***Official*** 2009 Stock Market Thread

[SSSnail]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...=amuScSLpcjzk&refer=us

May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. agreed to pay a $3.3 million fine and buy back as much as $623.5 million in failed auction-rate securities...

...The $330 billion auction-rate market seized up in February 2008 when the credit crisis prompted banks to stop supporting the periodic auctions at which the long-term securities were bought and sold.

 

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: SSSnail
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...=amuScSLpcjzk&refer=us

May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. agreed to pay a $3.3 million fine and buy back as much as $623.5 million in failed auction-rate securities...

...The $330 billion auction-rate market seized up in February 2008 when the credit crisis prompted banks to stop supporting the periodic auctions at which the long-term securities were bought and sold.

Hmmmm, not sure i understand that exactly.

 

[thepd7]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: thepd7

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
Taxes should not be a consideration when talking about buying and selling stock.

Stupid question. What is the company worth?

I disagree, if you have been holding a stock for ~6-10 months it's a factor. Basically you are losing ~20% of your profit, how could you not consider that?

I'll speak of ivnesting, not speculating.

If you sell only when a stock is overvalued, you are selling when there is a 50% premium. You sell and whatever the tax hit is, so be it. If you wait two months, that 50% premium could be a 0% premium and then it doesn't matter.

Now if you are selling just because a stock is up and you have no idea what the underlying company is worth, then you have other problems.

If it is trading at your calculated intrinsic value, why sell? You should have bought a wonderful company to begin with so why sell without doing so at a premium.

And as another point, Warren Buffett himself has said hat taxes should not be a consideration.

So far this year, I have sold no stocks. I have simply watched my portfolio go up about 30% after watching it drop by 50%.. I could cash out some profits but don't care to. I only bought one stock this year. That would be WFC for $14.19. Wi will hold WFC unless it starts trading at a rediculous premium. And that would be something like $70 within the next year. I could care less if I held it 11.5 months or 12.1. Now, 11.9 months ... maybe I'll wait a few days.

I haven't the cash to buy anything now, but if I could have it would have been BNI for under $60, now $70.

I guess I should conclude this. If you held somethi9ng for 11 months and 3 weeks ... maybe waiting a week makes sense. If you have to wait 1 week to get a tax advantage, it might make sense. If you are waiting 3 months it makes absolutely no sense. You are playing with a double edged sword at that point.

A lot of intelligent talk that means squat in this market that hits extreme highs and lows based on feelings.

 

[abovewood]

I have little money to work with, but did get in on TSRA at 19.84 in AH yesterday and got out at 20.90 in PM today.

Thank you, Azurik and everyone else.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: pravi333
WOOT! congrats guys! whoever got on TSRA!

Azurik! as always delivers! hats off to you!

Congrats on getting in

As predicted, the share price jumped, but IV went wayyy down (back to normal levels).

I sold my June 20's for close to 100% gain at $1.85, bought them at $1.00.

At the same time, because IV being very reasonable now, I bought 75 contracts of Sept 30 calls for $0.55. If it hits, the gain will be much, much more than 100% gain with IV being where it is right now. I also bought a bunch of shares around $20.40.

This news is huge. I expect settlements within 30 days (and probably within 14 days by Motorola). They paid TSRA a handsome sum to be able to lock in a royalty rate should they lose, but it needs to be exercise in 14 days.

IMHO, TSRA will be trading in the 30's this summer and 40's this fall, possibly even 50's.

RMBS is still my favorite stock because of its potential, but TSRA is where I want RMBS to look like - winning big decisions and forcing settlements. They are also a cash cow with no debt.

I :heart: IP companies.

 

[pravi333]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: pravi333
WOOT! congrats guys! whoever got on TSRA!

Azurik! as always delivers! hats off to you!

Congrats on getting in

As predicted, the share price jumped, but IV went wayyy down (back to normal levels).

I sold my June 20's for close to 100% gain at $1.85, bought them at $1.00.

At the same time, because IV being very reasonable now, I bought 75 contracts of Sept 30 calls for $0.55. If it hits, the gain will be much, much more than 100% gain with IV being where it is right now. I also bought a bunch of shares around $20.40.

This news is huge. I expect settlements within 30 days (and probably within 14 days by Motorola). They paid TSRA a handsome sum to be able to lock in a royalty rate should they lose, but it needs to be exercise in 14 days.

