***Official*** 2009 Stock Market Thread

[hiromizu]

Understood. I don't day trade but I do on occasion do short term trades where I'd buy and hold for a few months like with oil.

 

[GTKeeper]

Very interesting day today guys. TNX goes up (bond yields go up) and the market falls? Uh oh.... Normally when yields go up the market goes up as well.... Not good. Lets see how well the quantitative easing goes from here on out.

 

[Azurik]

That was an exciting market... I actually don't care what the overall market does so long as RMBS and TSRA are having good days and moving opposite of Mr. Market. I take that back, I do care to a certain point. I'm a long-term buy and hold, but I'm willing to trade other stocks base on current market environments.

A while ago, someone asked me about my portfolio make-up. I spent some time compiling my accounts in Excel. As full disclosure, below is my current holdings (including any call/put holdings), rounded to the nearest thousand:

Cash and Cash Equivalents:
Cash = $57k
Fidelity Money Market = $445k

Individual Stocks:
Rambus = $165k
Tessera = $21k
Senesco = $11k
Dendreon = $10k
United States Oil = $9k
MF Global = $8k
Wells Fargo = $7k
Raytheon = $5k
Kraft = $4k
Citi = $2k

Bonds:
Pimco Bonds Total Return (Institutional) = $185k

Mutual Funds:
S&P 500 = $25k
Dodge & Cox International = $12k
Turner Emerging Growth = $5k
T. Rowe Price Health Sciences = $5k

You can clearly see I am heavily-weighted in cash and bonds since I moved 80% of what I had in stocks the other week into them.

 

[GTKeeper]

I like the T rowe health and science as well. Right now I am 90% in short term treasuries and 10% speculative money (playing/trading the market)

 

[Slew Foot]

Im thinking cash is pretty nice come the summer. Some bad shit on the horizon.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Azurik
That was an exciting market... I actually don't care what the overall market does so long as RMBS and TSRA are having good days and moving opposite of Mr. Market. I take that back, I do care to a certain point. I'm a long-term buy and hold, but I'm willing to trade other stocks base on current market environments.

A while ago, someone asked me about my portfolio make-up. I spent some time compiling my accounts in Excel. As full disclosure, below is my current holdings (including any call/put holdings), rounded to the nearest thousand:

Cash and Cash Equivalents:
Cash = $57k
Fidelity Money Market = $445k

Individual Stocks:
Rambus = $165k
Tessera = $21k
Senesco = $11k
Dendreon = $10k
United States Oil = $9k
MF Global = $8k
Wells Fargo = $7k
Raytheon = $5k
Kraft = $4k
Citi = $2k

Bonds:
Pimco Bonds Total Return (Institutional) = $185k

Mutual Funds:
S&P 500 = $25k
Dodge & Cox International = $12k
Turner Emerging Growth = $5k
T. Rowe Price Health Sciences = $5k

You can clearly see I am heavily-weighted in cash and bonds since I moved 80% of what I had in stocks the other week into them.

If I were you I would hedge some of your cash against dollar become toilet paper. Buy a basket of commodities (RJI) and australian dollars (FXA) and chinese yuan (CNY/CYB).

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: JS80
If I were you I would hedge some of your cash against dollar become toilet paper. Buy a basket of commodities (RJI) and australian dollars (FXA) and chinese yuan (CNY/CYB).

I thought a little about that, the problem is, if the dollar does become toilet paper, there's going to be a lot more problems than trying to hedge other currencies against it. The world is pretty much dependent on the health of the U.S.

Commodities perhaps, aussie money a possibility, but I won't touch the yuan until the government floats it and lets it go to its real value instead of being pegged.

 

[hiromizu]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80
If I were you I would hedge some of your cash against dollar become toilet paper. Buy a basket of commodities (RJI) and australian dollars (FXA) and chinese yuan (CNY/CYB).

