***Official*** 2010 Stock Market Thread

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HopJokey

Platinum Member
May 6, 2005
2,110
0
0
Now everyone who had their shares stolen will have to buy in higher. Stop losses are killer sometimes.

Is there a good reason to have stop losses on such volatile stocks to begin with? (Not a rhetorical question)
 

marketquotes

Member
Jul 21, 2009
28
0
0
Wow reminded me of the DNDN bounce from 22 to 13 back to 22.

I sent a FOIA request to SEC about information regarding that particular bear raid, I was denied pending a possible ongoing criminal investigation. Hope something comes out of that but I doubt it.
 

lothar

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2000
6,674
7
76
So you don't think the lawsuit is valid at all? In my opinion, they stand to gain a bit from it.

They do have a deal with Verisign that was recently publicized.

Just because they don't have something out for consumption doesn't mean that they are not valuable. If you take that stance, might as well rule out all pharmas w/o any current commercial offerings.

The way I see it, if a company's balance sheet is good enough for me along with a product or moat that makes sense to go with it, I invest in it.
If they win a lawsuit, more value for me because that means my price target is undervalued and I endup earning more profit. If they lose a lawsuit it costs me nothing because I didn't base my initial investment based on them winning one.

You on the other hand are saying if they win, they will earn tons of money.
If they lose the case, does your investment endup being worth it? In this case you based your intial investment decision based on them winning the lawsuit.

Worst case scenario:
My case at worst is an opportunity cost (which isn't an actual loss). Yours is an actual loss which could even possibly lead to bankruptcy of the firm if they're projecting future revenue based on them winning a suit in court.

The question you have to ask yourself is:
Is this company worth investing without taking a lawsuit into account?

The same can be said for Biotech companies. Not every drug gets approved by the FDA.
Hundreds of biotech companies have gone bankrupt the past 4 years if not much more than that. For every drug that gets approved, hundreds(if not thousands!) fail.
I don't pay so much attention to them unless I'm actually there witnessing the study myself or I have a confidant who is involved in the study.
Ex: I first found out about GILD when I was doing my clinicals at a hospital as a student and saw 1st hand results of their clinical trials before they were ever published on Bloomberg or PubMed.
 

lothar

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2000
6,674
7
76
investment is a funny thing. some people will only stick with companies with strong balance sheets, some will only buy penny stocks, you have all kinds in between. Like one of my coworkers, he'd only invest in risky borderline scammy .OB or pink sheets. I tried to talk him into GNVC when it was back down to ~$1.70, of course he didn't listen. I love undervalued stocks, turnaround stories, bottom fisher type of stocks, that's why I love under $5 stocks. I could probably do ok if I just put my money in BRK.A and forget about it for years, but that's just not my style.

One can bottomfish if their business makes sense. Nothing wrong with that.
ACF, HTZ, WFC, AXP, SHLD are an example of turnaround.

I look at the 52week low stocks on WSJ all the time. That's my favorite section in the entire newspaper!
ACF was on there for weeks if not months.

Probably? Understatement of the year.
I'm not quite sure why people continue to dump money into S&P 500 Index funds when they can just buy BRK.A, BRK.B, or FAIRX and outperform the market while sleeping. Makes zero sense.
 

HopJokey

Platinum Member
May 6, 2005
2,110
0
0
One can bottomfish if their business makes sense. Nothing wrong with that.
ACF, HTZ, WFC, AXP, SHLD are an example of turnaround.

I look at the 52week low stocks on WSJ all the time. That's my favorite section in the entire newspaper!
ACF was on there for weeks if not months.

Probably? Understatement of the year.
I'm not quite sure why people continue to dump money into S&P 500 Index funds when they can just buy BRK.A, BRK.B, or FAIRX and outperform the market while sleeping. Makes zero sense.

Nice, I never even heard of the FAIRX fund until now. Solid at a quick glance.
 

Cal166

Diamond Member
May 6, 2000
5,081
8
81
Or DNDN is pulling up the biotechs. It may also be a runup in anticipation of the 184th data (which could be presented soon). I'm debating if I sell some now to rebuy later. The thing seems to move up and down like crazy... we'll see.

