***Official*** 2009 Stock Market Thread

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richardycc

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2001
5,719
1
81
move your KFT money into GMCR, keurig is kicking Tassimo's a$$ in the single-serve coffee market.

For those of you that like patent infringement play, check out STSI, same story as RAMBUS...STSI has a patented method of curing tobacco that RJ Reynolds and other tabacco gaints used without paying. do your own DD, and good luck!
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Originally posted by: Lothar
Originally posted by: Naustica
Originally posted by: Azurik
At least my second biggest investment in Kraft (KFT) will announce earnings tomorrow morning and continue its outperformance of the markets. Dairy prices have gone down, but Kraft has maintained their higher prices. Their margins should approve and earn between .43-.44 a share. If it beats that, I'd look for some upside along with a nice dividend.

See, I invest is safer stocks

Kraft is getting beat-up premarket after the earnings release. It's down $3/shr from yesterday's close price. It's my biggest holding so it stings. I'm going to let the price settle and add later.

Missed estimates by a penny they slam the stock for it?...Mr. Market can be so brutal.
Seems to me that it's time to add more shares.

I don't think it's necessary the earnings this quarter that slammed KFT, it's more of their forward guidance.
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Originally posted by: ultimatebob
I wouldn't invest a cent in Rambus. Companies that base their business off of patent trolling usually end up failing when their patent claims are shot down by larger established companies that can demonstrate prior art. Just look at SCO for an example of that.

It's too bad that the courts have already ruled that Rambus is "not even close to being a patent troll" (Judge Whyte from NDCA, the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals, the Supreme Court, Administrative Law Judge of the FTC).

None of the manufacturers have proven prior art and it's been 15 years. In fact, they have posted a $50,000 reward for someone in the field to find prior art to invalidate Rambus' patents. To date, they have found none. Show me prior art regarding dual-edge clocking or flex-phase timing for RAM. The issue here is spoilation, not patent validation.

Hynix is about to get finalized. The larger, more established companies like Intel, AMD, Panasonic, Sony, Fujitsu, Toshiba, Elpida, Qimonda all have licenses with Rambus. Even Samsung who they are suing has a license for certain Rambus' IP like XDR, and was, at one time, licensing Rambus SDRAM and DDR lines until a contract dispute rose over the royalties that should be charged.

Anyway, for those who are wondering, I didn't buy $50,000 more of Rambus this morning. I got into the office too late and after replying to this message, I see that Rambus has basically recovered - probably in light that staying the DDR2 case was Rambus' preference so they can get Hynix certified first.
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Hynix is about to get finalized for Rambus, but Judge Whyte has asked Hynix to meet with Rambus to see if they can come up with something Rambus will be happy with in order to save Hynix the company.

I think the judge realizes that Hynix is going out of business with the way he has to rule. There is no way Hynix can come up with $500m to post a bond if they want to appeal, and they absolutely cannot deal with being banned from producing RAM chips.

This news article today gets it:

The first big DRAMurai casualty, Qimonda, is having a positive effect on lagging memory prices and has raised the spirits on the cash-strapped DRAMurai as the "evil oversupply monster" flinched this week.

The whole situation has been building up over the past couple of years in the DRAM industry and Qimonda is just the tip of the iceberg. But the company's Chapter 11 crusade has spawned a positive side-effect: just after the Chinese New Year, DDR2 (still the bulk of DRAM production) pricing jumped about 25 per cent, according to the DRAM Exchange. This was quickly followed by other memory types that acted like they'd just had a shot of Vodka and Red Bull.

Although this means good news for DRAM makers overall, it still isn't enough to get everyone in the black - not even close. With a year of consolidation and mergers ahead, there is one player in particular that looks stuck in a rut: Hynix.

Apart from its operating and financial woes, Hynix has just had its head handed to it by a district court in the USA. It's been denied a request for a stay on judgement based on Micron's little victory over Rambus just a few weeks ago. Now Hynix is hanging by a thread and waiting (literally) for a telephone call from Rambus with a list of demands. In a worst case scenario, Hynix will go bust.
 

zimu

Diamond Member
Jun 15, 2001
6,210
0
0
i see it now. hynix will get this list, declare bankrupcy, rmbs shares will continue to fall and i'll keep losing money on this stupid sinking ship...
 

Ricochet

Diamond Member
Oct 31, 1999
6,406
20
81
I wouldn't touch RMBS until it tests its low. Even then it would be on pure speculative play. I wouldn't have the heart to invest long term. Too much speculative money has been propping it up. The next time Mr. Market decide to dive, my guess is that a lot of speculative money will be pouring out instead of in.
 

imported_Lothar

Diamond Member
Aug 10, 2006
4,559
1
0
Originally posted by: Azurik
Originally posted by: Lothar
Originally posted by: Naustica
Originally posted by: Azurik
At least my second biggest investment in Kraft (KFT) will announce earnings tomorrow morning and continue its outperformance of the markets. Dairy prices have gone down, but Kraft has maintained their higher prices. Their margins should approve and earn between .43-.44 a share. If it beats that, I'd look for some upside along with a nice dividend.