I thought a little about that, the problem is, if the dollar does become toilet paper, there's going to be a lot more problems than trying to hedge other currencies against it. The world is pretty much dependent on the health of the U.S.

Commodities perhaps, aussie money a possibility, but I won't touch the yuan until the government floats it and lets it go to its real value instead of being pegged.

I agree. If anything, you should buy canned food, guns n ammo and some real physical gold but even then you're screwed. Realistically you can only stay cautious but optimistic about the future.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Dacalo
Expected Rambus news:

Co announces that the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California has ordered Hynix Semiconductor to secure the judgment amount of ~$397 mln through a combination of a bond and a lien on a Hynix property in South Korea for infringing Rambus patents. The bonded amount of $250 mln is required to be posted within 45 days of the order. The lien will only serve as security if a new appraisal of the Hynix property shows a fair market value of at least double the amount of the judgment not secured by the bond. If the appraisal is inadequate, Rambus may ask the Court to substitute other security. Final judgment in this matter was entered against Hynix on March 10, 2009 in the amount of ~$134 mln for infringement through December 31, 2005 and ~$215 mln for its infringement from January 1, 2006 through January 31, 2009. In addition, the Court awarded ~$48 mln in pre-judgment interest to Rambus.

Text

All Hynix has to do is declare bankruptcy.

Rambus shareholders will get zero.
Hynix bondholders get whatever crumbs are left.

Wrong - that's not how it works. Hynix owes Rambus $400 million, but wants to appeal the decision. In a federal court of law after significant monetary damages are awarded to the winning party, the losing party must secure payment during an appeal when/if they lose. To protect Rambus in the event that Hynix goes belly up before the appeals process is over, Hynix is ordered to do exactly this. They now have 45 days to secure a $250 million bond, lien a property worth at least $300 million (double the remaining $150 million balance because it's a property) and for current infringement, Hynix now has to pay on-going royalties to an escrow account. BTW, this property is selected by Rambus, and Rambus has the right to an appraiser they want.

The $250 million bond and the escrow account for royalties are 100% secure. The property is also secure, my only concern was the value going down below what they owe for Rambus, but with a lien 2x the value, I'm not worried at all.

In other words, Rambus will have $250 million in the bank plus compulsory (forced) royalties from January 29, 2009 onwards in escrow. I bet Rambus will choose the M11 $4 billion dollar facility Hynix just built not too long ago in Cheongju, Korea. If the newest bab is selected, Rambus with its lien can tie up liquidation in bankruptcy until it gets paid $154 million. Even if that doesn't work, which it should, even bulldozing the fab and selling off the land should get Rambus the recovery value. There is also the chance that a dispute of the appraised value gets Rambus better security.

Aside from that, Judge Whyte took the middle path in terms of what Rambus and Hynix wanted in terms of security. I'm happy this is for the full value of the damages because I firmly believe Hynix has no chance of overturning their loss and the money will be in Rambus' hand once the appeals are through. I'm not happy that Hynix has 45 days to do this rather than the standard 14. It appears Hynix swayed the judge with "this is hard economic times" excuse. I also wanted the entire damages in the form of the bond, not collateral foreign property. The latter is just a complaint as it's just more of a hassle which I don't think the winning party should go through.

So if Hynix chooses declares bankruptcy in less than 45 days(before the deadline you mentioned) then everything goes *poof* and the rug gets pulled from underneath RMBS?

What if Hynix isn't able to do that thing within 45 days? What are the possibilities besides the judge choosing to give them more time?

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: GTKeeper
I like the T rowe health and science as well. Right now I am 90% in short term treasuries and 10% speculative money (playing/trading the market)

I used to like that fund.
I do not anymore since I have more experience in the health care field than any other and choose to pay myself the fees and expenses.

GILD
JNJ
TEVA
ESRX

It's interesting to see that 2 of my health care picks are in the top 10 holdings of the fund.
MHS is there too, but unfortunately I prefer their competitor(ESRX) over them(MHS).

