***Official*** 2009 Stock Market Thread

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
The markets will price in a recovery in the economy before the recovery happens. I'm betting that by the end of 2009 we will have a recovery in the stock market.

End of 2009 is long ways off. The question is whether you can remain solvent long enough to participate in the recovery. Who knows from what levels we will recover from if we have recovery this year.

 

[abovewood]

Originally posted by: Naustica
Today we had official bank crash. The banking index (BKX) dropped 20% today to close at 25.34. Anything 20% or over is considered a crash. The banking index is down over 80% from its all time high set less than 2 years ago. Banks like State Street Corp (STT) closed down cool 59% today! Normally the market follows the banks and if that's the case, we could see S&P 650 if followed. Do I think we will get there? Yes, eventually. But I think we'll see a bounce in the banks and the market before that plunge.

I remember when BKX 60 was a major support after the summer crash. That level looks like a mountain now.

What do you think BAC will bounce back to in the short term?
7?

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: abovewood

Originally posted by: Naustica
Today we had official bank crash. The banking index (BKX) dropped 20% today to close at 25.34. Anything 20% or over is considered a crash. The banking index is down over 80% from its all time high set less than 2 years ago. Banks like State Street Corp (STT) closed down cool 59% today! Normally the market follows the banks and if that's the case, we could see S&P 650 if followed. Do I think we will get there? Yes, eventually. But I think we'll see a bounce in the banks and the market before that plunge.

I remember when BKX 60 was a major support after the summer crash. That level looks like a mountain now.

What do you think BAC will bounce back to in the short term?
7?

0.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: abovewood

Originally posted by: Naustica
Today we had official bank crash. The banking index (BKX) dropped 20% today to close at 25.34. Anything 20% or over is considered a crash. The banking index is down over 80% from its all time high set less than 2 years ago. Banks like State Street Corp (STT) closed down cool 59% today! Normally the market follows the banks and if that's the case, we could see S&P 650 if followed. Do I think we will get there? Yes, eventually. But I think we'll see a bounce in the banks and the market before that plunge.

I remember when BKX 60 was a major support after the summer crash. That level looks like a mountain now.

What do you think BAC will bounce back to in the short term?
7?

Depends where BAC bounces from. I'm looking for similar bounce to one experienced by Citi back in Nov '08 where it bounced from around $3.75 back to 9. If BAC bounces from $5, maybe $10 if we're lucky.

Stocks often likes to rhyme.

 

[Pocatello]

According to CNN, Obama raises hand, lifts a nation. I wish he would do the same with BoA, I have money there.

 

[ponyo]

Just bought some Wells Fargo @ $14.14. WFC feels heavy and it's looking ugly but I've to take the otherside of the trade. Banking Index crashed yesterday so maybe the "best of breed" will bounce. Still holding BAC as well.

Either the banking index will bounce and rise to become par with the S&P index or S&P will fall hard to join the banking index. I'm betting with my money on option 1.

 

[tefleming]

Anyone got an opinion on AAPL stock? I bought some on a dip (after Steve's medical leave announcement) and think they're going to have better than expected earnings today (and the usual lower than expected guidance.)

I figured that since they've got almost $25 Billion with a "B" in Cash / ST Investments (which works out to roughly $30 per share common stock,) and a pretty deep executive talent bench that a loss of Steve shouldn't derail the company (short term).

//EDIT:
I don't have the stomach for Bank stocks right now. Not after what C did to me... I also think the 'floor' might be yet to come.

 

[ponyo]

Sold 1/2 of BAC @ $6.60 and 1/2 of WFC @ $15.80 to lock in some gains. Banking Index bounced 12% higher today, and I got the bounce I was looking for. I'm in the rental business with these bank names, and I do not want to own them. I think both names are going higher and there's still plenty room for them to run but you never go broke from taking profits.

 

[abovewood]

We got a nice bounce today. I also sold some of the BAC shares bought yesterday. Hope it will go higher tomorrow.


Edit:

I have some STX shares, wanted to add more yesterday, but didn't.

Seagate Technology (Nasdaq: STX - News) today reported preliminary results for the quarter ended January 2, 2009 of 37 million disk drive unit shipments, revenue of $2.3 billion, a net loss of $496 million, and net loss per share of $1.02 for the quarter ended January 2, 2009.

 

[ponyo]

Jamie Dimon and Ken Lewis bought shares.

About time these bozos started buying shares with their own money.

 

[SSSnail]

Meh, I'm going long on energy and gonna take a break, this shit is killing me. I've lost weight within a few months, couldn't sleep...

 

[Ricochet]

Originally posted by: tefleming
Anyone got an opinion on AAPL stock? I bought some on a dip (after Steve's medical leave announcement) and think they're going to have better than expected earnings today (and the usual lower than expected guidance.)

I figured that since they've got almost $25 Billion with a "B" in Cash / ST Investments (which works out to roughly $30 per share common stock,) and a pretty deep executive talent bench that a loss of Steve shouldn't derail the company (short term).

//EDIT:
I don't have the stomach for Bank stocks right now. Not after what C did to me... I also think the 'floor' might be yet to come.

Looks like you made the right call. Considering the after hours trading it jumped about 16% from yesterday's closing price.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: SSSnail
Meh, I'm going long on energy and gonna take a break, this shit is killing me. I've lost weight within a few months, couldn't sleep...

