option implied volatility is at 105, May is at 110; below is 26-week average of 118. RMBS call option volume of 8,781 contracts compares to put volume of 290 contracts according to Track Data, suggesting traders taking positions for upside price movement.


Here's a Reuters newspiece:

Rambus shares, options move on takeover speculation


There has always been speculation in the past on a buyout. It makes sense since Rambus has extremely valuable IP that Intel has recognized since the early 90's. Sun Microsystems makes sense too - not as much as Intel, but I could see why they would want Rambus.

In any case, I think they need to offer at least $4b - $5b at a minimum. Considering the IP Rambus holds and the amount of potential monetary damages they will receive in the next couple years, I don't think Rambus will accept at a price lower than that. With that minimum amount, at 100 million shares outstanding, the stock price would hit $40-$50.

If a take over were to be announced that is an instant moonshot. Assuming even a conservative $3b-$4b a stock price of 35 bucks in the next few months would make me a lot of money. We shall see though, I still think that this Friday/Monday price goes up some once the official appeal window closes.


I did notice the option volume (I have some calls on this as well) a few days ago. The volume for April 15s or May 15s, dont' quite remember spiked to 2000 contracts traded one of the past few days. That is a lot more than normal.

That article you posted is from 2007 though.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: Azurik
Hynix is already waiting its fate, it doesn't have the capital required to post a bond to appeal. They are asking Judge Whyte permission for them to post a $200 million supersedes bond, and to use their other tangible assets as collateral. Hynix just can't get creditors to write them a $600 million bond/letter of credit (since Hynix owes Rambus $400 million, a bond 1.5x greater than the damage is usually required for appeal).

I got this from their filing last night:

Motion 3912
Motion 3912 - Attachment A
Motion 3912 - Attachment B

If you look at RMBS' options, the calls are going crazy, along with the volume and price surge earlier this morning due to takeover rumors:

Rambus rises on takeover by Intel or Sun Microsystems
Rambus (RMBS:$10.59,00$0.77,007.84%) is recently up 71c to $10.50 on renewed takeover chatter. RMBS April option implied volatility is at 105, May is at 110; below is 26-week average of 118. RMBS call option volume of 8,781 contracts compares to put volume of 290 contracts according to Track Data, suggesting traders taking positions for upside price movement.


Here's a Reuters newspiece:

Rambus shares, options move on takeover speculation


There has always been speculation in the past on a buyout. It makes sense since Rambus has extremely valuable IP that Intel has recognized since the early 90's. Sun Microsystems makes sense too - not as much as Intel, but I could see why they would want Rambus.

In any case, I think they need to offer at least $4b - $5b at a minimum. Considering the IP Rambus holds and the amount of potential monetary damages they will receive in the next couple years, I don't think Rambus will accept at a price lower than that. With that minimum amount, at 100 million shares outstanding, the stock price would hit $40-$50.

If a take over were to be announced that is an instant moonshot. Assuming even a conservative $3b-$4b a stock price of 35 bucks in the next few months would make me a lot of money. We shall see though, I still think that this Friday/Monday price goes up some once the official appeal window closes.


I did notice the option volume (I have some calls on this as well) a few days ago. The volume for April 15s or May 15s, dont' quite remember spiked to 2000 contracts traded one of the past few days. That is a lot more than normal.

That article you posted is from 2007 though.

Opps! I meant the first article is from Fly On The Wall, and wanted to reiterate that takeover rumors have been known in the past as the Reuters article shows.

I have no idea when the next newspiece will hit, there's nothing hard on schedule until next month's Phase I of the Antitrust trial with Judge Kramer.

I don't think the stock price will rise with the appeal window. Hynix will do whatever they can to appeal Whyte's decision. I only see them not appealing from:

1. Settling with Rambus
2. Judge Whyte ordering the full bond for appeal, which Hynix can't come up with

I do, however, think the techical charts still look good and we should rise slowly until we get something newsworthy. It wants to bust out, it just needs the volume to commit. I think the market is going our way too. S&P might consolidate a bit, but it's still going higher like I said previously.

 

[richardycc]

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: Azurik
Hynix is already waiting its fate, it doesn't have the capital required to post a bond to appeal. They are asking Judge Whyte permission for them to post a $200 million supersedes bond, and to use their other tangible assets as collateral. Hynix just can't get creditors to write them a $600 million bond/letter of credit (since Hynix owes Rambus $400 million, a bond 1.5x greater than the damage is usually required for appeal).

I got this from their filing last night:

Motion 3912
Motion 3912 - Attachment A
Motion 3912 - Attachment B

If you look at RMBS' options, the calls are going crazy, along with the volume and price surge earlier this morning due to takeover rumors:

Rambus rises on takeover by Intel or Sun Microsystems
Rambus (RMBS:$10.59,00$0.77,007.84%) is recently up 71c to $10.50 on renewed takeover chatter. RMBS April option implied volatility is at 105, May is at 110; below is 26-week average of 118. RMBS call option volume of 8,781 contracts compares to put volume of 290 contracts according to Track Data, suggesting traders taking positions for upside price movement.