Whatever it is, I am liking it a lot. Just hope it won't be like the last time when it went all 52week high and back to 1.50.
 

lothar

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2000
6,674
7
76
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richardycc

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2001
5,719
1
81
FAIRX is the best fund there is run by Bruce Berkowitz.
Search the forums for FAIRX and you'll see I've been posting about him and his fund for more than 2 years.
Here you go...
Search "FAIRX": http://forums.anandtech.com/search.php?searchid=151741
Search "Berkowitz": http://forums.anandtech.com/search.php?searchid=151744

nice, I am also doing some DD on FAIRX, looks like Berkowitz bought a lot of GGP unsecured debt awhile ago, are those debt belong to FAIRX or another fund owned by Berkowitz? This could be another way to play GGP.

I haven't done any DD lately, so much to research, so little time, and I will be on vacation next week...
 

Jassi

Diamond Member
Sep 8, 2004
3,296
0
0
In for a handful of shares of VHC at 5.5 (set up a limit order in the morning just for kicks). Funny thing is, I'm already up and its kicking my ETFC gains

I love the brokerage but ETFC is the worst stock I own (in terms of taking its shareholders over a barrel).

Edit: NVM, the trade just executed and the "gains" are due to the lag in reporting PPS. No idea what the real time price is at the moment. I hate AMEX.
Edit 2: WTF? Did the PPS crash just enough to fill my measly order? Its a sign!
 
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PeeluckyDuckee

Diamond Member
Feb 21, 2001
4,464
0
0
What happens if a company gets delisted off of the stock market because it's been under $1.00 for 30days, is there a chance it will be relisted later? And what happens to the stocks held by shareholders, are they now worthless?

What a rollercoaster ride for VHC owners today lol , sucks if you set a stop loss limit.
 

lothar

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2000
6,674
7
76
nice, I am also doing some DD on FAIRX, looks like Berkowitz bought a lot of GGP unsecured debt awhile ago, are those debt belong to FAIRX or another fund owned by Berkowitz? This could be another way to play GGP.

I haven't done any DD lately, so much to research, so little time, and I will be on vacation next week...

When I said"...is the best fund there is run by Bruce Berkowitz", I meant he runs the best fund out there. I didn't mean to say he runs multiple funds(he does, but FOCIX which was just started only 3 months ago is a pittance compared to FAIRX)

Those debts belong to FAIRX.
Berkowitz is very special in doing those kind of things.

Earlier this decade, he bought bonds in a company which led to him getting TONS of LUK stock at and below bookvalue(If you know the history of LUK, you'd know they rarely trade below 1.5-2x book) because LUK acquired them.

He bought ACF bonds and converted most to common. Both he and LUK own more than 50% of ACF and are members of the board.
He bought HTZ bonds and converted most to common when everyone was running away from the company's bonds and stock because they couldn't recieve funding.
He bought GGP bonds and is looking to convert them to $8/share in common.

Berkowitz so far has purchased over $500 million worth of General Growth Properties (GGWPQ) unsecured debt, ~$394 million worth of General Growth convertible bonds, a $110 million tranche loan, and $94 million worth of Rouse bonds. In all, General Growth position makes up over 5% of Fairholme's portfolio.
Fact: Berkowitz is the largest unsecured debt holder of GGP.

http://www.fairholmefunds.com
Their website looks boring(typical of Berkshire Hathaway and Leucadia) and the design/intro hasn't been updated in 4-5 years, but still has important information.
 

snoopdoug1

Platinum Member
Jan 8, 2002
2,164
0
76
Whatever it is, I am liking it a lot. Just hope it won't be like the last time when it went all 52week high and back to 1.50.

Agreed. I'm thinking about taking some profits next week. Best I can tell, the 184th data shouldn't be out for another few weeks. I wonder if we'll retreat back...
 

HopJokey

Platinum Member
May 6, 2005
2,110
0
0
When I said"...is the best fund there is run by Bruce Berkowitz", I meant he runs the best fund out there. I didn't mean to say he runs multiple funds(he does, but FOCIX which was just started only 3 months ago is a pittance compared to FAIRX)

Those debts belong to FAIRX.
Berkowitz is very special in doing those kind of things.

Earlier this decade, he bought bonds in a company which led to him getting TONS of LUK stock at and below bookvalue(If you know the history of LUK, you'd know they rarely trade below 1.5-2x book) because LUK acquired them.

He bought ACF bonds and converted most to common. Both he and LUK own more than 50% of ACF and are members of the board.
He bought HTZ bonds and converted most to common when everyone was running away from the company's bonds and stock because they couldn't recieve funding.
He bought GGP bonds and is looking to convert them to $8/share in common.