If you can't sleep and watching every tick of movement glued to the screen, it means you have too much exposure. Trading is lot like poker. You have to pick your spot, wait for a good hand, and bet accordingly.

If you want to experience stress, try trading for a living. I've lot of respect for people who trade their own account for a living.

 

[richardycc]

Originally posted by: richardycc

Originally posted by: zimu

Originally posted by: richardycc
bought some GMCR today, been watching this stock even since I found out they own Keurig. I love my B70 machine. this is definitely a case of 'invest in what you use.' with the big drop today, I got some at 35.93, and the stock has been channeling around $35-$39 for awhile.

cur: 34.46. hope they stop the downward trend for your sake


i used the dip in rmbs this morning to expand my holding with them. go rmbs go!!

I am not worry, this stock has huge swing...up and down $2+/day is normal due to its huge short interest, huge insitutions and insiders holdings. wish I waited one more day thou...earning is coming on the 28th, it should be pretty good.

earning must be good, up 0.74, closed at 37.93 today.

 

[SSSnail]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: SSSnail
Meh, I'm going long on energy and gonna take a break, this shit is killing me. I've lost weight within a few months, couldn't sleep...

If you can't sleep and watching every tick of movement glued to the screen, it means you have too much exposure. Trading is lot like poker. You have to pick your spot, wait for a good hand, and bet accordingly.

If you want to experience stress, try trading for a living. I've lot of respect for people who trade their own account for a living.

You obviously don't play poker, but I do agree that it's gambling.

 

[Miramonti]

Originally posted by: tefleming
Anyone got an opinion on AAPL stock? I bought some on a dip (after Steve's medical leave announcement) and think they're going to have better than expected earnings today (and the usual lower than expected guidance.)

Nice call on AAPL. :thumbsup:

 

[ponyo]

Bought back 1/2 BAC I sold yesterday at $5.64. We should see upside try again at some point today and banks should lead. Just trading around positions.

 

[ponyo]

We got the upside try I was looking for after the nasty down morning. That was the easy trade of the day. Now it gets tough. I still like the financials here for a trade.

Buyers are higher and sellers are lower.

 

[Miramonti]

My best trade of the day - buying GTXI at 10.10.

My worst trade of the day, selling it at 10.25 after losing faith, lol.

 

[imported_Lothar]

It's good to see that moron John Thain finally resign from BAC.
He should have been ousted months ago. Secretly paying his execs $3-4 billion in bonuses last month, while his company posted a $15 billion loss in the 4th quarter.

BAC has always been my favorite financial company for the past 2 years.
The way they handled this Merrill acquisition is just plain ridiculous. I don't know if I can ever forgive them.
I also won't even think twice about buying their stock as long as the government is involved.

 

[flashbacck]

Originally posted by: Lothar
It's good to see that moron John Thain finally resign from BAC.
He should have been ousted months ago. Secretly paying his execs $3-4 billion in bonuses last month, while his company posted a $15 billion loss in the 4th quarter.

BAC has always been my favorite financial company for the past 2 years.
The way they handled this Merrill acquisition is just plain ridiculous. I don't know if I can ever forgive them.
I also won't even think twice about buying their stock as long as the government is involved.

Ken Lewis should go next. The countrywide and merrill acquisitions were both ridiculous.

I also won't even think twice about buying their stock as long as the government is involved.

You mean you won't buy it as long as they're involved, or you would?

Given the amount of money some of these banks are taking, I feel like the government should be demanding that shareholders and some debtors be wiped out. It's simply not fair that BoA is paying a dividend using bailout money.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: flashbacck

Originally posted by: Lothar
It's good to see that moron John Thain finally resign from BAC.
He should have been ousted months ago. Secretly paying his execs $3-4 billion in bonuses last month, while his company posted a $15 billion loss in the 4th quarter.

BAC has always been my favorite financial company for the past 2 years.
The way they handled this Merrill acquisition is just plain ridiculous. I don't know if I can ever forgive them.
I also won't even think twice about buying their stock as long as the government is involved.

Ken Lewis should go next. The countrywide and merrill acquisitions were both ridiculous.

I also won't even think twice about buying their stock as long as the government is involved.

You mean you won't buy it as long as they're involved, or you would?

Given the amount of money some of these banks are taking, I feel like the government should be demanding that shareholders and some debtors be wiped out. It's simply not fair that BoA is paying a dividend using bailout money.

If you fire Ken Lewis, who will replace him?
There's no one to replace him at this point. That's almost like firing Warren Buffett or Steve Jobs.
Ken Lewis and his predecessor Hugh McColl made BAC to the enterprise that it is today.

I wouldn't touch BAC with a 10ft pole given the dilutive effects of the government's preferred shares and stock option warrants.

They are now paying a 1 cent dividend to all common shareholders. The government meanwhile is getting 8% interest on the $20 billion loan yearly.

 

[flashbacck]

Replacing Ken Lewis isn't like firing Buffett or Jobs. Buffett and Jobs are competent!

They shouldn't be paying any dividend.

 

[her209]

Market is tanking right now.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: her209
Market is tanking right now.

Good.
I want it to tank even more.