***Official*** 2009 Stock Market Thread

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: DaWhim
sell in May and go away. Anyone else think the market will be coming down?

Thats largely my theory, though theres a couple stocks im liking for a little bull run here.

 

[hiromizu]

Originally posted by: DaWhim
sell in May and go away. Anyone else think the market will be coming down?

Hard to predict that one and I don't believe in patterns too much.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: DaWhim
sell in May and go away. Anyone else think the market will be coming down?

Don't believe in that theory.
If the market is going down, it will go down.

The fact that it's May(or it might happen after May) has little to do with it.

 

[al981]

Originally posted by: pravi333
any of you have a account that enables you to trade after hours? if so what site & how much extra do they charge for that?

Scottrade has after / pre market trading (same cost as any other transaction, $7).

Click on Trade --> then "Pre-Market / After-Hours" link on the left.

I assume other brokerages would have something similar.

 

[Azurik]

I'm putting everything back into the market that I put out the other week come Monday.

I saw energy take the lead from financials to support the market. Now if financials rise again after a week's worth of consolidation, I think we go to S&P 1,050 if we break the 930-940 level.

Kinda looks like the same scenario that played a few months back when S&P was at 700ish. Too many doubters around and everyone preparing for the worst. That was the main reason I predicted that S&P would hit 900+ and would have a multi-month rally. I don't think it's going to end yet. We're still in a secular bear market and de-leveraging financials will have a huge negative impact, but this rally might still have legs.

RMBS looks poised as it has been for several weeks now to make a big move to at least $19.

So this weekend's Azurik prediction is: S&P rallies for another 2-3 months if we can blow past S&P 930/940 - we can see 1,050 in that case. RMBS makes a big run. TSRA looks stellar for a run past $30 once the dominoes of settlements come in. Financials will do good.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Blueychan
Azurik when did you start taking notice of TSRA and how much you got in at ?

Just curious, I know you just don't randomly stumble upon these stocks like DNDN TSRA
ect. Where and how do you to your research?

Thanks

I've known about TSRA for a while now, probably since early 2004. I just never bought TSRA until earlier this year. I've traded its stock and options for a gain of several thousand so far. Currently, I own 75 of the Sept $30 calls I bought at $0.55 cents. It's trading now at $1.20 or so - a double up, but I haven't sold any yet. I also have 500 shares sporting a pretty good gain.

As your question to how I know about these stocks, the world of finance is really about money+power, and I mean that in the most humble way and through my own experience. Financial success opens a lot of doors, windows of opportunity and networks one normally wouldn't come across. You get whispers and rumors before it makes headlines on the Wall Street Journal or Barron's. I was attracted to ATOT while I was in college so I share these thoughts with you guys, as a forum to openly discuss and share ideas about various companies. Whether you buy or sell is on your own, but I trade them like I tell it here.

I've focused on intellectual property (IP) companies for a while now, mainly RMBS. By being an extremely active investor, I've met some bright individuals, got into their networks and get to hear other ideas they may have. It's up to me to make the decision to buy/sell though, and from my own due diligence. I also have a certain appetite for risk and try not to trade on the emotional side of things, but do it on facts and let the markets eventually adjust.

DNDN was a play I found out through a friend of mine in the field. It was a highly discussed company within the bio industry due to its "first of kind" treatment. If their drug was approved and successfully marketed, it would open doors to a lot more treatments of similiar nature. There was a lot of political pull on both sides of this. It made for an interesting stock.

 

[MrMatt]

I am absolutely giddy about GM on Monday & Tuesday. I'm looking to follow FRE and CEMJQ with it for another successful bounce play.

 

[al981]

azurik: appreciate your willingness to share such info (same can be said for a few other posters on here). i've been lurking for awhile, but reading through these investing threads helped me to get started on researching and dd.

 

[pravi333]

Originally posted by: Azurik
I'm putting everything back into the market that I put out the other week come Monday.

I saw energy take the lead from financials to support the market. Now if financials rise again after a week's worth of consolidation, I think we go to S&P 1,050 if we break the 930-940 level.

But the demand for energy is only on paper so far, i have no clue why crude oil jumped up so fast right around memorial day! Actual demand for oil is 1.8 million barrels down compared to last year. I hope this rally ends at 940 but i dont think when it falls its going to go to March low's.

Dollar falling adds a different side to this as well. I jumped on gold stocks (ASA), lets see how that goes.

 

[Blueychan]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Blueychan
Azurik when did you start taking notice of TSRA and how much you got in at ?

Just curious, I know you just don't randomly stumble upon these stocks like DNDN TSRA
ect. Where and how do you to your research?