Berkowitz so far has purchased over $500 million worth of General Growth Properties (GGWPQ) unsecured debt, ~$394 million worth of General Growth convertible bonds, a $110 million tranche loan, and $94 million worth of Rouse bonds. In all, General Growth position makes up over 5% of Fairholme's portfolio.
Fact: Berkowitz is the largest unsecured debt holder of GGP.

http://www.fairholmefunds.com
Their website looks boring(typical of Berkshire Hathaway and Leucadia) and the design/intro hasn't been updated in 4-5 years, but still has important information.

Yep this is what I gleaned doing some research on FAIRX.

What is the bear case against it? The fund is rather large now, any chance Berkowitz closes the fund to new investors in the near future?
 

lothar

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2000
6,674
7
76
Yep this is what I gleaned doing some research on FAIRX.

What is the bear case against it? The fund is rather large now, any chance Berkowitz closes the fund to new investors in the near future?

I'm not sure what you mean by your 1st question. Are you talking about the fund(FAIRX) or GGP?

That's certainly a possibility.
Before, the minimum contribution was only $2,500. They raised it to $10,000 in December last year for new investors.
I completely support the move because it helps keep the fund's total expense ratio lower for all investors. Smaller accounts are more costly for fund firms than bigger ones.
In fact, I wouldn't mind if they increased it to $25,000.

Only 1% expense ratio for top tier performance? Sweet deal.
Most actively managed funds charge 2% expense and they perform much worse on average(85% of fund managers can't beat the S&P 500 Index or something like that).
Most hedge funds charge 2% expense and an extra 20% on profits and perform much worse even before their extra 20% profit tax is taken into account.
 

HopJokey

Platinum Member
May 6, 2005
2,110
0
0
I'm not sure what you mean by your 1st question. Are you talking about the fund(FAIRX) or GGP?

That's certainly a possibility.
Before, the minimum contribution was only $2,500. They raised it to $10,000 in December last year for new investors.
I completely support the move because it helps keep the fund's total expense ratio lower for all investors. Smaller accounts are more costly for fund firms than bigger ones.
In fact, I wouldn't mind if they increased it to $25,000.

Only 1% expense ratio for top tier performance? Sweet deal.
Most actively managed funds charge 2% expense and they perform much worse on average(85% of fund managers can't beat the S&P 500 Index or something like that).
Most hedge funds charge 2% expense and an extra 20% on profits and perform much worse even before their extra 20% profit tax is taken into account.

FAIRX specifically I was wondering what the risks were moving forward for investing in such a fund. I'm wondering how long Bruce can continue to dominate the S&P 500 like that. The first 9+ years of the fund have been spectacular.

Yep, one of the first things I noticed was the lowish expense ratio for a fund of it's kind. That's awesome.
 

Regs

Lifer
Aug 9, 2002
16,665
21
81
Whatever it is, I am liking it a lot. Just hope it won't be like the last time when it went all 52week high and back to 1.50.

What difference does it make if you are in it for long? I hope it does go down to 1.50 before the reports come out so I can buy more.
 

Jassi

Diamond Member
Sep 8, 2004
3,296
0
0
First of all, de-listing isn't automatic, you get a warning after 30 days. A company can petition the exchange for leniency or the exchange (like last year) can decide to waive this requirement in a bear market. If the company's stock is eventually de-listed, it should trade OTC (Over the counter). The company can then work with the exchange to meet all of the requirements to re-list.


What happens if a company gets delisted off of the stock market because it's been under $1.00 for 30days, is there a chance it will be relisted later? And what happens to the stocks held by shareholders, are they now worthless?

What a rollercoaster ride for VHC owners today lol , sucks if you set a stop loss limit.
 

destrekor

Lifer
Nov 18, 2005
28,799
359
126
hey big players, I need a little help here.

How the hell should I play CTIC? FDA approval of CTI's NDA is still a little while away, but the FDA just completed a drug manufacturer facility approval, something they had scheduled a while back.

The stock jumped quite a bit today, and I've been itching to get back into this stock after I dumped it following the previous major crash. I figure this stock is going to continue being an epic rollercoaster until the FDA decision, but determining the best entry and exit points with such a volatile stock is impossible with my little experience.

This has been one of my favorite stocks to follow because there is a ton of potential, and I want to jump in early but not if it's at a temporary peak.

I mean, it's good news this morning, but to me doesn't hint at all about the FDAs intentions, not when they previously voiced some serious concerns just a few weeks back.
 

