***Official*** 2010 Stock Market Thread

[Azurik]

You guys posted the same link, LOL!

Here's another news link, this time quotes from the Hynix CEO himself:

Hynix Open to Negotiation with Rambus over Legal Dispute : CEO
http://www.telecomskorea.com/business-8730.html

“If Rambus suggests a reasonable alternative, we are willing to continue negotiations with them,” Hynix CEO Kim Jong-kap told reporters after an investor meeting.

Hynix has been in talks with the technology licensing firm over the dispute on the use of the memory chip technology that Rambus claims to hold the patent to, but there has been “a considerable gap” between the two, he said.

The court ordered Hynix to pay $397 million in compensation and additional royalties to the Los Altos, California-based technology licensing company. Hynix lodged an appeal in April.

“Such issues are always open to settlement. It is just a matter of how much we can narrow the difference,” Kim added. “It depends on what kind of reasonable alternative Rambus can suggest.”

 

[Azurik]

I'll also throw this out there... my thoughts on a Hynix settlement:

The first to settle always gets the best deal. Samsung, the biggest memory manufacturer, bit the bullet and got a sweetheart deal with Rambus. Hynix, the second biggest memory manufacturer, is now on record that they want to settle with Rambus, but they need it to be more reasonable.

Tough shit, Hynix. They, along with Micron, initiated these lawsuits when they refused to settle. They have LOST their infringement trial, and they're on the hook to bear significant damamges in the AT trail with Micron. Without Samsung's pocketbooks sharing the burden, a lost would be devastating to both companies - most likely forcing them into bankruptcy. Elpida will sign with Rambus now that Samsung has, and they had stated in the past that the consolidation in the industry would produce only 2 or 3 survivors.

Although not big as Samsung, I think Hynix will pay more than $900 million. Three reasons:

1. They can no longer be the first to settle.
2. Hynix already owes Rambus $400 million for their loss in the infringement case and has been forced to pay Rambus 4.25% on DRAM sales in the U.S.
3. Rambus is now firmly in control of any settlement negotiations - they already bagged the biggest cow in Samsung and has a good cash war chest.

Hynix wants to settle? Here is what I propose. Pay us $400 million for the infringement case. Pay us another $400 million to get out of the AT case. Pay us $600 million to get a license ($120 million a year for 5 years).

Your total bill comes up to $1.4 billion. And that's being lenient. Pay us or go bankrupt if you want to take everything through the courts. And if you survive, we'll just create technologies with Samsung and make you obsolete eventually anyway.

 

[The-Noid]

Hynix is bankrupt failing to meet the debt/equity swap puts them in "technical bankrupt" under their debt covenants. I wouldn't expect much out of Hynix and bankruptcy court will tear them apart. KR bankruptcy laws and auction is significantly different than in the USA.

You need a probability weighted value to put on a Hynix settlement. .5(0) .25(200M) .15(275M) .05(400M) .05(600M).
Similar to what you would do on each. If you go through every company in the court case you can come up with a total equity value based on the Samsung settlement. Then throw these values into a monte carlo simulation and you can get the PV of each of these cash flows based on the cost of equity of holding RMBS stock in the mean-time.

 

[core2slow]

anyone know why SNE is up lately? Stupid me for dumping it late last year and since then it has jumped a good +$4. Could it be the console war which put them on top over the holiday season? They're coming out with a new Sony Experia X2 and the powerhouse Experia X10 android phone in the coming months and was wondering if there's a solid uptrend here. Appreciate the comments =)

 

[richardycc]

anyone know why SNE is up lately? Stupid me for dumping it late last year and since then it has jumped a good +$4. Could it be the console war which put them on top over the holiday season? They're coming out with a new Sony Experia X2 and the powerhouse Experia X10 android phone in the coming months and was wondering if there's a solid uptrend here. Appreciate the comments =)

Maybe PS3 Slim is selling like hotcakes? I bought 2 of them within the last few months.

 

[Azurik]

Hynix is bankrupt failing to meet the debt/equity swap puts them in "technical bankrupt" under their debt covenants. I wouldn't expect much out of Hynix and bankruptcy court will tear them apart. KR bankruptcy laws and auction is significantly different than in the USA.

You need a probability weighted value to put on a Hynix settlement. .5(0) .25(200M) .15(275M) .05(400M) .05(600M).
Similar to what you would do on each. If you go through every company in the court case you can come up with a total equity value based on the Samsung settlement. Then throw these values into a monte carlo simulation and you can get the PV of each of these cash flows based on the cost of equity of holding RMBS stock in the mean-time.

I think it's a little clearer than that Yoxxy:

1) What Hynix has owed Rambus to date on royalty payments has been put into a Rambus escrow account that they can collect if the appeal goes in their favor. In bankruptcy, Hynix cannot claim this back.

2) The $400 million infringement has been bonded, along with giving Rambus collateral on a Hynix fabrication plant, valued at twice the amount owed. This $400 is safe due to the bond.

3) Rambus has put dozens of companies on notice of infringement, if the big 3 settle or go doo-doo in the way of losing in court, these companies will follow suit and sign before litigation is involved. The AT case will only be a fraction of what Rambus will collect.

 

[KDKPSJ]

So, another postpone, no surprise. No wonder Rambus management decided to settle with Sammy even though it's considered a bad deal for some longs. Just imagine how much RMBS could have dropped today if there was no Sammy settlement. $ 20? $ 18?