Here's a Reuters newspiece:

Rambus shares, options move on takeover speculation


There has always been speculation in the past on a buyout. It makes sense since Rambus has extremely valuable IP that Intel has recognized since the early 90's. Sun Microsystems makes sense too - not as much as Intel, but I could see why they would want Rambus.

In any case, I think they need to offer at least $4b - $5b at a minimum. Considering the IP Rambus holds and the amount of potential monetary damages they will receive in the next couple years, I don't think Rambus will accept at a price lower than that. With that minimum amount, at 100 million shares outstanding, the stock price would hit $40-$50.

If a take over were to be announced that is an instant moonshot. Assuming even a conservative $3b-$4b a stock price of 35 bucks in the next few months would make me a lot of money. We shall see though, I still think that this Friday/Monday price goes up some once the official appeal window closes.


I did notice the option volume (I have some calls on this as well) a few days ago. The volume for April 15s or May 15s, dont' quite remember spiked to 2000 contracts traded one of the past few days. That is a lot more than normal.

That article you posted is from 2007 though.

lol slow news day that he has to use takeover news from 2007 to pump this stock.

 

[Azurik]

Actually, if you read what I typed above, the blurb about takeover rumors came out THIS morning. The other takeover rumor was from 2007. I should have pointed that out more clearer or proof read before I post, but c'est la vie.

And lets put the pumping to rest... it's already been debated and anyone smart enough would realize pumping a stock on ATOT is the least effective way of doing it, especially on a non-OTC stock. But if you truly believe that, than I want to thank the ATOT'ers out there who bought a couple thousand shares of this and moved the ask by a penny. I'm rich now!

 

[AznMthr]

reading azurik's yearly stock threads shows that he knows more about how the market works than most of us, including you. no one bats 1.000, but he's had some amazing calls. he shorted oil at $142 when most people were predicting that $200 oil was coming. oil topped out at $146. he guessed this rally was going to go for a while and we're currently set to have the biggest monthly gain since 1987.

whether you like rmbs or not, show me one other poster on here who can explain another company to the level of detail that he can with rmbs. no one here has been as thorough or detailed on an individual stock as he has in his rmbs analysis. rmbs may be a speculative stock, but azurik doing his homework gives him the edge on the gamble.

 

[JS80]

I doubled down on my FAZ bet. Going for broke.

 

[hiromizu]

Originally posted by: JS80
I doubled down on my FAZ bet. Going for broke.

probably not a bad idea

 

[HopJokey]

Originally posted by: JS80
I doubled down on my FAZ bet. Going for broke.

I wish you the best of luck.

 

[MrMatt]

I'm going to stick with a position in WAMUQ right now, while this lawsuit against the FDIC plays out. Low risk, only .06/share right now.

 

[hiromizu]

Originally posted by: MrMatt
I'm going to stick with a position in WAMUQ right now, while this lawsuit against the FDIC plays out. Low risk, only .06/share right now.

Ummm....how is that low risk? I don't understand.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: JS80
I doubled down on my FAZ bet. Going for broke.

The markets are up 8% this week alone, FAZ might be a good trade here during profit taking, but I still think we're going higher and higher with this rally still. S&P is around 820 right now... it could surge to 860-870 before a pull back to the high 700's, then to 1050 we go.

 

[GTKeeper]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80
I doubled down on my FAZ bet. Going for broke.

The markets are up 8% this week alone, FAZ might be a good trade here during profit taking, but I still think we're going higher and higher with this rally still. S&P is around 820 right now... it could surge to 860-870 before a pull back to the high 700's, then to 1050 we go.

What time frame are you looking at? Are you expecting earnings season to be 'not as bad' as people think, so we rally through May and then start going back down?

 

[her209]

I thinking about jumping into FAS today. What could be the worse that can happen in the following two scenarios:

- Bank CEOs don't want to participate in the plan to buy up toxic assets by private/public investment
- Bank CEOs want to participate in the plan to buy up toxic assets by private/public investment

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80
I doubled down on my FAZ bet. Going for broke.

The markets are up 8% this week alone, FAZ might be a good trade here during profit taking, but I still think we're going higher and higher with this rally still. S&P is around 820 right now... it could surge to 860-870 before a pull back to the high 700's, then to 1050 we go.

I just have a gut feeling all the rest of dumb retail money (mutual fund money flow) is done, and although technicals say we can move into 900s, hell maybe even 1000, i don't want to lose out when market tanks. Accumulating SRS too.

I hate "trading" but I'm going to have to have tight stops and extreme surveillance. I feel comfortable though that this was a bear rally.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80
I doubled down on my FAZ bet. Going for broke.