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Lothar
So if Hynix chooses declares bankruptcy in less than 45 days(before the deadline you mentioned) then everything goes *poof* and the rug gets pulled from underneath RMBS?

What if Hynix isn't able to do that thing within 45 days? What are the possibilities besides the judge choosing to give them more time?

Those are much better questions

First, I don't think Hynix will declare bankruptcy within that time frame, if they even do at all. They have been raising a significant amount of capital lately to weather the memory wars (which is why I'm surprised Judge Whyte even allowed them to do a lien on their property in the first place). Consolidation in the industry will happen, and the remaining players left from the minefield will in very good shape and very profitable. If they do run out of cash, I also don't think Korea will let Hynix go belly up and just have Samsung as their knight in shining armor.

But that doesn't answer your question. The answer is if they do go bankrupt before the 45 days, then, monetary wise, yes, the rug gets pulled from underneath Rambus. The answer to your second question is, Hynix must secure within 45 days, because if they don't, they can kiss their appeal goodbye and the ruling from Judge Whyte becomes the law.

What I just said is probably Hynix's strongest leverage at this point and something Rambus values. If Hynix doesn't appeal, Judge Whyte's ruling automatically stands and Rambus can use his findings of facts and conclusion of law in their other cases as a hammer.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Lothar
I used to like that fund.
I do not anymore since I have more experience in the health care field than any other and choose to pay myself the fees and expenses.

GILD
JNJ
TEVA
ESRX

It's interesting to see that 2 of my health care picks are in the top 10 holdings of the fund.
MHS is there too, but unfortunately I prefer their competitor(ESRX) over them(MHS).

Out of the 4 stocks you mentioned, which one would you buy right now for the long-term based on price and fundamentals - the one with consistent earnings and potential upside surprise (and why)?

 

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Lothar
I used to like that fund.
I do not anymore since I have more experience in the health care field than any other and choose to pay myself the fees and expenses.

GILD
JNJ
TEVA
ESRX

It's interesting to see that 2 of my health care picks are in the top 10 holdings of the fund.
MHS is there too, but unfortunately I prefer their competitor(ESRX) over them(MHS).

Out of the 4 stocks you mentioned, which one would you buy right now for the long-term based on price and fundamentals - the one with consistent earnings and potential upside surprise (and why)?

I personally would go with JNJ (I have it myself) due to its stability and dividend. Its not a sexy rocketship like RMBS or whatever, but its stable and dependable as a "buy and forget" type stock for retirement.

 

[pravi333]

gm went to 1 cent already? zecco is quoting 1 cent, google finance is saying $3.11!

EDIT: Trading has been halted on GM

Text

 

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: pravi333
gm went to 1 cent already? zecco is quoting 1 cent, google finance is saying $3.11!

Yahoo shows it up about 17 cents to 1.34

 

[GTKeeper]

I think 2 weeks or 3 weeks ago all the GM execs sold out of their stock. That told you to bail (if anyone was crazy enough to own GM)

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: hiromizu

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80
If I were you I would hedge some of your cash against dollar become toilet paper. Buy a basket of commodities (RJI) and australian dollars (FXA) and chinese yuan (CNY/CYB).

I thought a little about that, the problem is, if the dollar does become toilet paper, there's going to be a lot more problems than trying to hedge other currencies against it. The world is pretty much dependent on the health of the U.S.

Commodities perhaps, aussie money a possibility, but I won't touch the yuan until the government floats it and lets it go to its real value instead of being pegged.

I agree. If anything, you should buy canned food, guns n ammo and some real physical gold but even then you're screwed. Realistically you can only stay cautious but optimistic about the future.

I chose AUS because they are self reliant and they have a very low export rate to the US (as opposed to CAD, who relies on US export so they will get flushed along with USD).

