***Official*** 2009 Stock Market Thread

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Azurik
I'm out on a last minute trip to meet a couple of people to discuss another hot stock (lol, I sound like a pump and dumper). This one could be a mimic of TSRA. I'll be back later tomorrow. Glad you guys got in.

Slew Foot, I'm PMing you my address so you can send those beers over!

you guys never heard of a phone!?!?

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: JS80
If they win, what do you expect the win value to be?

If they win, what do you expect the win value to be?[/quote]

Which potential win? The AT suit? That has damages of up to $11 billion dollars. RMBS entire market cap is just barely over $1 billion. If they win that trial outright... then over $100+. This is an important suit. Put it in this way, if John Danforth never filed this suit for Rambus back in 2004, I wouldn't be an investor right now. This puts settlement pressure on all the companies or risk liabilities of enormous proportions. Realistically, I see some of the MM's settlings and some going through the courts... so I'll peg it around $60.

This is all based on certain scenarios happening. Of course, if they win that and get every MM to sign up, Rambus' potential value is $274. I don't see it going up that high, but valuations would have supported that price (I still remember, Lothar)

Now it's up to the courts to do the right thing. If Intel was successful in adopting Rambus back in 1996 (back when Rambus was only in the Nintendo 64), I don't want to even hazard a guess of where it would be now rather than the image the company has in Silicon Valley.

That's another topic though. G'night folks.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
rmbs doesnt have a whole lot of action in the near term, September when the trail starts, November when its done, then dec/jan for a ruling. tsra has people signing contracts now.

Exactly, BUT, if you believe in technicals absent news, RMBS almost has as great a technical picture as TSRA. If the market is willing to participate, RMBS will march to $19 before any of the trials start.

This is my hope, hence the july 15s.

Az, which RMBS leaps are you holding?

13,000 shares, 100 contracts of Jan 2010 $30's, 50 contracts of the Jan 2010 $25's

If they win, what do you expect the win value to be?

Which potential win? The AT suit? That has damages of up to $11 billion dollars. RMBS entire market cap is just barely over $1 billion. If they win that trial outright... then over $100+. This is an important suit. Put it in this way, if John Danforth never filed this suit for Rambus back in 2004, I wouldn't be an investor right now. This puts settlement pressure on all the companies or risk liabilities of enormous proportions. Realistically, I see some of the MM's settlings and some going through the courts... so I'll peg it around $60.

This is all based on certain scenarios happening. Of course, if they win that and get every MM to sign up, Rambus' potential value is $274. I don't see it going up that high, but valuations would have supported that price (I still remember, Lothar)

Now it's up to the courts to do the right thing. If Intel was successful in adopting Rambus back in 1996 (back when Rambus was only in the Nintendo 64), I don't want to even hazard a guess of where it would be now rather than the image the company has in Silicon Valley.

That's another topic though. G'night folks.

How long can these type of suits drag on for? And what % probability do you personally put on it being settled prior to trial?

 

[pravi333]

Azurik! If you're ever to NJ/NYC, dinner is on me! Congrats to everyone that got on TSRA, i am sure no one is exiting right now but congrats anyway!

 

[Dacalo]

Azurik, you are the man. Thanks to you, some options I picked up on Sept 30 is looking great.

 

[gotsmack]

Originally posted by: pravi333
Azurik! If you're ever to NJ/NYC, dinner is on me! Congrats to everyone that got on TSRA, i am sure no one is exiting right now but congrats anyway!

Same Azurik. Hit me up if you're ever in NYC. I'll take you out for a steak.

I'm going to sell my gold holdings to get in on more TSRA and a small position on RMBS.

 

[pravi333]

Interesting day! Is this the start of the pull back? I am hoping for a short term pull back not a long drawn one! I am expecting a 20% pull back on the S & P. Whatever it is, today is not a good day :-( Even gold is getting hurt! where the hell do they put the pulled money!

 

[hiromizu]

Hard pullback. Geithner and 'Nanke should keep their mouths shut.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: pravi333
Interesting day! Is this the start of the pull back? I am hoping for a short term pull back not a long drawn one! I am expecting a 20% pull back on the S & P. Whatever it is, today is not a good day :-( Even gold is getting hurt! where the hell do they put the pulled money!

watch PPT come in last minute and push up futures

 

[Azurik]

People taking some profits off the table... S&P has rallied 6% in 4 trading days.

On a big down day:

TSRA up $2.20.
DNDN up .21 cents.
RMBS only down .08 cents.

Opened 2 new positions:

TIVO
TIVO is doing great so far!

I bought a sizeable position in TIVO right after the opening bell today for $9 and change. Also bought long-term calls with $20 and $25 strikes.

Some background: TIVO sued Echostar and won in 2006. Echostar, while they were appealing the verdict, reverse engineered around TIVO's recording capabilities, but the reverse engineering was still found to infringe TIVO's patents. The judge held another trial on this late last year and last night held Echostar aka DISH Network in contempt for going against court orders.

They are going to pay hefty fines and have been barred from using TIVO's technology within 30 days. Echostar wants a temporary stay on the ban until they appeal it, but it's not definite they get a stay. We should hear on this very soon, and if they don't get a stay, it's settling time or lights out for Echo*. The only thing I'm concerned about is Echos*'s CEO is very arrogant and has been fighting this forever while most of the other companies have settled. Oh well, higher rates for his company.