IMHO, TSRA will be trading in the 30's this summer and 40's this fall, possibly even 50's.

RMBS is still my favorite stock because of its potential, but TSRA is where I want RMBS to look like - winning big decisions and forcing settlements. They are also a cash cow with no debt.

I :heart: IP companies.

i didnt get in :-(, i am all locked out of my cash. Currently waiting for RMBS to hit mid teens. GERN seems to be doing somewhat well, i think it is being speculated for a buy out.
Mostly i am trying to get out of all my positions in the very near future and be cash strong, so when the market crashes again ( i am hoping it will, since this bull run doesnt seem to have any fundamentals attached to it) i can buy into it.

Also whats IV that you've mentioned?

 

[Slew Foot]

Urrrgh, the june 20 calls on tsra jumped to 3 and then fell back to the mid 1's, its essentially at what i paid for it. Ill hold it for now in hopes of a jump when settlements occur.

 

[SSSnail]

Someone took a crap this morning, possible recovery this afternoon, if not wait a few days. I'm usually on, or off by a few days, but I"m sitting on cash so I don't really care.

 

[pravi333]

Originally posted by: SSSnail
Someone took a crap this morning, possible recovery this afternoon, if not wait a few days. I'm usually on, or off by a few days, but I"m sitting on cash so I don't really care.

i blame it on baby jesus! lol

 

[Slew Foot]

Market overall kinda sucked today, which made possible jumps muted. C is showing relative strength though.

 

[SSSnail]

Originally posted by: pravi333

Originally posted by: SSSnail
Someone took a crap this morning, possible recovery this afternoon, if not wait a few days. I'm usually on, or off by a few days, but I"m sitting on cash so I don't really care.

i blame it on baby jesus! lol

Baby Jesus has been very good to me , but he's not always dead on. Market opened with -150 points, rofl. Like Slew Foot said it hampers the jump, but it will.

 

[ivan2]

grats all! hasn't been in the market these days since i was super busy =(

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Urrrgh, the june 20 calls on tsra jumped to 3 and then fell back to the mid 1's, its essentially at what i paid for it. Ill hold it for now in hopes of a jump when settlements occur.

options premium are a bitch

 

[SSSnail]

Something else on Tessera, it's cooled with solution http://www.dailytech.com/Resea...books/article15198.htm

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: pravi333

Also whats IV that you've mentioned?

IV is implied votility. You can learn about it here, but be forewarned, it is very dry and convoluted: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Implied_volatility

In laymen's terms, option prices get really expensive and falls way out of their real intrinsic value because there's so much activity going on. For instance, if there's a definite binary event coming up for a company that will cause the price to rise/fall dramatically, investors will buy a ton of options on both sides because the event is virtually definite. Once the event passes, the IV falls down because the stock is not expected to swing so wildly.

That might not be the best explanation, but here's a couple dirty examples:

There's a boring stock "X" that never moves. It stays around $10 all the time and nothing is expected near-term. In this case, options are very cheap to buy since no one expects it to move big in either direction. IV is at a low level in this case. All of a sudden, they announce another company is buying them out and the stock soars. Anyone who bought $15 strike options would be up 10,000%.

There's an erratic stock "Y" that moves up and down frequently. It is around $10 right now and either an extremely good or bad event is about to happen. In this case, options are going to be very expensive to buy since everyone is expecting a move in the stock. The stock gets bought out by another company and the stock soars. Since this is "priced" into the options already, you gain 100% on your $15 strikes. A good gain, but not nearly as big as the first example.

 

[pravi333]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: pravi333

Also whats IV that you've mentioned?

IV is implied votility. You can learn about it here, but be forewarned, it is very dry and convoluted: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Implied_volatility

In laymen's terms, option prices get really expensive and falls way out of their real intrinsic value because there's so much activity going on. For instance, if there's a definite binary event coming up for a company that will cause the price to rise/fall dramatically, investors will buy a ton of options on both sides because the event is virtually definite. Once the event passes, the IV falls down because the stock is not expected to swing so wildly.

That might not be the best explanation, but here's a couple dirty examples:

There's a boring stock "X" that never moves. It stays around $10 all the time and nothing is expected near-term. In this case, options are very cheap to buy since no one expects it to move big in either direction. IV is at a low level in this case. All of a sudden, they announce another company is buying them out and the stock soars. Anyone who bought $15 strike options would be up 10,000%.