 

[core2slow]

Maybe PS3 Slim is selling like hotcakes? I bought 2 of them within the last few months.

yea that's what i meant for the console war, as they beat out the xbox360 over the holiday season. I'm tempted to buy some puts but just don't know how high it'll climb.

 

[richardycc]

the market sux today..my whole portfolio is pretty much in red except GNVC and a few others that I am not supposed to mention on here.

 

[Azurik]

So, another postpone, no surprise. No wonder Rambus management decided to settle with Sammy even though it's considered a bad deal for some longs. Just imagine how much RMBS could have dropped today if there was no Sammy settlement. $ 20? $ 18?

In light of the Samsung settlement and Micron's claims, this isn't bad news. It's more like neutral and expected. He's is asking for a revised witness/evidence list by next week.

I bought more. Tomorrow night is going to be huge.

 

[snoopdoug1]

the market sux today..my whole portfolio is pretty much in red except GNVC and a few others that I am not supposed to mention on here.

lol - "not supposed to mention on here?"

 

[richardycc]

lol - "not supposed to mention on here?"

Some ATOTers made money from my HGSI and GNVC picks that they reciprocate with their own hot tips. I did my own DD on some of them and bought a few. For whatever reason, they don’t want me to mention them on here, so I will respect their wishes.

on the other hand, I bought more ONT at 72cents, I smell a bidding war coming. We should hear some news from GNVC regarding their TNFerade program in patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer.

http://www.asco.org/ASCOv2/Meetings/Abstracts?&vmview=abst_detail_view&confID=72&abstractID=1661

 

[Azurik]

AT Trial to start March 22nd or sooner - but will meet twice a week each week to settle all remaining issues. Judge Kramer says the circumstances, he needs time to figure out what the proper amount of time for the jury - states can't be too long since one of you "guys" already settled.

 

[MrMatt]

I sold my Feb $18 puts I had and bought Feb $21 puts for $0.65 earlier this morning in case an adverse situation arises. Still holding all 13,000 shares.

I don't think Nvidia calls are going to be worth much, even with a win. They're a much bigger company and this result won't affect the stock price as much as it will Rambus'.

You guys and your Rambus. I may just have to look into this company..

 

[MrYogi]

Some ATOTers made money from my HGSI and GNVC picks that they reciprocate with their own hot tips. I did my own DD on some of them and bought a few. For whatever reason, they don’t want me to mention them on here, so I will respect their wishes.

on the other hand, I bought more ONT at 72cents, I smell a bidding war coming. We should hear some news from GNVC regarding their TNFerade program in patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer.

http://www.asco.org/ASCOv2/Meetings/Abstracts?&vmview=abst_detail_view&confID=72&abstractID=1661

May be you should start a Secret ATOT Investment Society (SAIC) and send invitations to only people who offer one or two good picks
I will be first one in line to join the group.

 

[Cal166]

May be you should start a Secret ATOT Investment Society (SAIC) and send invitations to only people who offer one or two good picks
I will be first one in line to join the group.

I think I remember someone started or tried to start a group like that. Don't know whatever happen to it but I am in.

 

[MrYogi]

I think I remember someone started or tried to start a group like that. Don't know whatever happen to it but I am in.

We will make Azurik - the president and richardycc - the vice president.

 

[Blueychan]

We will make Azurik - the president and richardycc - the vice president.

What's wrong with this thread? Why do we have to start an elite group? ... so in order to get into that group, I just have to give you a few picks right? Any picks right?

 

[Jassi]

What's wrong with this thread? Why do we have to start an elite group? ... so in order to get into that group, I just have to give you a few picks right? Any picks right?

I agree. I've been lurking in this thread and I've been doing my own DD but I haven't bit on RMBS (Thought about it when it hit 20.xx and didn't bite). FWIW, I'd be happy to share any tips I have if this thread stays open.

 

[Cal166]

I agree. I've been lurking in this thread and I've been doing my own DD but I haven't bit on RMBS (Thought about it when it hit 20.xx and didn't bite). FWIW, I'd be happy to share any tips I have if this thread stays open.

I guess that's the reason why the elite group never form. I am happy with this thread, I love reading others opinion and contribute where I can.

 

[snoopdoug1]

I guess that's the reason why the elite group never form. I am happy with this thread, I love reading others opinion and contribute where I can.

I completely agree. On a side point, I like your sig

 

[richardycc]

yeah whatever happened to that thread where bunch of atoters wanted to form a business and split the profits? Anyway, no secret elitist group is forming here. I did think about opening a covestor account, but they have bunch of requirements one has to meet, and with their high fees I have to have a lot of followers to make money. If I do have a lot of followers, I am under pressure to perform, kinda like someone else pay for your buy-in at a poker tournament, so I didn't do it. Anyone has an account there or know of another website like that?

you can read more about how covestor works:
http://www.covestor.com/how/

 

[IEC]

Feel like GNVC has gone up too much, too fast. Sold out at $2.54. I think the first time I made a 50% realized profit...

 

[Azurik]

RMBS option volatility is down to 63 this month, after the trial delay removes chances of up or down spikes.

That's perfect because options are now more based on time remaining and intrinsic value. With a binary event today, something is bound to happen. I can't picture a "neutral" reaction.

So, this is how I'm playing it:

13,000 shares long
Feb $26 calls at an average price of $0.65
Feb $21 puts at an average price of $0.665

RMBS currently trading a bit over $23 - we'll see how this works out.

 

[Cal166]

Feel like GNVC has gone up too much, too fast. Sold out at $2.54. I think the first time I made a 50% realized profit...

Just insane!