The markets are up 8% this week alone, FAZ might be a good trade here during profit taking, but I still think we're going higher and higher with this rally still. S&P is around 820 right now... it could surge to 860-870 before a pull back to the high 700's, then to 1050 we go.

I just have a gut feeling all the rest of dumb retail money (mutual fund money flow) is done, and although technicals say we can move into 900s, hell maybe even 1000, i don't want to lose out when market tanks. Accumulating SRS too.

I hate "trading" but I'm going to have to have tight stops and extreme surveillance. I feel comfortable though that this was a bear rally.

It probably is a bear rally, but I don't think it's over. Financials are basing and getting ready to run next week. Mark to market changes will probably be the catalyst. We are in the GREED phase.

I agree with the tight stops, and I would say good luck, but I have my investments bet on the opposite way. Unless you can my my picks go up while what you want go down then we'll play together

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80
I doubled down on my FAZ bet. Going for broke.

The markets are up 8% this week alone, FAZ might be a good trade here during profit taking, but I still think we're going higher and higher with this rally still. S&P is around 820 right now... it could surge to 860-870 before a pull back to the high 700's, then to 1050 we go.

I just have a gut feeling all the rest of dumb retail money (mutual fund money flow) is done, and although technicals say we can move into 900s, hell maybe even 1000, i don't want to lose out when market tanks. Accumulating SRS too.

I hate "trading" but I'm going to have to have tight stops and extreme surveillance. I feel comfortable though that this was a bear rally.

It probably is a bear rally, but I don't think it's over. Financials are basing and getting ready to run next week. Mark to market changes will probably be the catalyst. We are in the GREED phase.

I agree with the tight stops, and I would say good luck, but I have my investments bet on the opposite way. Unless you can my my picks go up while what you want go down then we'll play together

theoretically we can both lose money because i'm in 3x and 2x vehicles...wouldn't that be some shit

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80
I doubled down on my FAZ bet. Going for broke.

The markets are up 8% this week alone, FAZ might be a good trade here during profit taking, but I still think we're going higher and higher with this rally still. S&P is around 820 right now... it could surge to 860-870 before a pull back to the high 700's, then to 1050 we go.

I just have a gut feeling all the rest of dumb retail money (mutual fund money flow) is done, and although technicals say we can move into 900s, hell maybe even 1000, i don't want to lose out when market tanks. Accumulating SRS too.

I hate "trading" but I'm going to have to have tight stops and extreme surveillance. I feel comfortable though that this was a bear rally.

It probably is a bear rally, but I don't think it's over. Financials are basing and getting ready to run next week. Mark to market changes will probably be the catalyst. We are in the GREED phase.

I agree with the tight stops, and I would say good luck, but I have my investments bet on the opposite way. Unless you can my my picks go up while what you want go down then we'll play together

theoretically we can both lose money because i'm in 3x and 2x vehicles...wouldn't that be some shit

Theorectically, someone can buy out Rambus at $500 a share too, and I would literally shit. And give you what you may have lost... for free!

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80
I doubled down on my FAZ bet. Going for broke.

The markets are up 8% this week alone, FAZ might be a good trade here during profit taking, but I still think we're going higher and higher with this rally still. S&P is around 820 right now... it could surge to 860-870 before a pull back to the high 700's, then to 1050 we go.

I just have a gut feeling all the rest of dumb retail money (mutual fund money flow) is done, and although technicals say we can move into 900s, hell maybe even 1000, i don't want to lose out when market tanks. Accumulating SRS too.

I hate "trading" but I'm going to have to have tight stops and extreme surveillance. I feel comfortable though that this was a bear rally.

It probably is a bear rally, but I don't think it's over. Financials are basing and getting ready to run next week. Mark to market changes will probably be the catalyst. We are in the GREED phase.

I agree with the tight stops, and I would say good luck, but I have my investments bet on the opposite way. Unless you can my my picks go up while what you want go down then we'll play together

theoretically we can both lose money because i'm in 3x and 2x vehicles...wouldn't that be some shit

Theorectically, someone can buy out Rambus at $500 a share too, and I would literally shit. And give you what you may have lost... for free!

lol i'm holding you to that.

but srsly, check out FAZ and FAS. Short both at inception and you make money. pretty crazy.

 

[oznerol]

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80
I doubled down on my FAZ bet. Going for broke.

The markets are up 8% this week alone, FAZ might be a good trade here during profit taking, but I still think we're going higher and higher with this rally still. S&P is around 820 right now... it could surge to 860-870 before a pull back to the high 700's, then to 1050 we go.

What time frame are you looking at? Are you expecting earnings season to be 'not as bad' as people think, so we rally through May and then start going back down?

Well we've hit the "high 700's".

Looks like it's shit or get off the pot time.