Thanks

As your question to how I know about these stocks, the world of finance is really about money+power, and I mean that in the most humble way and through my own experience. Financial success opens a lot of doors, windows of opportunity and networks one normally wouldn't come across. You get whispers and rumors before it makes headlines on the Wall Street Journal or Barron's. I was attracted to ATOT while I was in college so I share these thoughts with you guys, as a forum to openly discuss and share ideas about various companies. Whether you buy or sell is on your own, but I trade them like I tell it here.

I pretty much kind of knew that was the case but I had to ask anyway. Thanks for sharing your thoughts with us Azurik. I am pretty new at stock and option and try to gather as much information as possible as I go along. Your posts and Lothar's posts and a few other members' posts have been very helpful.

 

[hiromizu]

I'm going all in tomorrow as well. Solar, financials and India.

 

[GML3G0]

Originally posted by: MrMatt
I am absolutely giddy about GM on Monday & Tuesday. I'm looking to follow FRE and CEMJQ with it for another successful bounce play.

:heart: CEMJQ. I've been holding a few thousand shares since $0.05. Plan to sell 2/3 of my shares at $1, and riding the rest.

 

[Slew Foot]

What are you guys so giddy about financials for? I can see some of the the other sectors doing OK, but that one scares me.

 

[hiromizu]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
What are you guys so giddy about financials for? I can see some of the the other sectors doing OK, but that one scares me.

It's more of a hopeless hope in that if the financials fail, we're f'd in every orifice so it must be repaired, return to lending and provide confidence n stuff like that. Besides, it's been outperforming everything else in the last 2 months except energy.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: hiromizu

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
What are you guys so giddy about financials for? I can see some of the the other sectors doing OK, but that one scares me.

It's more of a hopeless hope in that if the financials fail, we're f'd in every orifice so it must be repaired, return to lending and provide confidence n stuff like that. Besides, it's been outperforming everything else in the last 2 months except energy.

Piggybacking Warren Buffet is never a bad thing. He bought more WFC when t got diluted by !!!!6%!!!! Whooopiieee!! HE also added to his USB holdings.

Well, should have listened to me when you had the chance. Bank stocks were undervalued a month or two ago. Now, you probably can still by at a discount, but hell, I bought WFC when the sale sign said "50% off" ($14.19). Nothing like buying when napkins and a pencil are all that are needed for the math. Someone else i know bought WFC at $10! No, we are not selling. We are waiting for the inevitable 50 years from now. Think for yourself an think about what is going to happen. You think WMT, COST, and TGT are the only mom 'n' pop killers around? I think that is laughable.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Lothar
I used to like that fund.
I do not anymore since I have more experience in the health care field than any other and choose to pay myself the fees and expenses.

GILD
JNJ
TEVA
ESRX

It's interesting to see that 2 of my health care picks are in the top 10 holdings of the fund.
MHS is there too, but unfortunately I prefer their competitor(ESRX) over them(MHS).

Out of the 4 stocks you mentioned, which one would you buy right now for the long-term based on price and fundamentals - the one with consistent earnings and potential upside surprise (and why)?

If I was investing today, it would be JNJ, TEVA, GILD, ESRX.
Yes, in that order.

JNJ:
Stability, valuation, dividend, excellent management, excellent growth(how many companies as big as JNJ can still continue growing at 8-10+% per year?), very diversified(unlike PFE which is almost pure drug they're in consumer/OTC products, drugs, medical devices, and others). Warren Buffett and Prem Watsa("Canadian Warren Buffett") both have this stock. That's good enough for me.

TEVA:
Generics. Patent cliff 2008-2013. The company was a little overvalued before the Barr acquisition but now I feel it's undervalued. They're a very aggressive company. In fact they are the only generic company with the balls to stand up to the pharmaceutical industry and challenge patents. Recent generics released: Protonix, Topamax, Risperdal, Depakote, Adderall XR. The merger between Teva and Barr was an excellent merger with no overlap. Now TEVA has a big foothold in the OC(oral contraceptive) market thanks to Barr acquisition. Plus we all know how smart Jewish people are
They are already challenging Merck's Singulair medication patent in court which isn't set to expire until 2012. :Q
Good! :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

GILD:
I've had this for a while now more than any of the others. Biotech and specialty pharmacies has been responsible for more than 80% of the growth in the industry vs the ~15-20% coming from the traditional big pharma drug companies like PFE, and others the past 5-10 years. They still have their HIV monopoly.
There is no HIV medication on the market better than Truvada and Atripla, period. If they reach $50+ again, I might consider selling some only to acquire more shares in JNJ, TEVA or other undervalued companies. I already sold some earlier a few months ago when it was trading in the $50's.

