***Official*** 2009 Stock Market Thread

[Slew Foot]

How long is this trial going to last? Is this an OJ type thing thats going to go on for years?

 

[gotsmack]

I just say this thread and only read the last 25 or so posts. TSRA looks interesting withwhat is happening on Wednesday. I decided to gamble and placed in an order for some June calls.

My holdings are

ATVI
RAD
NTDOY

GLD
MOS
BG
CF

I'm strongly hedged against inflation through gold and commodity company holdings. Thos are all winners except for CF which I paid $82.50 for, but that was a speculation play on a buyout anyway and it is a strong company.

I'm not too sure about NTDOY making a comeback to the $65 I paid for it, but I'm sure it won't drop much lower, so I'll hold until I sell my winners to offset my cap gains.

RAD is on a tear, I've been eyeballing it since 61¢ and got in at 92¢.

ATVI has to hit $14 by Jan for my calls to be even money. I'm not too worried, since I really believe in Blizzard's ability to continue to perform.

Last year I lost 33% of my wealth in financials, hopefully I can make it back this year. The this I did learn from that is to be more disciplined in dumping my losers.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
How long is this trial going to last? Is this an OJ type thing thats going to go on for years?

This will be one of the faster trial schedules now that it has finally begun. A trial starting in late September will end sometime in November.

The ITC case against Nvidia will end around then too. Lots of things happening.

 

[Slew Foot]

whoa.....

rmbs

Bid: 12.59 x 200
Ask: 27.58 x 200

 

[pravi333]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
whoa.....

rmbs

Bid: 12.59 x 200
Ask: 27.58 x 200

oooh, Azurik was predicting high teens in the short term, but this 27.58 looks enticing! Probably will sell for that rate during markets open for a short time. Asian market was not promising today, i expect American market to either go down or just hover around today.

EDIT: Went back to sane levels

Bid $14.12
Ask $14.24

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: pravi333

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
whoa.....

rmbs

Bid: 12.59 x 200
Ask: 27.58 x 200

oooh, Azurik was predicting high teens in the short term, but this 27.58 looks enticing! Probably will sell for that rate during markets open for a short time. Asian market was not promising today, i expect American market to either go down or just hover around today.

EDIT: Went back to sane levels

Bid $14.12
Ask $14.24

RMBS was headed for a $15+ open until the media hammered out the Nvidia/PTO story. The only one who reported it correctly was Bloomberg. The PTO almost always initially rejects patents on initial review if it's challenged... doesn't mean squat. I love how they announce it the morning after a big day in court for Rambus.

 

[Azurik]

*yawn*

 

[hiromizu]

Whatchu think of CY?

 

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: Azurik
*yawn*

Yeah not a lot going on, i took the opportunity to buy some more calls of tsra in hopes of a swarm of contracts being hammered out, and some more leaps for rmbs.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

Originally posted by: Azurik
*yawn*

Yeah not a lot going on, i took the opportunity to buy some more calls of tsra in hopes of a swarm of contracts being hammered out, and some more leaps for rmbs.

I bought additional TSRA shares to go along with my 500 shares and Sept $30 calls - reliable friend told me they're going to halt after hours tonight. BUY IN if you believe!!!

 

[Azurik]

Motorola agrees to sign license and settles with TSRA.

Geez, I'm batting 100% on TSRA predictions. WOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOO!

EDIT: TSRA raises 2nd quarter revenue guidance by an additional $12 million dollars. For a small company with a market cap of just over $1 billion, this is good news! Annual revenue from Motorola should be about $60 million - $65 million dollars from my estimate. They are predicting expenses to remain the same, which means this goes to bottom-line profit!

This is a "T3" halt, so trades will resumes at 4:30PM EST. It looks like it going to resume somewhere between $26 to $29.

Those Sept $30's are looking might delicious

 

[JS80]

ugh why can't rambus run to 20

 

[Azurik]

TSRA resumes trading bouncing between $26-28. This stock was just $14 when I pegged the ITC court decision less than 3 weeks ago.

There's still 5 players left that need/should sign. I'm not going to say they are or jinx myself, but if they all sign, I expect TSRA to gain 90% of the mobile market with earnings that would justify a $40-$50 price tag. If their DRAM cases go to same way, it could be $70-$80.

 

[Slew Foot]

Thanks Azurik, youve earned a beer. PM me your address
TSRA up 10% in afterhours

 

[JS80]

arrrrgh, i shoulda rolled that $5k to TSRA options first and then to RMBS

 

[gotsmack]

Good call Azurik. My June calls at 25 strike are going to pay off handsomely tomorrow. Now the question is do I sell off tomorrow or hold until the 18th?