XLE
Short-term play - bought June $52 calls for a bounce - IMHO, the stock will go back to 55-56, 54 at least.

As always, do your own due diligence. I appreciate the praise and congrats for my recent calls, but please do your research. I'm not here 24/7 and have traded without reporting here before.

 

[pravi333]

Originally posted by: hiromizu
Hard pullback. Geithner and 'Nanke should keep their mouths shut.

also manufacturing results came out and it was not upto expectations. really? who the hell expected manufacturing to go up? geez. You can make money by speculating in this market than investing!

 

[Krueger81]

I may be playing with fire but I bought about 150 GM Stocks. It was only about $100 but we'll see

I also invested in some NAK a while back that' sbeen doing really good. Bought in at $3 and it's up to about $8 a share. debating if I should hold it or sell it

Krueger81

 

[JS80]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TUKFB.X

eff me!!

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Azurik
I'm out on a last minute trip to meet a couple of people to discuss another hot stock (lol, I sound like a pump and dumper). This one could be a mimic of TSRA. I'll be back later tomorrow. Glad you guys got in.

Slew Foot, I'm PMing you my address so you can send those beers over!

well, what's the hot stock tip?

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik
I'm out on a last minute trip to meet a couple of people to discuss another hot stock (lol, I sound like a pump and dumper). This one could be a mimic of TSRA. I'll be back later tomorrow. Glad you guys got in.

Slew Foot, I'm PMing you my address so you can send those beers over!

well, what's the hot stock tip?

You just quoted one of its options! LOL!

A $1,000 put down last night would be worth $23,000 right now.

EDIT to JS80: I don't think it's too late. You just need an appetite for risk. If Echostar is denied a stay (a decision likely by this week/next week), they only have 30 days before they are banned from offering these boxes to customers and have to remove EXISTING boxes. I don't think that's an attractive option for them, to appeal with no stay granted... and appealing will only make paying TIVO that much more than they already owe and put them at a competitive disadvantage to Comcast, DirectTV, etc. who are already paying.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik
I'm out on a last minute trip to meet a couple of people to discuss another hot stock (lol, I sound like a pump and dumper). This one could be a mimic of TSRA. I'll be back later tomorrow. Glad you guys got in.

Slew Foot, I'm PMing you my address so you can send those beers over!

well, what's the hot stock tip?

You just quoted one of its options! LOL!

damnit, it's too late now!

 

[GTKeeper]

Guys, from a technical point of view the market is way overbought at the moment. There had to be a pullback at some point. It wouldn't surprise me if we go 910s on the S&P within the next day or so. I bought some SPY june 93 puts this morning at 2.27, up 10% so far. Will probably sell tomorrow if we have another 1-2%+ down day.

The ADP numbers this morning were not great either. April was revised up and May isn't looking so good.

 

[pravi333]

Originally posted by: Azurik

You just quoted one of its options! LOL!

you mean tsra?

 

[Azurik]

Check this Barron's article for the story, they did a pretty good job:

Tivo Soars, Stock May Rise Further

Excerpt:

THE FIVE-YEAR BATTLE between digital video recording pioneer TiVo (TIVO) and satellite television provider Dish Network (DISH) effectively ended last night. TiVo was granted an award of $103 million dollars by a U.S. district court in East Texas against Dish, the potential for additional damages, and what seems like a pretty clear path to command royalties from Dish and others for years to come...

...But investors probably don't realize how good things could be for TiVo going forward and just how bad they could be for Dish. In fact, TiVo shares could double from here based on royalties it may collect from Dish.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: pravi333

Originally posted by: Azurik

You just quoted one of its options! LOL!

you mean tsra?

No, TIVO. The option call he mention is up 2,300% today.

 

[Demo24]

So, even though that option has gone up a very large amount it might still be a decent buy? I'm guessing with the court decision very soon, and with a high probability of being in Tivo's favor, that it could very well send it up even more?

 

[pravi333]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: pravi333

Originally posted by: Azurik

You just quoted one of its options! LOL!

you mean tsra?

No, TIVO. The option call he mention is up 2,300% today.

oh gotcha. I bought 100 shares of tivo, lets see. I gotta get myself into an discount broker with options trading!

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: pravi333
Interesting day! Is this the start of the pull back? I am hoping for a short term pull back not a long drawn one! I am expecting a 20% pull back on the S & P. Whatever it is, today is not a good day :-( Even gold is getting hurt! where the hell do they put the pulled money!

watch PPT come in last minute and push up futures

lol ding! i was right

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: DEMO24
So, even though that option has gone up a very large amount it might still be a decent buy? I'm guessing with the court decision very soon, and with a high probability of being in Tivo's favor, that it could very well send it up even more?

The stock still has room to run pending the outcome of its war with Echostar. I wouldn't buy that particular option at this point.

Buy shares or get a cheap, far out-of-the-money call to roll the dice.

BTW, I haven't sold any of my TSRA shares or calls yet. Logic tells me to pull some profit out, but the overall picture I see is TSRA blowing past $30 on its way to $35-$40.

Maybe sell and roll them out further, I gotta think about it...

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: JS80
How long can these type of suits drag on for? And what % probability do you personally put on it being settled prior to trial?

The AT suit will end by November with a decision by the jury shortly afterwards (days). Of course, guessing the appeals is another thing. I really doubt all companies will go through with this trial though, I really do.

My guessing on % probability of settlements:

Samsung = 75%
Hynix = 50%
Micron = 5%