ESRX:
Beautiful mail order to cut costs unlike many of their competitors.
I consider this to be the best PBM in the industry. Most investors seem to have a hard-on for Medco or CVS/Caremark, but I don't. Based on what I deal with , they're top dog(i deal with insurance companies everyday). I'm considering selling my shares in the company because I see better value on the market and would rather own JNJ or TEVA over it.

JNJ is run much like BRK. They are both large conglomerates and the only way to run a very mega-conglomerate is to buy other companies and let those companies do what they have been doing all along. You do not micromanage a mega conglomerate. All the free cash flows go back to corporate HQ for reinvestment. This is where JNJ shines and PFE is epic failure.

Disclaimer: I bought PFE when I was a new investor. I will never buy more. EVER unless there is a game changer in the way the company is managed. They need to adopt JNJs model. I will happily add more JNJ if I get the chance. I'm happy with what I have for now. For what it is worth, I think JNJ is worth $90 or so using a discounted cash flow model. JNJ is easy to do this with. However at $90 the PE ratio gets a bit high. Regardless, WEB seems to agree since he was buying at $60. Figure that he has atleast a 25% margin of safety and you are figuring that WEB sees JNJ being worth over $80. With JNJ, this could be an example of Warren Buffet (WEB) buying a wonderful company at a fair price.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: SilentZero
Buy beer stock!

5k posts! Woot!

In a bad economy, your better off with hard liquor companies. if you are a value investor, you were best off buying BUD. Can't do that anymore though.

 

[Slew Foot]

If i had to buy a bank now for the long term it'd would be wfc. I think for the short term there are better deals around. <cue js80- banks are insolvent!>

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
If i had to buy a bank now for the long term it'd would be wfc. I think for the short term there are better deals around. <cue js80- banks are insolvent!>

In terms of the short term, thinking that way is a loosing game over the long term.

 

[Azurik]

Forgot to mention, today is a big day for RMBS. Judge Kramer needs to confirm his tentative decision to ignore Judge Robinson's ruling and proceed with the 2nd phase of the trial this September.

This is slated to start later today in California. I would say this will be an important event, and a market moving event, but who knows what Mr. Market thinks.

 

[Azurik]

Bought some RMBS leaps to go with my shares.

January 2010 $30 calls for $0.74 cents.

RMBS.......ascending triangle break out
DNDN......triangle break out........dead center breakout (squeezed out)
ELN..........ascending triangle break out
TSRA........breakaway gaps.......wow! (only a slight "look back on Friday"......buyers have to bid up to get in.......

This is typical of greed coming back, small highly volatile stocks bid up. They are the first to sink, and not the first to rise, but when the time comes (usually after a move up in big caps and other less volatile small caps), they start to run, and when they run and run hard...

 

[Slew Foot]

RMBS on the move, and my 200 contracts are in the money

edit:
I cant relly see any reason for the market overall to be jumping today/recently. Aside from the "maybe this isnt so bad", theres no real reason for most of the jump, beating low expections that were revised downward? Consumer spending pretty low, rising gas prices, huge jump in foreclosures.

Anyhoo, rmbs, tsra, c are my main short term calls, though im thinking of making some longer term committments to rmbs. I like your leap idea Azurik, but I think I'd go farther out. If history is any detail, this stock will take longer than you think to break out.

 

[thepd7]

Question: what does the GM bankruptcy mean for stockholders. If the stock loses all value why is it wtill trading at $1?

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
RMBS on the move, and my 200 contracts are in the money

edit:
I cant relly see any reason for the market overall to be jumping today/recently. Aside from the "maybe this isnt so bad", theres no real reason for most of the jump, beating low expections that were revised downward? Consumer spending pretty low, rising gas prices, huge jump in foreclosures.

Anyhoo, rmbs, tsra, c are my main short term calls, though im thinking of making some longer term committments to rmbs. I like your leap idea Azurik, but I think I'd go farther out. If history is any detail, this stock will take longer than you think to break out.

I agree and I didn't buy the calls based on my expectations that the trial will end. I already made my bet with the amount of shares I have. The LEAPS are just my bet that by January 2010 at least one MM will have settled with RMBS as the trial (which I just got word) is Kramer is going to rule trial starts on time) begins OR that the ITC will have ruled in regards to Rambus vs Nvidia (trial schedule shows a tentative ruling by early December) OR a major announcement happens with Rambus' future technology.

I know, it's a lot of ORs, so what?

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
If i had to buy a bank now for the long term it'd would be wfc. I think for the short term there are better deals around. <cue js80- banks are insolvent!>

i'm about to throw in the towel. even if they are insolvent (which they are), I think the lesson to learn here is that the government can just prop it up indefinitely.