There's an erratic stock "Y" that moves up and down frequently. It is around $10 right now and either an extremely good or bad event is about to happen. In this case, options are going to be very expensive to buy since everyone is expecting a move in the stock. The stock gets bought out by another company and the stock soars. Since this is "priced" into the options already, you gain 100% on your $15 strikes. A good gain, but not nearly as big as the first example.

Gotcha. Thank you! I still havent worked my way into option trading. I just jumped into stocks last year & have been learning things along the way.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: pravi333

Gotcha. Thank you! I still havent worked my way into option trading. I just jumped into stocks last year & have been learning things along the way.

I would advise against doing options, especially if you are that new. Virtually all options expire worthless. I don't even buy call options too often, unless I know an event is going to hit and want to make a play on that. I NEVER exercise them into shares, just trade them.

The safest options are covered calls and it may be something you want to try out later when you're more experienced. For instance, say you own 100 shares of RMBS at $10. You don't think it's going to go to $12 this month, so instead of buying, you SELL one contract of $12 call options (1 contract = 100 shares). By doing this, you pocket the premium as automatic profit. 2 things can happen in this scenario:

1. Stock stays below $12, the options you sell never gets exercised by the investor that bought them so you pocket the premium as profit.

2. The stock goes over $12, to lets say $20. You would get the gains from RMBS going from $10 to $12, but lost the potential profit from $12 to $20 since someone called your 100 shares away. You also pocket the premium from your the call option you sold.

You're basically earn additional money at the expense of losing out on that huge jump in stock price.

 

[SSSnail]

Silly shorts, can't even bring down C in a down day.

 

[pravi333]

Originally posted by: Azurik

I have learnt about options a lot but need more time before i get into it, also my zecco account doesnt have options as well.

Originally posted by: SSSnail

Silly shorts, can't even bring down C in a down day.

Very true, also there was not much volume traded today on C unlike any other day. Its as though everyone is holding back for some news.

 

[Azurik]

On Pacer
05/14/2009 3963 ORDER by Judge Ronald M. Whyte FILED UNDER SEAL (dhm, COURT STAFF) (Filed on 5/14/2009) (Entered: 05/19/2009)

I don't know what's going on...

 

[pravi333]

Originally posted by: Azurik
On Pacer
05/14/2009 3963 ORDER by Judge Ronald M. Whyte FILED UNDER SEAL (dhm, COURT STAFF) (Filed on 5/14/2009) (Entered: 05/19/2009)

I don't know what's going on...

wonder if one of the companies involved in the case has requested the judge to release the order after a certain time period.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: pravi333

Originally posted by: Azurik
On Pacer
05/14/2009 3963 ORDER by Judge Ronald M. Whyte FILED UNDER SEAL (dhm, COURT STAFF) (Filed on 5/14/2009) (Entered: 05/19/2009)

I don't know what's going on...

wonder if one of the companies involved in the case has requested the judge to release the order after a certain time period.

It could be that both companies have asked the order on the bond be sealed until they both went through it and see what they wanted to be redacted (hidden because of sensitive information).

Or it could be ::gasp:: settlement talks. At the JP Morgan conference in Boston earlier this week, Harold Hughes (CEO of Rambus) sounded extremely confident and happy, along with Satish the CFO. This order came out beneath everyone's eyes, but Harold must have known about it this past Monday when he was in Boston. Why he said, "the ruling is imminent" when it was already out, but sealed is anyone's guess.

It's just interesting to speculate on what exactly is going on.

 

[zimu]

AIG's liddy is retiring: think i should sell of my stock? I see it hovering at 1.68ish but holding.

 

[SSSnail]

Originally posted by: zimu
AIG's liddy is retiring: think i should sell of my stock? I see it hovering at 1.68ish but holding.

If you have profited, sell then get back in, put a trailing on it.

 

[zimu]

Originally posted by: SSSnail

Originally posted by: zimu
AIG's liddy is retiring: think i should sell of my stock? I see it hovering at 1.68ish but holding.

If you have profited, sell then get back in, put a trailing on it.

so you think it's going to drop a fair bit further before it becomes any better?

edit: i'm up 19%