Drive's post which I pretty much agree with (someone I knew in the TMF days)
Samsung got a heck of a deal yesterday. $200M plus an inexpensive forward license really shows how much leverage Samsung has in the marketplace. On top of that, Samsung got a pre-settlement price on $200M worth of Rambus stock. Samsung simply bended Rambus to its will.
Despite the super sweatheart nature of the deal, I think it bodes well for Rambus. Samsung has the power to put Rambus technology legitimately and fully into the marketplace. I'm not just referring to DRAM in computers. I am thinking of XDR in televisions. Samsung sells boatloads of televisions and with their recent XDR announcement, I'm sure many of Samsung's flatscreens will contain XDR. I'm also thinking of mobile memory. If Samsung puts its weight behind Rambus technologies, which I think it will, then other companies might also see the benefit.
I have thought for a long time that Elpida has been waiting for Samsung to settle and I still think so. I think Elpida will play follow the leader and want to sign with Rambus. Elpida probably has some lingering doubts about Micron getting off scott free. Yet I think Elpida knows as well as anybody that Judge Robinson will likely get overturned. Elpida also knows that Rambus has the goods on Micron and Hynix in the AT case.
I think the AT trial will be postponed somewhat. I think Judge Kramer will give Micron 4 weeks because of Price's illness and to adjust their strategy now that Samsung isn't involved. Even if this case is delayed much longer than just a month, it isn't all bad. It would be great if spoliation were removed as a factor in this trial by the approximately August CAFC ruling. Of course I would rather have the AT trial sooner rather than later, but there would be a silver lining if things got postponed to later this year.
I have spent some time reading the public ITC documents and I don't have a good feel for Judge Essex's leanings. It is clear that the ITC staff came out strongly in favor of Rambus, not only in validity and infringement, but also in regards to spoliation. If Judge Essex trusts the opinion of the ITC staff, Friday will be a great day for Rambus.
The implications of Judge Essex's ruling can not be over-estimated. If he rules in favor of Rambus and his ruling is upheld by the commission, it is only a matter of time until nVidia settles. It is only a short matter of time if the CAFC doesn't suspend an exclusion order, pending appeal. Rambus could then take the ITC ruling to Judge Illston in federal court. I'm sure she will take the ITC ruling under strong advisement. With the CAFC ruling coming so soon down the pike, that could also be handed directly to Judge Illston. With those two rulings, the federal infringement trial against nVidia will be solved without Judge Illston barely having to lift a finger. Going back to my original point on the ITC, this highly depends upon the ITC staff being respected by Judge Essex.
Once the ITC ruling is in place and stamped by the CAFC, many other companies will see the writing on the wall. There are dozens of non-DRAM companies that will depend on this decision to decide whether to sign with Rambus. I think it could be a watershed event.
I decided to buy some premarket shares. I don't know if the stock will go up or down today, but I think this morning's price presents a good long-term value. I think the rest of 2010 looks quite bright for Rambus.