See, I invest is safer stocks

Kraft is getting beat-up premarket after the earnings release. It's down $3/shr from yesterday's close price. It's my biggest holding so it stings. I'm going to let the price settle and add later.

Missed estimates by a penny they slam the stock for it?...Mr. Market can be so brutal.
Seems to me that it's time to add more shares.

I don't think it's necessary the earnings this quarter that slammed KFT, it's more of their forward guidance.

Still doesn't warrant the slamming.
The revision was due mostly to currency exchange rates.
 

imported_Lothar

Diamond Member
Aug 10, 2006
4,559
1
0
Originally posted by: zimu
i see it now. hynix will get this list, declare bankrupcy, rmbs shares will continue to fall and i'll keep losing money on this stupid sinking ship...

I will say this again...
Get out while you can. Let this be a lesson to you.

For people who held onto RMBS for almost a decade, earnings didn't matter.
For true investors, earnings should matter.

That's how you tell the difference between a speculator and an investor.

Invest in businesses that make sense.
HPQ > RMBS.
Much better tech company with excellent management.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Originally posted by: abovewood
Let's talk about BAC. It fell below $5.
Common gets wiped out?

Something definitely stinks in that name. It has been weak even while other financials were holding. I'm out of the infinite call option gamble (aka BAC common stock). My stop was right below $5. Maybe it will rally now I'm out. But stocks do not lie, people do. I don't like the action in the name and maybe something is coming we don't know about. I'm also out of WFC. I'll watch from the sidelines where it's much safer. Both were trades and I'm not going to let bad trades turn into investments.
 

abovewood

Platinum Member
Oct 9, 1999
2,424
6
81
I am down too much and don't have the energy to jump off this sinking ship.
It feels like it would be easier to go down with it.
 

GTKeeper

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2005
1,118
0
0
Originally posted by: abovewood
I am down too much and don't have the energy to jump off this sinking ship.
It feels like it would be easier to go down with it.

As soon as BAC bought MS I was weary of it.

Think of it this way, the US banking system is essentially insolvent at this point. I would stay away from the financials at this point, unless you are shorting.

People laughed at me when I bought puts on lehman back in March of 2008. I then shorted Sovereign, Citi, and now currently I am shorting HSBC.

I am essentially looking at the macro economic view and then finding the weakest players to short. 2009 will be a deflationary year.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
I dipped my toes back into WFC under $16. I see the risk of the break in the S&P, but I keep thinking we'll see one upside before the fall.
 

Lamont Burns

Platinum Member
Dec 13, 2002
2,837
0
0
Originally posted by: abovewood
I am down too much and don't have the energy to jump off this sinking ship.
It feels like it would be easier to go down with it.

Yes I have a small amount there too. I guess you could say I am longgggggggggg, BAC atm.
 

Lamont Burns

Platinum Member
Dec 13, 2002
2,837
0
0
Originally posted by: Naustica
I dipped my toes back into WFC under $16. I see the risk of the break in the S&P, but I keep thinking we'll see one upside before the fall.

Really think the S&P is destined for 650-700? I've been trading S&P ETFs getting my feet wet so to speak. Been lucky with a fairly steady range so far.
 

neovan

Diamond Member
Mar 8, 2001
4,676
1
81
I'm glad I got out of BAC when it was $37 (bought at $41) but I'm thinking about jumping back in at <$5.

I still think C is in worst shape than BAC.
 

Ushio

Member
Jul 19, 2004
121
0
76
wonder if these will give the stem sector a little boost even before they make it to the vote, or if I'm extremely lucky an executive order first!

Legislation both introduced Feb04
H.R. 872 - To amend the Public Health Service Act to provide for human embryonic stem cell research, to direct the National Institutes of Health to issue guidelines for such stem cell research, and for other purposes

H.R. 877 - To intensify stem cell research showing evidence of substantial clinical benefit to patients, and for other purposes.

also anyone look into AUY? I'm quite tempted to get in and hold for a few months...
 

abovewood

Platinum Member
Oct 9, 1999
2,424
6
81
BAC +13%, GE +15%. Not bad.

I have some USMO from the days when the dividend was $0.65. Now the dividend is $0.25. Not sure if they can keep paying the current rate (10%)
 

Ricochet

Diamond Member
Oct 31, 1999
6,406
20
81
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: ricochet
Picked up USO at $28.18. Betting on oil to rebound.

Be careful, this year we are going to experience deflation.

I've put my stop loss in place. Besides, I feel that there's more upside than downside now that it came up off a 52 week low. Of course a 52 week low means almost absolutely nothing these days.
 

Dear Summer

Golden Member
Sep 30, 2008
1,015
1
71
is there any demand for equity research from investment banks?
are they useful? do individual investors pay money for them?
 

imported_Lothar

Diamond Member
Aug 10, 2006
4,559
1
0
Originally posted by: Dear Summer
is there any demand for equity research from investment banks?
are they useful? do individual investors pay money for them?

There is demand for everything.
No.
Only stupid people do.
 
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