HopJokey

Platinum Member
May 6, 2005
2,110
0
0
hey big players, I need a little help here.

How the hell should I play CTIC? FDA approval of CTI's NDA is still a little while away, but the FDA just completed a drug manufacturer facility approval, something they had scheduled a while back.

The stock jumped quite a bit today, and I've been itching to get back into this stock after I dumped it following the previous major crash. I figure this stock is going to continue being an epic rollercoaster until the FDA decision, but determining the best entry and exit points with such a volatile stock is impossible with my little experience.

This has been one of my favorite stocks to follow because there is a ton of potential, and I want to jump in early but not if it's at a temporary peak.

I mean, it's good news this morning, but to me doesn't hint at all about the FDAs intentions, not when they previously voiced some serious concerns just a few weeks back.

Tough one. I'm not a big player, but if you truly believe in the long term prospects of the company, start out with a small position and then as more information is available over time you may decide to increase the investment (add on dips if your investment thesis about the company has not changed, add on upswings if your investment thesis about the company was undervalued).
 

iversonyin

Diamond Member
Aug 12, 2004
3,303
0
76
How are you guys valuing RMBS? I'm wondering.

The company total asset is $555 mil. The market value is trading at $2 bil - according to Yahoo Finance.

The most Free Cash Flow it squeezes is $40 mil a year.

So I'm guessing the patent and royalties they are going to make from it is going to worth north of $2 billions? Or else, the company is worth $400-500 mils at best.

(numbers are rounded for argument sake.)
 

HopJokey

Platinum Member
May 6, 2005
2,110
0
0
How are you guys valuing RMBS? I'm wondering.

The company total asset is $555 mil. The market value is trading at $2 bil - according to Yahoo Finance.

The most Free Cash Flow it squeezes is $40 mil a year.

So I'm guessing the patent and royalties they are going to make from it is going to worth north of $2 billions? Or else, the company is worth $400-500 mils at best.

(numbers are rounded for argument sake.)

Interesting. I believe the investment thesis for RMBS, like you mentioned is the ramifications of winning lawsuits/settling/licensing their technology/patents. Right now their revenues are at 113Mil Annually. With them winning a few lawsuits, that allows them to increase their revs a lot more with royalties and such. Maybe even 3-5X (maybe more).

Azurik would definitely (understatement of the year) know more about RMBS's potential and forward valuation.
 

iversonyin

Diamond Member
Aug 12, 2004
3,303
0
76
Interesting. I believe the investment thesis for RMBS, like you mentioned is the ramifications of winning lawsuits/settling/licensing their technology/patents. Right now their revenues are at 113Mil Annually. With them winning a few lawsuits, that allows them to increase their revs a lot more with royalties and such. Maybe even 3-5X (maybe more).

Azurik would definitely (understatement of the year) know more about RMBS's potential and forward valuation.

The company is then trading at 20x sales - which is ridiculous already. Assuming they have 100% winning the lawsuit and it jump 5x in revenue. Still, the stock will then trade at 4-5x sales - a reasonable measure. So how much upside would it have? I don't suppose the thing will trade at 20x sales when they do win the lawsuit.

Apple is trading at 200 bil and rack up roughly 40 bil last year in sales. So 5x sales.
 
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Sep 29, 2004
18,665
67
91
Cool I'll check it out. China plays scare me a bit due to not totally trusting their numbers all the time. I'll do some DD on it.

Because of the margin of safety, I bought it. But trying to find out any good information on this one is admitadly hard. I have no idea what the copmapny's business model is. I know what they do based on a one paragraph summary. I only lept because of the free cash flow numbers whcih lead me to beleice that it is a sustainable busienss for atleast a few years.

As for current assets, I did not discount them. I also don't know anything aobut their debt structure even thoguh it is something that should be in the 10-Ks and 10-Qs.

For kicks, I did check short interest and it is only 1% which is pretty normal for even good companies (WFC for example)

At worse, reseach will only teach us something


PS: For what it is worth there is anoth NCAV play I am after which is really a stunning opportunity. Problem is that it doesn't have much volume. 1000 shares in one day is normal, on days that it actually trades. I've simply been trying to buy some shares for about a month now and it's a no go simply due to liquidity issues. After I buy it or the opportunity disappears, I'll let everyone in on it. Problem for me now is that I don't need more competition in terms of buying.
 
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