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: Azurik
I normally don't pay attention to Jim Cramer, but he actually did a pretty good piece on TSRA yesterday.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1133840348&play=1

I have a pretty big bet with TSRA right now - as stated before, I own shares and a huge option bet with my September $30 calls bought at .55 cents.

I'm betting Motorola signs with TSRA next week, on or before June 4th.

Those calls are worth 87 cents now. If we ramp up, I will sell mine a bit early.

It's $1.15 now, that's a double in less than a week I haven't sold any yet.

All indicators are bullish on TSRA right now and we made a golden cross today. If the licenses are signed as I suspect (beginning with Motorola next week), I think we make a run past $30 sooner than my anticipated September timeframe.

 

[Azurik]

Here's my take: fundamentals absolutely rule long-term, but technicals help out in terms of placing trades and seeking out short-term movement absent any market moving news.

I haven't seen such a bullish signal for this stock since QCOM back in 1999 before it made its massive run:

http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin...=1&cobrand=&mode=stock

That is beautiful.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Lothar
I used to like that fund.
I do not anymore since I have more experience in the health care field than any other and choose to pay myself the fees and expenses.

GILD
JNJ
TEVA
ESRX

It's interesting to see that 2 of my health care picks are in the top 10 holdings of the fund.
MHS is there too, but unfortunately I prefer their competitor(ESRX) over them(MHS).

Out of the 4 stocks you mentioned, which one would you buy right now for the long-term based on price and fundamentals - the one with consistent earnings and potential upside surprise (and why)?

If I was investing today, it would be JNJ, TEVA, GILD, ESRX.
Yes, in that order.

JNJ:
Stability, valuation, dividend, excellent management, excellent growth(how many companies as big as JNJ can still continue growing at 8-10+% per year?), very diversified(unlike PFE which is almost pure drug they're in consumer/OTC products, drugs, medical devices, and others). Warren Buffett and Prem Watsa("Canadian Warren Buffett") both have this stock. That's good enough for me.

TEVA:
Generics. Patent cliff 2008-2013. The company was a little overvalued before the Barr acquisition but now I feel it's undervalued. They're a very aggressive company. In fact they are the only generic company with the balls to stand up to the pharmaceutical industry and challenge patents. Recent generics released: Protonix, Topamax, Risperdal, Depakote, Adderall XR. The merger between Teva and Barr was an excellent merger with no overlap. Now TEVA has a big foothold in the OC(oral contraceptive) market thanks to Barr acquisition. Plus we all know how smart Jewish people are
They are already challenging Merck's Singulair medication patent in court which isn't set to expire until 2012. :Q
Good! :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

GILD:
I've had this for a while now more than any of the others. Biotech and specialty pharmacies has been responsible for more than 80% of the growth in the industry vs the ~15-20% coming from the traditional big pharma drug companies like PFE, and others the past 5-10 years. They still have their HIV monopoly.
There is no HIV medication on the market better than Truvada and Atripla, period. If they reach $50+ again, I might consider selling some only to acquire more shares in JNJ, TEVA or other undervalued companies. I already sold some earlier a few months ago when it was trading in the $50's.

ESRX:
Beautiful mail order to cut costs unlike many of their competitors.
I consider this to be the best PBM in the industry. Most investors seem to have a hard-on for Medco or CVS/Caremark, but I don't. Based on what I deal with , they're top dog(i deal with insurance companies everyday). I'm considering selling my shares in the company because I see better value on the market and would rather own JNJ or TEVA over it.

 

[Blueychan]

Azurik when did you start taking notice of TSRA and how much you got in at ?

Just curious, I know you just don't randomly stumble upon these stocks like DNDN TSRA
ect. Where and how do you to your research?

Thanks

 

[Blueychan]

Lagged double post sorry

 

[SilentZero]

Buy beer stock!

5k posts! Woot!

 

[hiromizu]

TSRA looks extremely good

 

[DaWhim]

sell in May and go away. Anyone else think the market will be coming down?