 

[Slew Foot]

rmbs doesnt have a whole lot of action in the near term, September when the trail starts, November when its done, then dec/jan for a ruling. tsra has people signing contracts now.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
rmbs doesnt have a whole lot of action in the near term, September when the trail starts, November when its done, then dec/jan for a ruling. tsra has people signing contracts now.

Exactly, BUT, if you believe in technicals absent news, RMBS almost has as great a technical picture as TSRA. If the market is willing to participate, RMBS will march to $19 before any of the trials start.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik
That was an exciting market... I actually don't care what the overall market does so long as RMBS and TSRA are having good days and moving opposite of Mr. Market. I take that back, I do care to a certain point. I'm a long-term buy and hold, but I'm willing to trade other stocks base on current market environments.

A while ago, someone asked me about my portfolio make-up. I spent some time compiling my accounts in Excel. As full disclosure, below is my current holdings (including any call/put holdings), rounded to the nearest thousand:

Cash and Cash Equivalents:
Cash = $57k
Fidelity Money Market = $445k

Individual Stocks:
Rambus = $165k
Tessera = $21k
Senesco = $11k
Dendreon = $10k
United States Oil = $9k
MF Global = $8k
Wells Fargo = $7k
Raytheon = $5k
Kraft = $4k
Citi = $2k

Bonds:
Pimco Bonds Total Return (Institutional) = $185k

Mutual Funds:
S&P 500 = $25k
Dodge & Cox International = $12k
Turner Emerging Growth = $5k
T. Rowe Price Health Sciences = $5k

You can clearly see I am heavily-weighted in cash and bonds since I moved 80% of what I had in stocks the other week into them.

If I were you I would hedge some of your cash against dollar become toilet paper. Buy a basket of commodities (RJI) and australian dollars (FXA) and chinese yuan (CNY/CYB).

I'm actually thinking of selling my USO shares and play a long-term call on it. It's up a decent amount and I'm not sure how oil will play short-term with so many variables involved. Long-term, oil is going up.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Blueychan

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Blueychan
Azurik when did you start taking notice of TSRA and how much you got in at ?

Just curious, I know you just don't randomly stumble upon these stocks like DNDN TSRA
ect. Where and how do you to your research?

Thanks

As your question to how I know about these stocks, the world of finance is really about money+power, and I mean that in the most humble way and through my own experience. Financial success opens a lot of doors, windows of opportunity and networks one normally wouldn't come across. You get whispers and rumors before it makes headlines on the Wall Street Journal or Barron's. I was attracted to ATOT while I was in college so I share these thoughts with you guys, as a forum to openly discuss and share ideas about various companies. Whether you buy or sell is on your own, but I trade them like I tell it here.

I pretty much kind of knew that was the case but I had to ask anyway. Thanks for sharing your thoughts with us Azurik. I am pretty new at stock and option and try to gather as much information as possible as I go along. Your posts and Lothar's posts and a few other members' posts have been very helpful.

You're welcome!

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: gotsmack
Good call Azurik. My June calls at 25 strike are going to pay off handsomely tomorrow. Now the question is do I sell off tomorrow or hold until the 18th?

I would sell half now and roll them over.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
rmbs doesnt have a whole lot of action in the near term, September when the trail starts, November when its done, then dec/jan for a ruling. tsra has people signing contracts now.

Exactly, BUT, if you believe in technicals absent news, RMBS almost has as great a technical picture as TSRA. If the market is willing to participate, RMBS will march to $19 before any of the trials start.

This is my hope, hence the july 15s.

Az, which RMBS leaps are you holding?

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
rmbs doesnt have a whole lot of action in the near term, September when the trail starts, November when its done, then dec/jan for a ruling. tsra has people signing contracts now.

Exactly, BUT, if you believe in technicals absent news, RMBS almost has as great a technical picture as TSRA. If the market is willing to participate, RMBS will march to $19 before any of the trials start.

This is my hope, hence the july 15s.

Az, which RMBS leaps are you holding?

13,000 shares, 100 contracts of Jan 2010 $30's, 50 contracts of the Jan 2010 $25's

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
rmbs doesnt have a whole lot of action in the near term, September when the trail starts, November when its done, then dec/jan for a ruling. tsra has people signing contracts now.

Exactly, BUT, if you believe in technicals absent news, RMBS almost has as great a technical picture as TSRA. If the market is willing to participate, RMBS will march to $19 before any of the trials start.

This is my hope, hence the july 15s.

Az, which RMBS leaps are you holding?

13,000 shares, 100 contracts of Jan 2010 $30's, 50 contracts of the Jan 2010 $25's

If they win, what do you expect the win value to be?

 

[Azurik]

I'm out on a last minute trip to meet a couple of people to discuss another hot stock (lol, I sound like a pump and dumper). This one could be a mimic of TSRA. I'll be back later tomorrow. Glad you guys got in.

Slew Foot, I'm PMing you my address so you can send those beers over!